Observations XXVII

[jumb0]

Oh good, more posts about Fiala

 

[Flgatorguy87]

QFT

You lost me on that one.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

You lost me on that one.

QFT = quoted for truth

 

[drwpreds]

Just a final note on the Avs game before we move on to tonight.

Despite the loss, that was one of the Preds best performances of the entire season, and maybe the best game since Hynes took over. Even the 5-0 win over the Islanders wasn't as dominant as this one was.

The expected goals and chances were completely lopsided in Preds favor. The expected goals were 3.32 to 0.93 and the expect to win percentage was 90% Preds- something that rarely happens in most NHL games.

If you look at the heat map, we had numerous chances all around the blue paint/net, while the Avs had almost none.

We just could not finish our chances and find the back of the net unfortunately.

The Preds have had very few games like this the whole season. If we play like that we are going to be in good shape. Hopefully that game is a good sign going forward.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Ellis was named the second star of the week by the NHL with 7 points in 3 games, which amounted to contributing to 7 out of our 9 goals in those games. Nice that he's gotten right back into the form he was at the beginning of the season. To add more fuel to the fire, Fiala was the first star of the week with 4 goals and 5 assists in 4 games.

 

[101st_fan]

Just a final note on the Avs game before we move on to tonight.

Despite the loss, that was one of the Preds best performances of the entire season, and maybe the best game since Hynes took over. Even the 5-0 win over the Islanders wasn't as dominant as this one was.

The expected goals and chances were completely lopsided in Preds favor. The expected goals were 3.32 to 0.93 and the expect to win percentage was 90% Preds- something that rarely happens in most NHL games.

If you look at the heat map, we had numerous chances all around the blue paint/net, while the Avs had almost none.

We just could not finish our chances and find the back of the net unfortunately.

The Preds have had very few games like this the whole season. If we play like that we are going to be in good shape. Hopefully that game is a good sign going forward.

Once again "expected goals" prove as accurate as wild guesses on HF about expected production before a season.

 

[drwpreds]

Once again "expected goals" prove as accurate as wild guesses on HF about expected production before a season.

That is not really true at all. Expected goals gives you a pretty accurate assessment of how a game went as far as how each team played.

But of course it doesn't give you 100% accuracy on who won the game. No matter how much you lead in expected goals it of course doesn't mean you are going to win the game. That is the case with any statistic you want to pull up from any sport.

I just think it is useful and very interesting data- if you use the data for what it is, it is a useful tool.

And in the case of the game Saturday night- it 100% told the story of what the eye test showed- the Preds played a good game despite the L

But hey, if you don't like it so be it, agree to disagree- no need to get off on a tangent here.....

 

[101st_fan]

That is not really true at all. Expected goals gives you a pretty accurate assessment of how a game went as far as how each team played.

But of course it doesn't give you 100% accuracy on who won the game. No matter how much you lead in expected goals it of course doesn't mean you are going to win the game. That is the case with any statistic you want to pull up from any sport.

I just think it is useful and very interesting data- if you use the data for what it is, it is a useful tool.

And in the case of the game Saturday night- it 100% told the story of what the eye test showed- the Preds played a good game despite the L

But hey, if you don't like it so be it, agree to disagree- no need to get off on a tangent here.....

Expected goals doesn't live up to its name and fails checks of correlation. Game after game we get posts like yours that talk how xGF and xGA said something totally different than the scoreboard.

"No matter how much you lead in expected goals it of course doesn't mean you are going to win the game. That is the case with any statistic you want to pull up from any sport." --- Except actual goals for and against in a specific game. That one ALWAYS correlates to winning, losing, or ties (league dependent).

 

[jumb0]

I prefer actual goals to expected goals, but that's just me.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Expected goals aren't made to show who actually won the game. I think there's often times we discuss how well we play in a game, how may chances we got and didn't convert in a game, or get dominated but still "find a way for a gutsy win". I don't see why it's heresy to use xGF to show what many people were already saying in that we played well and here is the number that supports what we saw.

Sometimes it feels like this board just argues for the sake of arguing.

 

[drwpreds]

Expected goals aren't made to show who actually won the game. I think there's often times we discuss how well we play in a game, how may chances we got and didn't convert in a game, or get dominated but still "find a way for a gutsy win". I don't see why it's heresy to use xGF to show what many people were already saying in that we played well and here is the number that supports what we saw.

Sometimes it feels like this board just argues for the sake of arguing.

Exactly correct- why some people get so up in arms over this is beyond me

 

[drwpreds]

Expected goals doesn't live up to its name and fails checks of correlation. Game after game we get posts like yours that talk how xGF and xGA said something totally different than the scoreboard.

