Speculation: Nylander Discussion - Part IV

[HaNotsri]

So you think in a contract negotiation where you have no leverage the pay gets higher the longer it goes?

How does he have no leverage? The team is worse without him and unsigned he’s worth less in a trade.
He can increase his price to make back what he is losing. The Leafs want a cup this year and it’s less likely to happen if Nylander doesn’t sign.

 

[McClelland]

You are more concerned with all of this than any of the Leafs fans.
I'd take care your own house, first. It needs some major upgrades.

,

But the guy has lot of good points in his posts, sadly you havent!

Add a big fish like Tavares seems like great move at first, but if it means that you cant lock up your young core, then it could affect the team in a negative way long term.

Tavares hasnt showed earlier in his career that hes a winner and being the second best paid in Nhl , the contract to me so far has negative value, you also need to upgrade the backend.

Tavares has 2 1st round exits and 1 2 round exit to show in 9 seasons playing in the Nhl! He won the OG 2014 4 GP 4 0 0,
He also won Wc cup a couple of years ago 6 gp 1 3 4 p, hes a good player for any team but thinking hes the saviour and dragging teams to success, that hasnt happened yet.

Losing a young Nylander over a aging Tavares and his contract could end up being a very bad decision when looking back in 4-5 years.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

If I were the agent, I would tack that on. Nylander has options here. Start soliciting offer sheets, play in Europe, or sit, or ask for a trade if things do not look like they are progressing. All he is doing is following the Shanaplan of looking after himself as Shanahan did when he was 22 and signed as a free agent for big bucks with the Blues. Can't argue with a player looking out for himself as Shanahan did exactly the same thing when he was younger too.

So you are actually are standing by the statement that the longer a contract dispute goes on the higher the contract will be?

You realize that’s literally the opposite of how these things work?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Both sides need to compromise, not just the player. Nylander wouldn't just sit out, he can go play in Europe for 2 seasons and IIRC he can become a UFA. Another thing he could do is **** the Leafs and sign a 2 year offer sheet that doesn't give the compensation he's worth, where year 2 has a jacked up AAV forcing the Leafs to either lose him for less than he's worth, or match and deal and in two years have to choose to not qualify him at the end of the contract, or give him a large QO that he could accept. So. let's not pretend like he has no chips to play.

I'm willing to guess that most Leafs fans would be unhappy with Nylander being moved for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd if it were from a playoff team. Just imagine him signing an offer sheet with Nashville for 2 years, 7.5 AAV (year 1 being 6 million and year 2 being 9 million).

1. Nylander wouldn't be a UFA.
2. Nylander would lose more money going to Europe to play for 2 years than he would taking a long term deal in the 6s over what he wants.
3. Nylander would never sign a 2-year contract, as that means he has no contract during a likely lockout.
4. Nashville doesn't have the draft picks to offer sheet.
5. Nashville would barely have the room for Nylander at that price, and they have multiple RFAs (including Fiala, good luck with his negotiation if you pay Nylander 7.5m) and Pekka Rinne to sign next offseason.
6. While I guess he could take 1-year deals every year at his QO, that is a HUGE financial risk to take as a young player, and would probably result in him being traded to a pretty bad team, away from endorsements, friends, success, and the countless opportunities to grow his value and make extra money.
7. Why would a team sign him to a deal like that, when they could be stuck with a 9.9m QO? What team has the draft picks, the current cap space, and the future cap space to do that without negatively affecting their own team or ability to sign players?

Nylander has no leverage. He is getting horrible advice, and is either going to screw up his future, or at the very least, give up all the extra money he'll get out of this standoff, by doing the standoff (while still damaging his reputation).

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

How does he have no leverage? The team is worse without him and unsigned he’s worth less in a trade.
He can increase his price to make back what he is losing. The Leafs want a cup this year and it’s less likely to happen if Nylander doesn’t sign.

Because he either signs or doesn’t play in the NHL? It’s not some new thing that RFA’s have little to no leverage in the current CBA.

 

[Alklha]

People really love to use comparisons and not bother adjusting for the cap. $6m on a long term deal was something that the Oilers started back when the cap was under $65m. You adjust that for cap inflation and you're looking at ~$7.4m. I'm not saying that that is what Nylander is worth, but that $6m doesn't just remain the standard forever.

Pastrňák had 123 points in 173 games (0.71 PPG) when he signed for 6 years at $6.66m.

Nylander has 135 points in 185 games (0.73 PPG). Adjust the $6.66m for the rise in the cap and you are at ~$7.05m.

Nylander doesn't really have any reason to consider signing a long term deal for under $7m, particularly if he feels he is a centre being asked to play a position that is less valuable in contract negotiations.

