Observations XXVII

Should a moderator become involved and direct this thread to true Observations, X's and O's ?


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drwpreds

Registered User
Mar 19, 2012
7,879
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Birmingham
A few thoughts (long):

There isn’t much left you can say after that unbelievable finish. I mean, the puck was still behind our net with a little over 1 second showing on the clock. The odds of us scoring at that exact moment had to be about a million to one. What is interesting is that was almost the exact same thing that happened to us in the Vegas loss earlier in the season. Vegas tied the game at the buzzer and won in OT. Amazing that there have been 2 games like that in one building the same season. (And we also had the Halloween Calgary loss where they scored in OT with 2 seconds left)

Granlund is getting all the love today, and completely deserved and justified. But that winning goal was all Forsberg. The goal never happens without his incredible play behind the net. I honestly don’t think Forsberg is playing quite as bad as many are making it out to be. Also made a game winning play on the late St Louis win a couple of weeks ago when Turris scored the GWG. He just needs to get a couple of goals to go in and I think he will be fine.

I honestly think had we lost that game 3-2 and the way it happened- that our season may very well have gone down the drain. To suffer another gut punch of a loss like that would have been hard to recover from.

Can anyone remember the last time we tied a game late with the goalie pulled?- I can’t remember the last time- I think last night may have been the first time all season. Anyone remember the last time we did it?

Hard to believe, but we are now actually 5-1 in our last 6 home games.

This is another one that blows my mind, but right now the Preds are just 6 points from being a top 10 team in league. And 9 points from being top 5. Just shows again how thin the line is from top to bottom in the NHL. No other league has that kind of parity, and it’s the major reason why once you get in the playoffs anything can happen.

This is kind of crazy, but 11 of our last 12 wins have been by one goal. The only exception was the 5-0 NYI win. We had 9 wins by 2+ goals in October/November. Have only had 7 since then.

Finally, I don’t mean to be a party pooper or be too negative after a great win, but I am still pretty concerned about our play. We are 3-0 on this homestand but I don’t think we have played a really good, complete game in any of them. And in fact, we have been flat out bad for large stretches in all 3 games. For over 2 ½ periods last night that was flat out not a good game by the Preds. We were hemmed in our zone for large stretches, gave up a ton of odd man rushes, and were outshot, and out chanced. For the game, according to NatStatTrick, the scoring chances last night were 32-18 Flames and the High Danger Chances were 17-9 Flames. That is bad- completely lopsided. The only reason we had a chance to win that game late was Juuse Saros. And that has been a pattern lately. We are routinely outplayed and out chanced even in games we win. With the roster we have, it makes absolutely no sense that we almost never just come out and solidly outplay and dominate an opponent. I mean, just by accident it should happen at least every now and then. Just last night, Minnesota, Chicago, Winnipeg and even Ottawa all had comfortable wins by 3+ goals. We almost never have games like that anymore, even during this good streak we are on. Here’s hoping that a win like last night’s will be a springboard to more confidence and even better play.
 

BigFatCat999

First Fubu and now Pred303. !@#$! you cancer
Apr 23, 2007
18,977
3,095
Campbell, NY
upload_2020-2-28_11-28-14.png


If the Preds stay at WC2 past history says this team goes to the WCF
 

101st_fan

I taught Yoda
Oct 22, 2005
14,100
5,325
Near where sand and waves meet.
It's one thing to project points rates with games in hand out to a playoff spot when you're sitting in 10th or 11th in the Conference and chasing. It's another to actually be sitting in a playoff spot with those same games in hand. The team's recent run of wins - even with some sketchy gameplay at times - has them sitting in the latter category. I think that's significant. And the playoff odds have been steadily rising again, from those who do the monte carlos and projections. I think we're up to around 60% on most projections. That's significant. It was only a few weeks ago we had dipped below 40%...

Nashville Predators Chance Will Make Playoffs - Sports Club Stats

And last night's game against a direct rival for one of those spots contributed a +5.8% swing, see the Big Games bars near the top here:

Nashville Predators Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats


This team is doing what it needs under Hynes. It's rarely pretty, but it is effective. Capturing 60% of possible points across the remaining 19 games puts the team at 94-95 points and likely in the playoffs.
 

BigFatCat999

First Fubu and now Pred303. !@#$! you cancer
Apr 23, 2007
18,977
3,095
Campbell, NY
I like the optimism!

It's optimism and the realization that if the Preds stay away from the Pacific tract of the western playoffs they will make hay. Vs. Central teams they are .667 vs. playoff central teams they are .667. Also this part of the season becomes Central heavy with a little of the Pacific. Under the premise, past performance is an indicator of future outcomes. I honestly like the Preds chances.
 

drwpreds

Registered User
Mar 19, 2012
7,879
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Birmingham
The Preds probably match up better in terms of size and (slower) speed with the Central teams, but you can throw all of it out once the playoffs start.

