Speculation: Nylander Discussion - Part IV

[Alklha]

What about Ehlers? His deal kicks in this year (same as Nylander's will, should he sign) so you don't need to adjust for cap inflation, and their production has been similar. Why can't that be used as the direct comparable?

The Leafs can use whatever they want as a comparable, one isn't right and one isn't wrong.

However, if the Leafs want a long term deal then they can't pick a discount contract and blindly argue that that is where the market is. His agent will laugh and tell them that he never would have allowed Ehlers to sign that deal when he has X, Y & Z as comparables.

A discount contract doesn't set the market.

You're cherry picking your stats dude...

Pastrnak signed a 6yr x 8.89% after a 34G, 70P in 75 games and a decent playoffs... Nylander wants 10% after a 20G, 60P campaign and a rather poor playoffs...

You don't get a long term contract on the back of one season, and while the Leafs can argue that Pastrňák had a more impressive season the year directly before his extension, his agent can argue that Nylander has a higher floor and is a natural centre who provides a more complete game and flexibility going forward.

As for his demands, I didn't say he was worth $8m. Just that he doesn't really have a reason to sign a long term deal at under $7m.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Just because he's a comparable doesn't mean much. The big issue is that say Nylander signs for that comparable, has a monster season and sees Marner and Mathews cash in while he's holding the bag on a comparable. That's not a good situation to be in for the kid.

...and if he signs for that comparable and has a crappy season?

 

[Gurilla]

Shanahan thought he was doing something with those comments, they backfired pretty badly. Matthews comments about having agents suggests nobodies interested in any hometown discounts.

 

[MyBudJT]

You don't get a long term contract on the back of one season, and while the Leafs can argue that Pastrňák had a more impressive season the year directly before his extension, his agent can argue that Nylander has a higher floor and is a natural centre who provides a more complete game and flexibility going forward.

As for his demands, I didn't say he was worth $8m. Just that he doesn't really have a reason to sign a long term deal at under $7m.

One year isn't long enough, but two years is? Sounds pretty subjective dude.

If you want to look at it from another angle...
Pastrnak showed greater progression adapting to the NHL game. Pastrnak went from 0.5 PPG to nearly 1PPG in one season.

Nylander went from .75PPG to 0.75PPG in one season...

If I were a betting man after each respective seasons, I'd bet on Pastrnak... Nylander shouldn't be getting Pastrnak money... at least not yet.

 

[Bonesy9]

What if the Leafs sign Nylander to a one year deal at 9 mil (or more). Then sign a 5 year extension at 6.5 mil.

41.5 mil/ 6 = 6.9 mil/year over 6.

Closer to Nylander's number and closer to the Leafs number.

Also helps the leafs with signing Matthews and Marner.

If they increase Nylanders number to 11 mil then the aav over 6 becomes 7.25/year. Which is almost an even split between the asking prices.

 

[Divine]

Shanahan thought he was doing something with those comments, they backfired pretty badly. Matthews comments about having agents suggests nobodies interested in any hometown discounts.

Not really. What did you expect Matthews to say, we would welcome a hometown discount to stay here? Even if he was willing to take one, it would undermine his negotiation to say so. The comments, while probably unnecessary, have no bearing on negotiations. Unless of course, you think that players will now be after more due to the comments.

 

[Confucius]

Shanahan thought he was doing something with those comments, they backfired pretty badly. Matthews comments about having agents suggests nobodies interested in any hometown discounts.

do you really think Mathews is going to come out publicly and say "Yep I'm going to take less, come on and sign Willy"

 

[Frank the Tank]

People really love to use comparisons and not bother adjusting for the cap. $6m on a long term deal was something that the Oilers started back when the cap was under $65m. You adjust that for cap inflation and you're looking at ~$7.4m. I'm not saying that that is what Nylander is worth, but that $6m doesn't just remain the standard forever.

Pastrňák had 123 points in 173 games (0.71 PPG) when he signed for 6 years at $6.66m.

Nylander has 135 points in 185 games (0.73 PPG). Adjust the $6.66m for the rise in the cap and you are at ~$7.05m.

Nylander doesn't really have any reason to consider signing a long term deal for under $7m, particularly if he feels he is a centre being asked to play a position that is less valuable in contract negotiations.

