Speculation: Nylander Discussion - Part IV

[GodEmperor]

Nylander will never make above 7 on the leafs. Not now and not 8 years from now (adjusted for the cap % 8 years from now)

He can make as much as he wants in Toronto, unlike other destinations, Hockey players and good looking ones like Willie are treated like Demi Gods here, he can have all the money he wants in advertisements (something not true for other markets).

Someone needs to talk some sense into him considering should the Leafs win the cup, his lifetime value will go through the roof (not true in other destinations).

I don't know if this is mentioned, but this needs to be a massive point that is continually made over and over again because of how true it is, but also that even if he gets a bit more money right away, he is destroying his lifetime value (if he cares about money) and his legacy creation is greatly diminished.

 

[Boxscore]

He can make as much as he wants in Toronto, unlike other destinations, Hockey players and good looking ones like Willie are treated like Demi Gods here, he can have all the money he wants in advertisements (something not true for other markets).

Someone needs to talk some sense into him considering should the Leafs win the cup, his lifetime value will go through the roof (not true in other destinations).

I don't know if this is mentioned, but this needs to be a massive point that is continually made over and over again because of how true it is, but also that even if he gets a bit more money right away, he is destroying his lifetime value (if he cares about money) and his legacy creation is greatly diminished.

There is some good stuff in here and some fabrication IMO.

I definitely agree with you on this part... if Nylander truly wants to be in Toronto at all costs, he'll "settle" now. Because, like you said, I think the Leafs are going to be an annual contender - if not Cup champs - for a while. And, Nylander could be a part of that. However, for all we know, a sticking point in this could be a "complete NMC." I don't think the Nylanders are stupid, they keep hearing rumors, "should Nylander be traded to upgrade the Leafs D?" and that is 100% playing into this, IMO.

I mean, say Nylander is content with giving THE LEAFS a discount, and he signs with them 7 years x 6.5 per. Now let's say the Leafs get bounced in the playoffs two years in a row and Nylander is the chip they decide to trade for a stud D, then Nylander is playing another 5 years for a discount on a team he would not have given a discount. He gets screwed and the Leafs make out like bandits. If he's pledging his loyalty to the Leafs, he probably wants them to do the same... and that's in the form of a complete NMC if he's giving discounts.

Nylander takes on a lot of risk in just "settling" due to loyalty to the Leafs. He's not Matthews, he's not untouchable.

Also, if money is the main factor for Nylander, he will make a ton outside of Toronto as well. For one, he will likely make more of a base salary, because he will not be giving any "discounts." Secondly, depending on the market, he could save a crap ton of money in living and taxes. Also, if he plays in a big market like NY, Philly, Boston, Miami, LA, etc., he will have endorsements through the roof.

 

[Boutette]

Obviously a lot of people here want Nylander to make the maximum possible money that he can get, regardless of how negatively it affects the Leafs. And that's fine. He'll be doing that somewhere else, and good riddance if he does and all of you who are Nylander fans, not Maple Leafs fans can head over to the forums for whatever team he gets traded to. Some of us actually are fans of the Leafs, not merely here as Nylander pumpers.

 

[thadd]

Thank Chia lol

K-Lowe was doing it before Chai when the salary cap was much lower!

 

[Boxscore]

Obviously a lot of people here want Nylander to make the maximum possible money that he can get, regardless of how negatively it affects the Leafs. And that's fine. He'll be doing that somewhere else, and good riddance if he does and all of you who are Nylander fans, not Maple Leafs fans can head over to the forums for whatever team he gets traded to. Some of us actually are fans of the Leafs, not merely here as Nylander pumpers.

Ok. Let's say you're right.

If Nylander calls the Leafs tomorrow and says, "I want to be part of the Leafs and I am willing to sign for 7 years at a discount of 6.5 per, only because Toronto is the only place I want to be. I am willing to do that. But, I am only willing to do it if you give me a complete NMC so I cannot be traded under any circumstances. I'll commit to you if you commit to me."

As a Leafs fan, would you be alright with that? Both Nylander and the Leafs sharing the risk/reward?

 

[Pia8988]

Ok. Let's say you're right.

If Nylander calls the Leafs tomorrow and says, "I want to be part of the Leafs and I am willing to sign for 7 years at a discount of 6.5 per, only because Toronto is the only place I want to be. I am willing to do that. But, I am only willing to do it if you give me a complete NMC so I cannot be traded under any circumstances. I'll commit to you if you commit to me."

