Nikita Kucherov is the clear favorite for the Art Ross Trophy

[WalterLundy]

As a big McDavid fan I’ll say the race is over. Kucherov has shown no reason why he l slow down

I wouldn’t say it’s over but if it is then you have to tip the cap to 86. It would be the best non McDavid peak season of the post lockout era. Without the injury could have been a lot different and since his recovery 97 is playing at the best ppg pace of his career. Remarkable to have caught up the way he has.

In any event McDavid is showing that he is truly one of the very best to have ever played this game. Here is how he stacks up to the best forwards I’ve ever seen in the same environment.

80-87: Gretzky’s years
EVG: 2.81, PPG: 0.91, SHG: 0.12
85-94: Lemieux’s years
EVG: 2.52, PPG: 0.97, SHG: 0.14
94-02: Jagr’s years
EVG: 1.98, PPG: 0.74, SHG: 0.11
06-15: Crosby’s years
EVG: 1.96, PPG: 0.71, SHG: 0.09
16-24: McDavid’s years
EVG: 2.26, PPG: 0.60, SHG: 0.08

1979-80 to 2023-24 average:
EVG: 2.21, PPG: 0.75, SHG: 0.11

Wayne Gretzky 80-87:
632 GP: 1224 PTS (1.94)
(811 EVP, 322 PPP, 91 SHP)
159 points per 82 games

Mario Lemieux 85-94:
599 GP: 1007 PTS (1.68)
(597 EVP, 367 PPP, 43 SHP)
138 points per 82 games

Connor McDavid:
622 GP: 1012 PTS (1.63)
(589 EVP, 400 PPP, 23 SHP)
134 points per 82 games

Prime Jaromir Jagr 94-02:
644 GP: 1014 PTS (1.57)
(694 EVP, 308 PPP, 12 SHP)
129 points per 82 games

Sidney Crosby 06-15:
627 GP: 939 PTS (1.50)
(586 EVP, 343 PPP, 10 SHP)
123 points per 82 games

McDavid is very close to Lemieux and the only forward that clears him by a large margin is Wayne Gretzky himself. As someone who watched all 5 of these guys he really is special.

 

[authentic]

I wouldn’t say it’s over but if it is then you have to tip the cap to 86. It would be the best non McDavid peak season of the post lockout era. Without the injury could have been a lot different and since his recovery 97 is playing at the best ppg pace of his career. Remarkable to have caught up the way he has.

In any event McDavid is showing that he is truly one of the very best to have ever played this game. Here is how he stacks up to the best forwards I’ve ever seen in the same environment.

80-87: Gretzky’s years
EVG: 2.81, PPG: 0.91, SHG: 0.12
85-94: Lemieux’s years
EVG: 2.52, PPG: 0.97, SHG: 0.14
94-02: Jagr’s years
EVG: 1.98, PPG: 0.74, SHG: 0.11
06-15: Crosby’s years
EVG: 1.96, PPG: 0.71, SHG: 0.09
16-24: McDavid’s years
EVG: 2.26, PPG: 0.60, SHG: 0.08

1979-80 to 2023-24 average:
EVG: 2.21, PPG: 0.75, SHG: 0.11

Wayne Gretzky 80-87:
632 GP: 1224 PTS (1.94)
(811 EVP, 322 PPP, 91 SHP)
159 points per 82 games

Mario Lemieux 85-94:
599 GP: 1007 PTS (1.68)
(597 EVP, 367 PPP, 43 SHP)
138 points per 82 games

Connor McDavid:
622 GP: 1012 PTS (1.63)
(589 EVP, 400 PPP, 23 SHP)
134 points per 82 games

Prime Jaromir Jagr 94-02:
644 GP: 1014 PTS (1.57)
(694 EVP, 308 PPP, 12 SHP)
129 points per 82 games

Sidney Crosby 06-15:
627 GP: 939 PTS (1.50)
(586 EVP, 343 PPP, 10 SHP)
123 points per 82 games

McDavid is very close to Lemieux and the only forward that clears him by a large margin is Wayne Gretzky himself. As someone who watched all 5 of these guys he really is special.

Amazing how close he is to Lemieux here, and shockingly ahead on the powerplay? Never would have expected that. Of course Lemieux’s big 1995-96 season is not included there where he had over half his 161 points there.

 

[Minar]

As a big McDavid fan I’ll say the race is over. Kucherov has shown no reason why he l slow down

Sigh. Mcdavid will still manage to win.

 

[WalterLundy]

Amazing how close he is to Lemieux here, and shockingly ahead on the powerplay? Never would have expected that. Of course Lemieux’s big 1995-96 season is not included there where he had over half his 161 points there.

