NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[Apotheosis]

McDavid had nearly 40 more points than Matthews last year in the same division. And McDavid has had a better year this year (again, the best in analytics era) in terms of driving play but has had by far the unluckiest season of his career and he is still outscoring everyone comfortably. How is that for data?

So you're okay with using the analytics argument but the same analytics have Matthews as a top 5 defensive forward in the league by expected goal metrics and possession metrics but that does not suit your argument, does it?

 

[PensandCaps]

Definitely not Huberdeau.

Gaudreau, Kaprizov, Matthews, Mcdavid, even Drai have had more impressive seasons.

 

[Llamamoto]

So you're okay with using the analytics argument but the same analytics have Matthews as a top 5 defensive forward in the league by expected goal metrics and possession metrics but that does not suit your argument, does it?

If you want to use expected stats McDavid just had the biggest impact on xG% since they started recording the stat, which combines both xGF and xGA.

 

[Leafsfan74]

The myth of the North being weaker or higher scoring was debunked plenty of times last season. It just happened to be the division with a lot of the elite talent in the league.

Also why cut off the GAA conveniently at 7? 8, 9, 10, and 11 are all West teams. 5 of the 6th worst are East teams. It's easy to just take a snippet and make it a slanted narrative.

You're cherry picking metrics here.

Go compare 120 point seasons to 60 goal scorers in the history of the game, let alone while having being injured during the season and missing six games. You will be in the most rare of players in the entire history of the game. The elite of the elite, a handful of players whose names are all well known.

This season the debate isn't nearly as close as some want it to be. I get that fans and even players have some resentment to the big media machine behind the Leafs, they dislike the popularity just as some in the NBA dislike the Lakers draw or Yankees in the MLB.

I've watched a hell of a lot of hockey in my life, more than most current NHL players I'm sure. What McDavid is doing in impressive, what Matthews is doing is historically elusive in the NHL in any era on both the offensive and defensive side.

Put in a full season between the two and the gap between Matthews rarity to McDavids accomplishment is even more profound.

 

[PensandCaps]

Lol at people using the Stamkos 2011-12 season as a comparable. The Lightning went 38-36-8 to miss the playoffs. Everyone knows you can’t win the Hart if you miss the playoffs so that argument is moot since the Leafs will finish as a top 4-5 team this season.

But but but an 8 game sample size says the Leafs would be just as good without him. Lol gtfo haters

Don't really care about the team making the playoffs or not when it comes to MVP. Malkin was far and away the best player that year.

 

[authentic]

If you want to use expected stats McDavid just had the biggest impact on xG% since they started recording the stat, which combines both xGF and xGA.

Matthews ranks higher here. The only players this season who rank higher with at least half the season played are Bergeron and Marchand.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Don't really care about the team making the playoffs or not when it comes to MVP. Malkin was far and away the best player that year.

I think making the playoff is an important consideration for this award. If there is clearly a guy head and shoulder above others who doesn't make the playoffs, maybe, but if it's even remotely close, leading a team to the playoffs is a big deal.

It's why in their prime, I would choose Crosby over any other current player. He took a weak team when he joined them and lead them to four finals and three Cups (plus probably saved the franchise). I am glad that Matthews looks at him as a standard too because it tells me he realizes the value in winning.

Whether it's a Jordan, Brady or Jeter, you take away their championships and they have half the legacy they have earned.

Crosby is still the present day standard in that regard. Being a dominant individual player AND leading a team to multiple rings.

 

[Dust]

Go compare 120 point seasons to 60 goal scorers in the history of the game, let alone while having being injured during the season and missing six games. You will be in the most rare of players in the entire history of the game. The elite of the elite, a handful of players whose names are all well known.

This season the debate isn't nearly as close as some want it to be. I get that fans and even players have some resentment to the big media machine behind the Leafs, they dislike the popularity just as some in the NBA dislike the Lakers draw or Yankees in the MLB.

