Speculation: Nylander Discussion - Part IV

[Dustin]

It’s not about me here lol. Leafs fans in this thread (see like 5 posts up) see themselves as just logical posters, ignoring the gaslighting, bullying and disrespect they show anyone posting speculation that doesn’t match how they see it. It’s pathetic. I just want speculation, not name calling and “woe is me why’s everyone mean to the poor leafs”

Well as a Leafs fan I'm tired of the just OS him $8.1 over 5, or the pay him what he wants argument even though no NHL operates that way.

Most non Leaf posters in here are here to rile up Leafs homers. Picking one group and saying they are the problem is certainly not correct.

There's been more than enough "logical" posters in any of the 4 Nylander threads now. Non Leafs fans just don't want to here that OS's are rare and that players in this situation almost always end up signing for what the team wants.

 

[The Burdened]

It’s really up to Nylander and what he wants. The Leafs want him on the team, but there are cap concerns.

Signing him at 8m is not a good move for the team. If his heart is set at 8m he’s likely not going to play for Toronto.

Toronto’s priorities are / have been

1. Sign Tavares
2. Sign Matthews
3. Sign Marner
4. Sign Nylander
5. Sign Gardiner

At this point Marner and Matthews contracts are higher priority to get done than Nylander. So really, that’s the team stance I assume, which means Nylander has to make his own decision here. If he doesn’t think he’s being offered a fair deal, he can sit out. I would rather he signed, but it would be a mistake to sign him at 8m, so if that’s the ask, I think Dubasis doing the right thing.

If the Leafs are offering less than 6m, that’s insulting to the player.

Fact is we don’t really know what’s on the table

true.

If I'm Toronto, I wouldn't sign him at 8 x 8 that's terrible business because it shows tremendous weakness for Dubas heading into the Marner & Matthews negotiations. If he caves in to Nylander, then what the hell will Marner ask for especially if he puts up an 80-point season this year? 10 mill?

If I'm a team like Carolina who are still fringe playoff team so the pick will likely be in the mid-late teens, I would send a 7 x 7.5 offer sheet. Toronto would have to think long and hard about it. I don't think they would match it. They'd maybe match at $7,000,000 but I think that extra $500,000 would put it over the top.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

How's Willie looking so far ?

- How do we look? - Chubby?

 

[Hunter368]

What top 4 RHD (ie: give names) would Leafs fan be hoping to land for Nylander?

Should add the word “realistically” to your question.

 

[farshi]

true.

If I'm Toronto, I wouldn't sign him at 8 x 8 that's terrible business because it shows tremendous weakness for Dubas heading into the Marner & Matthews negotiations. If he caves in to Nylander, then what the hell will Marner ask for especially if he puts up an 80-point season this year? 10 mill?

If I'm a team like Carolina who are still fringe playoff team so the pick will likely be in the mid-late teens, I would send a 7 x 7.5 offer sheet. Toronto would have to think long and hard about it. I don't think they would match it. They'd maybe match at $7,000,000 but I think that extra $500,000 would put it over the top.

the player has to sign the offer sheet, if he's asking for 8mill why would he sign a 7.5 one for a team he isn't trying to play for.

 

[FerrisRox]

I kinda disagree. If its the difference between making 6.5x7 or 6.75 x7 and you can play for a contender like the leafs with an endorsment deal already locked up (or playing for Carolina or Arizona for example), youd think there would be some give on the players side .

All of this "endorsement deal" stuff is largely a Leaf fan fantasy. They often talk about this as if it's a big factor. Generally, good players get endorsement deals wherever they are. The Leaf thing helps if you are a mediocre player (think Tie Domi) that plays in Toronto and you might be able to carve out a little niche for yourself but even still these deals are a drop in the bucket. A player puts more money in their pocket playing in a tax free (or more tax friendly market) then they do by having a Canadian Tire campaign or something. In the scheme of things, it's not nearly enough to be a factor.

 

[FerrisRox]

also could be an ego thing.
He's at maximum the #4 guy on Toronto

Put him on Carolina, he becomes the face and can be a go-to guy (not implying he would be their best player obv because Svechnikov is going to be an absolute terror, but Willie is extremely marketable/charasmatic and can speak perfect English unlike Svech).