If the Leafs want players to take discounts then they really need to get Matthews to lead the way in that department. Little reason for the likes of Nylander to consider it if Matthews isn't.

A bridge is the only thing that really makes sense, but the Leafs will hate that because the number could be $8.5m in 2 years.

 

[Nizdizzle]

People really love to use comparisons and not bother adjusting for the cap. $6m on a long term deal was something that the Oilers started back when the cap was under $65m. You adjust that for cap inflation and you're looking at ~$7.4m. I'm not saying that that is what Nylander is worth, but that $6m doesn't just remain the standard forever.

Pastrňák had 123 points in 173 games (0.71 PPG) when he signed for 6 years at $6.66m.

Nylander has 135 points in 185 games (0.73 PPG). Adjust the $6.66m for the rise in the cap and you are at ~$7.05m.

Nylander doesn't really have any reason to consider signing a long term deal for under $7m, particularly if he feels he is a centre being asked to play a position that is less valuable in contract negotiations.

If the Leafs want players to take discounts then they really need to get Matthews to lead the way in that department. Little reason for the likes of Nylander to consider it if Matthews isn't.

A bridge is the only thing that really makes sense, but the Leafs will hate that because the number could be $8.5m in 2 years.

What about Ehlers? His deal kicks in this year (same as Nylander's will, should he sign) so you don't need to adjust for cap inflation, and their production has been similar. Why can't that be used as the direct comparable?

 

[MyBudJT]

People really love to use comparisons and not bother adjusting for the cap. $6m on a long term deal was something that the Oilers started back when the cap was under $65m. You adjust that for cap inflation and you're looking at ~$7.4m. I'm not saying that that is what Nylander is worth, but that $6m doesn't just remain the standard forever.

Pastrňák had 123 points in 173 games (0.71 PPG) when he signed for 6 years at $6.66m.

Nylander has 135 points in 185 games (0.73 PPG). Adjust the $6.66m for the rise in the cap and you are at ~$7.05m.

Nylander doesn't really have any reason to consider signing a long term deal for under $7m, particularly if he feels he is a centre being asked to play a position that is less valuable in contract negotiations.

If the Leafs want players to take discounts then they really need to get Matthews to lead the way in that department. Little reason for the likes of Nylander to consider it if Matthews isn't.

A bridge is the only thing that really makes sense, but the Leafs will hate that because the number could be $8.5m in 2 years.

You're cherry picking your stats dude...

Pastrnak signed a 6yr x 8.89% after a 34G, 70P in 75 games and a decent playoffs... Nylander wants 10% after a 20G, 60P campaign and a rather poor playoffs...

 

[Brunomics]

I don't see why teams don't go the 5 years 8 million aav route. A 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for Nylander is basically robbery. And if the Leafs match it screws up their cap so I don't see them doing it.

 

[paulhiggins]

Starting to wonder if we should just let this drag past Dec 1 and use the cap space to acquire a right defenceman and a soon-to-be-UFA right winger for the rest of the year. Try again after the playoffs are over when his antics won't be a distraction to the team and the fans. Give him another 2 weeks where the offer is still on the table and then retract it. Hardball vs. hardball.

 

[Brunomics]

You're cherry picking your stats dude...

Pastrnak signed a 6yr x 8.89% after a 34G, 70P in 75 games and a decent playoffs... Nylander wants 10% after a 20G, 60P campaign and a rather poor playoffs...

He's still only 22 with a hell of a lot of potential. Back to back 60 point seasons to start his NHL career is awesome no matter how you cut it.

 

[MyBudJT]

He's still only 22 with a hell of a lot of potential. Back to back 60 point seasons to start his NHL career is awesome no matter how you cut it.

Ehlers also had back to back 60 point seasons while scoring more goals... Ehlers is the best comparable...

 

[Confucius]

What if Matthews turns out to be a dirt bag and decides to “live out his childhood dream”? LOL

thats why we have to save all our cash for him. lol

 

[The Winter Soldier]

So you are actually are standing by the statement that the longer a contract dispute goes on the higher the contract will be?

You realize that’s literally the opposite of how these things work?

I believe Nylander and his agent will get more money rather than less had they signed the first offer. Like I said, all he is doing is looking after himself as Shanahan did when he was 22 when he signed as a RFA with St. Louis.

 

[BodaciousBeefBazooka]

I hope Willy can find us a deal we cant refuse. I can't see making 2 million a year in the KHL being better for him, or even less in the SHL.

He is money hungry, clearly. 100% he wont take the KHL or SHL avenue.