As a Leafs fan, would you be alright with that? Both Nylander and the Leafs sharing the risk/reward?

Impossible scenario

 

[GodEmperor]

There is some good stuff in here and some fabrication IMO.

I definitely agree with you on this part... if Nylander truly wants to be in Toronto at all costs, he'll "settle" now. Because, like you said, I think the Leafs are going to be an annual contender - if not Cup champs - for a while. And, Nylander could be a part of that. However, for all we know, a sticking point in this could be a "complete NMC." I don't think the Nylanders are stupid, they keep hearing rumors, "should Nylander be traded to upgrade their D?" and that is 100% playing into this, IMO.

I mean, say Nylander is content with giving THE LEAFS a discount, and he signs with them 7 years x 6.5 per. Now let's say the Leafs get bounced in the playoffs two years in a row and Nylander is the chip they decide to trade for a stud D, they Nylander is playing another 5 years for a discount on a team he would not have given a discount.

Nylander takes on a lot of risk in just "settling" due to loyalty to the Leafs. He's not Matthews, he's not untouchable.

Also, if money is the main factor for Nylander, he will make a ton outside of Toronto as well. For one, he will likely make more of a base salary, because he will not be giving any "discounts." Secondly, depending on the market, he could save a crap ton of money in living and taxes. Also, if he plays in a big market like NY, Philly, Boston, Miami, LA, etc., he will have endorsements through the roof.

That's one what if, but if we're looking at worst case scenarios, shouldn't we also look at best case scenarios as well? I.e him winning and being immortalized along with the other stars of the team?

It's difficult to say exactly how much one can earn in Toronto from endorsements, but I know the amount of high position people that love Hockey (why our crowd arena generally sucks) is through the roof and likewise for general fanhood, so I'd imagine it has to be near the top of the league.

They're effectively battling over 6-9 million over the next 5-7 years, I would argue that being in Toronto, winning the cup and getting all the endorsements and immortalization status that he would get would be worth the same if not more than that and lifetime value of it would be through the roof in ways that other cities can't compare.

I come from a more business background though, so that's how I'd try to sell it to him, maybe he only wants a Hockey check and that's it or he has other motivations, but if the dispute is about money, I can't imagine that being in Toronto in general and being one of the top 3 players of the religion of Toronto can't be worth a ton of money.

 

[Boxscore]

Impossible scenario

Why is it impossible? Some players have full No Movement Clauses.

 

[A1LeafNation]

It was the other way around. Joseph went from earning $6.5M in Toronto to being the highest paid goalie in the world when he went to Detroit for $8M per.

Curtis Joseph - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Shanahan is full of **** lol. Red Wings were a powerhouse that had a budget only a handful of other teams could compete with. They were spending as much back then as teams are now.

Leafs were offering more. I remember he took less to sign in Detroit.

Cujo decides to wing away

 

[chatty4756]

Pretty sure rfa's can't get nmc or ntc's. Its something only ufa's get

 

[Boxscore]

That's one what if, but if we're looking at worst case scenarios, shouldn't we also look at best case scenarios as well? I.e him winning and being immortalized along with the other stars of the team?

It's difficult to say exactly how much one can earn in Toronto from endorsements, but I know the amount of high position people that love Hockey (why our crowd arena generally sucks) is through the roof and likewise for general fanhood, so I'd imagine it has to be near the top of the league.

They're effectively battling over 6-9 million over the next 5-7 years, I would argue that being in Toronto, winning the cup and getting all the endorsements and immortalization status that he would get would be worth the same if not more than that and lifetime value of it would be through the roof in ways that other cities can't compare.

I come from a more business background though, so that's how I'd try to sell it to him, maybe he only wants a Hockey check and that's it or he has other motivations, but if the dispute is about money, I can't imagine that being in Toronto in general and being one of the top 3 players of the religion of Toronto can't be worth a ton of money.

I don't disagree with your premise. But, I think this scenario truly applies to someone like Matthews - not Nylander.

Think about it, how many superstars, or great players, have remained on their original teams?

Here's some that have not...