Sebastian Aho says hello.

 

[nabob]

the player has to sign the offer sheet, if he's asking for 8mill why would he sign a 7.5 one for a team he isn't trying to play for.

Because it’s way better than the $6M Toronto is offering.

Btw, right now he isn’t trying to play for any team.

 

[FerrisRox]

It's funny how "endorsements" are brought up like only Toronto has them.

Marcus Kruger had endorsement deals when the Hawks we're winning Cups. Marcus friggin Kruger.

I know, it's hilarious. All kinds of NHL stars have an endorsement deals. The notion you need to play for the Maple Leafs to land one is hysterical, but there's a contingent of Leaf fans that trot out this nonsense all the time like it's some big motivating factor to sign with Toronto.

 

[Eb]

Should add the word “realistically” to your question.

There is none.

Nylander’s value is in between.

 

[Dustin]

true.

If I'm Toronto, I wouldn't sign him at 8 x 8 that's terrible business because it shows tremendous weakness for Dubas heading into the Marner & Matthews negotiations. If he caves in to Nylander, then what the hell will Marner ask for especially if he puts up an 80-point season this year? 10 mill?

If I'm a team like Carolina who are still fringe playoff team so the pick will likely be in the mid-late teens, I would send a 7 x 7.5 offer sheet. Toronto would have to think long and hard about it. I don't think they would match it. They'd maybe match at $7,000,000 but I think that extra $500,000 would put it over the top.

That's four 1st round picks. The Leafs do that easily.

 

[Lehner]

The leafs have a fantastic core with matthews, tavares, marner, and kadri. They dont need nylander.

Gaudreau @ 6.7, Pastanrk @ 6.6... He doesn't deserve anything over 6 million. Trade him for defense.

You can't look at it that way, the salary cap has gone up.

When Gaudreau signed = 9.25% of cap
When Pastrnak signed = 8.89% of cap

With today's salary cap:
Willie gets 9% of cap = $7.155M
Or if you think he has less value then those 2, lets do 8.5% = $6.8M

 

[The Burdened]

the player has to sign the offer sheet, if he's asking for 8mill why would he sign a 7.5 one for a team he isn't trying to play for.

Nylander & Gross aren't serious about $8,500,000. They came in high so they can negotiate down, just like Toronto likely came in low so they can negotiate up.

More than likely, Toronto ideally wants Nylander at 6.5 and they're not gonna get it; Gross wants 8.5 and he's not gonna get it.

Stands to reason that they could meet in the middle (7 to 7.5), but Toronto likely won't meet in the middle because it messes up their salary structure.

 

[DanM]

I get why we have it, but I really, really, really, hate the salary cap. What an honest piece of shit. Teams should not have to lose players they draft and develop, it's bullshit.

Pasta has no issues with signing for what he did, but Willie needs more. Ehlers signs for what he did, not Willie. Like who the f*** does this kid think he is.

RFA's need a reality check. We are paying for potential, but what if we pay them 8m per and they shit the bed? Sorry please pay me 8 million, but I god damn suck.....

PAY FOR WHAT YOU ARE CURRENTLY WORTH.

Rant over lol

 

[FerrisRox]

NHL players are paid in U.S dollars even if they play in Canada. Before going on a rant perhaps do some research first....

Yes, but a endorsement deal in Canada is paid in Canadian dollars whereas a endorsement deal in the US is paid in US dollars and seeing as how he's talking about endorsement deals...

 

[Randy Randerson]

Everybody has some risk. He is a good bet for 40 goals, but he has been PPG in exactly 1 season, and it wasn't a complete season. He has been injured. He had a very mediocre playoffs this past year. He has an opportunity so alleviate some of those risks this year, but there are no guarantees.

While it is less risk than other players, there is still risk, and way more risk than a player like McDavid.

At over 11m, there is a lot of risk based on what he has accomplished to date.

wait, I thought McDavid had little to no risk? He had only had one 100pt season when he signed his $12.5M contract and had already missed more time than Matthews with injury. Matthews has had the kind of performance and improvement in the NHL that you'd expect from a franchise center, his career pace for goals is around 43/82 games and improving, his career ppg is .92 and improving. Both of his comparable players had missed notable time with injury when they had signed, I don't see more risk in Matthews than either Eichel or McDavid in meeting expectations. The expectations for Matthews are lower than McDavid, but that would be accounted for in the inflation-adjusted AAV

 

[The Burdened]

That's four 1st round picks. The Leafs do that easily.

is it? I thought it was only 1?