"No matter how much you lead in expected goals it of course doesn't mean you are going to win the game. That is the case with any statistic you want to pull up from any sport." --- Except actual goals for and against in a specific game. That one ALWAYS correlates to winning, losing, or ties (league dependent).

You are still completely missing the point of my post. No one is arguing or saying that actual goals aren't the most important thing.

Like I said, agree to disagree- no need to get sidetracked on it...….

 

[101st_fan]

Expected goals ... the great misnomer ... is nothing more than a numerical shot map. How many shots from where plugged into a formula to produce a number. It doesn't say if a team played well or poorly ... just that there were some shots on goal from regions of the ice. It fails to correlate to reality over and over.

 

[drwpreds]

Expected goals ... the great misnomer ... is nothing more than a numerical shot map. How many shots from where plugged into a formula to produce a number. It doesn't say if a team played well or poorly ... just that there were some shots on goal from regions of the ice. It fails to correlate to reality over and over.

Ok- so I guess you don't want to just agree to disagree.

The bolded above is just not true. It absolutely can give you a general sense of how a game went. It is 100% absolute every time? Of course not- no one is saying it is. And no one is trying to argue that expected goals are more important than actual goals.

But again, I just don't understand why it bothers you so much that it is discussed.

The whole point of my post was this- watching the game it felt like the Preds played a really solid game. And the stats from the game (shots, changes, xGf, xGa) back that eye test up.

That is it- that is the whole point of my post- what about that do you disagree with??

Why does that bother you so much??? It is just a discussion about the game.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I enjoy meta discussions about hockey stats and what they mean so sorry if someone takes this as being argumentative for no reason, but I really have a lot of issues with expected goals so its sort of a personal crusade for me. For the most part on here people tend to be more measured in how they interpret and use xG, however the analytics or bust people on Twitter drive me absolutely insane. My issue is that on a game to game level expected goal differential barely correlates with actual goal differential at all. To show that visually here's a plot of that data taken from NaturalStatTrick for each regular season game since the 17-18 season:

There is a slight positive correlation between the two so it does at least predict the result of a game better than random, but on a game to game level it's predictive power just really isn't there for me to take any meaning out of it as a stat. It get's slightly better at predicting a team's goal differential over an entire season (albeit still not great) so maybe there is some value in it there, however not nearly as much as some would leave you to believe.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Fanside analytics in hockey doesn't work, it's as simple as that.

 

[101st_fan]

Ok- so I guess you don't want to just agree to disagree.

The bolded above is just not true. It absolutely can give you a general sense of how a game went. It is 100% absolute every time? Of course not- no one is saying it is. And no one is trying to argue that expected goals are more important than actual goals.

But again, I just don't understand why it bothers you so much that it is discussed.

The whole point of my post was this- watching the game it felt like the Preds played a really solid game. And the stats from the game (shots, changes, xGf, xGa) back that eye test up.

That is it- that is the whole point of my post- what about that do you disagree with??

Why does that bother you so much??? It is just a discussion about the game.

You're the one bolding comments because I point out that expected goals is flawed. You then say it "can" give a sense how a game went ... that does not equate to "does" give a sense. Words mean things. Correlation matters. Expected goals fails at both the words meaning things and correlation part of that.

But feel free to keep going to a flawed number to rationalize your position.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Oh Minny is going to get f***ed up next game.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Oh Minny is going to get f***ed up next game.

fiala gets a hat trick and granlund scores a garbage goal in the last minute. wild 4 preds 2

 

[Montross]

Oh Minny is going to get f***ed up next game.

Lol

 

[hockey diva]

So, how many seasons will it take to clean up this mess?

When they start losing corporate customers, the ownership may be forced to do something.

 

[Pred303]

good grief.

 

[Scoresberg]

Average talent, meet elite talent.

Just lmfao at this team. Losers.

 

[sparkle twin]

Heard Josi on the post game show say that they came out flat and that in the third period the oilers were just the hungrier team.

Are you kidding me?

That's such a pitiful, bullshit excuse. It was tied 3-3, your team just tied the game at the end of the second period. You are at home. You are fighting for your playoff lives. After the game Saturday night, there is NO reason to come out flat in the third period and get run out of your own building in just 5 minutes!

But hey, they'll learn their lesson, and get to play tomorrow! Sorry bunch of jagoffs.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

if josi actually said the oilers were hungrier in that situation then well... that confirms what i had already known about this team.

i still think we luck into the last wild card spot only because the west is that bad. we will lose in the first round in 5 games and i hope there are some massive changes in the summer.