NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[Busher]

We’ll see what happens for sure. I’ll back off because I’m talking to someone with some sense haha (not thinking Matthews is going to automatically notch 60 year in and year out).

Hopefully the level of scoring we saw this season is the baseline and what we can expect to see for awhile now.

I’m with you. I’d love to see more 50 and 60 goal scorers. Remains to be seen, of course. But would be great to see.

 

[Video Nasty]

With that logic, Matthews is more likely to hit 70 than others hitting 60.

He has the capability. I’d love to see it happen. We’ll have to see what happens and keep our fingers crossed that the NHL doesn’t get obsessed with lower scoring again.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Turns out scoring at a .800+ goals per game pace has only been done 33 times since 1945, by just 16 players. That’s averaging 8 goals every 10 games.

If it felt like Matthews was scoring every game, that’s because he joined the club this year. (Then again, 50 in 50 would’ve already told you he was averaging a goal a game).

Bobby Hull
Phil Esposito
Mike Bossy
Charlie Simmer
Wayne Gretzky
Lanny McDonald
Jari Kurri
Mario Lemieux
Steve Yzerman
Bernie Nicholls
Brett Hull
Pat Lafontaine
Teemu Selanne
Alex Mogilny
Cam Neely
Auston Matthews

That’s it. No Ovechkin, no Stamkos. And since 1994, only Mario Lemieux and Auston Matthews have scored at a .800+ goals per game pace. This is historic.

The points per game comparison would be 1.76 PPG, having been done 33 times since 1945. In terms of rarity, Matthews’ goals per game pace this year is equivalent to scoring at a 144 point pace over a full season.

Last year, McDavid had the historic season and rightfully won the Hart. This year, it’s only Matthews having the historic season.

From WWII to 2021, there have been 33 times a player scored 0.8 GPG (with a minimum of 40 games played). Ten of those players won the Hart. That sounds promising, but nine of them also won the Art Ross (Hull 1966, Esposito 1974, Gretzky in each of 1982, 1983, 1984 and 1985, Lemieux in 1988, 1993 and 1996). The only player who scored 0.8 GPG and won the Hart, without winning the Art Ross, was Brett Hull, who in 1991 finished 2nd in scoring (16 pts ahead of 3rd place).

There have been 9 instances where a player scored 0.8 GPG, and finished between 3rd and 5th in scoring (which is what Matthews is going to do). Not one of them won the Hart. In fact, several of them weren't even finalists.

I appreciate Matthews' goal-scoring this year. It's obviously one of the best goal-scoring performances of the 21st century. It would have been greater still, had he not missed so many games. But over the past 40 years, the Hart correlates much more strongly with overall point production than goals (or assists) in isolation.

And although I agree that Matthews is one of only two players since 1994 to score 0.8 GPG, he's not the only player doing historically significant things this year. Roman Josi is having the highest-scoring season from a defenseman dating back to 1993 (and he's far better defensively than Phil Housley, the last blueliner to top his 93 points). Johnny Gaudreau is the first forward since Wayne Gretzky in 1987 to finish a year +60 (and he's one of two forwards going back to 1994, the other being Jagr, to reach 88 ES points). These are all cherry-picked stats, but none are any less arbitrary than "0.80 GPG, going back to 1994, ignoring Lemieux".

I'm not saying that Matthews can't or won't win the Hart. Just that this particular argument doesn't really tell us anything.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Yeah... but of the past 8 Hart winners, ZERO led the NHL in goals.

To add to that, going back to 1968 (when the NHL doubled in size):

54 players have led the league in points (tied or outright). 33 of them won the Hart trophy. It's the single best predictor of who wins that award.

I think this is actually more telling - 48 of those 54 players were Hart trophy finalists. (Four of those six exceptions played on non playoff teams).

60 players have led the league in goals (tied or outright), going back to 1968. Only 15 of them won the Hart trophy (which is less than half the rate as the leading scorer). And 11 of those 15 players were, in fact, the leading scorer.

29 times the leading goal-scoring was a Hart trophy finalist. The leading scorer has been a Hart finalist 89% of the time, the leading goal-scorer has been a Hart finalist 48% of the time. It's obvious that Hart voting has been more strongly influenced by points (rather than goals or assists in isolation).

To be clear, I'm not saying that Matthews can't win, or shouldn't win. But I think it's important to highlight that Hart voting has been more strongly influenced by points (rather than goals or assists in isolation).

