Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season discussion: Two signings. Rinse, Repeat add 1.

[Discoverer]

I think the system works fine, entry level, then you get 3 arb years which should be based on your performance, not your famous name.

So in your opinion he should have asked for the moon after his 2021 year? Why didn't he?

I think the system works well. He could have asked for more, he didnt, and then he slipped in performance in the next two years, and yet he got paid a lot more?

The arbitration system is ENTIRELY based on performance. The idea is that you get closer to fair value as you go through the process (approximately 40%/60%/80%), so the salary is going to go up even if the player doesn't get better.

He got $7.9 million in 2022. As arbitration goes, that IS asking for the moon.

 

[GreytWun]

Played every home game that season in a minor league park. I've given up on him ever being that again.

He'll be a good not great player

He's only 24 years old.

 

[mikeyz]

Sure thing. But just so we’re clear, I didn’t say they will. I’m clarifying why they’re projected to finish as a WC1 since many like you might think it’s only because of pitching.

And that’s not a “if everyone hits their 90th percentile forecast” type of projection.

The Dodgers, Braves, Rays, O's, Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Astros, Mariners, Phillies, Cubs and Reds all have better offenses then the Jays do and that's just off the top of my head.

 

[Ale Brew]

He's only 24 years old.

Most guys haven’t made the big leagues at his age. People forget. I do worry about his weight fluctuations, but the guy could still turn into a perennial MVP candidate and HOFer.

 

[Discoverer]

Most guys haven’t made the big leagues at his age. People forget. I do worry about his weight fluctuations, but the guy could still turn into a perennial MVP candidate and HOFer.

Yeah, teams have guys his age on their prospect lists. At his age, Judge had a .608 OPS with 4 career HR and a nearly 50% K rate.

 

[Eyedea]

The Dodgers, Braves, Rays, O's, Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Astros, Mariners, Phillies, Cubs and Reds all have better offenses then the Jays do and that's just off the top of my head.

Just because a team scored more than the Jays last year doesn’t automatically make them a better offense in 2024.

Jays were top 10 in wRC+ last year and would’ve easily been a top ten team in runs scored if they could cash in runners at home.

 

[ACC1224]

Might be time to get those ears checked.

 

[MK78]

The arbitration system is ENTIRELY based on performance. The idea is that you get closer to fair value as you go through the process (approximately 40%/60%/80%), so the salary is going to go up even if the player doesn't get better.

He got $7.9 million in 2022. As arbitration goes, that IS asking for the moon.

So he got the moon after the 48 homer year, but then he got jupiter and mars after being worse the next 2 years?

how is it entirely based on performance exactly?

 

[Ale Brew]

So he got the moon after the 48 homer year, but then he got jupiter and mars after being worse the next 2 years?

how is it entirely based on performance exactly?

The system is built to keep salaries down for young players. Salaries go up with service time, like in most unionized environments. That’s just how it works.

 

[mikeyz]

Just because a team scored more than the Jays last year doesn’t automatically make them a better offense in 2024.

Jays were top 10 in wRC+ last year and would’ve easily been a top ten team in runs scored if they could cash in runners at home.

Lol. Dude. Have you seen what the Jays have done in this winter's offseason? Or should I say "Not done"? Their offense is arguably even worse then last year.

They lost Merrifield, Belt and Chapman and replaced them with Turner and IKF!!!! LMFAO. A guy who's going to turn 40 this year and a guy who's never hit more then 8 HR's in a season.

Look. I understand fans trying to find positives with their teams when a new season comes around. But let's be honest here. Other than their starting rotation which is still IMO one of the best in the league, when it comes to their batting lineup. I really don't see ANYTHING to be hopeful or positive about.

 

[canucksfan]

Lol. Dude. Have you seen what the Jays have done in this winter's offseason? Or should I say "Not done"? Their offense is arguably even worse then last year.

They lost Merrifield, Belt and Chapman and replaced them with Turner and IKF!!!! LMFAO. A guy who's going to turn 40 this year and a guy who's never hit more then 8 HR's in a season.

Look. I understand fans trying to find positives with their teams when a new season comes around. But let's be honest here. Other than their starting rotation which is still IMO one of the best in the league, when it comes to their batting lineup. I really don't see ANYTHING to be hopeful or positive about.

Jays need to add another bat. However, Davis can easily replace Whit’s production. Chapman was awful after April with a 84wRC. IKF could equal that. Turner should be able to replace Belt’s production although his age does concern me.

This also doesn’t count increased production from players who had down years. Springer might be the one who might not improve. Improvement from Vladdy, Kirk, and a healthy Jansen would be a huge plus.

 

[dredeye]

Per SN, Vladdy won (as he should have)

Why should he have?

Is that the same one that lost her case in court? If so it was the correct decision

 

[Bjindaho]

Why should he have?


Is that the same one that lost her case in court? If so it was the correct decision

After Blue Jays, Guerrero Jr. go to arbitration, one question lingers: Why?

Even if they’d beaten Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — and the Toronto Blue Jays did not, as arbitrators awarded the all-star first baseman’s ask of $19.9 million rather than the club’s $18.05 million offer — the same pivotal question would have lingered: What was the point of that?

www.sportsnet.ca

He should have because its a rigid system that had already created a comparable for this year. Taking him to arb despite his number being below his best comp is stupid (since the Jays couldn't win based on the process).

