Player Discussion Nick Suzuki Part 11

[Lafleurs Guy]

Nobody is using false excuses.

You're not reading this thread closely enough.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

But I thought it wasn't a Caufield/Suzuki debate lol

It's not.

Your take has been soundly refuted several times, by various posters.

Um... no. People attributed it to injuries, but it's clear the slump preceded it.

It's a matter of consistency. I don’t want to see another era where we rely on a Saku Koivu type player to lead us to a cup that will never come.

If Nick’s better than this it’s time to show it. No excuses.

 

[Rapala]

You're not reading this thread closely enough.

You know I was critical of Suzuki's play more than once last season. Once I digested the results at season's end I realized I was overly harsh.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You know I was critical of Suzuki's play more than once last season. Once I digested the results at season's end I realized I was overly harsh.

He didn't have a terrible season. I'm not suggesting he did. Averaging 62 points per 82 after CC went down isn't bad considering the injury issues. But his month + slump preceding it is a concern. He was basically a ghost.

So far he's shown he can be an excellent 2nd line center.

Also interesting that his drop corresponds exactly when Monahan went down. That's when Dach left his line. Dach was really good at driving the play into the other team's zone. That probably had a lot do with it as well. Dach was a point per game with CC/Nick and then paced for 50 per season after being moved to center. Suzuki feel off a cliff for the better part of a month and CC didn't get an assist the rest of the way until his injury.

 

[Miller Time]

Um... no. People attributed it to injuries, but it's clear the slump preceded it.

False

It's a matter of consistency. I don’t want to see another era where we rely on a Saku Koivu type player to lead us to a cup that will never come.

You mean like consistently improving production (goals, points, ppg) each year lol

Not sure what kind of expectations you have, but that kind of early career steady progression is a great indicator of consistency from an athlete.

If Nick’s better than this it’s time to show it. No excuses.

That's the beauty of having a young player that has been so consistent in his growth through several years and significant external challenges (from Ducharme, to lottery picking rosters to injury-ravaged season)... It's a strong bet that he will continue to improve.

Again, no excuses needed. He's thus far exceeded expectations and there is quite clearly further growth to be seen.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Suzuki had 66 points last year playing with a myriad of players. Habs led the league in man games lost and of course that included him losing Caufield the last 36 games.
Suzuki is developing into the same caliber of a player that Patrice Bergeron was and that is #1 Center quality.
Nick hits 80 points this season.

I was just listening to a podcast that had John Lu on as a guest. Lu said he was talking to a bruin scout who was involved in the Bergeron draft pick. The scout said after Suzuki was traded and he got to know the player, he reminded him a lot of Bergeron at the same age. A lot of the same attributes.

Not the first time I’ve heard the comparison.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

False

Go argue with the math.

You mean like consistently improving production (goals, points, ppg) each year lol

Not sure what kind of expectations you have, but that kind of early career steady progression is a great indicator of consistency from an athlete.

If a fourth liner improves every year but still puts up fourth line production... does that make him a first liner?

Yes, Suzuki has improved every year. That's great. He's also really streaky. One minute he looks like a legit first liner and the next he disappears. That's the story of his career so far and it's what has separated him from being considered a better player.

The talent IS there. He's proven it. But he hasn't been able to sustain his play at the highest levels. That's the difference between a first and second line player.

That's the beauty of having a young player that has been so consistent in his growth through several years and significant external challenges (from Ducharme, to lottery picking rosters to injury-ravaged season)... It's a strong bet that he will continue to improve.

Again, no excuses needed. He's thus far exceeded expectations and there is quite clearly further growth to be seen.

What were your expectations?

I seem to remember us hoping he'd be a 90 point player. I felt like he had the talent to do it and last year I thought he'd finally arrived. Maybe he'll do it this year. Maybe it's his big coming out party. Nobody hopes so more than me. I watched him in the minors and loved the guy.

But I'm not going to listen to excuses about him falling off the way he did. There's no excuse for disappearing for a month like he did. Either he's dependent on Dach/CC or he can legit drive a line himself. If he's a number one, he has to start producing like one.

It's past time for him to prove that he's a number one. If he doesn't do it now, then we need to accept it and plan accordingly.

 

[Scriptor]

Go argue with the math.

If a fourth liner improves every year but still puts up fourth line production... does that make him a first liner?

Yes, Suzuki has improved every year. That's great. He's also really streaky. One minute he looks like a legit first liner and the next he disappears. That's the story of his career so far and it's what has separated him from being considered a better player.

