Nikita Kucherov is the clear favorite for the Art Ross Trophy

[MacMacandBarbie]

I know 100+ assists would be quite special, as it's only ever been done by Orr/Lemieux/Gretzky. But nonetheless - if you think about it rationally - if two players have 140 points, and one has 50 goals/90 assists and one has 30 goals/110 assists - by default the guy with more goals is usually seen as having had the better season.

So - despite the gaudy assists total - for similar amount of points, more goals is usually better.

Combine that with voter fatigue - the bar for McDavid to win the hart again will simply be higher this year.

Winning the Pacific (or maybe even President's Trophy?) for Oilers would be increible after how bad of a start they had. I think that's really McDavid's greatest shot at the hart - that voters correctly recognize how valuable he was to the Oilers amazing turn-around in-year and lean on that narrative when voting. But I think that narrative won't be as strong come April, since voters tend to a lot of have recency bias. Oilers have been safely in a playoff spot since January. That's a long time - I suspect this won't play as strongly for voters if he doesn't also have a strong point lead with the Ross.

Good points all around once again. If he wins the Pacific is a key part, plus he needs the 100 assists and to win the Art Ross. But that should do it, the dragging a mediocre team that arguably would miss the playoffs to a division title is a good hart argument.

That being said this is the year MacKinnon should win the Hart though, he's been a beast all year, plus he was robbed spectacularly in 2018.

He wasn't robbed at all in 2018. Hall dragged a worse team to the playoffs in 2018. Neither were better than McDavid anyway, and so the important to the team factor was huge that year.

To say a player that finished 4th for the Art Ross got robbed period is hilarious to begin with, so I have to assume you have an agenda.

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

Mcdavid also has a paltry 23 goals. Wants to pull a 2007 thornton which is cute

Don't know if I would call a 100+ assist season "cute".

Know what is cute is scoring 28 goals and 84 points in a full season and losing the Ross to Jamie Benn.

 

[wetcoast]

Most important season of MacKinnon's career

If he manages to outscore peak McDavid (fair and square) and wins the Hart, Ross & Lindsay, it completely moves the needles in his all-time status

Just being close is also good enough with Mack's playoff resume.

 

[wetcoast]

Updated totals as of this morning:

Kucherov - on pace for 137 points and 50 goals in 81 games. 19 Games to go
MacKinnon on pace for 140 points and 51 goals in 82 games. 18 Games to go
McDavid on pace for 137 points and 105 assists in 80 games. 22 Games to go

Hell of a comeback past few games from MacKinnon, after slowing down slightly in february. He had a stretch of 9 points in 9 games - which for most players is great, ppg, but was a sharp down for MacKinnon after all-star break and he was losing ground. He's now bounced back with 16 points in his last 6 games.

For those wondering - Matthews is still on pace for 72 goals (amazing), but only 106 points. Definitely won't be winning the hart with those numbers. A couple of weeks ago, Matthews seemed to be on pace for 78 goals and closer to 115 points, and the other 3 had slowed down slightly and seemed to be pacing for closer to 130 points than 140.

78 goals/115 points vs ~130 points and less goals, I think Matthews had a serious shot at the Hart. As things stand right now, no.

I also don't think McDavid will win the hart, unless he wins the Ross by at least 5 points. Even then, I'm not sure.

I think the Hart race is between MacKinnon and Kucherov. I can see voters voting for the Art Ross winner as a differentiator. It's possible voters vote for MacK above Kucherov even if he is second in Art Ross because he never won a hart, but I hope not. Even though a lot of people say MacKinnon should have won the hart in 2018 - I actually think Kucherov should have won it above him that year too.

So.....my updated hart prediction:

1. Unless McDavid wins the Ross by at least 5 points - he's not winning the hart.
2. Unless Matthews scores over 77 goals and is within 15 points or less of Art Ross, he's not winning the hart
3. If MacKinnon wins the Art Ross - he's definitely winning the hart
4. If Kucherov wins the Art Ross - if he's ~3+ points up from MacKinnon he's winning the hart if he's only 1 or 2 points ahead, 50/50, I could see MacKinnon edge him out in a super close vote.

Fair points but 2 guys have won the Art Ross and it's really for Mack to lose at this point and that's only happening with an injury IMO.

 

[Toby91ca]

He wasn't robbed at all in 2018. Hall dragged a worse team to the playoffs in 2018. Neither were better than McDavid anyway, and so the important to the team factor was huge that year.