If the Leafs want players to take discounts then they really need to get Matthews to lead the way in that department. Little reason for the likes of Nylander to consider it if Matthews isn't.

A bridge is the only thing that really makes sense, but the Leafs will hate that because the number could be $8.5m in 2 years.

The Oilers did not start that trend. The first $6M/season contract for a player coming off his entry deal was offered by Carolina to Jeff Skinner. That set the market for Hall and Seguin, who signed after Skinner. One could argue that the Tavares and Duchene deals above $5M/season signed the previous summer were the precursors to Skinner's contract

 

[Divine]

What if the Leafs sign Nylander to a one year deal at 9 mil (or more). Then sign a 5 year extension at 6.5 mil.

41.5 mil/ 6 = 6.9 mil/year over 6.

Closer to Nylander's number and closer to the Leafs number.

Also helps the leafs with signing Matthews and Marner.

If they increase Nylanders number to 11 mil then the aav over 6 becomes 7.25/year. Which is almost an even split between the asking prices.

In theory it makes sense, but it's not practical. Leafs have 12M in cap space this year, and could give him 12M for 1 year, and then bring the average down. The issue is, it's not exactly legal or binding, so it would have to be a handshake agreement. Also, what if Nylander is on a 100 point pace next season, are him and his agent still going to take less? They might say screw it and circumstances change and the Leafs have no recourse.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Add a big fish like Tavares seems like great move at first, but if it means that you cant lock up your young core, then it could affect the team in a negative way long term.

It seems like a great move at first, and then it continues seeming like a great move when you realize you added one of the best players in the league, who is dying to play for you, for a good price, during his prime years, during your cup window, and you still have all of the assets you had before, which you can decide to keep or move as you please.

Nylander's demands and Leaf's desire to pay them has nothing to do with Tavares. Leafs wouldn't and shouldn't overpay Nylander, regardless of who else we have. Now that we have 3 other elite players that are better than him though, we definitely shouldn't be bowing to his unrealistic demands.

Tavares hasnt showed earlier in his career that hes a winner and being the second best paid in Nhl , the contract to me so far has negative value, you also need to upgrade the backend.

Actually, Tavares has won when he's not on horrible teams with no direction that expect him to do everything alone like the NYI.

The contract doesn't have negative value. This is what these type of players are re-signing for, let alone UFA. As the best UFA in ages, he could have made much more, and that has been confirmed.

Elite players who sign in UFA usually are some of the highest paid players for that year, until the next group of high-end players with UFA status signs/re-signs the next year.

Also, Leafs GA was perfectly fine last year, and it is a young, growing group with natural progression and prospects coming up. Defense isn't just about those 6 players, and we lost 4 of our worst defensive players last year, and upgraded them. If outside upgrades on D are necessary once we've seen what we have, there will be plenty of cap space, Nylander or not, in 2 years time (or next year with pretty simple moves).

hes a good player for any team but thinking hes the saviour and dragging teams to success, that hasnt happened yet.

No player drags his team to success single-handedly, not even Crosby or McDavid.

Regardless, he doesn't have to be the savior on the Leafs.

Losing a young Nylander over a aging Tavares and his contract could end up being a very bad decision when looking back in 4-5 years.

Actually, it would almost certainly be a net positive, since we'd not only have the better player in Tavares, but we'd also have the assets/players that we get back for Nylander.

 

[Maplebeasts]

What if the Leafs sign Nylander to a one year deal at 9 mil (or more). Then sign a 5 year extension at 6.5 mil.

41.5 mil/ 6 = 6.9 mil/year over 6.

Closer to Nylander's number and closer to the Leafs number.

Also helps the leafs with signing Matthews and Marner.

If they increase Nylanders number to 11 mil then the aav over 6 becomes 7.25/year. Which is almost an even split between the asking prices.

It's a creative solution, the only thing is I don't think it's possible under the CBA to sign a new contract, and then an extension immediately after.

 

[varano]

Shanahan thought he was doing something with those comments, they backfired pretty badly. Matthews comments about having agents suggests nobodies interested in any hometown discounts.

No it doesn't. It suggests that Auston Matthews has an agent.