Of course things can change quickly, but if we do make it in, more than likely we will either face St Louis or Vegas in round 1. (I really think Vegas will win the Pacific)

At one point I 100% wanted us to play the Pacific and avoid the Central, but I am not so sure anymore. Either of them would be very tough matchups for sure.
 

Legionnaire11

Registered User
Jul 12, 2007
14,149
8,229
Murfreesboro
atlantichockeyleague.com
One thing to add to the back-and-forth of the last 15+ hours.

Last night's win, and the recent record doesn't erase the frustrations of the season. Nor does it mean that the team is playing at a visibly high level that suggests a sustained success.

But being 6-1-1 in the last 8 should certainly buy a reprieve from the doom and gloom posting. Don't lose the big picture, but allow yourself to indulge in the moment. Enjoy these wins while they happen!
 
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NoNecksCurse

#164303
Oct 19, 2011
13,240
4,971
One thing to add to the back-and-forth of the last 15+ hours.

Last night's win, and the recent doesn't erase the frustrations of the season. Nor does it mean that the team is playing at a visibly high level that suggests a sustained success.

But being 8-1-1 in the last 10 should certainly buy a reprieve from the doom and gloom posting. Don't lose the big picture, but allow yourself to indulge in the moment. Enjoy these wins while they happen!
it's 6-3-1 in the last 10 games but i get your point.

i am definitely guilty of not enjoying much. at least with the way this roster has underperformed.
 

101st_fan

I taught Yoda
Oct 22, 2005
14,100
5,325
Near where sand and waves meet.
One thing to add to the back-and-forth of the last 15+ hours.

Last night's win, and the recent doesn't erase the frustrations of the season. Nor does it mean that the team is playing at a visibly high level that suggests a sustained success.

But being 8-1-1 in the last 10 should certainly buy a reprieve from the doom and gloom posting. Don't lose the big picture, but allow yourself to indulge in the moment. Enjoy these wins while they happen!

The thing lost in the posting here is that this team was never as glorious as its October start nor as bad as it's pathetic November. It is a team with sustained issues (special teams, top 6 performance, goaltending, bottom pair defense, home record, and probably more that I don't want to think about) that has been on the bubble for months now. To climb up the conference, and dare to dream - divisional, standings doesn't require eliminating the issues. Mitigating is enough as we've seen over the past 20 games or so. 6-4-0 is around where they've averaged since Hynes held a practice ... and that is probably good enough to make the playoffs at 94-95 points.


Now to see if they maintain the recent trends.
 

GeauxPreds1

Registered User
Jul 5, 2017
2,128
1,066
Murfreesboro
I’m enjoying this season as best I can. That win last night I was jumping up and down yelling when we scored that game tying goal. I don’t care how we win as long as we win. It’s been a very up and down season and haven’t been enjoyable at times but if we can get in the playoffs anything can happen. Let’s go preds. Saturday we can make it 4 in row and beat a top team.
 

Softball99

Registered User
Dec 16, 2014
423
156
Alright I'm going to try and sum up why Hynes is the coach this team needs right now. Laviolette got stale because he only held a few players accountable and everyone else got to escape any real penalty based on performance. The infection starts to fester. Guys who used to take some of the physical heat for the stars said not anymore. Stars start having more physically punishing games from opponents goonish players, get frustrated, injuries, etc. Now if you don't play a team game with effort you lose ice time. The blue collar guys are being rewarded as promised. Guys that want to be here are starting to buy in. It's going to be a nail biting finish and we seem to play up to challenges and down to the competition (all 3 coaches so far). The difference is we were paying $56 for the upper deck finals and getting matching tickets per seat at the same price. Different fans, experience,& $$. Fans have responded to the effort both ways. This team is starting to believe. We could add size on D because D isn't running the offense anymore
 

Montross

Askarov.
Oct 4, 2013
1,457
260
I’m enjoying this season as best I can. That win last night I was jumping up and down yelling when we scored that game tying goal. I don’t care how we win as long as we win. It’s been a very up and down season and haven’t been enjoyable at times but if we can get in the playoffs anything can happen. Let’s go preds. Saturday we can make it 4 in row and beat a top team.
A solid win tonight will be a nice statement. I am rooting for them to play really well against Colorado.
 

PredsV82

Trade Saros
Sponsor
Aug 13, 2007
35,589
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This team sure as hell owes the fans a solid Saturday night performance.
 

MrJoshua

Registered User
Mar 24, 2010
1,556
320
Decatur, AL
I try really hard not to be that guy that blames the refs, but that was ridiculous. And even more ridiculous that you can't challenge.
 

Armourboy

Hey! You suck!
Jan 20, 2014
19,635
11,026
Shelbyville, TN
I try really hard not to be that guy that blames the refs, but that was ridiculous. And even more ridiculous that you can't challenge.
Yep that's my issue with it. If a team is able to review to have a goal removed in that situation then a team should be able to challenge to have one credited. I have no doubt that if reviewed that it would be a good goal.

It was a poor call by the Refs that removed all ability to review the goal.
 
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