To say a player that finished 4th for the Art Ross got robbed period is hilarious to begin with, so I have to assume you have an agenda.

I wouldn't yell that he was robbed, but he certainly would have gotten my vote. I think the voters didn't vote for McDavid because he missed the playoffs. MacKinnon, while finishing lower in the Art Ross, was basically tied with McDavid on PPG basis (1.32 vs. 1.31). MacK missing 8 games probably hurts Hart argument, but not that much....normally voters don't see to care unless it's 20+ games. They probably then looked at the lead Hall had over #2 scorer on his team vs. MacK....which is short sighted in my mind as you are only looking at 2 players on the team. Fact is they both shared about the same % of their team's scoring....with MacK actually slightly ahead. So I'd generally look at that and then go with the guy who not only feels like the better player, but also scored more.

Again....not robbed, but I did disagree with Hall winning it at the time.

 

[wetcoast]

McDavid has been healthy this season. He started out healthy and slow by his standard, missed only 2 games due to injury, and then played through some discomfort for his first two games back. Otherwise, he has been completely healthy before and after the injury. It is not enough to excuse him losing an Art Ross race, if he does. McDavid does need to win this race to build his Big 4/5 legacy.

No he doesn't, which of the Big 4 are you trying to protect anyways?

these really weird "if player A is a way more competitive and balanced era doesn't demolish the field then he can't be considered great" arguments are just really weak.

I don't care how good any player is there is more variance and just luck in a 32 team league than a 21 team league or less, it's math.

Not to mention that McDavid obviously rushed back and played through the injury in order for his team to make the playoffs.

That feat is probably more important than winning the Art Ross or missing by several points.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

I wouldn't yell that he was robbed, but he certainly would have gotten my vote. I think the voters didn't vote for McDavid because he missed the playoffs. MacKinnon, while finishing lower in the Art Ross, was basically tied with McDavid on PPG basis (1.32 vs. 1.31). MacK missing 8 games probably hurts Hart argument, but not that much....normally voters don't see to care unless it's 20+ games. They probably then looked at the lead Hall had over #2 scorer on his team vs. MacK....which is short sighted in my mind as you are only looking at 2 players on the team. Fact is they both shared about the same % of their team's scoring....with MacK actually slightly ahead. So I'd generally look at that and then go with the guy who not only feels like the better player, but also scored more.

Again....not robbed, but I did disagree with Hall winning it at the time.

2018 shouldn't have gone to MacK. If we are all being honest we know the media pulled every BS argument in the book to frame the race against two good ol canadian boys that hadn't won a major award yet.

OV won the Rocket, and won the metro with the caps, and eventually the cup. Kucherov finished higher than MacK and Hall in the Art Ross race, and leads the Bolts to the best record in the east. Malkin finished higher than MacK and Hall and lead the Penguins to a great record.

 

[Video Nasty]

I wouldn't yell that he was robbed, but he certainly would have gotten my vote. I think the voters didn't vote for McDavid because he missed the playoffs. MacKinnon, while finishing lower in the Art Ross, was basically tied with McDavid on PPG basis (1.32 vs. 1.31). MacK missing 8 games probably hurts Hart argument, but not that much....normally voters don't see to care unless it's 20+ games. They probably then looked at the lead Hall had over #2 scorer on his team vs. MacK....which is short sighted in my mind as you are only looking at 2 players on the team. Fact is they both shared about the same % of their team's scoring....with MacK actually slightly ahead. So I'd generally look at that and then go with the guy who not only feels like the better player, but also scored more.

Again....not robbed, but I did disagree with Hall winning it at the time.

A few key factors led to Hall squeaking out a win over MacKinnon in 2018, when compared directly to each other.

1. Hall had a 26 game point streak during the second half of the season.

2. The Avs were in playoff position all season and nearly tumbled out, until they beat the Blues on the final day of the season. Meanwhile, the Devils got hot down the stretch and got in at the end. Voters simply love that storyline.

3. MacKinnon was cold down the stretch when the Avs were faltering. He went 9 games without a goal and had 6 points while the Avs lost 6 of 9. To his credit, he had the game winning goal and added an assist in the clinching win on the final day of the season. Meanwhile, the Devils won 7 of their final 8 with Hall scoring 7 goals and 15 total points.