 

[Busher]

From WWII to 2021, there have been 33 times a player scored 0.8 GPG (with a minimum of 40 games played). Ten of those players won the Hart. That sounds promising, but nine of them also won the Art Ross (Hull 1966, Esposito 1974, Gretzky in each of 1982, 1983, 1984 and 1985, Lemieux in 1988, 1993 and 1996). The only player who scored 0.8 GPG and won the Hart, without winning the Art Ross, was Brett Hull, who in 1991 finished 2nd in scoring (16 pts ahead of 3rd place).

There have been 9 instances where a player scored 0.8 GPG, and finished between 3rd and 5th in scoring (which is what Matthews is going to do). Not one of them won the Hart. In fact, several of them weren't even finalists.

I appreciate Matthews' goal-scoring this year. It's obviously one of the best goal-scoring performances of the 21st century. It would have been greater still, had he not missed so many games. But over the past 40 years, the Hart correlates much more strongly with overall point production than goals (or assists) in isolation.

And although I agree that Matthews is one of only two players since 1994 to score 0.8 GPG, he's not the only player doing historically significant things this year. Roman Josi is having the highest-scoring season from a defenseman dating back to 1993 (and he's far better defensively than Phil Housley, the last blueliner to top his 93 points). Johnny Gaudreau is the first forward since Wayne Gretzky in 1987 to finish a year +60 (and he's one of two forwards going back to 1994, the other being Jagr, to reach 88 ES points). These are all cherry-picked stats, but none are any less arbitrary than "0.80 GPG, going back to 1994, ignoring Lemieux".

I'm not saying that Matthews can't or won't win the Hart. Just that this particular argument doesn't really tell us anything.

Most post-1945 .800+ GPG seasons happened during 1980-1994. They didn’t all win the Hart because they all scored .800 at the same time, often losing to Gretzky and Lemieux. Or they didn’t score 50 goals. Or it had been done the year or two before by someone else, diminishing the specialness. Or their teams didn’t win enough.

Completely different for Matthews. He’s the first to do it since Mario Lemieux. The passage of time makes it historical. And it’s not just his .800+ GPG that makes him Hart worthy. It’s everything put together. His 50 in 50. His 60 in 73. Both of which also haven’t been done since Mario Lemieux. His team’s regular season success. His 106 points in 73 games. His elite defense. Leading the league in goals, goals per game, even strength goals, shots, takeaways. And then add in the rarity of .800+ GPG. As I said, in terms of rarity, that’s like scoring at a 144 point pace.

You can pick any one thing apart, sure. But in totality, and given his competition, that’s probably a Hart winner in 2022, and no amount of “well, the Art Ross winner usually wins 2/3 times” or “historically, if x then y” will account for Matthews’ historical season.

Taking everything into account, watching Matthews hit one historical milestone after another, my guess is he locked up the Hart the moment that puck went in the net for the 60th time. McDavid is probably his closest competitor, and I’d imagine nothing McDavid does from now until Friday will move the needle. The season is essentially over.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

One guy is +20 (3rd on his team) on a team that sit at +59
The other is +27 (1st) on a team that is +36

Btw Austin is -3 playing away from Mitch, Marner is the real TML Mvp...

 

[Eternal Leaf]

I don't mind if McDavid or someone else wins it.

It's a very close race between multiple contenders.

I'm not sure why people are getting wound up by the idea of Matthews winning it. He's a legitimate contender and a worthy winner if he gets the votes.

A 60-goal scorer in 73 games with 50 in 50 and 100+ points is always going to be rated as a leading Hart contender. The uniqueness of the feat and the love for goalscorers is nothing new or specific to Toronto.

Ovechkin and Stamkos were also followed with the same passion (by the same Toronto media) during their 60+ goal-scoring seasons. Stammer was unlucky his team missed the playoffs and Malkin put up a legendary performance without Crosby. Even despite missing the playoffs which is a major no-no in a Hart race, he still finished second.

 

[Johnnybegood13]

Writers are a funny bunch and 75% wont vote honestly, the ones who want Matthews to win will put McDavid 5th and vice-versa, this could be a year the player with the most 2nd place votes swoops in and takes it.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Matthews season is only rare and elusive in the echo chamber that is the Toronto media and fanbase. Pavel Bure scored 58 in 74 games in 1999-2000, a much lower scoring year, and finished only 2 points off the Art Ross leader, and 14 goals more than the next highest scorer. He was also by far the best player on his team. And yet I don't see any Toronto fans saying that season was better than Matthews. Bure finished 3rd in Hart voting.

