NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[Mickey Marner]

Matthews is literally -275 to win, McDavid +275.

You are literally so damn foolish if your answer is anything other than those two.

That's a really good payout for McDavid.

 

[Busher]

Having looked at the list of 60 goal scorers, I was surprised to learn that just about all the great goal scorers are on that list. If Matthews wins his 2nd Rocket, he’ll become just the 10th player in hockey history to score 60 goals and win 2 Rockets (and retro Rockets):

Phil Esposito
Mike Bossy
Wayne Gretzky
Mario Lemieux
Brett Hull
Pavel Bure
Teemu Selanne
Alex Ovechkin
Steven Stamkos
Austin Matthews

That’s basically the who’s who of modern goal scoring greats.

 

[Nadal On Clay]

Hate to break it to the Oilers fans here, and feel free to bump this if it's proven wrong...

But Matthews dunked on McDavid this year. That's not to say he's a better player, he was just better this year.

This is what the voters will look at...

Where the teams finished, the Leafs had a way better record in much tougher division.

50 goals in 50 games

60 goals in a season

Better even strength production, similar overall production. I think pro-rated Matthews would have 10 less points than McDavid, despite playing way less minutes, and that's where the 60 goals factor in bigger.

And obviously, lets not even mention defensive play, where Matthews crushes him.

Again, this is only for this season, obviously McDavid is the best player starting again next year, but this year it's easily Matthews.

- They have the same amount of ESP. (McDavid has 1 more SHP)
- They definitely don’t have a similar overall production (McDavid leads Matthews by 16 points).
- Pro-rating is useless when it comes to the Hart Trophy.
- You miss games, you’re not as valuable. We’ve seen that with Crosby in 2013.
- The Leafs are 6-1-1 without Matthews, the Oilers are 0-1 without McDavid. The fact that a Matthews-less Toronto team is better than a McDavid-less Edmonton team is not a knock on McDavid, it is actually an argument for him.

 

[Busher]

Hate to break it to the Oilers fans here, and feel free to bump this if it's proven wrong...

But Matthews dunked on McDavid this year. That's not to say he's a better player, he was just better this year.

This is what the voters will look at...

Where the teams finished, the Leafs had a way better record in much tougher division.

50 goals in 50 games

60 goals in a season

Better even strength production, similar overall production. I think pro-rated Matthews would have 10 less points than McDavid, despite playing way less minutes, and that's where the 60 goals factor in bigger.

And obviously, lets not even mention defensive play, where Matthews crushes him.

Again, this is only for this season, obviously McDavid is the best player starting again next year, but this year it's easily Matthews.

What amazes me about part of his defensive play is Matthews actually leads the ENTIRE NHL in takeaways with 92 (in just 73 games, nonetheless).

Among just forwards, he has a whopping 20 takeaways more than the next leading forward.

 

[The Panther]

Hate to break it to the Oilers fans here, and feel free to bump this if it's proven wrong...

But Matthews dunked on McDavid this year. That's not to say he's a better player, he was just better this year.

This is what the voters will look at...

Where the teams finished, the Leafs had a way better record in much tougher division.

50 goals in 50 games

60 goals in a season

Better even strength production, similar overall production. I think pro-rated Matthews would have 10 less points than McDavid, despite playing way less minutes, and that's where the 60 goals factor in bigger.

And obviously, lets not even mention defensive play, where Matthews crushes him.

Again, this is only for this season, obviously McDavid is the best player starting again next year, but this year it's easily Matthews.

This is one of the crazier posts I've seen on here. Congrats!

Matthews dunked on McDavid this year = Nope.
Where the teams finished, the Leafs had a way better record in much tougher division = Nope. I guess it's tough when you've got Buffalo, Montreal, Detroit, and Ottawa regularly!
Better even strength production, similar overall production. = "Similar"... Wait, I thought he "dunked" on McDavid? Which is it? Matthews had superior production for a 15-20 game stretch when the Oilers went into a tail-spin and got the coach fired.
lets not even mention defensive play, where Matthews crushes him. = I don't think so. I don't watch the Leafs enough to have a strong opinion about it either way, but if this "crushing" were going on, you'd have to explain why Matthews (despite playing on a stronger team) is on the ice for more goals against than McDavid is, in fewer games and with less ice time?


