Speculation: Nylander Discussion - Part IV

[Mickey Marner]

If they are having this much trouble signing Nylander what's going to happen when they have to resign Marner and Matthews? Matthews doesn't seem keen on taking a discount. How do you get away with paying Nylander only 6.5 when you're going to be forced to pay Matthews 11+? The gap between the two surely isn't that large?

Matthews will likely get a bonus-laden contract that pays him 15,000,000 July 1st, 2019. Hard to say no to that.

 

[DRW204]

Matthews will likely get a bonus-laden contract that pays him 15,000,000 July 1st, 2019. Hard to say no to that.

his cap hit likely still exceeds 10M no matter how the pay is structured

 

[Brock Radunske]

Pretty accurate!

I love having all this talent. Hand wringing over the cap is an exercise in futility. We're in a great position.

If Nylander is worth 8, and Marner is worth 9.5 (according to HF), I am really excited to see what some of the guys they consider superior get.

Boeser will get 10
Hischier will get 11
Pettersson will get 12
Provorov will get 10
Barzal will get 12

And that's comparing them to the current cap, might even go higher if the cap goes up.

"Yeah, but uh it's like different for them because, uh like reasons?"
-Hfboard in a nut-shell

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

it doesn't mean you go out and overpay him for what you hope he becomes at some point.

That's primarily how teams operate now. If Nylander is "worth" 6.3 now you overpay hoping that in year 3 it's a bargain. It was done with Reilly and Kadri and worked out well as both players are worth more than what they're being paid.

 

[Snuuzi]

This is too funny, after the leafs fans hyping him up the last 2 years with ridiculous hyperbole they now have to downplay his game because they're too cheap to pay him

Yea their fans aren't exactly showing their best side. Both fans, hockeyclub and media turns on a player for not wanting to get fked in the ass just so other players can get paid later. Doubt many players gonna want to come to toronto after this (unless their 11mil UFAs lol).

 

[Nizdizzle]

Pretty accurate!

I love having all this talent. Hand wringing over the cap is an exercise in futility. We're in a great position.

If Nylander is worth 8, and Marner is worth 9.5 (according to HF), I am really excited to see what some of the guys they consider superior get.

Boeser will get 10
Hischier will get 11
Pettersson will get 12
Provorov will get 10
Barzal will get 12

And that's comparing them to the current cap, might even go higher if the cap goes up.

You forgot to adjust those contracts for inflation. Add another arbitrary 1-2 million onto each, like most folks have done for Nylander.

 

[Brock Radunske]

If they are having this much trouble signing Nylander what's going to happen when they have to resign Marner and Matthews? Matthews doesn't seem keen on taking a discount.

Who cares, though? These players are all RFAs so the Leafs own their rights. It's not like they're UFAs walking.
If all of Nylander, Marner and Matthews want way too much, fine. Trade them for huge hauls of assets.
At the end of the day, the Leafs will still have a Franchise 1C, an elite 2C, a 1D, a 1G and as a result of them movingN/M/M, an insane crop of top-end prospect coming up.
That's WORST CASE.
The Leafs are fine great now and will be fine great going forward.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Well since any bridge is pretty much betting on the player the leafs could do three and then offer him what he's worth after that or trade him if he wants to arbitrate to Ufa.

The only danger is he ends up being worth more than seven or whatever he would sign for long term atm now . And then he doesn't factor into Matthew's or marners contracts.

And what is the incentive for the Leafs to do that?

They currently hold all of the cards. They currently don't even really need him. Why would they give up leverage, include future leverage in Marner/Matthews negotiations, let Nylander go to arbitration and threaten UFA, only to pay him even more on a long-term contract during a bigger cap crunch, or be forced to trade him in a less advantageous scenario?

 

[ER89]

6.5m what a lowball for the great Nylander, I'll echo it again - cheap.

Just because you say dumb things twice doesn't make them any smarter.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That's primarily how teams operate now. If Nylander is "worth" 6.3 now you overpay hoping that in year 3 it's a bargain. It was done with Reilly and Kadri and worked out well as both players are worth more than what they're being paid.

Yes, that is how RFA contracts work, but Nylander is not worth 6.3m on a 1-year deal as a 60-point RFA winger coming off his ELC. Not even close. He is only worth mid 6s on a long-term deal, because that factors in fair development and progression and rising cap in later years. He could develop more or less than that price correlates to, but that's the risk you take as a team for cost certainty, and as a player for financial security.

Kadri and Rielly both took discounts relative to their worth at time of signing, not even including expected progression/development. Both were underpaid in their 1st year.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

And what is the incentive for the Leafs to do that?

They currently hold all of the cards. They currently don't even really need him. Why would they give up leverage, include future leverage in Marner/Matthews negotiations, let Nylander go to arbitration and threaten UFA, only to pay him even more on a long-term contract during a bigger cap crunch, or be forced to trade him in a less advantageous scenario?

This has been brought up several times in this thread and it's simply wrong. You don't subtract a talented 2nd line forward and skip a beat over any extended period of time.

 

[Seanaconda]

And what is the incentive for the Leafs to do that?

They currently hold all of the cards. They currently don't even really need him. Why would they give up leverage, include future leverage in Marner/Matthews negotiations, let Nylander go to arbitration and threaten UFA, only to pay him even more on a long-term contract during a bigger cap crunch, or be forced to trade him in a less advantageous scenario?

