Speculation: Nylander Discussion - Part IV

[Jake Barnes]

8 x 5 makes sense but even so the Leafs have the cap room to sign him and trade him. If a team wants Nylander the only way to guarantee getting him is to offer 8.1 over 6 or 7 or trade for him.

Sure, but if some GM had a major hard on to stick it to the Leafs, I suppose that would be an option. I mean, sure, you could match and sign him and then try to trade him, but presumably the only team who'd want Nylander at 8 mil would be the team offer sheeting him. At that point, I'd imagine you'd be better off just taking the 3 picks and walking away with your salary structure in tact.

Just so there's no mistake here: I don't really care how this resolves itself, so don't mistake my comment for piling on the Leafs. I do think the offer sheet option is an interesting scenario here, though.

 

[nabob]

Because they sent an offer sheet. They put the target on their own backs this way.

Nylander can play out the year in Toronto under this hypothetical. He would be traded in the offseason, giving the Leafs his return and the cap space to sign their higher priority RFA’s

What kind of target? You know that’s not actually a thing that happens right?

Or Nylander has a poor season and the Leafs can’t move his massive cap hit. Leaving them in a terrible cap situation going forward. No teams are lining up for Nylander right now, what makes you think they will next offseason if he’s making $8M/season.

 

[FerrisRox]

Only HfBoards suggests that, the stats don't.

Freddy Andersen faced more shots than any other goalie in the league.

The Leafs gave up more shots than only a small handful of teams. Those are stats and facts. To pretend the Leafs defense isn't weak is to bury your head in the sand. It's not good. It's obvious. Open your eyes.

 

[The Burdened]

6.75m * 7 years who says no?

Leafs or Gross or both?

Gross.

I would bet 6.75 is the absolute highest Toronto will go.
Just guessing, but probably the absolute lowest Gross would go is 7.25.

Iirc 7.25 is roughly the same cap % he negotiated for Gaudreau.

 

[nabob]

Aho likes your plan very very much. He would then value all 4 of his RFA years at 8.0(because he's better, per HF) plus inflation to next years cap, lets guess it'll be 3 million more. And then all the UFA years at 11 million. Aho's 8 year deal comes out to be 9.65. He'd be very very happy if the Canes tried that indeed.

And then Marner gets 10.5 and Matthews gets 13. Everyone wins.

 

[Dustin]

Sure, but if some GM had a major hard on to stick it to the Leafs, I suppose that would be an option. I mean, sure, you could match and sign him and then try to trade him, but presumably the only team who'd want Nylander at 8 mil would be the team offer sheeting him. At that point, I'd imagine you'd be better off just taking the 3 picks and walking away with your salary structure in tact.

Just so there's no mistake here: I don't really care how this resolves itself, so don't mistake my comment for piling on the Leafs. I do think the offer sheet option is an interesting scenario here, though.

I mean the chances of an OS in general are very low. Even less is the odds of him signing an OS and then leaving to play for the new team. Only 1 player since 1997 has signed an OS that was not matched by his drafting team.

In regards to trying to screw over the Leafs, GM's are much more interested in making their teams better than attacking the Leafs. Overpaying for Nylander and then losing assets on top of that is not smart management. Especially if that team has other young players to sign.

 

[hector morrison]

The same Vegas oddsmakers that thought Edmonton was a Cup contender last year and the Golden Knights were going to be awful.

Maybe...you got a pick/opinion ? or you just a side-liner?

 

[Canada4Gold]

And then Marner gets 10.5 and Matthews gets 13. Everyone wins.

Maybe, but Aho's case would be much better since his own team would have signed a worse player with less leverage to that deal instead of a different team. But yes, every comparable would help.

The point was that the biggest reason teams don't throw out those offer sheets is because most teams have similar players that will point to those very offer sheets their own GM made as comparables that are really high.

 

[FerrisRox]

Maybe...you got a pick/opinion ? or you just a side-liner?

Do I have an opinion on who is a Cup favorite?

