NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[Hockey Outsider]

Most post-1945 .800+ GPG seasons happened during 1980-1994. They didn’t all win the Hart because they all scored .800 at the same time, often losing to Gretzky and Lemieux. Or they didn’t score 50 goals. Or it had been done the year or two before by someone else, diminishing the specialness. Or their teams didn’t win enough.

Completely different for Matthews. He’s the first to do it since Mario Lemieux. The passage of time makes it historical. And it’s not just his .800+ GPG that makes him Hart worthy. It’s everything put together. His 50 in 50. His 60 in 73. Both of which also haven’t been done since Mario Lemieux. His team’s regular season success. His 106 points in 73 games. His elite defense. Leading the league in goals, goals per game, even strength goals, shots, takeaways. And then add in the rarity of .800+ GPG. As I said, in terms of rarity, that’s like scoring at a 144 point pace.

You can pick any one thing apart, sure. But in totality, and given his competition, that’s probably a Hart winner in 2022, and no amount of “well, the Art Ross winner usually wins 2/3 times” or “historically, if x then y” will account for Matthews’ historical season.

Taking everything into account, watching Matthews hit one historical milestone after another, my guess is he locked up the Hart the moment that puck went in the net for the 60th time. McDavid is probably his closest competitor, and I’d imagine nothing McDavid does from now until Friday will move the needle. The season is essentially over.

I don't think we're disagreeing. Matthews obviously has a good case for the Hart this year (he's one of several players with a valid case). I think some of the other points you mentioned (first 60 goal season in a decade, first "50 in 50" since Lemieux) are better arguments than 0.80 GPG (since historically 0.80 GPG hasn't translated into Hart success unless the player also won the Art Ross).

 

[TheDoldrums]

It’s nice that he cares. Now if only he allowed fewer goals while he was on the ice.

Is this a bit? You guys understand that goalies matter and that one of 5 skaters on the ice isn't solely responsible for every goal against, right?

 

[Busher]

A. Stamkos didn't make the playoffs.
B. Crosby missed 60 games which greatly helped malkin in the Hart race
C. 60 in 73>60 in 82
D. 50 in 50
E. Stamkos didn't score 100 while papi is well over
F. Matthews leads the league in takeaways
G. He plays for the biggest market in hockey

E

Well said. 60 goals is a big deal in today’s NHL. You’d have to basically do what Stamkos did NOT to win a Hart with 60 goals (miss playoffs, miss 100 points, etc).

Not only has 60 goals ever been done 40 times in history, 37 of those 40 times was during 1970-1996. So just 3 times since. Look at how many times 60 goals was scored by decade:

1970s - 8
1980s - 19
1990s - 10
2000s - 1
2010s - 1
2020s - 1

Scoring 60 goals has basically become obsolete in today’s NHL. When you score 60 and also get 100 points, lead your team to 113 team points, score 50 in 50, and score at a .800+ GPG pace, such paces not having been done since Mario Lemieux, and do it all in just 73 games, AND play great defense as a top defensive center, then how do you not give him the Hart? Matthews in 2022 is as close to Sergei Fedorov in 1994 as you’ll ever get in a Hart candidate.

Other players are having great seasons, but all of these historic goal scoring accolades would be too much to overcome.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Yes. The Leafs have a strong D this year and their goaltending has been at least as good as the Oilers.

If only it were a 'yes' 'no' question.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Is this a bit? You guys understand that goalies matter and that one of 5 skaters on the ice isn't solely responsible for every goal against, right?

Of course I understand. How would you compare the Leafs D and goaltending to the Oilers?
Matthews bears part of the responsibility for his line allowing goals against.
I mean actually preventing goals is one piece of evidence. Not the whole story. But then neither are the stats like giveaways and takeaways and blocked shots that regularly get trotted out in his favour.