Hall
Staal
Panarin
Tavares
E. Karlsson
W. Karlsson
Seguin
Kessel
Thornton
Carter
Hamilton
Subban
Weber
Jones
Johansen
Drouin
Galchenyuk
Burns
Suter
Parise
Chara
Duchene
etc., etc.

Point being, Nylander is well aware that there is a reasonable chance he could be traded if the Leafs decide to upgrade another position. Think of all the rumors we've all speculated on. That the media speculates on. Out of Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Rielly and Nylander... who is the most likely player to be traded out of that core?

If the Leafs could guarantee Nylander he will 100% be in Toronto for the duration of his deal, I would think he might be willing to give them discounts. But not so he could be traded to the freaking Canes or Jackets in a year or two. No way.

Matthews is probably never traded. Or, if he is, it will be at the end, a la Sundin.

 

[Boxscore]

Pretty sure rfa's can't get nmc or ntc's. Its something only ufa's get

You are correct. I am wrong.

 

[GodEmperor]

I don't disagree with your premise. But, I think this scenario truly applies to someone like Matthews - not Nylander.

Think about it, how many superstars, or great players, have remained on their original teams?

Here's some that have not...

Hall
Staal
Panarin
Tavares
E. Karlsson
W. Karlsson
Seguin
Kessel
Thornton
Carter
Hamilton
Subban
Weber
Jones
Johansen
Drouin
Galchenyuk
Burns
Suter
Parise
Chara
Duchene
etc., etc.

Point being, Nylander is well aware that there is a reasonable chance he could be traded if the Leafs decide to upgrade another position. Think of all the rumors we've all speculated on. That the media speculates on. Out of Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Rielly and Nylander... who is the most likely player to be traded out of that core?

If the Leafs could guarantee Nylander he will 100% be in Toronto for the duration of his deal, I would think he might be willing to give them discounts. But not so he could be traded to the freaking Canes or Jackets in a year or two. No way.

Matthews is probably never traded. Or, if he is, it will be at the end, a la Sundin.

I personally would not mind a NMC with Nylander if he gives us a good deal, personally I believe our defensive situations is relatively easily remedied and we have a ton of prospects in the pipeline that will keep us competing well into the Matthews/Nylander/Marner era, but I don't like the idea of overpaying Willie at all.

I think the cost of overpaying Willie FAR outweighs any "negatives" of guaranteeing that Willie stays in Toronto considering we could always get Tanev, Petry or someone like that for not much (1st, 2nd and a prospect), whereas paying Willie an extra 1-1.5 million literally means that at the end of the day we would likely have to pay an extra 4-5 million total for Mitch and Auston as well because if Willie were to get 8, Mitch is EASILY asking for 10 and Auston is EASILY asking for 12.

NMC for Willie>>>>>>>Extra 5 million spent

 

[Broadslayer]

I don't disagree with your premise. But, I think this scenario truly applies to someone like Matthews - not Nylander.

Think about it, how many superstars, or great players, have remained on their original teams?


Matthews ever traded. Or, if he is, it will be at the end, a la Sundin.

What if Matthews turns out to be a dirt bag and decides to “live out his childhood dream”? LOL

 

[sharks9]

Why is it impossible? Some players have full No Movement Clauses.

Can't give a NMC to an RFA

 

[chatty4756]

You are correct. I am wrong.

Players either accrue 7 seasons of service time or turn 27 in the calendar year is roughly the idea. Nylander and his agent both obviously know this rule and have to realize dubas can promise not to trade him but there is no guarantees he wont go back on his word if need be

 

[Boutette]

Ok. Let's say you're right.

If Nylander calls the Leafs tomorrow and says, "I want to be part of the Leafs and I am willing to sign for 7 years at a discount of 6.5 per, only because Toronto is the only place I want to be. I am willing to do that. But, I am only willing to do it if you give me a complete NMC so I cannot be traded under any circumstances. I'll commit to you if you commit to me."

As a Leafs fan, would you be alright with that? Both Nylander and the Leafs sharing the risk/reward?

Sounds like you are a Nylander fan. Good for you. Then when he gets traded you can go profess your love of him on the forum for whatever team he gets to play for.

You consider giving him what comparable players have earned a discount? That Willy's somehow taking a risk by accepting the same money that Pasternak is making?