Matthews' season is awesome, but it isn't some objective fact that he should win the Hart because he scored 60 goals. It would be nice it people actually watched hockey games to determine the winner of the Hart trophy, rather than trying to craft narratives around specific stats that are only selectively important. Personally I think Mathews will win the Hart trophy, but I don't understand how anyone could watch Edmonton and Toronto play and come to the conclusion that Matthews is more important to his team than McDavid is to his. They literally play the guy until he is dead tired because they have to in order to be competitive. How some people claim that is to his detriment regarding the Hart trophy is beyond me.

I won't comment specifically on 99-00 but it's a little funny hearing "if people actually watched the hockey games" along with all the Bure accolades. Again, I won't speak for that specific year but in general Bure was the guy you look up in the dictionary for "cherry picker". I wasn't even a fan of his team and remember being enfuriated watching him leave his team outmanned and pinned in their zone while he floated around centre waiting for breakaway passes.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

If scoring stays the same or ticks up higher over the next few seasons, what Matthews has done will no longer be as rare as it was. You mentioned in another post that you don’t think anyone else is even capable of 60 in 82.

Drai has 55 in 79.

Some guy named Kreider (I’m joking) has 52.

Ovechkin is 36 and has 50 in 77.

With a few more games played by everyone in the top 10 for goals, 9 of them would have a shot at 50.

Pass first McDavid who averages an assist per game has 44. Capability? You don’t think if he looked for his shot more, he would pot 60 the way the league is going?

How can you think that 60 goals is out of reach for anyone but Matthews?

He had a special season. It’s been awesome to see the feats he has accomplished and the league in general see a boost to scoring that we haven’t seen in 25+ years.

But when you combine his talent with being in the right circumstance, this is what you get. To sweep others under the rug doesn’t seem right.

As someone pointed out, using your technique, someone else is then shooting for 70+ and we are right back to the same conversation, about how rare it is for someone to ever hit 70.

I'm not sure people yet get how wide the gap is/has been. If you only look at raw numbers, it seems close. If you look at time played, the gap is pretty large. Obviously you have to play the time to get the numbers but in this world where you are giving other players more games, it helps to know they are already getting more "games" and still struggling to finish within 10 - 20% of Matthews. So likewise, one would expect him to go into more rarified air. Also, you'd have to give everyone in the past "a few more games" in which case you'd probably see more people do better as well.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Congrats on your.... 1 example?

Lmao, try and follow what was going on, instead of jumping in the middle of it.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

You can't compare 55 goals in 79 games to 60 in 73

 

[LivingRentFree]

You can't compare 55 goals in 79 games to 60 in 73

But they sure will try!

I like how they’re comparing Hull and Bure to Matthews, when neither one of those two ever played a single iota of defence.

 

[authentic]

You can't compare 55 goals in 79 games to 60 in 73

HF finds a way

 

[authentic]

In 1980-81, when Bossy and (almost) Charlie Simmer scored 50-in-50 (the real 50-in-50, not the game-cherry-picking one), a lot of people said, "Wow, this is historic! We'll never see this again in our lifetimes!"

Then, 11 months later, Gretzky scored 50 in 39, and 92 in a season. Two years later, he scored 87 in 74 games. A year later, Gretzky scored 50 in 49 and Kurri 50 in 51. Four years later, Lemieux scored 85. Two years later, Hull scored 86.

If scoring rates continue, I'd say it's very likely we'll see another 60-goal scorer in the next few years. Hell, if Draisaitl played the wing with McDavid instead of being a playmaking center, he'd have well over 60 right now...

"The real 50 in 50" gotta love it

Matthews is one of 13 players in NHL history who have scored 50 goals in 50 games at any point in a season, and one of 9 who had 50 in 49 or 51 in 50. The only player who did it in a very slightly lower scoring league, by a difference of .07 last I checked, was Cam Neely. Just continue telling yourself that it isn't as impressive as those ones.

 

[Straight Fire]

Anyone "in the conversation" should take honor in that, as a real accomplishment this year.