The talent IS there. He's proven it. But he hasn't been able to sustain his play at the highest levels. That's the difference between a first and second line player.

What were your expectations?

I seem to remember us hoping he'd be a 90 point player. I felt like he had the talent to do it and last year I thought he'd finally arrived. Maybe he'll do it this year. Maybe it's his big coming out party. Nobody hopes so more than me. I watched him in the minors and loved the guy.

But I'm not going to listen to excuses about him falling off the way he did. There's no excuse for disappearing for a month like he did. Either he's dependent on Dach/CC or he can legit drive a line himself. If he's a number one, he has to start producing like one.

It's past time for him to prove that he's a number one. If he doesn't do it now, then we need to accept it and plan accordingly.

I think this may have seriously reached the point of "I need to be right" for you and you've gone ALL IN arguing anything positive that can be said about Suzuki.

Perhaps Suzuki will reach the level you say he needs to 'break out' to show, but will do so gradually over the next two years and never actually 'break out' to get there?

Suzuki is built like a block at 5'11" and 206lbs, but he's also a very cerebral player. Maybe he needs to figure it out over a longer period of time than your estimate of when a player reaches his prime (which I still think is too general and exaggerated).

I'm rooting for Suzuki this year and next.

You sound like him succeeding would be unfortunate and contrary to your narrative.

Wanting to be right often goes against wishing the best for your team.

That's what I see from fans caught up in circular arguments on fan boards.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I think this may have seriously reached the point of "I need to be right" for you and you've gone ALL IN arguing anything positive that can be said about Suzuki.

Okay...

And then you post this?

You sound like him succeeding would be unfortunate and contrary to your narrative.

Go away man. Seriously.

I've simply said that he's so far not lived up to what I'd hoped he'd be. I said I hope he finds the consistency next year.

Don't come here with this stuff.... Have the conversation or don't. But I'm not going to listen to somebody saying I'm cheering against him. If you don't like what I have to say, refute it or ignore it.

 

[Miller Time]

Go argue with the math.

Nothing to argue with... The issue is a poor application or understanding of statistics.

If a fourth liner improves every year but still puts up fourth line production... does that make him a first liner?

No, playing 82 games while leading an NHL team in ice time at your position makes you a "first liner".

Go argue with the math

Yes, Suzuki has improved every year. That's great. He's also really streaky. One minute he looks like a legit first liner and the next he disappears. That's the story of his career so far and it's what has separated him from being considered a better player.

Not that streaky actually... Very few large stretches off the scoresheet, and quite consistent & reliable in the other areas of his game even. Your narrow lens is quite biased and ignores the full scope of how a "first liner" (or any role, for that matter) impacts a game.

The talent IS there. He's proven it. But he hasn't been able to sustain his play at the highest levels. That's the difference between a first and second line player.

What were your expectations?

Definition or expectation? Your jumping all over the place here.

A First line player? I'd describe that generally speaking as leading his team in ice time at his position (or top 3 fwd, top 2 d).

The quality of first line player is something else... Much more subjective. I tend to frame it as tiers...
Top tier = top 10-15 league wide (pts & overall impact, the latter of course being further subjective)
Mid tier = 10-25 range
Bottom tier = 20-35 range

Something more or less in those ball parks.
Perhaps an additional category at the top for generational players/ top 2-3 for an extended period or #1 of their era by a clear margin...

Suzuki was a bottom, maybe mid tier C last season... The pts drop him, but the team context that mitigated scoring can't be ignored.

I didn't expect much more of him, yet. I think he has it in him to get to the top tier, and stay there for several years... But he'll have to keep progressing... As he has!

I seem to remember us hoping he'd be a 90 point player. I felt like he had the talent to do it and last year I thought he'd finally arrived. Maybe he'll do it this year. Maybe it's his big coming out party. Nobody hopes so more than me. I watched him in the minors and loved the guy.

But I'm not going to listen to excuses about him falling off the way he did. There's no excuse for disappearing for a month like he did. Either he's dependent on Dach/CC or he can legit drive a line himself. If he's a number one, he has to start producing like one.

The thing is that he didn't "fall off". You continue to cling to a small sample size and build a flawed argument off of its tiny base. The brief stint of producing at a top 5C pace was the outlier, not the baseline. A 30-40pt jump, year over year, would've been outstanding, but that wasn't the expectation I had. I expected him to improve his production, which he did in spite of an outlier injury filled season around him.