 

[Busher]

I don't think we're disagreeing. Matthews obviously has a good case for the Hart this year (he's one of several players with a valid case). I think some of the other points you mentioned (first 60 goal season in a decade, first "50 in 50" since Lemieux) are better arguments than 0.80 GPG (since historically 0.80 GPG hasn't translated into Hart success unless the player also won the Art Ross).

I agree some arguments are better than others. Heck, I just realized 0.80 GPG yesterday myself. It’s not going to be as celebrated, but it’s another indication of how rare a season he’s having in the context of hockey history. People can take what they like from the neat info.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Of course I understand. How would you compare the Leafs D and goaltending to the Oilers?
Matthews bears part of the responsibility for his line allowing goals against.

The Oilers have had the 20th best SV% 5v5.

The Leafs have had the 28th best SV% 5v5.

Leafs have had bottom 5 goaltending and it's been even worse with Matthews on the ice. So yeah I think that's far more responsible.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

The Oilers have had the 20th best SV% 5v5.

The Leafs have had the 28th best SV% 5v5.

So pretty close then. Sounds like both teams need to do a better job defensively helping their goalies.
And interesting that the goaltending has been worse with Matthews on the ice. You’d have to do a deeper dive into the stats to determine why that is over such a large sample size. Seems unlikely to be just bad luck.

 

[J bo Jeans]

Sure he would've. Because there are OTHER players on the team, like D-men and a Goalie. And he's also in a really good Division, perhaps unlike McDavid.

But for the record, I'm not one of the ones proclaiming that Matthews is better, or that he's the only one who deserves the Hart. McDavid could easily win it too(or Josi) and I'd be fine with that.

I'm just here to slap down dumb comments. So............"hi".

Yes just like if Mcdavids linemates would have shot at their career averages this season Mcdavid would have had 18 more points.

 

[Darren McCord]

Yes just like if Mcdavids linemates would have shot at their career averages this season Mcdavid would have had 18 more points.

Meanwhile Kane is shooting 5% above his career avg lol

 

[duul]

Mcdavid has 10 PPG (44 PP points) and 12 EN points (7 goals)

Matthews has 16 PPG (29 PP points) and 3 EN points (all goals)

Mcdavid has 27 goals at even strength and he has 38 assists (without the EN)

Matthews has 41 goals at even strength and 33 assists at even strength. (Without the EN)

I left out defensive stats because it isn’t close at all.

This is with Matthews playing 6 less games.

Matthews>Mcdavid

Have you bothered to compare their linemates at 5v5?

 

[Holymakinaw]

Yes just like if Mcdavids linemates would have shot at their career averages this season Mcdavid would have had 18 more points.

And if my sister had made enough money babysitting back in the 80's, she could've afforded to get the operation & become my brother.

 

[syz]

NHLPA Player Poll 2021-22 | NHLPA.com

www.nhlpa.com

Interesting that the players have McDavid on a list with Crosby, Barkov, Bergeron, and Kopitar. Maybe they haven't heard enough John Tortorella interviews.

 

[TheDoldrums]

So pretty close then. Sounds like both teams need to do a better job defensively helping their goalies.
And interesting that the goaltending has been worse with Matthews on the ice. You’d have to do a deeper dive into the stats to determine why that is over such a large sample size. Seems unlikely to be just bad luck.

luckily much smarter people long ago realized that players have very little control over their on-ice SV%

Hockey Talk: On player control over save percentage

Welcome back to our semi-regular segment where I will touch on a few trending topics in hockey statistics in a less mathematical and more discussion-based format. This week we will explore the deba…

hockey-graphs.com

Defencemen and their impact on team save percentage - TSN.ca

Travis Hamonic of the New York Islanders has been a regular defender in the NHL for years now. Are we confident that he has a positive or negative impact on his goaltenders’ save percentage? As Travis Yost writes, there is zero statistical evidence that a player can truly impact his team’s save...

www.tsn.ca

the fact that you think one season of a player is a "such a large sample size" for this sort of thing is kind of funny though.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

luckily much smarter people long ago concluded that players have very little control over their on-ice SV%

Hockey Talk: On player control over save percentage

Welcome back to our semi-regular segment where I will touch on a few trending topics in hockey statistics in a less mathematical and more discussion-based format. This week we will explore the deba…

hockey-graphs.com

Defencemen and their impact on team save percentage - TSN.ca

Travis Hamonic of the New York Islanders has been a regular defender in the NHL for years now. Are we confident that he has a positive or negative impact on his goaltenders’ save percentage? As Travis Yost writes, there is zero statistical evidence that a player can truly impact his team’s save...

www.tsn.ca

the fact that you think one season of a player is a "large sample size" for this sort of research is kind of funny though.