Matthews is obviously having a great season and Leafs' fans should enjoy and celebrate it. However, according to my own brief analysis of things, if I were voting, I'd vote for McDavid or Gaudreau. If I have to choose, probably Gaudreau.

 

[Coffey]

This is one of the crazier posts I've seen on here. Congrats!

Matthews dunked on McDavid this year = Nope.
Where the teams finished, the Leafs had a way better record in much tougher division = Nope. I guess it's tough when you've got Buffalo, Montreal, Detroit, and Ottawa regularly!
Better even strength production, similar overall production. = "Similar"... Wait, I thought he "dunked" on McDavid? Which is it? Matthews had superior production for a 15-20 game stretch when the Oilers went into a tail-spin and got the coach fired.
lets not even mention defensive play, where Matthews crushes him. = I don't think so. I don't watch the Leafs enough to have a strong opinion about it either way, but if this "crushing" were going on, you'd have to explain why Matthews (despite playing on a stronger team) is on the ice for more goals against than McDavid is, in fewer games and with less ice time?


Matthews is obviously have a great season and Leafs' fans should enjoy and celebrate it. However, according to my own brief analysis of things, if I were voting, I'd vote for McDavid or Gaudreau. If I have to choose, probably Gaudreau.

Looks like you just dunked on him.

 

[Cup or Bust]

This is one of the crazier posts I've seen on here. Congrats!

Matthews dunked on McDavid this year = Nope.
Where the teams finished, the Leafs had a way better record in much tougher division = Nope. I guess it's tough when you've got Buffalo, Montreal, Detroit, and Ottawa regularly!
Better even strength production, similar overall production. = "Similar"... Wait, I thought he "dunked" on McDavid? Which is it? Matthews had superior production for a 15-20 game stretch when the Oilers went into a tail-spin and got the coach fired.
lets not even mention defensive play, where Matthews crushes him. = I don't think so. I don't watch the Leafs enough to have a strong opinion about it either way, but if this "crushing" were going on, you'd have to explain why Matthews (despite playing on a stronger team) is on the ice for more goals against than McDavid is, in fewer games and with less ice time?


Matthews is obviously have a great season and Leafs' fans should enjoy and celebrate it. However, according to my own brief analysis of things, if I were voting, I'd vote for McDavid or Gaudreau. If I have to choose, probably Gaudreau.

Yeah that great defensive play in regards to Matthews is nothing but pure nonsense. Great defensive play means actually stopping goals from being scored while on the ice, which he doesn't do well.

 

[The Panther]

The Art Ross, Rocket and Selke are all forward awards pretty much. Not absurd to argue defensemen (and goalies) should have equal opportunity to win the Hart. I know that's not been the case most of the time with Norris winners being overlooked when voting for the Hart. I just think Josi is the most valuable this season, and his playing position shouldn't matter.

I don't disagree with you. I'm just saying, realistically, Josi won't win.

Pronger is the only 'D' to win the Hart since 1972. Also, doing a brief statistical analysis, as I did earlier, doesn't work if I throw a defenceman in.

 

[Busher]

This is one of the crazier posts I've seen on here. Congrats!

Matthews dunked on McDavid this year = Nope.
Where the teams finished, the Leafs had a way better record in much tougher division = Nope. I guess it's tough when you've got Buffalo, Montreal, Detroit, and Ottawa regularly!
Better even strength production, similar overall production. = "Similar"... Wait, I thought he "dunked" on McDavid? Which is it? Matthews had superior production for a 15-20 game stretch when the Oilers went into a tail-spin and got the coach fired.
lets not even mention defensive play, where Matthews crushes him. = I don't think so. I don't watch the Leafs enough to have a strong opinion about it either way, but if this "crushing" were going on, you'd have to explain why Matthews (despite playing on a stronger team) is on the ice for more goals against than McDavid is, in fewer games and with less ice time?


Matthews is obviously have a great season and Leafs' fans should enjoy and celebrate it. However, according to my own brief analysis of things, if I were voting, I'd vote for McDavid or Gaudreau. If I have to choose, probably Gaudreau.

A team’s record matters. Edmonton hasn’t won enough games this year, and they’ll finish outside the top 10 in overall standings. Hart winners usually play for teams that finish near the top of the standings unless the candidate has some other special narrative.

McDavid had that special narrative last year. 100 points in 56 games. Best PPG since Mario Lemieux.