The either/or you offer is silly.
Top scoring players in the league play with top talent AND elevate the talent around them. Suzuki isn't McDavid, but he clearly makes players around him better, and, he played with the least run support of any other C in the league.

1/2 the teams in the league scored 30 more goals than the Habs last season. Thats not because CC got injured, it was a much bigger talent depletion than that.

It's past time for him to prove that he's a number one. If he doesn't do it now, then we need to accept it and plan accordingly.

Well, now we're back to the semantics of "#1".

He's a #1nhl C. That parts math.

He's not at the standard you want him to be at. I get that.

The habs situation with an established top tier #1C... or #1D... Or #1G .... Would be different, and certainly I think we all want to see top tier talent at each of those key positions.

I didn't expect Suzuki to be there last season. It was fun to see a glimpse of what he can be, small a sample size as it was, for his own confidence, knowing he can go toe to toe with the best likely only fuelled his gire to get there.

I expect him to take another step forward this season. Injuries to himself or another league leading year of injury issues to the club could certainly dampen that, but I'd still expect to see his ppg pace to move closer to 1, if not surpass it.

If he doesn't. He'll be 25, coming off of the first season of his pro career that he didn't... While undoubtedly having further improved his impact in other areas...

I think he'll be a ppg player in his prime, and if healthy, maintain that for several years. That doesn't preclude nor prevent us adding an even better #1C should the opportunity arise or an internal asset grow into that (Dach?).

Suzuki, the player, has met or exceeded expectations I've had for him each year since we acquired him, I'm not about to pull the alarm, but you do you.

 

[Scriptor]

Okay...

And then you post this?

Go away man. Seriously.

I've simply said that he's so far not lived up to what I'd hoped he'd be. I said I hope he finds the consistency next year.

Don't come here with this stuff.... Have the conversation or don't. But I'm not going to listen to this.

You sound like you've made up your mind that Suzuki will not amount to anything more than a good second line C(which, sure, is not a bathing either, if ever that becomes the case).

The "He needs to prove otherwise this year or it's time to figure something else out" is just hedging that opinion you've formulated, in case he does breakout this year.

That's how I'm reading your multiple posts that come back to the same argument that, as good as he might be, he's just unable to play at that level consistently.

Maybe you're right, and kudos if you are, I guess.

However, I'm still rooting for the guy who has given me every inclination to believe there might still be an extra gear or two by improving every year he's played so far.

If reductive arguments like, "If a 4th liner keeps improving, but still plays like a 4th liner, does that make him a 1st liner" aren't examples of you striving to be right and not much more, in that instance, I don't know what is.

You don't have to listen to it, but I don't think I was being disrespectful at all. If I was, I genuinely do apologize. With my friends, it's much more visceral as arguments, but no disrespect is intended between us.

I just think that statements like the one I just quoted are beneath you as I think you are a good poster with sound arguments, generally and regularly.

However, it's not uncommon for us to invest too much in one position and sometimes feel like we need to defend it to our grave. At that point, just conceding a little bit in the other direction, even if we still hold out on our initial position, overall, feels like we've compromised or abandoned our initial position, when it shouldn't.

Speaking of abandon, I'll do as much with this subject as it shouldn't become cause for any animosity. After all, it's just hockey talk. Plus, re-reading the thread, I doubt anything new will come up on the subject.

Let the season start, dammit!

GO HABS GO!

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Nothing to argue with... The issue is a poor application or understanding of statistics.

It’s a direct refutation to what you said. Not an extrapolation that it’s what he’ll always be.

No, playing 82 games while leading an NHL team in ice time at your position makes you a "first liner".

Go argue with the math.

It doesn’t make you a good one. Kyle Wellwood was a first line center.

Not that streaky actually... Very few large stretches off the scoresheet, and quite consistent & reliable in the other areas of his game even. Your narrow lens is quite biased and ignores the full scope of how a "first liner" (or any role, for that matter) impacts a game.

Streaky enough.

Definition or expectation? Your jumping all over the place here.

A First line player? I'd describe that generally speaking as leading his team in ice time at his position (or top 3 fwd, top 2 d).

The quality of first line player is something else... Much more subjective. I tend to frame it as tiers...
Top tier = top 10-15 league wide (pts & overall impact, the latter of course being further subjective)
Mid tier = 10-25 range
Bottom tier = 20-35 range

Something more or less in those ball parks.
Perhaps an additional category at the top for generational players/ top 2-3 for an extended period or #1 of their era by a clear margin...

