Nikita Kucherov is the clear favorite for the Art Ross Trophy

[TheStatican]

MacKinnon now has 100 points in his last 54 games and 141 in his last 82, can he keep it up for a while longer and hold off Kuch and McDavid? There's already been 5 lead changes in the last two months alone between MacKinnon and Kucherov and 5 points is the most he's lead by. Kuch has lead by as many as 9 points(Dec 16), only to see that lead evaporate and then some, setting up to be a photo finish.

Here's a look at the great race charted out so far;

More info here

The 2023-24 Ross Race; Tracking Kucherov, MacKinnon and McDavid

McDavid just had a historic 2023-24 season but as unbelievable as it seems Kucherov and MacKinnon are both currently just 4 and 5 points off his pace from his pace at the same time last season, with Kuch even briefly matching it gms 20 & 21. I don't think anyone expects them to also hit 150+...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[bobholly39]

Fair points but 2 guys have won the Art Ross and it's really for Mack to lose at this point and that's only happening with an injury IMO.

I assume you mean it's really for Mack to lose the hart at this point right, not the Ross? Because the Ross is still wide open between the 3 - Mack is slightly in the lead as of today true, but I think it's too early to call a favorite between the 3.

As for the hart - I like MacK, and I'd love it for him if he could win Hart + Ross this year. I like all 3 players in fact, so I'm sure i'll be happy either way with a great race to the finish.

But one thing I'll say is - if MacK is going to win the Hart, I really, really hope he wins the Ross too. It'll somehow feel unfair if he loses the Ross to Kucherov by 2 points but still wins the hart.

Ignoring McDavid for a second (voter fatigue, so bar might be slightly higher for him to win a hart, fair or not) - I feel as though Kucherov and MacKinnon are having comparable seasons and have been in a race for top point getter all year - it would just feel a bit cheap if one guy wins the point race, but voters vote for the other guy for the Hart.

I don't mind seeing either Kucherov or MacKinnon with the Hart - I just hope if one of them do, it's because they also won the Ross.

 

[bobholly39]

Updated totals as of this morning:

MacKinnon on pace for 140 points, including 51 goals, in 82 games. 18 games to go
Kucherov on pace for 136 points, including 49 goals, in 81 games. 18 games to go
McDavid on pace for 136 points, including 104 assists, in 80 games. 21 games to go

Pastrnak on pace for 115 points in 82 games in distant 4th place.
Matthews still on pace for 71 goals, but only 105 points.

MacKinnon has certainly taken a commanding lead in the past few days, but it's obviously still close for either of the 3 to win.

I still say - as incredible as McDavid landing 100+ assists would be - he'd be only the 4th player in history to do so after Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr - it's still not better than more goals. If all 3 players end up with similar point total, Kuch and Mack having ~50 goals to McDavid's ~30 should be an advantage in their favor, not a disadvantage.

McDavid might win the hart - but he'll need to win the Ross by minimum 5 points to do so in my opinion.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Looking for another big game for mack tonight to seal it. Another 4pt night n i think thats it. Getting hot at the best time

Looking for another big game for mack tonight to seal it. Another 4pt night n i think thats it. Getting hot at the best time. Regardless the hart is his

 

[wetcoast]

I assume you mean it's really for Mack to lose the hart at this point right, not the Ross? Because the Ross is still wide open between the 3 - Mack is slightly in the lead as of today true, but I think it's too early to call a favorite between the 3.

As for the hart - I like MacK, and I'd love it for him if he could win Hart + Ross this year. I like all 3 players in fact, so I'm sure i'll be happy either way with a great race to the finish.

But one thing I'll say is - if MacK is going to win the Hart, I really, really hope he wins the Ross too. It'll somehow feel unfair if he loses the Ross to Kucherov by 2 points but still wins the hart.

Ignoring McDavid for a second (voter fatigue, so bar might be slightly higher for him to win a hart, fair or not) - I feel as though Kucherov and MacKinnon are having comparable seasons and have been in a race for top point getter all year - it would just feel a bit cheap if one guy wins the point race, but voters vote for the other guy for the Hart.

I don't mind seeing either Kucherov or MacKinnon with the Hart - I just hope if one of them do, it's because they also won the Ross.

Yes I meant the Hart of course, my bad.

 

[hamzarocks]

2 pts for Mackinnon up to 111 now in 65. Starting to create some space in the ross race

If Mcdavid has a slowish next 5 (say1.5 ppg) think Mack takes all the big awards outside of rocket. He is super hot at the right time

 

[Video Nasty]

The Oilers and Lightning play today. The Oilers play tomorrow as well. The Avs don’t play again until Tuesday.

McDavid has a chance to pile up some points. Buffalo are mid as usual and he and the Oilers usually dominate Crosby and the Penguins.

Anything less than leaving the weekend with at least 105 points and two more wins will be something of a disappointment.

 

[NateTheGreat]

Mack now highest PPG, most EVP and most goals between Kuch, McDavid and himself. What a remarkable season.

I’d still lean McDavid as the favourite for the Art Ross but it’s getting close now. I wonder if McDavid rests the final 1-2 games if the Oilers are locked into the #2 seed in the Pacific. It’s all about the cup for him this season and I can’t imagine he’d risk injury playing in meaningless games right before the playoffs begin.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Mack now highest PPG, most EVP and most goals between Kuch, McDavid and himself. What a remarkable season.

I’d still lean McDavid as the favourite for the Art Ross but it’s getting close now. I wonder if McDavid rests the final 1-2 games if the Oilers are locked into the #2 seed in the Pacific. It’s all about the cup for him this season and I can’t imagine he’d risk injury playing in meaningless games right before the playoffs begin.