Yeah when you put Lemieux (85-94) and McDavid (16-present) into the league average environment from 1980 to now it gets very interesting. For Lemieux’s years there was an average of 0.97 power play goals per game, for McDavid’s only 0.60. The average from ‘80-present is at 0.75. Lemieux’s 475 points on the powerplay goes down to 367 while McDavid’s 320 goes up to 400.

This works out to 0.64 power play points per game for McDavid and 0.61 for Mario. Still close but what McDavid has been able to do on the powerplay is really unprecedented when contextualized. Especially in a league with far less opportunities on the powerplay to go with it.

If you do this for singular seasons based off of the yearly league EVG/PPG/SHG rates and taken to ‘80-present levels it is more of the same.

‘96 Lemieux: 70 GP: 150 PTS (2.14)
(77 EVP, 66 PPP, 7 SHP)

‘89 Lemieux: 76 GP: 158 PTS (2.08)
(89 EVP, 56 PPP, 13 SHP)

‘23 McDavid: 82 GP: 159 PTS (1.94)
(69 EVP, 82 PPP, 8 SHP)

‘21 McDavid: 56 GP: 116 PTS (2.07)
(67 EVP, 49 PPP, 0 SHP)

I took 2 of Lemieux’s 3 best seasons and McDavid’s two best years. ‘93 was not near this for powerplay points as he was more dominant at even strength outside of any player other than Gretzky at his peak year/years. ‘96 and ‘89 were more powerplay dependent for Mario while still top 3 seasons for him. As you can see McDavid is at a powerplay point per game and Lemieux ‘96 is at 0.94. Even ‘21 McDavid is close at 0.88.

If you combine the seasons you are looking at 308 in 146 for Mario (2.11/173 per 82) with 122 PPP (0.84) and 274 in 138 for McDavid (1.99/163 per 82) with 131 PPP (0.95). Mario gets the edge here as 10 points per year is enough to be clear but McDavid is much closer than many are willing to admit.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If McDavid wins then given how far back he was and the elite level of competition (this ain’t Jamie Benn with sub 90 points here), it would be the most impressive art ross comeback ever. It’d be another huge notch in the McDavid legend.

 

[Beukeboom]

If McDavid wins then given how far back he was and the elite level of competition (this ain’t Jamie Benn with sub 90 points here), it would be the most impressive art ross comeback ever. It’d be another huge notch in the McDavid legend.

More impressive than Mario in 92-93? Nah...but impressive nevertheless. Definitely up there.

 

[Xerloris]

I don't care what the stats say, McDavid will never IMO be viewed anywhere close to Mario. Mario did what he did in an Era where they purposefully broke his arm in the playoffs, with a debilitating back injury and cancer. I'm not saying MCDavid isn't great because he is, I just cannot ever compare him to Mario in any way.

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

From The Athletic last week... the top 4 are a tight group with Matthews tied for 3rd, any of those 4 could win it. Then there's a large drop off to #5. So yes, Matthews is providing Selke level defense.

I don't see McDavid's name anywhere. If you watch Matthews play without the puck, you'd understand what an animal he is in all 3 zones. Considering the way he scores, it's pretty clear that while McDavid is the best overall offensive driver, Matthews is the best pure goal scorer and best 2-way player in the league.

View attachment 823862

From that same article, in the Hart category McDavid has a "defensive rating" in the 2 range.

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

This, but countless times over the last few years. Watch Matthews the whole clip

I don't like to give outsized importance to single plays, but this shift is my most vivid memory of Matthews play this season (as an Oilers fan).

First losing a board battle to Ryan McLeod, second screening the goalie on a point shot which prevents the goalie from stopping the play, and third boxing out McDavid/screening goalie again to then get out of the way at the last second to allow McLeod to score the go ahead goal with 3:02 left to play. Gotta be one of his worst shifts this year.

 

[gretzkyoilers]

I don't care what the stats say, McDavid will never IMO be viewed anywhere close to Mario. Mario did what he did in an Era where they purposefully broke his arm in the playoffs, with a debilitating back injury and cancer. I'm not saying MCDavid isn't great because he is, I just cannot ever compare him to Mario in any way.

Yeah when you watch the obstruction in the 90's, it's crazy that he and Jagr got as many points as they did. Watch any Jagr highlight from this era and it's insane. I love McDavid, but when I see the obstruction increase, his production decreases. Again, different players excel in different eras.

 

[Sentinel]

When was the last time Kucherov was mentioned in this thread?

 

[McRpro]

When was the last time Kucherov was mentioned in this thread?

Who?