Fact is, the Leafs already committed a lot to him. They used up a high draft pick, he had access to currently one of the best development systems in the league, and for his first 2 full years in the league he got to play on the leafs #1 line with Austin Matthews. What could have happened to him? Well you just need to take a glance over at how his brother Alex has been developed in Buffalo's system to see how William's career could have gone terribly wrong.

Sorry, as a leafs fan, I want the team to be the best it can be under the cap. I'm not advocating Dubas goes all Ballard on Nylander, but I'm also certain that the team cannot afford to overpay him a la Draisadtl. However, I just can't see how another Muskoka 5 situation isn't going end up any better than it did last time it did. What makes you think it would? Toronto paying out half their cap on 4 players and then guaranteeing a situation where they get to call all the shots (because that's where rolling over gets you) or having to lose good or even better players than Willy because you sold the farm to him? You really think that's the recipe for a Stanley Cup, because I sure don't.

 

[Lunatik]

You consider giving him what comparable players have earned a discount? That Willy's somehow taking a risk by accepting the same money that Pasternak is making?

The thing with signing young players is, not only do you pay them for what they've done, but on a long term deal you have to pay them for what they could do. If Nylander is a 60 point player after two years in the league, what will he be after 4? after 6? Signing for 6-6.5 million is what he has earned, yes and IMO would be fair on a 1 or 2 year deal, but when you want to tie a player up for 6+ years, you have to add something to compensate for their potential.

 

[Boutette]

The thing with signing young players is, not only do you pay them for what they've done, but on a long term deal you have to pay them for what they could do. If Nylander is a 60 point player after two years in the league, what will he be after 4? after 6? Signing for 6-6.5 million is what he has earned, yes and IMO would be fair on a 1 or 2 year deal, but when you want to tie a player up for 6+ years, you have to add something to compensate for their potential.

Or as an RFA he compromises and makes a deal or he sits out and loses money not to mention whatever development he would have had he been playing instead of sitting out. That's his choice. No team is obligated to overpay a player. Some do, like Edmonton did with Draisatdl, but most don't. As has been noted, if Nylander gets overpaid, then Marner will expect to be overpaid, and then Matthews will expect to be overpaid.

Any team wants to win the cup, they can't overpay players vs. their actual value not potential value. You want your team to overpay players, fine, but don't expect them to be any better than mediocre when all is said and done, as currently teams like Detroit, Edmonton and Montreal clearly demonstrate.

 

[Slimmy]

Obviously a lot of people here want Nylander to make the maximum possible money that he can get, regardless of how negatively it affects the Leafs. And that's fine. He'll be doing that somewhere else, and good riddance if he does and all of you who are Nylander fans, not Maple Leafs fans can head over to the forums for whatever team he gets traded to. Some of us actually are fans of the Leafs, not merely here as Nylander pumpers.

Some of us here is like ACTUAL Leaf fans and we like actually support our team and if you like don't get that then like go be a fan of other teams and some fans maybe don't have maps so I like them to have maps so that they can find Toronto on a map and like, yeah.

 

[Boutette]

Some of us here is like ACTUAL Leaf fans and we like actually support our team and if you like don't get that then like go be a fan of other teams and some fans maybe don't have maps so I like them to have maps so that they can find Toronto on a map and like, yeah.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

What would your team offer the Leafs at this point for a soft 60 point winger who doesn’t show up in the playoffs and wants 8 million dollars and maybe more? Does Nylander at 8x8 have negative value?

I personally think he could realistically be worth 8 million dollars or even more but what if he doesn’t take another step? It might become one of the worst contracts in the league.

 

[boredmale]

I am guessing the main problem for the leafs if they tried to trade him is they could get a decent picks and prospects package back, but I am guessing they want a similar valued defenseman back which they won't get

 

[hotpaws]

No one knows what he's asking for or what the teams offering .

The only thing to come out from either side is Shanny/Dubas/Babs frequently saying they want the 3 kids to take discount's .

Greater chance he's getting low balled than he's asking for to much .

 

[Motte and Bailey]

No one knows what he's asking for or what teams offering .

The only thing to come out from either side is Shanny/Dubas/Babs frequently saying they want the 3 kids to discounts .

Greater chance he's getting low balled than he's asking for to much .

I get the same feeling. The way the entire hockey world has been sniffing Shanahan and Dubas’ jock for years I don’t think William is the one being overconfident in this situation.