I really don't believe that he's been healthy for much of the season. Resting a couple of games before the playoffs probably wouldn't be a bad idea for both him and Draisaitl. Unless the Ross or 100 assists are on the line at that point I'd rather see him rest up because we'll need him at his best when the real games start.

 

[OilWagon]

Mack in the driver seat, if Mcdavid isn't going to win the Art Ross I'd like it to be Mack so he can collect some hardware to cement his legacy.

 

[Liga]

MacKinnon
W.Nylander
Matthews
McDavid
Kucherov

Art Ross Trophy nominees?

 

[OilWagon]

MacKinnon
W.Nylander
Matthews
McDavid
Kucherov

Art Ross Trophy nominees?

What?

 

[NateTheGreat]

I really don't believe that he's been healthy for much of the season. Resting a couple of games before the playoffs probably wouldn't be a bad idea for both him and Draisaitl. Unless the Ross or 100 assists are on the line at that point I'd rather see him rest up because we'll need him at his best when the real games start.

Both of these are very likely and that’s where the question if he sits comes into play. There’s no question he would rest if he’s out of the Art Ross race.

 

[Kerberos]

McDavid is looking off again for whatever reason. Can't even handle the puck lately.

MacKinnon has turned it up the past 3 games in a big way and has widened the lead to the point where I don't think McDavid is going to make up 11 points even with 3 games in hand.

 

[missionAvs]

Marner
W.Nylander
Matthews
Tavares
Kampf

Art Ross Trophy nominees?

FTFY

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

McDavid is look off again for whatever reason. Can't even handle the puck lately.

MacKinnon has turned it up the past 3 games in a big way and has widened the lead to the point where I don't think McDavid is going to make up 11 points even with 3 games in hand.

12 with goal tiebreaker

 

[Liga]

What?

I know for sure.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Big fat donut for mcdonald. Lets go nate one more big game n its game over.....

@Video Nasty

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Updated totals as of this morning:

MacKinnon on pace for 140 points, including 51 goals, in 82 games. 18 games to go
Kucherov on pace for 136 points, including 49 goals, in 81 games. 18 games to go
McDavid on pace for 136 points, including 104 assists, in 80 games. 21 games to go

Pastrnak on pace for 115 points in 82 games in distant 4th place.
Matthews still on pace for 71 goals, but only 105 points.

MacKinnon has certainly taken a commanding lead in the past few days, but it's obviously still close for either of the 3 to win.

I still say - as incredible as McDavid landing 100+ assists would be - he'd be only the 4th player in history to do so after Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr - it's still not better than more goals. If all 3 players end up with similar point total, Kuch and Mack having ~50 goals to McDavid's ~30 should be an advantage in their favor, not a disadvantage.

McDavid might win the hart - but he'll need to win the Ross by minimum 5 points to do so in my opinion.

I still disagree with the sentiment that McDavid needs to win by 5+, I still think an Art Ross win and McDavid leading the oilers to a division title seals the Hart.

 

[Golden_Jet]

MacKinnon
W.Nylander
Matthews
McDavid
Kucherov

Art Ross Trophy nominees?

Better explain why there are nominees.

I still disagree with the sentiment that McDavid needs to win by 5+, I still think an Art Ross win and McDavid leading the oilers to a division title seals the Hart.

If go by hart definition then it’s Kucherov, such a huge lead over second on his team, not sure how many voters go by that though.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Better explain why there are nominees.


If go by hart definition then it’s Kucherov, such a huge lead over second on his team, not sure how many voters go by that though.

@pal why the laughing emoji
Everyone is laughing at you suggesting nominees for Art Ross, I’m assuming you know what the trophy is, I hope.

 

[TheStatican]

I'm getting the feeling that someone is going to drop off here... either Kuch or McDavid.

This game and only grabbing 1 point against the Jackets really hurts McD's chances and the next game against the Pens starts in less than 20 hours. Despite their overall ineptitude, the Pens have actually been pretty good defensively this year. After that he'll only have 2 games in hand. He might not even hit crack 130; I mean is he really going to play against the Coyotes and Av's on the road in a back-to-back just days before the most important playoff campaign of his career begins if he's not within a few points of the Ross?? Doubt it.

 

[Video Nasty]

I'm getting the feeling that someone is going to drop off here... either Kuch or McDavid.

This game and only grabbing 1 point against the Jackets really hurts McD's chances and the next game against the Pens starts in less than 20 hours. Despite their overall ineptitude, the Pens have actually been pretty good defensively this year. After that he'll only have 2 games in hand. He might not even hit crack 130; I mean is he really going to play against the Coyotes and Av's on the road in a back-to-back just days before the most important playoff campaign of his career begins if he's not within a few points of the Ross?? Doubt it.

Best thing about McDavid is when the grumblings of doubt begin to seep in, that’s exactly when he goes into supernova mode.

That being said, as @Kerberos noted, he looked off again today. That shootout attempt was bad also.

 

[Beukeboom]

Time is not in McDavids favour. He's not making up 12 points in 3 games, so it all boils down to what he can do in the remaning 20. But the less games left the trickier it will be. 12/20 = 0.6 points per game. That's not nothing, especially considering he at some point has to enter panic mode and play 30 mins a night to catch the others, or perhaps rest before the playoffs (less minutes, and maybe skipping a game or two).

Also looking at the graph above, it's clear the "#97 is inching in on McKinnon since the start of the season" narrative isn't really true. They were very close both in the beginning and around the halfway mark.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Don't want to be knee jerk but Kucherov with just one assist in a game where Tampa scores 7 goals.

Think this race is just about over