Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[Gabriel426]

8.8 x 8 = 70.4
10M x 7 = 70M

Leafs likely offer up more signing bonuses and a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow

Plus endorsement opportunities in Toronto if he wants to bring in more.

but you are assuming Willie won't be playing hockey after 7 yrs.

 

[WTFMAN99]

but you are assuming Willie won't be playing hockey after 7 yrs.

I'd say it's unlikely he's worth 10M+ after 7 years.

 

[Gabriel426]

What did Meier and PLD get in trade in broadly the same situation?

I think if and when Willie is traded, it will be very similar to PLD and Meier. But the pieces coming back might not be pieces that Leafs needed, like a Physical Dman or physical forwards.

 

[PromisedLand]

What did Meier and PLD get in trade in broadly the same situation?

PLD return was decent but Kings had the room to make it happen. I wonder how many teams in the league are in a similar situation and can provide something similar or better in return.

Meier return was a bit of an overpayment from the Devils. That said, Devils are still better off when it comes to their cap space give the amount of guys they have signed compared to the Leafs current situation.

I outlined Leafs cap Vs competitors at the link below I won't rehash it

Cap world - Comparison of Leafs with competitors

So here is what the comparison looks like Assuming Leafs have to go through ECF I will focus on Atlantic Division and handpick Metro teams who I think may end up in ECF again next season ATLANTIC LEAFS: Matthews (11.6), Tavares, (11), Marner (11), Nylander (7), Rielly (7.5) Total: 48 million...

forums.hfboards.com

Simply put Leafs can't continue to overpay their players and remain relevant/competitive in the league

 

[daveleaf]

Offer him 2 years at 8.8 with full NMC.

Proves he's worth more or he doesn't.

The chance of loosing him outright again. I like the idea with regards to Tavares coming off the books and maybe signing for significantly less if at all. This team needs some more dmen. Is he better than PLD? Numbers wise yes, I think PLD is a nut case but we should be able to get some nice young pieces.

 

[New Liskeard]

If memory serves me right Gaudreau also didn't sign until middle or late July as a UFA though; since he walked away as ufa. both have same agents.

So yea i expect this to play out all summer long, then when season starts they will stop negotiating because "I don't want contract stuff to disturb me in season, i just want to focus on playing" simply put.... If by the season opener the deal isn't signed, Willy is either getting traded (don't think we will get a good return for 1 yr rental unless it is sign and trade but now sure how sign and trade will work either with teh cap); or he is walking directly to the UFA market and going to the highest bidder



Given Treliving's history with Gaudreau and Gross I think Tre will be more proactive instead of reactive. At least that is my guess based on some of his takes in the interviews he has done i.e. "lessons learned"

Hard to see where the leverage is for the agent and player. Looks to be about 1.2 million per year difference. If they can’t meet in the middle, clearly the team, competitiveness, culture isn’t as important as one may seem. Especially when in UFA Nylander would be very hard pressed to get the dollars and value that MLSE presents. Have to think Tre has a hard deadline and very little patience for nonsense with Lewis. Reasonable minds can clearly see a fair compromise.

 

[Gabriel426]

I'd say it's unlikely he's worth 10M+ after 7 years.

but if he signs 5mil for 3 yrs after 7yrs. Then you will have to add that 5mil plus the 10mil x 7 to make the math fair when comparing to 8.8mil x 8.

 

[kb]

I think if and when Willie is traded, it will be very similar to PLD and Meier. But the pieces coming back might not be pieces that Leafs needed, like a Physical Dman or physical forwards.

If they decide to trade Nylander, then they need to take the best offer, then use those to go shopping.

If you pigeon-hole yourself by looking for a specific return only, that's arguably worse than trying to trade a NMC

 

[WTFMAN99]

but if he signs 5mil for 3 yrs after 7yrs. Then you will have to add that 5mil plus the 10mil x 7 to make the math fair when comparing to 8.8mil x 8.