This year, Matthews has the special narrative. This year, Matthews is the one bringing Mario Lemieux into the news, with 50 in 50 and best GPG since Mario.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Those numeric milestones have always been a huge deal.

The reason Gretzky won the Hart so often was he was setting new records each year.

Lemieux once got to 199, and lost the Hart to Gretzky. I have no doubt that if Mario cracked 200 he would have won the Hart that year but Gretzky dragging the Kings from the dregs to the penthouse was a bigger story.


50 goals in 50 games is a huge deal. 50 goals in 51 games loses a ton of lustre.

Well, it's certainly a 'better story', which is what the Hart is about.

I'm a bit doubtful Matthews wins the Lindsay.

I think Matthews has a better chance of winning the Lindsay than the Hart for three reasons:

- players seem to be less likely to penalize someone for missing time (Jagr over Pronger in 2000, Ovechkin over Sedin in 2010, Crosby over Ovechkin in 2013) - so Matthews missing 8 games might not be as big a deal

- voting takes place before the season is over (Naslund over Forsberg in 2003, Jagr over Thornton in 2006, Sedin over Perry in 2011) - if voting took place two weeks ago, Matthews would have just finished 50 goals in 50 games and some people were talking about the possibility of him reaching 65 or even 70 goals

- players seem more likely vote to vote for someone new (Liut over Gretzky in 1981, Lemieux over Gretzky in 1986, Yzerman over Gretzky/Lemieux in 1989) - McDavid being the best player, but not by a huge margin this year, might not be an exciting enough story

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Matthews wins it due to the narrative and voters getting McDavid fatigue

 

[X66]

- They have the same amount of ESP. (McDavid has 1 more SHP)
- They definitely don’t have a similar overall production (McDavid leads Matthews by 16 points).
- Pro-rating is useless when it comes to the Hart Trophy.
- You miss games, you’re not as valuable. We’ve seen that with Crosby in 2013.
- The Leafs are 6-1-1 without Matthews, the Oilers are 0-1 without McDavid. The fact that a Matthews-less Toronto team is better than a McDavid-less Edmonton team is not a knock on McDavid, it is actually an argument for him.

Bump this after the award is given then!

 

[Holymakinaw]

Matthews wins it due to the narrative and voters getting McDavid fatigue

Oh so not at all based on him earning it?

Got it.

 

[X66]

This is one of the crazier posts I've seen on here. Congrats!

Matthews dunked on McDavid this year = Nope.
Where the teams finished, the Leafs had a way better record in much tougher division = Nope. I guess it's tough when you've got Buffalo, Montreal, Detroit, and Ottawa regularly!
Better even strength production, similar overall production. = "Similar"... Wait, I thought he "dunked" on McDavid? Which is it? Matthews had superior production for a 15-20 game stretch when the Oilers went into a tail-spin and got the coach fired.
lets not even mention defensive play, where Matthews crushes him. = I don't think so. I don't watch the Leafs enough to have a strong opinion about it either way, but if this "crushing" were going on, you'd have to explain why Matthews (despite playing on a stronger team) is on the ice for more goals against than McDavid is, in fewer games and with less ice time?


Matthews is obviously having a great season and Leafs' fans should enjoy and celebrate it. However, according to my own brief analysis of things, if I were voting, I'd vote for McDavid or Gaudreau. If I have to choose, probably Gaudreau.

We'll bump this when the award is given!

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Oh so not at all based on him earning it?

Got it.

I mean he obviously has had an amazing season but there should be no doubt McDavid is far more valuable to the Oilers than Matthews to the Leafs

 

[The Panther]

We'll bump this when the award is given!

Why?

 

[Nadal On Clay]

Bump this after the award is given then!

All I did was quoting all the false/wrong claims in your posts. Matthews has a pretty decent chance to win the Hart, but it’ll definitely be close.

 

[NoName]

Matthews wins it due to the narrative and voters getting McDavid fatigue

That would be my guess: 60 goals is a once-in-a-decade event and McDavid winning the scoring race is becoming routine at this point (not to say it isn't very impressive, just that voters usually don't want to give the MVP to the same player every year- see Jordan, Lebron and Gretzky) . Then again, Matthews missed games might have cost him too much production.