 

[WalterLundy]

When was the last time Kucherov was mentioned in this thread?

Probably was me. When I mentioned that his year will be the second best post lockout season if he maintains this.

More impressive than Mario in 92-93? Nah...but impressive nevertheless. Definitely up there.

1992-93: EVG: 2.44, PPG: 1.03, SHG: 0.15
2020-21: EVG: 2.25, PPG: 0.57, SHG: 0.07
2022-23: EVG: 2.39, PPG: 0.65, SHG: 0.10
2023-24: EVG: 2.35, PPG: 0.65, SHG: 0.10

21 McDavid in ‘93:
56 GP: 141 PTS (2.52)
Paces to 151 in 60 games (the amount that Lemieux played in ‘93). It’s not the 160 in 60 that Mario did but it’s close and enough to win the the Ross in 60 games as well.

‘23 McDavid in ‘93:
63 GP: 158 PTS (2.51)
He also would have won it in 2023 in 60 games (150 in 60 is what that is for his first 60).

I understand that narrative wise Lemieux with his cancer battle is what makes it by far the most impressive (as well as his comeback production) and as someone who was there for about 10 home games that year I can appreciate it more than anyone. All I’m saying is that from a purely peer competition and era adjusted perspective not only would peak McDavid have won the ‘93 Ross in 60 games (albeit without ailments) but Nikita Kucherov’s year is on pace to be worth 183 in 84 games in 1993 levels.

That blows away the 148 Pat LaFontaine put up in 84 games. When you consider that elevated level you’d have to chase with a career worst start to a season (Mario didn’t have that) it really would be the most impressive Art Ross comeback but in a narrative sense it pales in comparison to Lemieux.

 

[DFC]

Currently in a defensive, playoff style battle vs. Torts' Flyers. Good chance he goes pointless tonight, opening an opportunity for the other two to make up some ground. lol, Even so, he looks great in this game. He's a special player.

 

[DFC]

Probably was me. When I mentioned that his year will be the second best post lockout season if he maintains this.


1992-93: EVG: 2.44, PPG: 1.03, SHG: 0.15
2020-21: EVG: 2.25, PPG: 0.57, SHG: 0.07
2022-23: EVG: 2.39, PPG: 0.65, SHG: 0.10
2023-24: EVG: 2.35, PPG: 0.65, SHG: 0.10

21 McDavid in ‘93:
56 GP: 141 PTS (2.52)
Paces to 151 in 60 games (the amount that Lemieux played in ‘93). It’s not the 160 in 60 that Mario did but it’s close and enough to win the the Ross in 60 games as well.

‘23 McDavid in ‘93:
63 GP: 158 PTS (2.51)
He also would have won it in 2023 in 60 games (150 in 60 is what that is for his first 60).

I understand that narrative wise Lemieux with his cancer battle is what makes it by far the most impressive (as well as his comeback production) and as someone who was there for about 10 home games that year I can appreciate it more than anyone. All I’m saying is that from a purely peer competition and era adjusted perspective not only would peak McDavid have won the ‘93 Ross in 60 games (albeit without ailments) but Nikita Kucherov’s year is on pace to be worth 183 in 84 games in 1993 levels.

That blows away the 148 Pat LaFontaine put up in 84 games. When you consider that elevated level you’d have to chase with a career worst start to a season (Mario didn’t have that) it really would be the most impressive Art Ross comeback but in a narrative sense it pales in comparison to Lemieux.

I think we're in a pretty special era right now. McDavid appears to be a golden tier player, all time. Kucherov, to me, is on the Jagr tier. A step down, but clearly above many of the all time greats. I've seen a lot of them. But on a game by game basis, Kucherov is a very special player. I feel like he will be criminally underrated historically.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I wouldn’t say it’s over but if it is then you have to tip the cap to 86.

The thing is, this IS a McDavid peak season. He is coming directly off a 153 point year.

If McDavid stays healthy and loses the Ross to a MacKinnon/Kucherov level player, it will reflect poorly on #97, since many are projecting him as a Big 4 level player, and none of the four would’ve lost a race to Nate or Nikita.

 

[Beukeboom]

The thing is, this IS a McDavid peak season. He is coming directly off a 153 point year.

If McDavid stays healthy and loses the Ross to a MacKinnon/Kucherov level player, it will reflect poorly on #97, since many are projecting him as a Big 4 level player, and none of the four would’ve lost a race to Nate or Nikita.

Gordie lost several Arts to Nate and Nikitas? Only Wayne, Mario and Bobby were never beaten when healthy in their prime (other then by eachother) and Wayne and Bobby less so.