4. While better than the last place Avs the prior season, the Devils were last in the East and had the second fewest wins in the league. They had their own big turnaround factoring in as well.

I ultimately wish MacKinnon had won it so people wouldn’t talk about he got robbed over and over and we didn’t have to deal with him potentially winning it this season no matter what because he “deserves” it.

The fact is, it was his own fault he lost it. Not going cold down the stretch would have buffered him against Hall’s hot streak and would have certainly gave him the extra necessary votes.

 

[avalanche_country]

Only two trophies matter. Stanley Cup and Conne Smythe.

I don’t care if he wins hart ect.

 

[Juxta Position]

Good points all around once again. If he wins the Pacific is a key part, plus he needs the 100 assists and to win the Art Ross. But that should do it, the dragging a mediocre team that arguably would miss the playoffs to a division title is a good hart argument.


He wasn't robbed at all in 2018. Hall dragged a worse team to the playoffs in 2018. Neither were better than McDavid anyway, and so the important to the team factor was huge that year.

To say a player that finished 4th for the Art Ross got robbed period is hilarious to begin with, so I have to assume you have an agenda.

Yes, my very obvious Oilers avatar says I have an Avalanche based agenda.....

MacKinnon SHOULD have won the Hart that year, Edmonton didn't make the playoffs and for as much as I think that is a stupid rule, there was no way McDavid wins that year with the Oilers out.

Taylor Hall finished 6th in scoring and didn't drag anyone anywhere, he was a good story for the media to latch on to, and they like to give awards based on their own narratives.

 

[Video Nasty]

Only two trophies matter. Stanley Cup and Conne Smythe.

That’s not true though. People, especially the best, like being recognized as so. I assure you that individual hardware matters, particularly when the person in the discussion is going to be nominated for the fourth time and is trying to nab his first. He already has the Cup accolade, so everything else is personal legacy building at this and it totally matters.

If he were to sweep the Hart, Lindsay, and Art Ross this season or simply win any combination of them, it’s going to do more for his placement in history than winning another Cup will.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

That’s not true though. People, especially the best, like being recognized as so. I assure you that individual hardware matters, particularly when the person in the discussion is going to be nominated for the fourth time and is trying to nab his first. He already has the Cup accolade, so everything else is personal legacy building at this and it totally matters.

If he were to sweep the Hart, Lindsay, and Art Ross this season or simply win any combination of them, it’s going to do more for his placement in history than winning another Cup will.

I think winning the smyth and another cup will mean more.

 

[avalanche_country]

That’s not true though. People, especially the best, like being recognized as so. I assure you that individual hardware matters, particularly when the person in the discussion is going to be nominated for the fourth time and is trying to nab his first. He already has the Cup accolade, so everything else is personal legacy building at this and it totally matters.

If he were to sweep the Hart, Lindsay, and Art Ross this season or simply win any combination of them, it’s going to do more for his placement in history than winning another Cup will.

I’d rather him win another cup than any of those and I bet he feels the same way.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

I’d rather him win another cup than any of those and I bet he feels the same way.

The same for all players. Hes not gonna have a "sad" off season after another cup win if he is just edged out of the regular season trophies. Its really the media that will care about it.

 

[wetcoast]

Don't know if I would call a 100+ assist season "cute".

Know what is cute is scoring 28 goals and 84 points in a full season and losing the Ross to Jamie Benn.

5 games missed and 3 games back, what a bum eh?

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

5 games missed and 3 games back, what a bum eh?

To lose an art ross to jamie benn, pretty cute definitely.

 

[wetcoast]

2018 shouldn't have gone to MacK. If we are all being honest we know the media pulled every BS argument in the book to frame the race against two good ol canadian boys that hadn't won a major award yet.

OV won the Rocket, and won the metro with the caps, and eventually the cup. Kucherov finished higher than MacK and Hall in the Art Ross race, and leads the Bolts to the best record in the east. Malkin finished higher than MacK and Hall and lead the Penguins to a great record.

If Florida wins on more game or NJ loses one more that year Hall would have been out of the top 3 in voting and Mack would have won.

The playoffs don't matter for the Hart and the Richard winner was 9th in voting that year why even mention him?

 

[gretzkyoilers]

McDavid may not may not have been playing injured earlier in the season. It’s a silly debate. Nothing has ever been confirmed by anyone. It could have been a cold streak. People can believe what they want.