Suzuki was a bottom, maybe mid tier C last season... The pts drop him, but the team context that mitigated scoring can't be ignored.

I didn't expect much more of him, yet. I think he has it in him to get to the top tier, and stay there for several years... But he'll have to keep progressing... As he has!

He was bottom tier. Let’s not sugarcoat it. But that doesn’t mean it’ll stay that way.

Expectations? I had hoped he’d be an 80-90 point player and thought he could do it. That hasn’t panned out yet. Maybe it happens coming up. At 24, he’s in the prime of his career. So if he doesn’t show it now, I think we’ve got a good idea of the kind of player he’s going to be.

The thing is that he didn't "fall off". You continue to cling to a small sample size and build a flawed argument off of its tiny base. The brief stint of producing at a top 5C pace was the outlier, not the baseline. A 30-40pt jump, year over year, would've been outstanding, but that wasn't the expectation I had. I expected him to improve his production, which he did in spite of an outlier injury filled season around him.

The either/or you offer is silly.
Top scoring players in the league play with top talent AND elevate the talent around them. Suzuki isn't McDavid, but he clearly makes players around him better, and, he played with the least run support of any other C in the league.

1/2 the teams in the league scored 30 more goals than the Habs last season. Thats not because CC got injured, it was a much bigger talent depletion than that.

Nobody expected McDavid. And yes, he’s helped bring players along. But the first line production isn’t there. Doesn’t mean he’s not good, but it’s still something we need to pursue if he’s not the guy to be our first line guy.

Well, now we're back to the semantics of "#1".

He's a #1nhl C. That parts math.

He's not at the standard you want him to be at. I get that.

The habs situation with an established top tier #1C... or #1D... Or #1G .... Would be different, and certainly I think we all want to see top tier talent at each of those key positions.

I didn't expect Suzuki to be there last season. It was fun to see a glimpse of what he can be, small a sample size as it was, for his own confidence, knowing he can go toe to toe with the best likely only fuelled his gire to get there.

I expect him to take another step forward this season. Injuries to himself or another league leading year of injury issues to the club could certainly dampen that, but I'd still expect to see his ppg pace to move closer to 1, if not surpass it.

If he doesn't. He'll be 25, coming off of the first season of his pro career that he didn't... While undoubtedly having further improved his impact in other areas...

I think he'll be a ppg player in his prime, and if healthy, maintain that for several years. That doesn't preclude nor prevent us adding an even better #1C should the opportunity arise or an internal asset grow into that (Dach?).

Suzuki, the player, has met or exceeded expectations I've had for him each year since we acquired him, I'm not about to pull the alarm, but you do you.

If he’s a PPG player in his prime, that’s great. But he’s in his prime now. It’s past due for him to produce.

 

[Redux91]

I want LG barred from this thread the second Suzuki hits 80 points this year lol
Sorry old friend

 

[habdynasty]

He’s a great young player. Looking forward to the season.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I want LG barred from this thread the second Suzuki hits 80 points this year lol
Sorry old friend

Dude, I hope he hits 80. I do. I’ve predicted 50 goals for CC this year (regardless of center) so that should help Nick if they’re paired. Hopefully this is the year for Nick and hopefully he chips in 30 plus goals as well. 80 is doable.

And for you, I’ll honour this request. If you want me to self kick out due to lack of faith next year, I’ll do it just for you.

You can bookmark this post.

 

[Redux91]

Dude, I hope he hits 80. I do.

And for you, I’ll honour this request. If you want me to self kick out due to lack of faith next year, I’ll do it just for you.

You can bookmark this post.

A friendly wager then!
And I in NO way guarantee 80 points for Nick lol
I just feel he is absolutely more than capable, and we need that PP to be better this year and it will

But my bottom line is, others and myself sort of get the sense you think Suzuki maxes out at 66 pts, but maaaaan, if CC doesn't get hurt Nick's a 75 pt man RIGHT right now don't you think? This is beyond hypotheticals, beyond projections, just, give CC 30 more games, give Suzuki 9 more points,
And you are absolutely more than allowed to expect more than 75 pts from your #1 center, but man, in MTL? That's something you can MORE than work with

Patrice Bergeron's career high is 79 pts, but also the best defensive center in the league, so Boston obviously was happy with what they had
If Suzuki can pot a couple 80 point seasons while not being AS good defensively but not too bad when it matters, MTL will take it and run laughing wouldn't you agree

 

[Miller Time]

... But he’s in his prime now. It’s past due for him to produce.