I would put Tampa Bay, Washington, Winnipeg and Pittsburgh among the favourites.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Gross.

I would bet 6.75 is the absolute highest Toronto will go.
Just guessing, but probably the absolute lowest Gross would go is 7.25.

Iirc 7.25 is roughly the same cap % he negotiated for Gaudreau.

So Gross is at 7m right now but won’t come down to 6.75m?

If they can’t come to a deal of 6.5-7m over 7 years by November 1, gotta think he will be shopped.

 

[The Burdened]

Aho likes your plan very very much. He would then value all 4 of his RFA years at 8.0(because he's better, per HF) plus inflation to next years cap, lets guess it'll be 3 million more. And then all the UFA years at 11 million. Aho's 8 year deal comes out to be 9.65. He'd be very very happy if the Canes tried that indeed.

Carolina is going to pay Aho regardless. You use your cap space to sign your stars. That's what it's there for.
They have the space and don't have any bad contracts on the books besides Darling.
Of course, this is theoretically speaking that their new owner would spend to the ceiling which he may or may not it remains to be seen.

It also helps when you have young players like Slavin & Pesce locked up and cost controlled at 25% less than what they're worth.
It's how Philadelphia could luxury add JvR. They have Couturier & Ghost locked up for $8,000,000 COMBINED.

So Gross is at 7m right now but won’t come down to 6.75m?

If they can’t come to a deal of 6.5-7m over 7 years by November 1, gotta think he will be shopped.

is Gross at 7?

 

[BLONG7]

And then Marner gets 10.5 and Matthews gets 13. Everyone wins.

It's a pleasant problem to have, but the cap causes every team these troubles.

 

[Strangle]

What kind of target? You know that’s not actually a thing that happens right?

Or Nylander has a poor season and the Leafs can’t move his massive cap hit. Leaving them in a terrible cap situation going forward. No teams are lining up for Nylander right now, what makes you think they will next offseason if he’s making $8M/season.

This post is full of hypotheticals.

“But what if ...” isn’t really a strong argument to make. I entertained the 1st hypothetical (Carolina sending an offer sheet and Nylander signing it), I’m not going to continue discussing further hypotheticals ad nauseam. There is no bottom to that rabbit hole.

The kind of target I was referring to, which should be obvious, is to have one of your players be offer sheeted in retaliation. There are checks and balances in place in the offer sheet system, which is why it’s rarely ever used. I just assumed most people were aware of this, I’ll try to explain in more detail next time some rare hypothetical scenario comes up to hopefully avoid this kind of confusion.

The simple fact is, if Nylander is offered and signs an offer sheet, the Leafs likely match it and trade the player before signing Marner. Full stop.

 

[hector morrison]

Do I have an opinion on who is a Cup favorite?

I would put Tampa Bay, Washington, Winnipeg and Pittsburgh among the favourites.

Among? Really goin' out on a limb there! How did you make out in previous years? Personally I'm hardly ever right...as far as the actual winner goes! For eg. I lost a case of beer to my Tenant who just happens to be the only Caps fan I've ever met! I had picked the Jets!

 

[FerrisRox]

Among? Really goin' out on a limb there! How did you make out in previous years? Personally I'm hardly ever right...as far as the actual winner goes! For eg. I lost a case of beer to my Tenant who just happens to be the only Caps fan I've ever met! I had picked the Jets!

You want me to pick just one?

Tampa Bay.

You want me to pick one from each conference, Tampa Bay and Winnipeg.

 

[hector morrison]

You want me to pick just one?

Tampa Bay.

You want me to pick one from each conference, Tampa Bay and Winnipeg.

Sensible picks! But I doubt either one makes it! I see the Leafs going further than either! But that's why we watch. There always seems to be a surprise as well, so many variables. I got San Jose in the west though!

 

[Canada4Gold]

Carolina is going to pay Aho regardless. You use your cap space to sign your stars. That's what it's there for.
They have the space and don't have any bad contracts on the books besides Darling.
Of course, this is theoretically speaking that their new owner would spend to the ceiling which he may or may not it remains to be seen.