 

[Seanaconda]

What if the Leafs sign Nylander to a one year deal at 9 mil (or more). Then sign a 5 year extension at 6.5 mil.

41.5 mil/ 6 = 6.9 mil/year over 6.

Closer to Nylander's number and closer to the Leafs number.

Also helps the leafs with signing Matthews and Marner.

If they increase Nylanders number to 11 mil then the aav over 6 becomes 7.25/year. Which is almost an even split between the asking prices.

Wouldn't work cuz his qualifying offer would be over nine he would be an ufa

 

[varano]

What if the Leafs sign Nylander to a one year deal at 9 mil (or more). Then sign a 5 year extension at 6.5 mil.

41.5 mil/ 6 = 6.9 mil/year over 6.

Closer to Nylander's number and closer to the Leafs number.

Also helps the leafs with signing Matthews and Marner.

If they increase Nylanders number to 11 mil then the aav over 6 becomes 7.25/year. Which is almost an even split between the asking prices.

That wouldn't add up because he would still be an RFA and his qualifying offer would be ridiculous. Its become clear that nylander is a money guy so I wouldn't trust him with signing an extension at a lower deal

 

[Confucius]

In theory it makes sense, but it's not practical. Leafs have 12M in cap space this year, and could give him 12M for 1 year, and then bring the average down. The issue is, it's not exactly legal or binding, so it would have to be a handshake agreement. Also, what if Nylander is on a 100 point pace next season, are him and his agent still going to take less? They might say screw it and circumstances change and the Leafs have no recourse.

if he had a one year deal for this season, is he not allowed to sign an extension right away for next season? Similar to Mathews and Marner now being allowed to sign an extension for next year.

 

[Brock Radunske]

They amount of mental gymnastics that non-Leafs fans are going through to make it seem like the Leafs are doomed is embarrassing and frankly pathetic.
And it also tells me they're scared.

 

[Divine]

if he had a one year deal for this season, is he not allowed to sign an extension right away for next season? Similar to Mathews and Marner now being allowed to sign an extension for next year.

No, it's after Jan 1st. Also, the Leafs would have to qualify him at his current salary to keep him an RFA assuming he doesn't sign. So he's giving up 11M a year for all the preceding RFA years I believe. You would really have to trust Nylander and his agent a lot to risk something like that.

 

[DopeyFish]

They amount of mental gymnastics that non-Leafs fans are going through to make it seem like the Leafs are doomed is embarrassing and frankly pathetic.
And it also tells me they're scared.

people don't realize that leafs can manage with even the high numbers of caphits, they are just trying to save futures which it would cost to remove some of the fat. futures are important to the sustain part of the plan.

 

[Alklha]

One year isn't long enough, but two years is? Sounds pretty subjective dude.

If you want to look at it from another angle...
Pastrnak showed greater progression adapting to the NHL game. Pastrnak went from 0.5 PPG to nearly 1PPG in one season.

Nylander went from .75PPG to 0.75PPG in one season...

If I were a betting man after each respective seasons, I'd bet on Pastrnak... Nylander shouldn't be getting Pastrnak money... at least not yet.

And Pastrňák went from two seasons at around 0.5 PPG to one at 0.93 PPG. Just because he was young doesn't mean that is the trend going forward. While he was better than the 0.5PPG, that 0.93 season could easily have been an outlier and the contract he signed reflects that.

It's not really subjective either. No GM walks into a contract negotiation and says "oh you were PPG last season, even though you were never close to that before, we are going to give you a long term deal paying you as the PPG you very obviously are!"

When a player has 2 full NHL seasons doing the same thing, it's far easier to argue that that is his floor and his contract should reflect that.

Would I have rather had Pastrňák in his contract year than Nylander? Yeah, but that doesn't really change the valid arguments his agents will make. The reasonable response is a bridge and telling him to go out and prove that he is worth more than they are offering.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Leafs can use whatever they want as a comparable, one isn't right and one isn't wrong.

Well, it's probably more right to use the comparable that was drafted the same year as you, drafted 1 pick away from you, who is a similar size as you, who plays the same position as you, who plays the same role as you, who has scored at almost an identical pace as you (within 2 points over 2 years). In fact, Ehlers has more goals over that time, and an extra year of experience. We technically should be paying him less, but we're not.