I've watched a hell of a lot of hockey in my life, more than most current NHL players I'm sure. What McDavid is doing in impressive, what Matthews is doing is historically elusive in the NHL in any era on both the offensive and defensive side.

Put in a full season between the two and the gap between Matthews rarity to McDavids accomplishment is even more profound.

I simply pointed out the flaw in your metrics. I never made any argument that what Matthews was doing isn't impressive. Ultimately none of us really have any idea if the voters lean more towards goals or total points.

I feel like the Hart could go to Shesty, Josi, Gaudreau, Huberdeau, Matthews, or McDavid and honestly I wouldn't be upset, they're all deserving in one way or another.

 

[Llamamoto]

Matthews ranks higher here. The only players this season who rank higher with at least half the season played are Bergeron and Marchand.

I'm talking isolated impact, which takes into account more than just xGF/xGA.

His RAPM xGF/60 is 0.646, which is significantly higher than any other player since they started recording that stat.

 

[authentic]

I'm talking isolated impact, which takes into account more than just xGF/xGA.

His RAPM xGF/60 is 0.646, which is significantly higher than any other player since they started recording that stat.

That doesn’t make it the best advanced stat season in the cap era, considering Matthews is ahead in nearly everything else.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

So you are throwing away the results cause a guy with 9 Rocket Richard trophies got double the votes that a guy who has 1 going on 2 has......yeah okay that makes sense.

By that logic I will take Teemu Selanne. I mean sure his numbers today aren't nearly as good but sometime in the past they were so he's obviously the choice today.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

These votes seem to be based more on reputation so yes you read that correctly.

You didn't seem to mind putting value in a player's opinion when Barkov made that quote about Matthews.

 

[Llamamoto]

That doesn’t make it the best advanced stat season in the cap era, considering Matthews is ahead in nearly everything else.

It also takes into account pp metrics and actual GF/GA, which might tip things in McDavid's favour. I'm not generally a fan of single stats that combine a bunch of different factors, but this seems to do a pretty good job of combining expected goals, actual goals, and shooting talent.

 

[PensandCaps]

I think making the playoff is an important consideration for this award. If there is clearly a guy head and shoulder above others who doesn't make the playoffs, maybe, but if it's even remotely close, leading a team to the playoffs is a big deal.

It's why in their prime, I would choose Crosby over any other current player. He took a weak team when he joined them and lead them to four finals and three Cups (plus probably saved the franchise). I am glad that Matthews looks at him as a standard too because it tells me he realizes the value in winning.

Whether it's a Jordan, Brady or Jeter, you take away their championships and they have half the legacy they have earned.

Crosby is still the present day standard in that regard. Being a dominant individual player AND leading a team to multiple rings.

Crosby didn't do it himself. He had a top 3 player in the NHL on his team, the best 3C in the game, An Elite Dman.

A player can't control how good the rest of his team is or isn't. There's a reason why the Pens were awful with Sid in his rookie year and then suddenly an elite team the next. Staal and Geno.


Same goes with Matthews, Came into the league with a pretty good core, Got Tavares a few years later.

 

[authentic]

It also takes into account pp metrics and actual GF/GA, which might tip things in McDavid's favour. I'm not generally a fan of single stats that combine a bunch of different factors, but this seems to do a pretty good job of combining expected goals, actual goals, and shooting talent.

Yes it’s the best in that particular metric but every other model that shows Matthews to be ahead is somehow a bunch of crap according to most of HF lol

Anyway they are both better than every other player this season so we’ll see who comes out ahead when it matters, should be fun to watch.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Crosby didn't do it himself. He had a top 3 player in the NHL on his team, the best 3C in the game, An Elite Dman.

A player can't control how good the rest of his team is or isn't. There's a reason why the Pens were awful with Sid in his rookie year and then suddenly an elite team the next. Staal and Geno.


Same goes with Matthews, Came into the league with a pretty good core, Got Tavares a few years later.

We see the Hart differently then. I believe for MVP the question is, who is a non-playoff teams best player most "valuable" to? Himself? If the team isn't winning than it's moot IMO.