I'm not going to try to forecast 7 years down the road or any *IF* scenarios

Nylander could get rocked game 4 in year 5 of the contract and go on LTIR for the rest of his career too.

Ultimately 70.4 is 8.8 x 8 and 70M is 10M x 7 years and that's if someone can find that room to pay him that.

Not even accounting for what 80-90% of the contract being signing bonuses versus 50%, similar to Meiers or Bratt. Give me 800k today versus 1M 5 years from now because chances are I can do stuff with that money in 5 years to more than make up for 200k.

 

[PromisedLand]

Hard to see where the leverage is for the agent and player. Looks to be about 1.2 million per year difference. If they can’t meet in the middle, clearly the team, competitiveness, culture isn’t as important as one may seem. Especially when in UFA Nylander would be very hard pressed to get the dollars and value that MLSE presents. Have to think Tre has a hard deadline and very little patience for nonsense with Lewis. Reasonable minds can clearly see a fair compromise.

Depends really Someone earlier in the thread rightly (IMO) pointed out the options for Willy:

10 X 7 = 70M
8.5 to 8.75 x 8 = 68M to 70M

Leafs can front load that contract like no one else. I doubt Nylander is going to recieve an offer of 10M in the UFA market next summer; and even if he did it would at max be 7 years to 70 million (signing bonuses is up for debate who Willy signs it with).

I don't see whats taking so long, unless Willy and his agent think they will be able to get a bigger haul than 70M in total in the UFA market so either pay them that or they walk. I am not sure...

 

[daveleaf]

He wants to make a lot of money. The cap does not allow for the allocation of cap to the level he wants. He can sign a long term deal but it will be a lower amount. Not just with the leafs but league wide. What team is giving him 10+ million. He is arrogant so it is likely he would take a gamble on himself. Sign for $8.5 and make $2.5 more per year and then when cap goes up he is more likely to get what he is looking for league wide. The cap puts restrictions and I am sure his agent will understand this. I think this is more likely than him signing a 5-6 year deal or getting traded.

I would not be rushing to give knies top 6 minutes even though he has the skill to justify it. None of our top 6 will protect him and he will get concussed again. I would rather put him on the 3rd line and ease him in. If he plays with matthew and marner he will end up f***ed up imp.

Bertuzzi. Matthews. Marner
Robertson. Tavares. Nylander
Knies. Domi. Jarnkrok
Lafferty kampf. Holmberg/Reaves

Just having Reaves on the bench now will calm the aggressiveness down now. I don't think they are done yet.

 

[BertCorbeau]

At the end of the day Trev needs to do some cap work. And moving Nylander to do that eases the need to move Murray, which can lessen the cost to move him overall.

I can’t see Trev sitting around waiting.

 

[Drytoast]

Vegas won without Nylander.

Trade him

 

[daveleaf]

Depends really Someone earlier in the thread rightly (IMO) pointed out the options for Willy:

10 X 7 = 70M
8.5 to 8.75 x 8 = 68M to 70M

Leafs can front load that contract like no one else. I doubt Nylander is going to recieve an offer of 10M in the UFA market next summer; and even if he did it would at max be 7 years to 70 million (signing bonuses is up for debate who Willy signs it with).

I don't see whats taking so long, unless Willy and his agent think they will be able to get a bigger haul than 70M in total in the UFA market so either pay them that or they walk. I am not sure...

What took so long last time? He will hold this out until the end. That being said I don't believe Treliving or Shanahan have the appetite for it. I think the only way things tone down cap wise is if Mathews comes out with a hometown discount and says to the others if we want to win this is what we have to do. I think Austin is the domino here.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Vegas won without Nylander.

Trade him

Lots of teams have won without this particular group of 3-4 players that everyone loves to fawn over.

1 series win...

Makes me really appreciate that group we had in the early 2000's, 2 conference final appearances...that's the highlight of my 35 years on this planet.

