Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[arso40]

was just talking about his overall production when comparing him to his 3rd NHL season that would technically be a career high for Nylander if he matched Marner's numbers that year.

but yea I think Marner's improved his goal scoring since then has back to back 30 goal campaigns and his defensive game has taken big leaps forward. even if you think Marner has plateaued in the last 2 years with 99 and 97 point campaigns Nylander has to grow to meet those totals.

my original point was that in his 3rd season prior to signing his ELC he hit the 90+ point mark and in terms of overall production it's basically stayed the same throughout his career. maybe this is the year Nylander joins him in the 90's or higher we will see but 26 games doesn't prove he is.


maybe I'm reading this incorrectly but it seems your making a reference to body getting bigger but being bigger and bulkier isn't always better especially for someone of Marner's build. when your game is built around being quick and elusive being bigger isn't better

Understand your point my friend but wouldn’t you say that’s an unfair assessment? Toi has never been the same quality of linemates opportunities never been the same nylanders always the first to lose something or be removed from something Tavares and matthews are two different animals I just don’t think marners even a better offensive weapon he gets the overall edge but that gap is closing

 

[arso40]

was just talking about his overall production when comparing him to his 3rd NHL season that would technically be a career high for Nylander if he matched Marner's numbers that year.

but yea I think Marner's improved his goal scoring since then has back to back 30 goal campaigns and his defensive game has taken big leaps forward. even if you think Marner has plateaued in the last 2 years with 99 and 97 point campaigns Nylander has to grow to meet those totals.

my original point was that in his 3rd season prior to signing his ELC he hit the 90+ point mark and in terms of overall production it's basically stayed the same throughout his career. maybe this is the year Nylander joins him in the 90's or higher we will see but 26 games doesn't prove he is.


maybe I'm reading this incorrectly but it seems your making a reference to body getting bigger but being bigger and bulkier isn't always better especially for someone of Marner's build. when your game is built around being quick and elusive being bigger isn't better

also I will add that when you sign an RFA contract 3 years into the league it's expected that your play will get better and better so when Marner puts up 94 points in his 3rd season it's probably expected there to be growth and produce at an higher level. he hasn't so that deal to me wasn't for a 90 point forward but for someone better. but it's hard to compare RFA vs UFA imo

When every playoff we get out muscled it’s something to talk about marner always gets an a for effort but he disappears in physical games when it matters

 

[PROUD PAPA]

So what’s marners next deal look like then???

No idea.
We'll either continue down the faulty cap structure road to nowhere or clue in and find a balance that distributes space more appropriately.
I suspect we'll continue to overpay the soft forwards and run a roster full of holes we can't afford to address. Admittedly, i'm clearly in the minority and a continuation of the current "can and will" plan will please the majority of Leaf fans.
Personally I just care about winning a cup. Wonderful personal stats and highlight reel plays are not important to me at all.

 

[ToneDog]

The argument is not if nylanders better but if marners better lol but with seriousness nylander gets slighted every year let’s not make it look the other way I’m just trying to understand if my friend is suggesting that willies not worth marners old contract

Neither of them are worth Marner's old contract IMO. Is 88 worth as much as Marner ? Absolutely.

 

[-DeMo-]

Understand your point my friend but wouldn’t you say that’s an unfair assessment? Toi has never been the same quality of linemates opportunities never been the same nylanders always the first to lose something or be removed from something Tavares and matthews are two different animals I just don’t think marners even a better offensive weapon he gets the overall edge but that gap is closing

you could also say Nylander has had easier competition since Marner and Matthews has drawn the toughest matchups to play against. but yes I agree Matthews > Tavares in terms of linemates.

when you look at TOI in the last 2 full season's combined Marner's TOI/GP is 21:05 vs Nylander 18:24. Nylanders PPTOI/GP = 3:18 vs Marner's 3:21. Nylanders EVTOI/GP = 14:50 Marner = 15:35 so about 1 40 second shift difference in Ice time? the real difference is the time Marner kills Penalties.

 

[arso40]

you could also say Nylander has had easier competition since Marner and Matthews has drawn the toughest matchups to play against. but yes I agree Matthews > Tavares in terms of linemates.

when you look at TOI in the last 2 full season's combined Marner's TOI/GP is 21:05 vs Nylander 18:24. Nylanders PPTOI/GP = 3:18 vs Marner's 3:21. Nylanders EVTOI/GP = 14:50 Marner = 15:35 so about 1 40 second shift difference in Ice time? the real difference is the time Marner kills Penalties.