As for your second question, the judge ruled that Bauer didn't commit sexual assault because the defendent had rough intercourse with him and agreed to have intercourse again (completely ignoring that he broke her skull and knocked her unconscious the second time).

 

[Eyedea]

Lol. Dude. Have you seen what the Jays have done in this winter's offseason? Or should I say "Not done"? Their offense is arguably even worse then last year.

They lost Merrifield, Belt and Chapman and replaced them with Turner and IKF!!!! LMFAO. A guy who's going to turn 40 this year and a guy who's never hit more then 8 HR's in a season.

Look. I understand fans trying to find positives with their teams when a new season comes around. But let's be honest here. Other than their starting rotation which is still IMO one of the best in the league, when it comes to their batting lineup. I really don't see ANYTHING to be hopeful or positive about.

So Belt was the only significant bat lost? And they can’t expect internal improvement from Vlad, Springer, Kirk, Varsho?

I’m not trying to find positives. I’m simply connecting the dots for you because you don’t understand why projections are bullish on the Jays offence. They were inconsistent last year, but that doesn’t mean they have to be this year. It’s about hitting their 50+ percentile projections, which many of them failed to do last season. All of it is built into the projections. Their failures, their successes, it’s not as simple as them being bad last year so they’re going to be worse the next.

 

[Nineteen67]

So Belt was the only significant bat lost? And they can’t expect internal improvement from Vlad, Springer, Kirk, Varsho?

I’m not trying to find positives. I’m simply connecting the dots for you because you don’t understand why projections are bullish on the Jays offence. They were inconsistent last year, but that doesn’t mean they have to be this year. It’s about hitting their 50+ percentile projections, which many of them failed to do last season. All of it is built into the projections. Their failures, their successes, it’s not as simple as them being bad last year so they’re going to be worse the next.

If Varsho hits he becomes a fan favourite, he’s everything Toronto loves or used to love.

Kirk - hit more doubles so they don’t need two hits score him

Flop has to a Flip year if anything is going to work.

 

[Discoverer]

The American League ZiPS Projected Standings Ahead of Spring Training

These are not the final preseason projections. Rather, they’re the best expression of how ZiPS sees the American League right now.

blogs.fangraphs.com

ZiPS projects two AL teams (Baltimore and Houston) to be better than the Jays this year. They're just trying to be positive.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Puckstuff]

I would have taken Bellinger over the trio we’re paying 26.5 m/year to in Kiermaier, IKF and Yariel. But obviously it doesn’t sound like Bellinger would have done that.

 

[LaP]

If Varsho hits he becomes a fan favourite, he’s everything Toronto loves or used to love.

Kirk - hit more doubles so they don’t need two hits score him

Flop has to a Flip year if anything is going to work.

Two? More like three if they are all singles. Takes one hit to move him to 2nd. Another to move him to 3rd. And another one to score. Important to note that he wont score from 3rd on a sac unless it's almost an HR so needs a 3rd hit to make him score from 3rd. And honestly that's the main problem with Kirk. He got to find some power (like you said doubles) or get slightly faster on base. He's like probably one of the 10 slowest guys i have ever watched play baseball and hit without power. That's a huge issue with him imo.

 

[landy92mack29]

Kirk makes Frank Thomas and Bengie Molina look like Rickey Henderson.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Two? More like three if they are all singles. Takes one hit to move him to 2nd. Another to move him to 3rd. And another one to score. Important to note that he wont score from 3rd on a sac unless it's almost an HR so needs a 3rd hit to make him score from 3rd. And honestly that's the main problem with Kirk. He got to find some power (like you said doubles) or get slightly faster on base. He's like probably one of the 10 slowest guys i have ever watched play baseball and hit without power. That's a huge issue with him imo.

Exactly. A very slow runner like that is useless if he doesn’t mash. Kirky hitting singles or walking, does us no good. He needs to find that power stroke pronto

 

[GoonieFace]

Kirk looks to have shed some pounds, so maybe he adds a little speed. I think he will regain his form from 2 seasons ago.

 

[Nineteen67]

Kirk makes Frank Thomas and Bengie Molina look like Rickey Henderson.

The Molinas werent fast but I don’t remember them being a hindrance on the bases. Yadi was so good it didn’t matter.

Defensively Kirk is adequate, but it’s like they’re playing with 8 1/2 men. As long as he’s just hitting singles, teams will pitch to him.

 

[LaP]

Exactly. A very slow runner like that is useless if he doesn’t mash. Kirky hitting singles or walking, does us no good. He needs to find that power stroke pronto

Having Kirk on base can actually be a deterrent. Let's just say KK hits behind him and there's one out. Kirk hits a single. KK hits a single. So you have Kirk at 2nd and KK at 1st. The next guy hits a single. So now you have the base loaded instead of having 1 run and KK at 3rd with decent speed able to score on most sac fly and also the possibility of the guy at first to steal the 2nd base to avoid a double play next.

 

[Discoverer]

The Molinas werent fast but I don’t remember them being a hindrance on the bases. Yadi was so good it didn’t matter.

Defensively Kirk is adequate, but it’s like they’re playing with 8 1/2 men. As long as he’s just hitting singles, teams will pitch to him.

I would be absolutely shocked if Kirk is slower than Bengie Molina was.