It also helps when you have young players like Slavin & Pesce locked up and cost controlled at 25% less than what they're worth.
It's how Philadelphia could luxury add JvR. They have Couturier & Ghost locked up for $8,000,000 COMBINED.


is Gross at 7?

Obviously Carolina is going to pay Aho regardless. But it's not going to be a blank check. As of right now they probably should be able to get him at 7 or probably under. If they give Nylander the offer sheet that was suggesting suddenly the very first comparable Aho is going to bring to the table is going to be that contract his own GM signed Nylander to. Now that comparable has Aho up to 2.5 million higher than what he should get. Carolina is going to pay what Aho is worth, no doubt about it. But they're not going to go out of their way to give Aho a legitimate comparable to be able to ask for 2.5 million more.

Same thing for Colorado with Rantanen, Vancouver with Boeser, and just about every other team people suggest should offer sheet Nylander. Like I said before, teams don't do it because it raises comparables that would cause them to have to overpay their own players shortly thereafter. It's not because of retalitory offer sheets which is the reason most people tend to bring up.

If a 8 or TBH even 7 million dollar offer sheet was out there, we would have likely saw something happen by now.

 

[FerrisRox]

Sensible picks! But I doubt either one makes it! I see the Leafs going further than either! But that's why we watch. There always seems to be a surprise as well, so many variables. I got San Jose in the west though!

I think the Leafs will be hard pressed to do much with their current blueline. Unless they get a very favourable match up, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them go out in round one again. Their defense is an achilles heel and they've done nothing at all to address it.

 

[nabob]

This post is full of hypotheticals.

“But what if ...” isn’t really a strong argument to make. I entertained the 1st hypothetical (Carolina sending an offer sheet and Nylander signing it), I’m not going to continue discussing further hypotheticals ad nauseam. There is no bottom to that rabbit hole.

The kind of target I was referring to, which should be obvious, is to have one of your players be offer sheeted in retaliation. There are checks and balances in place in the offer sheet system, which is why it’s rarely ever used. I just assumed most people were aware of this, I’ll try to explain in more detail next time some rare hypothetical scenario comes up to hopefully avoid this kind of confusion.

The simple fact is, if Nylander is offered and signs an offer sheet, the Leafs likely match it and trade the player before signing Marner. Full stop.

It was a response to a post of hypotheticals...

 

[sheed36]

Man. Why are so many people commenting about his status when they have little to no understanding of how Offer Sheets work....

The contract is divided by 5 if it is signed for longer than 5. 8.1 over 6 or 7 years yields four 1st round picks. It's been stated many time in the numerous threads about Nylander.

Speaking of understanding how all this works. You do know the Leafs are the only team that can offer Nylander 8 years right?

Look if all of these teams think that Nylander would be the face of their franchise then offer him 8 x 8. The Leafs will absolutely take the four 1st round picks and and since the people are fine overpaying Nylander then they should be fine overpaying to get him from Toronto. I mean what is four 1st round picks compared to the face of your organization?

 

[Horse McHindu]

Loui Eriksson for William Nylander is beneficial for both hockey teams.

 

[Strangle]

It was a response to a post of hypotheticals...

What is your goal here? Just to derail the conversation?

 

[hector morrison]

I think the Leafs will be hard pressed to do much with their current blueline. Unless they get a very favourable match up, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them go out in round one again. Their defense is an achilles heel and they've done nothing at all to address it.

It isn't great,goals against last year were 12th ,I think...so not all that terrible.Also,everything is magnified in T.O. I agree it hasn't improved ,but the scoring ability that I expect should make it less obvious.

 

[Confucius]

Loui Eriksson for William Nylander is beneficial for both hockey teams.

LMAO, how is it beneficial for the Leafs? Eriksson has negative value, and for quite some time into the future.

 

[Dustin]

Speaking of understanding how all this works. You do know the Leafs are the only team that can offer Nylander 8 years right?

Thanks. Caught me in a mistake. As I said before in the earlier post 6 or 7 years.