What about the Playoffs

you could also say Nylander has had easier competition since Marner and Matthews has drawn the toughest matchups to play against. but yes I agree Matthews > Tavares in terms of linemates.

when you look at TOI in the last 2 full season's combined Marner's TOI/GP is 21:05 vs Nylander 18:24. Nylanders PPTOI/GP = 3:18 vs Marner's 3:21. Nylanders EVTOI/GP = 14:50 Marner = 15:35 so about 1 40 second shift difference in Ice time? the real difference is the time Marner kills Penalties.

Don’t include this years toi and tell me the difference

 

[-DeMo-]

What about the Playoffs


Don’t include this years toi and tell me the difference

in my previous post I didn't include this current year. only the 2 previous full season's in the regular season

Playoffs: Marner vs Nylander

TOI/GP = 23:40 vs 18:33
EV = 17:13 vs 15:37
PP = 3:54 vs 2:53
PK = 2:33 vs 0:03

EV difference = 1:36 PP = 1:01 PK = 2:30

 

[arso40]

in my previous post I didn't include this current year. only the 2 previous full season's in the regular season

Playoffs: Marner vs Nylander

TOI/GP = 23:40 vs 18:33
EV = 17:13 vs 15:37
PP = 3:54 vs 2:53
PK = 2:33 vs 0:03

EV difference = 1:36 PP = 1:01 PK = 2:30

Yeah that’s rough hard to compete with that the first year they have similar ice time nylander has a 10 point gap and been the better player thus far although I expect that gap to be closed happy we got both hope we keep both

 

[Notsince67]

The argument is not if nylanders better but if marners better lol but with seriousness nylander gets slighted every year let’s not make it look the other way I’m just trying to understand if my friend is suggesting that willies not worth marners old contract

If the Leafs win the cup, all bets are off on how much he gets.

 

[Menzinger]

Also have to fill out the majority of the top 4 D and a bunch of top 9 forwards next year with all the cap increase likely taken up by Matthews and potentially Nylander's contracts. With a big cap rise comes more expensive UFA contracts so it will be interesting to see if the leafs can get cheaper replacements for brodie, klingberg, Giordano, Bertuzzi, Domi, etc.

True, though generally speaking we usually see star players keep up with the cap situation far more so than bottom six guys. 4th line salaries really havent changed all that much in the last decade other than the value of league minimum contracts has increased per cba negotiations

 

[ULF_55]

Last night I think ... time flies when you're constantly busy ... there is a scrum in the NY end corner, about 3 players and Nylander slides in with one hand on his stick and retrieves the puck.

How dare he not going in and bump and rumble and watch someone with more smarts skate in and take the puck.

 

[IPS]

If the Leafs win the cup, all bets are off on how much he gets.

It's also about the only way Leafs fans could stomach losing him for nothing.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

True, though generally speaking we usually see star players keep up with the cap situation far more so than bottom six guys. 4th line salaries really havent changed all that much in the last decade other than the value of league minimum contracts has increased per cba negotiations

Agreed though there are quite a few gaps higher in rhe lineup particularly on D that may follow that cap rise more closely

 

[notDatsyuk]

you could also say Nylander has had easier competition since Marner and Matthews has drawn the toughest matchups to play against. but yes I agree Matthews > Tavares in terms of linemates.

when you look at TOI in the last 2 full season's combined Marner's TOI/GP is 21:05 vs Nylander 18:24. Nylanders PPTOI/GP = 3:18 vs Marner's 3:21. Nylanders EVTOI/GP = 14:50 Marner = 15:35 so about 1 40 second shift difference in Ice time? the real difference is the time Marner kills Penalties.

And if you look at just even strength last year, Nylander had almost twice as many goals and more points than Marner in marginally less ice time.

 

[arso40]

And if you look at just even strength last year, Nylander had almost twice as many goals and more points than Marner in marginally less ice time.

I didn’t even realize that oh my I hope they find a number they both accept build a tight team on route to perennial champs

 

[-DeMo-]

And if you look at just even strength last year, Nylander had almost twice as many goals and more points than Marner in marginally less ice time.

yea playing against easier competition. don't leave that part out.

and Powerplay goals count for the exact same as even strength goals. I bet Pittsburgh wishes there team got more PP goals right about now.

 

[notDatsyuk]

yea playing against easier competition. don't leave that part out.

and Powerplay goals count for the exact same as even strength goals. I bet Pittsburgh wishes there team got more PP goals right about now.

Actually, it's been shown that quality of teammates is more significant than quality of competition.

Here's one interesting article Why Quality of Competition doesn’t matter to analytics experts anymore

And Willy had as many PP goals, in less PP time (some of it on the second unit).

 

[Gary Nylund]

Actually, it's been shown that quality of teammates is more significant than quality of competition.

Here's one interesting article Why Quality of Competition doesn’t matter to analytics experts anymore

And Willy had as many PP goals, in less PP time (some of it on the second unit).