 

[Holymakinaw]

I mean he obviously has had an amazing season but there should be no doubt McDavid is far more valuable to the Oilers than Matthews to the Leafs

LMAO. That's ridiculous. The Leafs would not be any good at all without Matthews.

I've never once said that Matthews SHOULD win it, but to say that McDavid is the only logical choice, is dumb. Matthews is right there with him, and Josi, Gaudreau, Herberdeau are all worthy as well. It's a tight race and the FACT is.......no one is a lock to win it.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Those numeric milestones have always been a huge deal.

The reason Gretzky won the Hart so often was he was setting new records each year.

Lemieux once got to 199, and lost the Hart to Gretzky. I have no doubt that if Mario cracked 200 he would have won the Hart that year but Gretzky dragging the Kings from the dregs to the penthouse was a bigger story.


50 goals in 50 games is a huge deal. 50 goals in 51 games loses a ton of lustre.

Well, it's certainly a 'better story', which is what the Hart is about.

I'm a bit doubtful Matthews wins the Lindsay.

Yeah but it's not a real 50 in 50, it's a hot stretch

Lets look at the last time someone scored 60...2012

Stamkos scored 60, winning the Rocket by 10 over Malkin. He was 12 pts behind Malkin in the Ross race (109 vs 97). Pretty much the same set up as Matthews and McDavid this year.

Malkin ran away with the Hart with 144 1st place votes to Stamkos's 1. Obviously you have to factor in the "Malkin carried Pitt with Crosby out" narrative, so this year is certainly more of a coin flip.

 

[X66]

This is one of the crazier posts I've seen on here. Congrats!

Matthews dunked on McDavid this year = Nope.
Where the teams finished, the Leafs had a way better record in much tougher division = Nope. I guess it's tough when you've got Buffalo, Montreal, Detroit, and Ottawa regularly!
Better even strength production, similar overall production. = "Similar"... Wait, I thought he "dunked" on McDavid? Which is it? Matthews had superior production for a 15-20 game stretch when the Oilers went into a tail-spin and got the coach fired.
lets not even mention defensive play, where Matthews crushes him. = I don't think so. I don't watch the Leafs enough to have a strong opinion about it either way, but if this "crushing" were going on, you'd have to explain why Matthews (despite playing on a stronger team) is on the ice for more goals against than McDavid is, in fewer games and with less ice time?


Matthews is obviously having a great season and Leafs' fans should enjoy and celebrate it. However, according to my own brief analysis of things, if I were voting, I'd vote for McDavid or Gaudreau. If I have to choose, probably Gaudreau.

A division with Florida, Tampa, Toronto and Boston is much, much better than whatever division the Oilers played in.

He dunked on McDavid because 60 goals in 73 games is more impressive than ANYTHING McDavid has done this year.

Leafs didn't have the best goaltending this year in huge stretches, so that's why Matthews was on for more goals against, but just look at their defensive metrics.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

LMAO. That's ridiculous. The Leafs would not be any good at all without Matthews.

I've never once said that Matthews SHOULD win it, but to say that McDavid is the only logical choice, is dumb. Matthews is right there with him, and Josi, Gaudreau, Herberdeau are all worthy as well. It's a tight race and the FACT is.......no one is a lock to win it.

Take Matthews off Leafs they are a playoff team.

Take McDavid off Oilers they are fighting for 1st overall

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

A division with Florida, Tampa, Toronto and Boston is much, much better than whatever division the Oilers played in.

He dunked on McDavid because 60 goals in 73 games is more impressive than ANYTHING McDavid has done this year.

LOL. I thought it was 51 in 50?

It's a great season. Players have great seasons every year. But it's not a Hart season this year. Leafs are still pretty competitive without Matthews.

 

[Buzzman17]

Yeah but it's not a real 50 in 50, it's a hot stretch

Lets look at the last time someone scored 60...2012

Stamkos scored 60, winning the Rocket by 10 over Malkin. He was 12 pts behind Malkin in the Ross race (109 vs 97). Pretty much the same set up as Matthews and McDavid this year.

Malkin ran away with the Hart with 144 1st place votes to Stamkos's 1. Obviously you have to factor in the "Malkin carried Pitt with Crosby out" narrative, so this year is certainly more of a coin flip.

Didn’t Tampa miss playoffs

 

[Holymakinaw]

Take Matthews off Leafs they are a playoff team.

Take McDavid off Oilers they are fighting for 1st overall

LOL. No.