I think that's a faulty assessment & conclusion. Time will tell.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

A friendly wager then!
And I in NO way guarantee 80 points for Nick lol
I just feel he is absolutely more than capable, and we need that PP to be better this year and it will

But my bottom line is, others and myself sort of get the sense you think Suzuki maxes out at 66 pts, but maaaaan, if CC doesn't get hurt Nick's a 75 pt man RIGHT right now don't you think? This is beyond hypotheticals, beyond projections, just, give CC 30 more games, give Suzuki 9 more points,
And you are absolutely more than allowed to expect more than 75 pts from your #1 center, but man, in MTL? That's something you can MORE than work with

Patrice Bergeron's career high is 79 pts, but also the best defensive center in the league, so Boston obviously was happy with what they had
If Suzuki can pot a couple 80 point seasons while not being AS good defensively but not too bad when it matters, MTL will take it and run laughing wouldn't you agree

It’s a very achievable number. And honestly, it’s where he needs to be if we’re really looking to him as a number one.

I hope he crushes it. If so, I’ll be more than happy to self-ban.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

CC didn't actually break any scoring records during that window. He put up 15 points in 24 games from the beginning of January to when he got injured Suzuki put of 13 points in that same time frame. Dach goes down and both players PPG goes to hell in a hand basket.

This is more about the poll LG posted about Suzuki/Caufield where he didn’t get his expected results so he’s been downplaying Nick’s contribution ever since. He can’t seem to let it go.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

This is more about the poll LG posted about Suzuki/Caufield where he didn’t get his expected results so he’s been downplaying Nick’s contribution ever since. He can’t seem to let it go.

As you’ve said here, it’s absolutely about that poll. But not the way you think. People never forgot it and now think I’ve got an agenda against the guy. People have read into my posts something that’s not there.

Again though, the numbers are the numbers. I didn’t make them up.

 

[Skip Bayless]

It’s a very achievable number. And honestly, it’s where he needs to be if we’re really looking to him as a number one.

I hope he crushes it. If so, I’ll be more than happy to self-ban.

I think captain Tsubasa hits 100 this year.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I think captain Tsubasa hits 100 this year.

I’m actually kinda hoping he gets 79 now.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

As you’ve said here, it’s absolutely about that poll. But not the way you think. People never forgot it and now think I’ve got an agenda against the guy. People have read into my posts something that’s not there.

Again though, the numbers are the numbers. I didn’t make them up.

Everyone misread your posts, or, maybe you’re not as unbiased as you think. That’s why we have biases, we aren’t able to recognize them ourselves. You are no different.

The numbers have been arbitrarily chosen from a sample size of your choosing in order try to prove your point. Others have posted the numbers, but your pinky blinders won’t let you see anything other than your meaningless sample.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Everyone misread your posts, or, maybe you’re not as unbiased as you think. That’s why we have biases, we aren’t able to recognize them ourselves. You are no different.

Nah.

I’d love the guy to hit 80 plus points. I expected it last year and he started right on queue. Then the drop off happened.

I’ve lost confidence that he’s our number one. That’s based on the fact that he’s been inconsistent in year scoring. Yes, his totals have improved every year but not to where I had thought they’d be. He’s been streaky and I don’t think it’s going to change. But I’d be happy to be wrong and very well could be.

We’ll see though. 80 points is attainable and I hope he gets to… 79.

The numbers have been arbitrarily chosen from a sample size of your choosing in order try to prove your point. Others have posted the numbers, but your pinky blinders won’t let you see anything other than your meaningless sample.

Sorry but no.

People (including yourself) made false claims and I refuted them with the numbers. And they certainly aren’t arbitrary, it goes straight to the heart of what was being argued. That’s all there is to it.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Nah.

I’d love the guy to hit 80 plus points. I expected it last year and he started right on queue. Then the drop off happened.

I’ve lost confidence that he’s our number one. That’s based on the fact that he’s been inconsistent in year scoring. Yes, his totals have improved every year but not to where I had thought they’d be. He’s been streaky and I don’t think it’s going to change. But I’d be happy to be wrong and very well could be.

We’ll see though. 80 points is attainable and I hope he gets to… 79.

Sorry but no.

People (including yourself) made false claims and I refuted them with the numbers. That’s all there is to it.

Nope and nope.