 

[daver]

I think we're in a pretty special era right now. McDavid appears to be a golden tier player, all time. Kucherov, to me, is on the Jagr tier. A step down, but clearly above many of the all time greats. I've seen a lot of them. But on a game by game basis, Kucherov is a very special player. I feel like he will be criminally underrated historically.

In terms of domination, McDavid is on the Crosby/Jagr tier but has the advantage over Crosby with healthier regular seasons and Jagr with a better career start.

In his 7 year prime, Jagr was clearly ahead of everyone else:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Kucherov is more like Sakic/Forsberg or a bit better than Selanne/Kariya as he is a winger.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[Corto]

In his 7 year prime, Jagr was clearly ahead of everyone else:

As they would say over on r/nba, a lot of "nephews" don't know that Jagr basically played almost all of his prime with people draped all over him. The man never embellished or dove, and the amount of abuse he took was obscene.

A prime Jagr would be either ahead or on par with McDavid in the current NHL.
Prime Jagr was amazing.

 

[Regal]

Gordie lost several Arts to Nate and Nikitas? Only Wayne, Mario and Bobby were never beaten when healthy in their prime (other then by eachother) and Wayne and Bobby less so.

Yea, Howe was beaten by Dutch Reibel at 26 and Bronco Horvath at 31. I don’t think losing the Art Ross to a season like Kucherov is having would be much of a negative. If McDavid maintains pace, it’d still be a better season than a couple of his Art Ross wins.

 

[daver]

As they would say over on r/nba, a lot of "nephews" don't know that Jagr basically played almost all of his prime with people draped all over him. The man never embellished or dove, and the amount of abuse he took was obscene.

A prime Jagr would be either ahead or on par with McDavid in the current NHL.
Prime Jagr was amazing.

My post wasn't an opportunity to revisit the over the top hyperbole of the DPE.

There is no reason to think that Jagr is any more dominant than he was in any other era. Ironically, by focusing on the obstruction in the DPE, you can argue that big players like Jagr and Lindros thrived more than they would in others eras like the current NHL where size isn't as important.

 

[WalterLundy]

The thing is, this IS a McDavid peak season. He is coming directly off a 153 point year.

If McDavid stays healthy and loses the Ross to a MacKinnon/Kucherov level player, it will reflect poorly on #97, since many are projecting him as a Big 4 level player, and none of the four would’ve lost a race to Nate or Nikita.

‘21 and ‘23 McDavid are a bit better than this version because he was injured early and that damaged his ppg. Other than that it is just as good if not better since his recovery. ‘22 McDavid wasn’t a great “peak” year by this standard then yet he won the Ross due to lackluster competition. If you use even strength, powerplay and shorthanded levels for ‘24 and whatever season you are trying to translate to it you’ll see that very few seasons in league history would beat this one.

If Kucherov manages to maintain this current pace over 81 games (139 points) then the only seasons that would beat this based off of those levels for this season are:

‘71 Esposito: 78 GP: 149 P
‘74 Esposito: 78 GP: 141 P
‘82 Gretzky: 80 GP: 163 P
‘83 Gretzky: 80 GP: 157 P
‘84 Gretzky: 74 GP: 160 P
‘85 Gretzky: 80 GP: 165 P
‘86 Gretzky: 80 GP: 167 P
‘87 Gretzky: 79 GP: 153 P
‘89 Lemieux: 76 GP: 155 P
‘91 Gretzky: 78 GP: 144 P
‘96 Lemieux: 70 GP: 145 P
‘96 Jagr: 82 GP: 145 P
‘99 Jagr: 81 GP: 147 P
‘23 McDavid: 82 GP: 152 P

Only 14 seasons ever beat this Kucherov season if maintained. Howe never would have won a Ross in ‘24 and same with Orr (understandable as he was a defenseman). Mario would have lost 15 of his 17 seasons (‘93 with pace he wins). ‘92 Lemieux is about even with Kucherov when adjusted to ‘24 for ppg and ‘88, ‘90, ‘97 are all below. This season he is having is not to be underestimated.

 

[Calderon]

Kucherov, MacKinnon and McDavid are all at above 1.0 assists per game. Should they keep it up till the end of the season that'd make it the first instance of three such feats in the same season since 1995-96 when four players accomplished it (Lemieux and Francis with 92, Jagr 87 and Forsberg 86) — yet another clear indication of scoring levels trending up again.

 

[koyvoo]

McDavid now 9 pts Back of Kuch with 4 games in hand. Getting tight.

 

[FDBluth]

McDavid Now 9 pts Back of Kuch with 4 games in hand. Getting tight.

5 games actually.