There is 1 name that is a gimme for top 3 nominations and it's Matthews. The 2nd is close in McDavid. The 3rd spot could win but is a nightmare to decide on (and there's no wrong answer): Huberdeau or Gaudreau (either could be argued right alongside Matthews and McDavid). Then there's at least 2 other names that "are right there" in Josi and Shesterkin (fortunately/unfortunately they both have trophies to win that are special to their positions). Then you've got a few other names that people bring up who for one reason or another should be brought up (Miller in Vancouver, Stamkos in TB, Makar in Colorado for examples) - these last 3 would probably cause a press person to take heat for voting on, but them "being in the conversation" isn't wrong.

Like I said, anyone "being in the conversation" should take honor in that and it's like their wiki write-up for generations to come should make note of the great season they had.

 

[The Panther]

"The real 50 in 50" gotta love it

Matthews is one of 13 players in NHL history who have scored 50 goals in 50 games at any point in a season, and one of 9 who had 50 in 49 or 51 in 50. The only player who did it in a very slightly lower scoring league, by a difference of .07 last I checked, was Cam Neely. Just continue telling yourself that it isn't as impressive as those ones.

I haven't written anything whatsoever about how impressive or not Matthews' season is. Thus, as usual, I'm clueless as to what point you think you're making.

 

[authentic]

I haven't written anything whatsoever about how impressive or not Matthews' season is. Thus, as usual, I'm clueless as to what point you think you're making.

Whatever floats your boat there champ.

"(the real 50-in-50, not the game-cherry-picking one)"

Are you for real or what lol

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

But they sure will try!

I like how they’re comparing Hull and Bure to Matthews, when neither one of those two ever played a single iota of defence.

.....or the centre position.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Anyone "in the conversation" should take honor in that, as a real accomplishment this year.

Like I said, anyone "being in the conversation" should take honor in that and it's like their wiki write-up for generations to come should make note of the great season they had.

Yup. There really isn't a bad choice. Has there ever been a closer race with so many in the running?

 

[The Panther]

Whatever floats your boat there champ.

"(the real 50-in-50, not the game-cherry-picking one)"

Are you for real or what lol

It's not my opinion, champ. It's how the NHL recognizes it. The NHL does not, and presumably never will, recognize Matthews as scoring 50 goals in 50 games this season.

Also, the Hart isn't awarded for 50 games played. It means, in the other 32 games he could have contributed to (he will end up appearing in 23 or 24 of them), Matthews scored 10 goals.

 

[LivingRentFree]

Mcdavid has 10 PPG (44 PP points) and 12 EN points (7 goals)

Matthews has 16 PPG (29 PP points) and 3 EN points (all goals)

Mcdavid has 27 goals at even strength and he has 38 assists (without the EN)

Matthews has 41 goals at even strength and 33 assists at even strength. (Without the EN)

I left out defensive stats because it isn’t close at all.

This is with Matthews playing 6 less games.

Matthews>Mcdavid

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

But they sure will try!

I like how they’re comparing Hull and Bure to Matthews, when neither one of those two ever played a single iota of defence.

Yup. Bure was a great player. But he was also a one dimensional shooting winger. Brett Hull another great pure shooter. The next time a strong two center scores 60 goals (in 73 gp) is 58% in the dot, leads the league in takeaways will be along time

 

[Straight Fire]

Yup. There really isn't a bad choice. Has there ever been a closer race with so many in the running?

I don't recall a season like this ever and I'm an old timer (age wise lol).

 

[Straight Fire]

Just out of curiosity, what (if any) outside of the special point total Huberdeau has this season marks him as a Hart finalist? His might be the name that needs to drop out of the top 3, unfortunately.

When I think Matthews, there's the obvious 60 goals, but then the fact that number occured in 73 games (with the tally through 50 games over 2 seasons being high). Equally impressive is that he shattered the goal record for an original 6 franchise. And broke 100 pts.

When it comes to McDavid, a plus 40 goal season and leading the league in the Art Ross race with a performance that surpasses Crosby's best point total.

Finally, marking Gaudreau's special season are a +63 (currently, will likely go up even), which rivals epic years from Forsberg (2003 I believe) but with even more points and a better +/- than "Peter the Great" to his credit. And then his even strength points which one has to go back to the 90s (or further now) to find something comparable (don't have the latest stats on that). Is 3rd in Art Ross points (currently only 9 pts back of the leader McDavid). Tied for 3rd in game-winning goals (at last check with 9). High on the primary assist leader board. And will likely break 40 goals himself (sitting at 39 currently with 2 games left).

What makes Huberdeau's season extra special outside of sitting 2nd in the Art Ross race (a phenomenal year to be sure).