As I said you’d have to look deeper into it. Is the Matthews line giving up more high danger chances. It seems unlikely it’s just bad luck given the large sample size. Save percentage as a stat on its own is pretty useless unless you know the quality of chances given up.
I do agree that plus/minus comparisons across different teams are pretty much meaningless but within a team I think they still have some value. Like all stats though they are just one piece of evidence.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

luckily much smarter people long ago realized that players have very little control over their on-ice SV%

Hockey Talk: On player control over save percentage

Welcome back to our semi-regular segment where I will touch on a few trending topics in hockey statistics in a less mathematical and more discussion-based format. This week we will explore the deba…

hockey-graphs.com

Defencemen and their impact on team save percentage - TSN.ca

Travis Hamonic of the New York Islanders has been a regular defender in the NHL for years now. Are we confident that he has a positive or negative impact on his goaltenders’ save percentage? As Travis Yost writes, there is zero statistical evidence that a player can truly impact his team’s save...

www.tsn.ca

the fact that you think one season of a player is a "such a large sample size" for this sort of thing is kind of funny though.

Found this article published 8 weeks ago which confirmed my suspicions that it’s not just bad luck or the save percentage. His line gives up a lot of high danger chances, which partly explains why he’s on the ice for so many goals against.

‘The key area of Matthews’ defensive game needing the most improvement, especially given that once again Patrice Bergeron tops the league in this statistic is the number of high-danger chances given up per 60 minutes (HDCA/60). Matthews is a lowly 103rd on the list, expecting to give up 9.92 HDCA/60.’

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

It's not my opinion, champ. It's how the NHL recognizes it. The NHL does not, and presumably never will, recognize Matthews as scoring 50 goals in 50 games this season.

Also, the Hart isn't awarded for 50 games played. It means, in the other 32 games he could have contributed to (he will end up appearing in 23 or 24 of them), Matthews scored 10 goals.

What's funny about this is when you realize his "worst" stretch of the season tops the vast majority of the league.

LOL

 

[Canovin]

60 goals is nice but when your team is still winning games while you're injured/suspended. That's not MVP

 

[Namikaze Minato]

60 goals is nice but when your team is still winning games while you're injured/suspended. That's not MVP

So no goalie can ever be an MVP? Or does that mean that the team must lose every game that he sits on the bench?

 

[Canovin]

So no goalie can ever be an MVP? Or does that mean that the team must lose every game that he sits on the bench?

Think about the players ahead of Matthews. McDavid, Gaudreau, Josi, Drai. Anyone one of those players missing games, their teams won't be winning game.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Think about the players ahead of Matthews. McDavid, Gaudreau, Josi, Drai. Anyone one of those playing missing games, their teams won't be winning game.

You answered a question that I didn't ask.

 

[jigglysquishy]

So no goalie can ever be an MVP? Or does that mean that the team must lose every game that he sits on the bench?

Only 4 times has a goalie won the Hart since 1962, all in a dead puck era.

So goalies are kind of excluded by default.

 

[TopShelfYzerman]

You answered a question that I didn't ask.

but is still relevant

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Only 4 times has a goalie won the Hart since 1962, all in a dead puck era.

So goalies are kind of excluded by default.

Think that's based on games played, lack of respect for the position vs its counterparts or something else?

 

[Namikaze Minato]

but is still relevant

Relevant to goalies and the Hart? He answered with literally everything but what I asked about.