2018 Offer Sheet Compensation

 

[bluedevil58]

I get why we have it, but I really, really, really, hate the salary cap. What an honest piece of ****. Teams should not have to lose players they draft and develop, it's bull****.

Large market teams should not be able to pull an 03 Detroit and buy the cup with 4 lines of all star forwards.

 

[DanM]

Large market teams should not be able to pull an 03 Detroit and buy the cup with 4 lines of all star forwards.

Like I said, I get why we have it lol

But I just hate it

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

If Matthews gets over 11 (which is highly unlikely), then he is at least a 50 goal, 100 point player. Considering that 30-goal, 40-point gap, the premium you pay for the top players in the league, the premium you pay for goal-scorers, the extra year's rising cap, the extra UFA years you'd be buying, the better defense, the bigger role/responsibility that Matthews has, etc., then that gap in price would make perfect sense.

Matthews could remain a point a game player and still might get paid north of 11M.

 

[Strangle]

Nylander & Gross aren't serious about $8,500,000. They came in high so they can negotiate down, just like Toronto likely came in low so they can negotiate up.

More than likely, Toronto ideally wants Nylander at 6.5 and they're not gonna get it; Gross wants 8.5 and he's not gonna get it.

Stands to reason that they could meet in the middle (7 to 7.5), but Toronto likely won't meet in the middle because it messes up their salary structure.

This hits the nail on the head, imo

 

[Dustin]

All of this "endorsement deal" stuff is largely a Leaf fan fantasy. They often talk about this as if it's a big factor. Generally, good players get endorsement deals wherever they are. The Leaf thing helps if you are a mediocre player (think Tie Domi) that plays in Toronto and you might be able to carve out a little niche for yourself but even still these deals are a drop in the bucket. A player puts more money in their pocket playing in a tax free (or more tax friendly market) then they do by having a Canadian Tire campaign or something. In the scheme of things, it's not nearly enough to be a factor.

I agree. Just like taxes are not a big reason why players sign for certain teams.

 

[DRW204]

.

Nylander & Gross aren't serious about $8,500,000. They came in high so they can negotiate down, just like Toronto likely came in low so they can negotiate up.

More than likely, Toronto ideally wants Nylander at 6.5 and they're not gonna get it; Gross wants 8.5 and he's not gonna get it.

Stands to reason that they could meet in the middle (7.5), but Toronto likely won't meet in the middle because it messes up their salary structure.

Assuming they meet in the middle @ 7.5M and a salary cap of 82.5M next year, the Leafs will have roughly 25.6M in cap room next year with 12 players signed. AM and Marner likely takes up 19M (11M + 8M?) . id assume Marleau would be the first to go?

 

[Elias GOATtersson]

Well as a Leafs fan I'm tired of the just OS him $8.1 over 5, or the pay him what he wants argument even though no NHL operates that way.

Most non Leaf posters in here are here to rile up Leafs homers. Picking one group and saying they are the problem is certainly not correct.

There's been more than enough "logical" posters in any of the 4 Nylander threads now. Non Leafs fans just don't want to here that OS's are rare and that players in this situation almost always end up signing for what the team wants.

That’s fair, I understand where it’s coming from. There are definitely trolls on the other side, and I think honestly the discussion has pretty much hit the wall so it’s not like the thread getting derailed is very preventable.

6 leafs fans being jerks in the same way is a lot more noticeable than 6 random team fans being jerks in different ways (and honestly i think other team fans are trolling a lot lazier so it seems easier for me to ignore, but that’s prob just my bias..). Leafs fans are more invested in this, so IMO they’re reacting with more emotion. I just don’t like seeing people gaslighting others for speculation using the same information as everyone else.

I hope this makes sense, I hate trying to put together posts on mobile.

 

[FerrisRox]

That's four 1st round picks. The Leafs do that easily.

No it's not. It has to be over $8.1 million to be four first round picks.