A discount contract doesn't set the market.

There is nothing to support it being a "discount". It is market value for an RFA of that caliber, and a wild over-payment by one of the most badly managed teams in the league for a better player is not a better contract precedent.

You don't get a long term contract on the back of one season, and while the Leafs can argue that Pastrňák had a more impressive season the year directly before his extension, his agent can argue that Nylander has a higher floor and is a natural centre who provides a more complete game and flexibility going forward.

Lots of high-end players play center before hitting the NHL. He is not a center. He will not be a center for likely the duration of that contract. He will be paid for what he is, not what he thinks maybe he could be on another team with no justification.

Pastrnak had a significantly better season than anything Nylander has done, once he got the same opportunities Nylander was getting. I'm not sure how you argue that Nylander has the better floor, provides a more complete game, or provides more flexibility.

 

[LeafsNation75]

As I said earlier, Shanahan's comments were extremely rich considering he did not when he was a RFA as Nylander is.


Leafs’ William Nylander is following the Shana-plan in negotiations | The Star

At that time the rules about what teams could get for RFA compensation if an offer sheet was not matched was a lot different than what we see today. There is a reason why the last time an RFA signed an offer sheet was Ryan O'Reilly and it was way back on February 28, 2013. Plus the last time an offer sheet was signed and not matched was in July 2007 when the Ducks did not match the offer sheet signed by Dustin Penner from the Oilers.

 

[MyBudJT]

And Pastrňák went from two seasons at around 0.5 PPG to one at 0.93 PPG. Just because he was young doesn't mean that is the trend going forward. While he was better than the 0.5PPG, that 0.93 season could easily have been an outlier and the contract he signed reflects that.

It's not really subjective either. No GM walks into a contract negotion and says "oh you were PPG last season, even though you were never close to that, we are going to give you a long term deal paying you as the PPG you very obviously are!"

When a player has 2 full NHL seasons doing the same thing, it's far easier to argue that that is his floor and his contract should reflect that.

Would I have rather had Pastrňák in his contract year than Nylander? Yeah, but that doesn't really change the valid arguments his agents will make. The reasonable response is a bridge and telling him to go out and prove that he is worth more than they are offering.

I don't think you understand or are incorporating development into your predictions then...

1) Development isn't linear.... but young players DO develop. 20 year old Nylander has no bearing on 22YO Nylander, on 23YO Nylander, on 24YO Nylander.... He is expected to improve.... The fact that we didn't see vast improvement between his 21YO and 22YO seasons IS a red flag.

2) Going off of what I've already stated... why should Nylander's 21YO season have any bearing on his cap demands now...? He shouldn't be the player he was when he's 21... he SHOULD be better then that now... Right...? Then why are we using that season for a contract demand?

SAME concepts goes for Pastrnak...

With players coming off of an 3 (or 4) year ELC contract... that first year or two typically holds significantly less weight compared to that final year.

 

[Willy Stylez]

Ehlers and Larkin aren't helping Nylander's case here, Ehlers at $6 million per and Larkin at $6.1 million per. Doubt Nylander gets all that much more then them.

What AAV would Larkin get on a 8 year deal you think?

 

[shortfuze]

Hope your right.

I’ll be honest. Me too.

 

[Seanaconda]

I don't think you understand or are incorporating development into your predictions then...

1) Development isn't linear.... but young players DO develop. 20 year old Nylander has no bearing on 22YO Nylander, on 23YO Nylander, on 24YO Nylander.... He is expected to improve.... The fact that we didn't see vast improvement between his 21YO and 22YO seasons IS a red flag.

2) Going off of what I've already stated... why should Nylander's 21YO season have any bearing on his cap demands now...? He shouldn't be the player he was when he's 21... he SHOULD be better then that now... Right...? Then why are we using that season for a contract demand?

SAME concepts goes for Pastrnak...

With players coming off of an 3 (or 4) year ELC contract... that first year or two typically holds significantly less weight compared to that final year.

Kuz had 77 and then down to 59 before his extension didn't he ? Development isn't linear but that ones opposite and he got 7.8