Speculation: Nylander Discussion - Part IV

[GrumpyKelly]

How is not signing him for 8.5 million a paycut?

What I mean is if Nylander believes (as would be logical since he hasn't signed yet) that he can be something like a PPG this year and wants to prove it before signing a long term contract, you're saying no, we can't let you do that cause then we'd have to pay you more?

I mean, if Nylander thinks he can do that then it really doesn't make any sense for him. He would probably regret that deal as soon as next year.

 

[Iceman]

Matthews produced 79% of what Mcdavid did in his 1st 2 seasons, so he should only get $9.8 (79% of Mcdavid's deal), no? This is your logic here, so it should hold up.

While he won't sign for that, $9.8m doesn't sound that unreasonable to be honest.

 

[hyduK]

What I mean is if Nylander believes (as would be logical since he hasn't signed yet) that he can be something like a PPG this year and wants to prove it before signing a long term contract, you're saying no, we can't let you do that cause then we'd have to pay you more?

I mean, if Nylander thinks he can do that then it really doesn't make any sense for him. He would probably regret that deal as soon as next year.

Yeah. Especially when your center is earning 11.5-12m by that point.

 

[Faltorvo]

Here's how the calculus plays out:

Nylander is not - by any stretch - a proven commodity. He's a young player who has three years in the league, and two straight 61 point seasons. If he thinks he's getting 8.5M he's dreaming, and the Leafs should trade him.

If he's doing the math properly, he should notice that playing on the Leafs this year should drastically elevate his point totals. 80 points is within reach. If he signs a bridge at 6.5M for two or three years, and shows the league that he's an 80 point player, he'll be able to sign an 8.5-9M a year deal for significant term. He should view the next two years as fertile ground to prove his actual worth to the league. His belief that he is somehow a proven player is misguided.

If he doesn't sign in the next week to 10 days, the Leafs should move him out - to send the message to Marner that we won't be bullied next year. Matthews will get paid because he is proven.

he will never EVER get bridged offer at a number that should be his 8 year offer.

3 years bridge at 3.75m per

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

What I mean is if Nylander believes (as would be logical since he hasn't signed yet) that he can be something like a PPG this year and wants to prove it before signing a long term contract, you're saying no, we can't let you do that cause then we'd have to pay you more?

I mean, if Nylander thinks he can do that then it really doesn't make any sense for him. He would probably regret that deal as soon as next year.

If he wanted a one year show me deal, that's nowhere near 8.5. His show me deal will be used to base the rest of the contract off of. A show me deal would be like 5 million.

 

[hyduK]

If he wanted a one year show me deal, that's nowhere near 8.5. His show me deal will be used to base the rest of the contract off of. A show me deal would be like 5 million.

Which is probably something the Leafs don't want to offer because it puts them in a big mess next season.

 

[Faltorvo]

While he won't sign for that, $9.8m doesn't sound that unreasonable to be honest.

matty should be in the same ballpark as Norris Hedman, Stamkos,Kuch

 

[KlefDown]

man if Marner puts up 80+ this year, Leafs management is going to have a real problem on their hands

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Which is probably something the Leafs don't want to offer because it puts them in a big mess next season.

It's not great for either side, the Leafs want to know their cap going into negotiations with Matthews and Marner and Nylander doesn't want to risk losing tens of millions if he gets hurt.

 

[Faltorvo]

Good thing we actually have cold hard numbers for salary negotiations. Matthews produced 15% more points over his first two seasons than Eichel. That's 1.575m worth of salary.

and McDavids cold hard numbers refute your claim

 

[Mugzy97]

man if Marner puts up 80+ this year, Leafs management is going to have a real problem on their hands

Didn't realize having so many star players is a problem. More of a future challenge.

 

[mashedpotato]

I hope someone offer sheets Nylander ; would solve Toronto's incoming cap dilemma pretty easily , and provide plenty of quality draft picks.

 

[hyduK]

man if Marner puts up 80+ this year, Leafs management is going to have a real problem on their hands

And with Tavares as his center it's not that far fetched.

But he's a good Ontario boy so the fans won't crucify him for asking for what he thinks he deserves.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Didn't realize having so many star players is a problem. More of a future challenge.

then you havent paid attention to the Cap era

 

[GrumpyKelly]

If he wanted a one year show me deal, that's nowhere near 8.5. His show me deal will be used to base the rest of the contract off of. A show me deal would be like 5 million.

I mean long term 8.5, bridge would obviously be lower.

 

[Faltorvo]

I hope someone offer sheets Nylander ; would solve Toronto's incoming cap dilemma pretty easily , and provide plenty of quality draft picks.

fine with me

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

And with Tavares as his center it's not that far fetched.

But he's a good Ontario boy so the fans won't crucify him for asking for what he thinks he deserves.

He's a winger, he won't make center money. Look at wingers for his comparable contracts.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

I mean long term 8.5, bridge would obviously be lower.

Ah, that makes more sense but neither side wants that.

 

[Mugzy97]

then you havent paid attention to the Cap era

No I paid attention, and those teams won cups.

 

[KlefDown]

Didn't realize having so many star players is a problem. More of a future challenge.

not a problem but definitely a challenge.
you're going to have to sign Matthews, Marner and Gardiner next offseason. even if Gardiner only gets a standard raise, that's still 4.5 - 5m for him

 

[The Podium]

... in 2012.

Pro-rates to roughly 5.5 in 2018

 

[hyduK]

He's a winger, he won't make center money. Look at wingers for his comparable contracts.

I never even mentioned what kind of money he'd make lol.

But yeah, even as a winger, 80p is gonna put him in the 8.5-9m range.

 

[Whileee]

Matthews will get at least 11m, probably more.

The discount narrative has always been a pipedream invented by Leafs fans and to an extent the comments management has made.

Agents work on commission. They have a direct financial incentive to go for the best deal possible, rather than "hometown discounts". Let's be honest, $11 million isn't much of a discount for Tavares.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Lost in all of this is people kinda chirping the Leafs, but would any team not want the problem of having so many young stud players that you can't afford them all?

It's different if you are Detroit and have no cap because it's all vets with one foot in retirement, but meh. Even if Willy leaves the offense takes a hit but is still top 5. They'll get other assets (draft picks, prospects) to provide some cheap depth and will have cap space to add another player to the roster.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Agents work on commission. They have a direct financial incentive to go for the best deal possible, rather than "hometown discounts". Let's be honest, $11 million isn't much of a discount for Tavares.

It is when you're offered more. Anything under the max offer another team gave you is a discount. Tavares is the best free agent in at least a decade he could have gotten a lot more money. Montreal would have backed up a brinks truck on his lawn.