If we base MVP in other ways it would really only represent "the player in the league who draws the most fans to his teams home games". In my opinion, what is valuable must equate to team success.

 

[The Panther]

The more you dig into the data, the more clear it is. That's not a knock on McDavid, it's the reality.

After digging into the data, and taking all things into consideration, I concluded that McDavid or Gaudreau should win the Hart.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

McDavid is the best player in the world. I think everyone outside of Toronto can agree on that.

As for this season, I have to give it to Matthews. McDavid was unlucky? Okay, I believe that. Esp considering last year he was pacing towards a prime Yzerman season which was totally insane.

But the bottom line is that Matthews put up 60 goals. Maybe there was some puck luck in his favour and maybe not. Bottom line though is that his numbers warrant the trophy in my opinion. It's not a slam dunk but he'd get my vote.

 

[tapi]

Matthews is the more complete player of the two. Better defense, better scoring. Generational performance in the latter category. Two big areas obviously, and without injuries Matthews would have had a great shot at outpointing McDavid as well. This season especially it is clearly Matthews who deserves the Hart.

 

[The Panther]

But the bottom line is that Matthews put up 60 goals.

Yeah... but of the past 8 Hart winners, ZERO led the NHL in goals.

 

[Video Nasty]

Matthews is the more complete player of the two. Better defense, better scoring. Generational performance in the latter category. Two big areas obviously, and without injuries Matthews would have had a great shot at outpointing McDavid as well. This season especially it is clearly Matthews who deserves the Hart.

Not really. He missed 8 games and 2 were due to suspension. He has 106 right now. How is needing currently 17 more points (2.13 ppg) in those 8 games seen as a great shot?

Particularly when McDavid himself has missed a game and has a game in hand remaining?

We’re talking about what could be a 20 point gap by season’s end and you think Matthews needing to average almost 3 points a game in the 7 games fewer he’ll play is a great shot?

Matthews has had a fantastic campaign and is likely to win the Hart, right or wrong. No need to blow smoke and make it even bigger than it actually is.

 

[The Panther]

Matthews is the more complete player of the two. Better defense, better scoring.

How can Matthews be "the more complete player" when he consistently scores fewer points than McDavid, and is on the ice for more goals against than McDavid in less ice time?

We get it -- Leafs' fans have suffered for a major award winner the past 60 years and are desperate to anoint Matthews. And Matthews is having a fabulous season. We all get it. But you don't need to make stuff up to push your case.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Yeah... but of the past 8 Hart winners, ZERO led the NHL in goals.

That's fine. 60 goals I think will tip the scales this time.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Matthews is the more complete player of the two. Better defense, better scoring. Generational performance in the latter category. Two big areas obviously, and without injuries Matthews would have had a great shot at outpointing McDavid as well. This season especially it is clearly Matthews who deserves the Hart.

Depends what you mean by complete and how you slant that definition to fit the player you are promoting.
Matthews is the better goal scorer by a good margin and McDavid is the better playmaker by a huge margin with 32 more assists than Matthews. 78 assists to 46 assists is a massive gap in playmaking. In terms of points it’s also McDavid as he will win a fourth Art Ross, a generational accomplishment at his age. I believe only two other generational players have won 4 Art Rosses at such a young age so he’s in very elite company with the all time greats. He is out producing Matthews by 16 points. Sure Matthews has played less games because of injury/suspension but the MVP award has always been about staying healthy.
And keep in mind that McDavid is doing this with Puljaarvi and Hyman on his line while Matthews plays with another superstar in Marner.
I do agree that Matthews is somewhat better defensively but I don’t think either is elite defensively.
So more complete? Depends on how you define that. I think there are stronger arguments for McDavid but I can certainly see arguments for both players this year.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

That's fine. 60 goals I think will tip the scales this time.

It didn't seem to matter for Stamkos, and scoring 60 in 2011-12 is arguably more impressive because league scoring seems to be up substantially from 10 years ago.