Well other than offer sheets or signing somewhere else I guess they do . They could only offer nylander a 3 mill x 8 year contract if they wanted .

but the nylanders also have the money to not have to worry about playing hardball either

A cheap bridge wouldn't be that bad if they wanted to go for a cup the next couple years . Who knows what the cap will be in four years . But really who knows what they will agree to.

 

[Brock Radunske]

This has been brought up several times in this thread and it's simply wrong. You don't subtract a talented 2nd line forward and skip a beat over any extended period of time.

How many "2nd line forward" on your team put up Nylander numbers in their 1st two years?

 

[Master P]

Come home Willy

 

[hyduK]

his cap hit likely still exceeds 10M no matter how the pay is structured

10M would be a bargain. Dubas signs that without blinking and yells no takebacks.

Matthews is getting no less than Tavares at this point. Could be quite a bit more if he has a good season (Leafs not having Nylander signed probably benefits them a bit here, that's points lost for Matthews).

 

[Sky04]

Just because you say dumb things twice doesn't make them any smarter.

Don't get angry because your players don't want to get bent over backwards because you signed an overpriced UFA.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If they are having this much trouble signing Nylander what's going to happen when they have to resign Marner and Matthews? Matthews doesn't seem keen on taking a discount. How do you get away with paying Nylander only 6.5 when you're going to be forced to pay Matthews 11+? The gap between the two surely isn't that large?

If Matthews gets over 11 (which is highly unlikely), then he is at least a 50 goal, 100 point player. Considering that 30-goal, 40-point gap, the premium you pay for the top players in the league, the premium you pay for goal-scorers, the extra year's rising cap, the extra UFA years you'd be buying, the better defense, the bigger role/responsibility that Matthews has, etc., then that gap in price would make perfect sense.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

How many "2nd line forward" on your team put up Nylander numbers in their 1st two years?

Not sure what that has to do with my statement but feel free to run with it.

The Leafs will miss Nylander if he's out for any extended period of time.

 

[hyduK]

If Matthews gets over 11 (which is highly unlikely), then he is at least a 50 goal, 100 point player. Considering that 30-goal, 40-point gap, the premium you pay for the top players in the league, the premium you pay for goal-scorers, the extra year's rising cap, the extra UFA years you'd be buying, the better defense, the bigger role/responsibility that Matthews has, etc., then that gap in price would make perfect sense.

Not sure why >11m is highly unlikely.

Eichel got 10m. Cap is going up and AM has outproduced Eichel at every step.

I'd say >11m is all but guaranteed. 11m is the absolute lowest he would sign for at this point barring a travesty of a season.

 

[Randy Randerson]

If Matthews gets over 11 (which is highly unlikely), then he is at least a 50 goal, 100 point player. Considering that 30-goal, 40-point gap, the premium you pay for the top players in the league, the premium you pay for goal-scorers, the extra year's rising cap, the extra UFA years you'd be buying, the better defense, the bigger role/responsibility that Matthews has, etc., then that gap in price would make perfect sense.

$11M+ is definitely in play for Matthews - McDavid @ $12.5M and Eichel at $10M are his comps, and you add a year of inflation for his contract. If Matthews takes considerably less than $11M it's because he wants a team that can win, if he's getting paid market its $11M+

 

[dubey]

Don't get angry because your players don't want to get bent over backwards because you signed an overpriced UFA.

Meh

Worse case we flip him for an actual need. Tavares signing just keeps on giving

 

[Elias GOATtersson]

gaslighting other hockey fans on hfboards isn’t going to make your players sign for cheaper.

 

[voxel]

$11M+ is definitely in play for Matthews - McDavid @ $12.5M and Eichel at $10M are his comps, and you add a year of inflation for his contract. If Matthews takes considerably less than $11M it's because he wants a team that can win, if he's getting paid market its $11M+

Yeah if he takes less than $11M/yr it's a "hometown" discount.

I have no idea why Matthews, Marner, Laine haven't signed extensions yet. McDavid signed a year before RFA. You'd think GMs would be in better position before the cap rises.

 

[TOGuy14]

but we don't have doogie howser as our gm and a hockey executive who signed an offersheet when he played then asks current players to take a hometown discounts.

What does that have to do with anything.

Shanahan played at time when RFAs made peanuts and there was no salary cap. The scenarios are completely different

 

[Dekes For Days]

This has been brought up several times in this thread and it's simply wrong. You don't subtract a talented 2nd line forward and skip a beat over any extended period of time.

Except when you have 3 elite players better than them that can carry your offense, and some of the best forward depth in the league, with his line and current replacement playing great.

Even in the worst case scenario where that line struggles and we lose a few extra games we wouldn't have, who cares? All it does it lower Matthews' contract. Are Montreal, Ottawa, Detroit, or Buffalo realistically going to knock us out of the playoffs this year?

If Nylander doesn't sign by December 1st and sits out the year, then maybe it hurts us a bit in the playoffs, assuming we make no other moves. However, it would seem unlikely that a player destroying his reputation and future over money is going to throw away 6-7 million only to be in the exact same position next year, except for the fact that he'd be priority #3.