 

[Gabriel426]

If they decide to trade Nylander, then they need to take the best offer, then use those to go shopping.

If you pigeon-hole yourself by looking for a specific return only, that's arguably worse than trying to trade a NMC

I agree and thats why Leafs will have more options now then in the beginning of the season due to the cap.

Even if he is traded today, the return might still not be what the Leafs needs but there are plenty of time to make other trades as most teams are still not set with their roster, can't say the same in Nov when pretty much all the teams are set with their roster.

To me, ideally Andersson is the guy that solves a lot of problems with the Leafs, but knowing Treliving would probably got inside sources with the Flames, i doubt it would happen or Treliving probably wont sign Klingberg.

 

[daveleaf]

Last 2 year 5v5 production in playoff

Nylander had 1 goal 5 assist at 5v5 in his 18 game

Bertuzzi had 2 goal 2 assist in 7 Game
Domi 1 goal 9 assist in 19 game

Im pretty sure adding bertuzzi domi and klinberg will easily overcome nylander pp impact too

Pretty sure pesce defensive impavt would be higher too

Ya but trading Nylander to Carolina? I would send him west.

 

[PromisedLand]

thats a marner for dahlin trade, not nylander.

I think Dahlin's contract is rumoured to be around 9.5 to 10 AAV for 8 years. Sabres probably laugh at 10.9 AAV of Marner for just 2 more years and increase that is coming on his deal and say... "No Thanks Brad. We are good"

 

[Gabriel426]

I'm not going to try to forecast 7 years down the road or any *IF* scenarios

Nylander could get rocked game 4 in year 5 of the contract and go on LTIR for the rest of his career too.

Ultimately 70.4 is 8.8 x 8 and 70M is 10M x 7 years and that's if someone can find that room to pay him that.

Not even accounting for what 80-90% of the contract being signing bonuses versus 50%, similar to Meiers or Bratt. Give me 800k today versus 1M 5 years from now because chances are I can do stuff with that money in 5 years to more than make up for 200k.

Thats why it is a false narrative as you are comparing 7yrs of earning vs 8 yrs and assume what if he gets a career ending injury.
Also, signing bonuses is not a Leafs exclusive, bc every other teams can offer signing bonuses.

What took so long last time? He will hold this out until the end. That being said I don't believe Treliving or Shanahan have the appetite for it. I think the only way things tone down cap wise is if Mathews comes out with a hometown discount and says to the others if we want to win this is what we have to do. I think Austin is the domino here.

In a way, I think they are playing hardball to show the core 4 that they are willing to part ways with them. You can ask for whatever you want but we don't need to say yes.

 

[PromisedLand]

What took so long last time? He will hold this out until the end. That being said I don't believe Treliving or Shanahan have the appetite for it. I think the only way things tone down cap wise is if Mathews comes out with a hometown discount and says to the others if we want to win this is what we have to do. I think Austin is the domino here.

Matthews is always the domino man not just in terms of player salary/cap hit but on ice performance. Entire team looks to Matthews to do something when chips are down anyway (at least I do )

His RFA negotiation tactics I could still understand (although not happy about it); I just don't understand his UFA negotiation tactic. The only reason Nylander and his agent should be holding out is if they think they can get a bigger pot that is much larger than 70M in the UFA market with upfront money. If not, they are just bluffing as far as I am concerned.

I really don't think Nylander will get paid more than 10M in the UFA market next summer.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Thats why it is a false narrative as you are comparing 7yrs of earning vs 8 yrs and assume what if he gets a career ending injury.
Also, signing bonuses is not a Leafs exclusive, bc every other teams can offer signing bonuses.

Outside of NYR and MTL, I don't see any team doing 80-90% signing bonuses.

It's not a false narrative either, 70.4M is more than 70M, even if he has to work an extra year, it's technically more money and most likely more up front cash in his pocket with the signing bonuses unless he does indeed land with one of the more lucrative / financially successful franchises.