I've always been skeptical of this QoC relevance when it comes to measuring production. You're on the top line, so you're up against the other teams top line, OK in a vacuum that sounds relevant. But the top line you're facing isn't always out there to shut you down, more often than not they're trying to score as well so no reason to assume they're super hard to score against. And of course some teams are so bad that their top line kind of sucks anyway.

Willie over the last 4 playoffs has IIRC only one less point than Marner, he doesn't get to play with the goal scoring machine that Matthews is and with Marner getting substantially more ice time on top of that, I don't think there's any question who's been more dangerous offensively. Marner is better defensively of course, that's not even a debate IMO.

 

[studebaker17]

I've always been skeptical of this QoC relevance when it comes to measuring production. You're on the top line, so you're up against the other teams top line, OK in a vacuum that sounds relevant. But the top line you're facing isn't always out there to shut you down, more often than not they're trying to score as well so no reason to assume they're super hard to score against. And of course some teams are so bad that their top line kind of sucks anyway.

Willie over the last 4 playoffs has IIRC only one less point than Marner, he doesn't get to play with the goal scoring machine that Matthews is and with Marner getting substantially more ice time on top of that, I don't think there's any question who's been more dangerous offensively. Marner is better defensively of course, that's not even a debate IMO.

Regular season to a degree your correct. Playoffs line matching , game plans absolutly make a huge difference. Under this current group the only team that matched big lines head to head with the leafs was tampa and the leafs top line won. Every other series the opposing coach tried to get their top lines out against tavares line and sent their best checking line against mathews line.
Even bigger deal was mathews line faced all the top pair d. Most teams there's a pretty big drop from playing 1st pair to 2nd .
I find this amazing its not so obvious to some people.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Regular season to a degree your correct. Playoffs line matching , game plans absolutly make a huge difference. Under this current group the only team that matched big lines head to head with the leafs was tampa and the leafs top line won. Every other series the opposing coach tried to get their top lines out against tavares line and sent their best checking line against mathews line.
Even bigger deal was mathews line faced all the top pair d. Most teams there's a pretty big drop from playing 1st pair to 2nd .
I find this amazing its not so obvious to some people.

For one thing, they can only match when we're on the road. The other thing is that they can send out their best checking line, but that doesn't mean they'll be successful. At least I assume M&M are good enough that they should be able to beat most checking lines.

 

[-DeMo-]

Actually, it's been shown that quality of teammates is more significant than quality of competition.

Here's one interesting article Why Quality of Competition doesn’t matter to analytics experts anymore

And Willy had as many PP goals, in less PP time (some of it on the second unit).

r u talking about last season? Nylander had 293:45 of PP TOI vs Marner 285:59

and I know Nylander's points goals at EV, PP, SH as I do with Marner.

 

[Stephen]

Matthews and Nylander as a duo give Toronto a pretty scary odd man rush situation that's hard to stop. When Matthews is pushing up the ice, Nylander is pushing up the ice, doesn't matter who has the puck... that's a scary proposition to defend and they just back guys off.

It's not quite the same dynamic with Matthews and Marner. Marner doesn't get up the ice exactly the same way and Matthews defers. They don't quite go in the straight line speed.

The variability of these two mix and match combinations means you probably want to keep Marner and Nylander. And if a franchise changing move happens, it's down the road at a time of Toronto's choosing. Not because of a contract situation.

 

[arso40]

r u talking about last season? Nylander had 293:45 of PP TOI vs Marner 285:59

and I know Nylander's points goals at EV, PP, SH as I do with Marner.

Nylander played all 82 marner missed like 8 games deveining huh?

 

[studebaker17]

For one thing, they can only match when we're on the road. The other thing is that they can send out their best checking line, but that doesn't mean they'll be successful. At least I assume M&M are good enough that they should be able to beat most checking lines.

Line matching is as often as possible , not just on home ice . If you can't get the matchup off the face off the coach is switching lines immidiately after the pucks dropped and safe to do on the fly .
Checkiing lines have a different game than offence . Their job is just keep the Mathews line limited in chances by hard on the puck and always in position between them and your net . Not rocket science . It's easier to play that way than thinking of going on offence . How M&M deal with that is another topic because this is a Nylander thread but just commenting on absolutely line matching matters .
Iv'e posted this page up a few times but if you really want to track matchups you can look up any game you want and follow the entire game who's on the ice at any given time. It really shows you what the coach are trying to do . The biggest thing to watch for is d pairings . It's saved in my bookmarks after the Boston series but i check it most games / series .

ShiftChart - Hockey Shift Data Visualization

 

[Menzinger]

He's got the PASSION