 

[Brunomics]

Ehlers also had back to back 60 point seasons while scoring more goals... Ehlers is the best comparable...

Just because he's a comparable doesn't mean much. The big issue is that say Nylander signs for that comparable, has a monster season and sees Marner and Mathews cash in while he's holding the bag on a comparable. That's not a good situation to be in for the kid.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

I believe Nylander and his agent will get more money rather than less had they signed the first offer. Like I said, all he is doing is looking after himself as Shanahan did when he was 22 when he signed as a RFA with St. Louis.

Of course they would get more money than Toronto’s first offer, that’s how negotiating works. What won’t happen is they will get more money the longer it goes on. If Nylander is asking for 8, that amount doesn’t grow the longer he holds out.

 

[Brock Radunske]

,
Losing a young Nylander over a aging Tavares and his contract could end up being a very bad decision when looking back in 4-5 years.

Please explain how adding Tavares + the return for Nylander is worse than only having Nylander.

I'll wait.

 

[Divine]

I'm pretty sure there is now a provision in the CBA where if a player received a QO and goes unsigned for 2 years, they become a UFA.

Even if there isn't he could go to the KHL and make 5+ million this year and sign an offersheet next summer when the Leafs won't be in a position to match.

There's no provision, I don't know where you heard this. Why sign an offersheet next summer? Just sign it now. There needs to be an offer sheet to sign. As of right now, it appears there isn't any, or he's unwilling to sign it. The same would apply next year.

Also, very seldom are Europe salaries in that range. They're usually under 2M a season. For reference, Matthews made under 1M playing in the NLA. The only example I could think of with high salaries are established russian superstars signing in the KHL. However, with the KHL struggling and Nylander not being a big russian name, even that is unlikely. Regardless, unless he wants to play the rest of his career in Europe, he needs to sign an NHL contract. Whether that be an offersheet or not, time is of the essence for him. Why wait a whole year to sign an offer sheet when you can sign it today?

 

[Rabid Ranger]

How does he have no leverage? The team is worse without him and unsigned he’s worth less in a trade.
He can increase his price to make back what he is losing. The Leafs want a cup this year and it’s less likely to happen if Nylander doesn’t sign.

I think Toronto can easily weather Nylander's absence from the team. I think they are willing to let it play out that way. This is less about being able to pay him what his camp is apparently asking for (they can) and paying him in line with his comparables.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Ehlers and Larkin aren't helping Nylander's case here, Ehlers at $6 million per and Larkin at $6.1 million per. Doubt Nylander gets all that much more then them.

 

[Confucius]

Starting to wonder if we should just let this drag past Dec 1 and use the cap space to acquire a right defenceman and a soon-to-be-UFA right winger for the rest of the year. Try again after the playoffs are over when his antics won't be a distraction to the team and the fans. Give him another 2 weeks where the offer is still on the table and then retract it. Hardball vs. hardball.

I agree with 99% of your comment, but I think if he signs 2 weeks from now he should get about 250k less than what was being offered for this season. Afterall it would mean we lost about a month of play.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Please explain how adding Tavares + the return for Nylander is worse than only having Nylander.

I'll wait.

I don't even know how Tavares is aging. He's in his prime and should stay extremely effective into his thirties as he doesn't rely on speed or being overly physical to play his game.

 

[MyBudJT]

Just because he's a comparable doesn't mean much. The big issue is that say Nylander signs for that comparable, has a monster season and sees Marner and Mathews cash in while he's holding the bag on a comparable. That's not a good situation to be in for the kid.

LOL, people keep using this argument.... But Rielly signed at 6 years @ 7% after being our #1Dman and scoring 36 points as a defenseman...

What would Rielly think seeing the team's 5th best forward cashing in while he went with the market value...?

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

,

But the guy has lot of good points in his posts, sadly you havent!

Add a big fish like Tavares seems like great move at first, but if it means that you cant lock up your young core, then it could affect the team in a negative way long term.

Tavares hasnt showed earlier in his career that hes a winner and being the second best paid in Nhl , the contract to me so far has negative value, you also need to upgrade the backend.

Tavares has 2 1st round exits and 1 2 round exit to show in 9 seasons playing in the Nhl! He won the OG 2014 4 GP 4 0 0,
He also won Wc cup a couple of years ago 6 gp 1 3 4 p, hes a good player for any team but thinking hes the saviour and dragging teams to success, that hasnt happened yet.

Losing a young Nylander over a aging Tavares and his contract could end up being a very bad decision when looking back in 4-5 years.

Tavares has won things his whole life. I think what you mean to say is "the Islanders management hasn't shown to be a winner".