Gaudreau only got 14.5M out of 68.25M in signing bonuses or 21.2% signing bonuses

Vegas gave Pietrangelo 35M out of 61.6M as signing bonuses or 56.8% as signing bonuses

Compared to what JT got as a UFA from us with 70.89M out of 77M as signing bonuses or 92%

Panarin got 74.5M out of 81.5M as signing bonuses so 91.4%

If it's not NYR, MTL or TOR, no one is coming close to signing bonuses, even if you're a craphole team that is desperate, you likely can't pony up big signing bonuses.

 

[Gabriel426]

Matthews is always the domino man not just in terms of player salary/cap hit but on ice performance. Entire team looks to Matthews to do something when chips are down anyway (at least I do :laugh)

His RFA negotiation tactics I could still understand (although not happy about it); I just don't understand his UFA negotiation tactic. The only reason Nylander and his agent should be holding out is if they think they can get a bigger pot that is much larger than 70M in the UFA market with upfront money. If not, they are just bluffing as far as I am concerned.

I really don't think Nylander will get paid more than 10M in the UFA market next summer.

I don't think so either. I think Willie's camp just holding out for AM to sign first.
And I like it that Treliving is holding firm at 8-9mil. Hope he is holding firm with AM too

 

[Gabriel426]

Outside of NYR and MTL, I don't see any team doing 80-90% signing bonuses.

It's not a false narrative either, 70.4M is more than 70M, even if he has to work an extra year, it's technically more money and most likely more up front cash in his pocket with the signing bonuses unless he does indeed land with one of the more lucrative / financially successful franchises.

Gaudreau only got 14.5M out of 68.25M in signing bonuses or 21.2% signing bonuses

Vegas gave Pietrangelo 35M out of 61.6M as signing bonuses or 56.8% as signing bonuses

Compared to what JT got as a UFA from us with 70.89M out of 77M as signing bonuses or 92%

Panarin got 74.5M out of 81.5M as signing bonuses so 91.4%

If it's not NYR, MTL or TOR, no one is coming close to signing bonuses, even if you're a craphole team that is desperate, you likely can't pony up big signing bonuses.

You are comparing 8yrs to 7yrs. So unless Willie really gets a career ending injury, even if he signs a one year 800k contract, he will still earn more signing a 70mil for 7 yrs plus the 800k on the 8th year than signing 8yrs with the Leafs at 70.4mil.

Maybe only NYR and MTL can give Leafs' style signing bonuses, but if Willie is a UFA, both of those teams can sign Willie with signing bonuses like the Leafs.

I am not saying the Leafs got no leverage here bc they got tons even with AM and his NTC or MM with his NTC. The teams will always have leverage over its players but you can't compare say 8 yrs with the Leafs pay you more than 8 yrs with another team or teams.

 

[Zero1]

Honest question, who are the teams lining up to pay him $10+ million?

I think you let him and his agent go talk to other teams.

Give them a deadline. Either they come to their senses and take a fair contract or they actually find teams that’ll give him $10 mill and the Leafs can work out a trade.

 

[Clyde Brewer]

What some have to realize is Nylander's current contract looks great now but I'm going to disagree with it being great when he signed. He was paid in comparison to guys like Pastrnak and Ehjlers and basically got what he wanted, after holding out. Dubas should have shipped him out then instead of caving in. Each year salaries go up so yes it looks good now but we didn't get a steal of a deal when it was signed. Same as M&M. All 3 cases Dubas overpaid and if it happens again we'll be dealing with the same problem filling in the holes and depth.

I disagree with the bolded part. $6.9 million was a decent contract at the time, and one of the best in the league last season. Dubas should have got off his ass and signed the contract at the beginning of that season.

He had no problem readily bending over and gifting Marner $10.9 the next preseason.


If Dubas hadn't dicked around, and just signed Nylander to 6.9 off the hop, then there wouldn't have been controversy surrounding the deal.