No he was hurt and the team will not disclose what it is unless it was very serious (he missed two games during this stretch). For those that watch the Oilers regularly it was clear he was not snake bitten or lacked motivation. He was definitely playing through an injury...

 

[wetcoast]

To lose an art ross to jamie benn, pretty cute definitely.

You cited a full season just like another poster cited a full season for McDavid.

I don't know why it's so hard to make factual statements.

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

If Florida wins on more game or NJ loses one more that year Hall would have been out of the top 3 in voting and Mack would have won.

Agreed with this. Voters dropped the ball on the 2018 Hart.

You cited a full season just like another poster cited a full season for McDavid.

I don't know why it's so hard to make factual statements.

Not entirely sure what your point is?

I'm saying that Crosby's 2015 season was far more "cute" than McDavid's 2024 season has been. You disagree?

 

[Video Nasty]

I’d rather him win another cup than any of those and I bet he feels the same way.

The same for all players. Hes not gonna have a "sad" off season after another cup win if he is just edged out of the regular season trophies. Its really the media that will care about it.

I understand that you as fans of whoever wears the Avalanche sweater don’t care, but it all matters. Otherwise, you’ve bought into the narrative that players care solely about championships and anything else is pointless. These are highly driven and motivated people at the top of their chosen field. Thinking they don’t care is naive.

I can promise you that if MacKinnon were to win the individual hardware and lead the Avs on a Conn Smythe winning Cup run, all would be mentioned in future discussions of his greatness.

 

[wetcoast]

Agreed with this. Voters dropped the ball on the 2018 Hart.

I think so as well but the problem is more with people thinking that it's a negative on Mack and McDavid both had Hart worthy seasons and everyone would have ranked them higher on the best player in the world right now question.

Not entirely sure what your point is?

It wasn't just directed at you but someone upthread tried to make the claim that McDavid wasn't hurt and skipped over the 2 actual games he did miss and that he ovbiosly came back early.

This comes up with Crosby too like 77 games is the same as 82 games and makes some sort of point which is overstated usually,

I'm saying that Crosby's 2015 season was far more "cute" than McDavid's 2024 season has been. You disagree?

McDavids has been better if that's what you mean by cute.

But the point is that people are trying to be cute by looking at won won and then implying something totally different to a guy who didn't win.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

I understand that you as fans of whoever wears the Avalanche sweater don’t care, but it all matters. Otherwise, you’ve bought into the narrative that players care solely about championships and anything else is pointless. These are highly driven and motivated people at the top of their chosen field. Thinking they don’t care is naive.

I can promise you that if MacKinnon were to win the individual hardware and lead the Avs on a Conn Smythe winning Cup run, all would be mentioned in future discussions of his greatness.

Well duh. Nobody has won the hart + Conn Smythe in the same year since Gretzky. If anyone were to, it would be a major talking point.

However, I do agree with that the other poster is saying and it's true for any of the contenders for individual hardware. If you win the cup , you'll be the happiest. If you are runner up for an award and win the cup? Amazing feeling all summer.

If you win the hart or AR and don't win the cup? Still amazing but that player is probably going to be pretty upset with the season as a while because we have heard basically every superstar ever talk about how it's cup or bust and if you don't win that, it's all that's on your mind. Any superstar to play the game would take a top 3 hart finish and a cup over the award and no cup.

That said , it obviously matter for greatness lists /career accomplishments to win them. But to the players themselves they would all prefer to take the cup while also putting up an MVP caliber season. That's just the way it is. You play to win. It's a team sport, but any superstar who doesn't win the cup will blame themselves

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Yes, my very obvious Oilers avatar says I have an Avalanche based agenda.....

MacKinnon SHOULD have won the Hart that year, Edmonton didn't make the playoffs and for as much as I think that is a stupid rule, there was no way McDavid wins that year with the Oilers out.

Taylor Hall finished 6th in scoring and didn't drag anyone anywhere, he was a good story for the media to latch on to, and they like to give awards based on their own narratives.

MacK literally finished 4th in scoring. Kucherov finished higher and led the bolts to the best record in the east. Mackinnon is lucky he road a narrative.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

MacK literally finished 4th in scoring. Kucherov finished higher and led the bolts to the best record in the east. Mackinnon is lucky he road a narrative.

Well kucherov's team is barely a wildcard team this year so i guess you're voting for mack then.