NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[TopG]

No, it doesn't.

The Hart (MVP) goes to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.

that’s where you’re wrong. Sure it says that in the description but it’s been years since it’s actually gone to that person. It’s basically a glorified Lindsay voted on by the media. Matthews wins it

 

[The Panther]

that’s where you’re wrong. Sure it says that in the description but it’s been years since it’s actually gone to that person. It’s basically a glorified Lindsay voted on by the media. Matthews wins it

Of course, the mass of voters don't take the award 100% literally, or Wayne Gretzky would never have won it over Dale Hawerchuk.

On the other hand, you can't argue that voters don't take importance to team into consideration. (See: Taylor Hall's Hart.)

Hall was never the best player, even in one season.
Was Messier better than Gretzky and Lemieux twice?
Brett Hull wasn't the best player in 1991.
Theodore wasn't the best player in the League, ever. Nor was Price (in my opinion).

 

[v00d00daddy]

The contest between McDavid, Gaudreau, and Matthews for the Hart trophy this year is very tight. (I leave out Josi because I think we can assume he'll win the Norris, and there is no award for "best forward", so the Hart nearly always goes to a forward.) Of course, Huberdeau also has his champions.

The scoring difference between these four forwards is almost a non-factor, to me. The PPG of these four (currently) is: 1.54, 1.45, 1.44, 1.41. That amounts to a difference between 126 points and 116 points over an 82-game span. Which is nothing.

Still, just going by PPG and total points, McDavid is the front-runner since he'll probably win another Art Ross, even if it's not at all a decisive win. Still, the Art Ross winner often wins the Hart, as we know.

With Hart trophies, you always look at team narratives, which need to be there for a player to win (esp. a non-"canon-ized" player like Huberdeau or Gaudreau). McDavid and Matthews don't really have a strong team narrative this year -- the Oilers are about the same as last season overall, and the Leafs are quite strong but have been strong for a few years. Huberdeau has the advantage of his team being 1st overall, though they were already great the past couple of years, so that narrative is similar to Matthews. Gaudreau has the best team narrative of the four, I think. The Flames were mediocre last year, and are dominant this year, and he's been very consistent and is their best player.

Then there's the "sex appeal" / media-frenzy factor, which of course favors Matthews. (If a candidate plays for the Rangers, he automatically wins this.) Matthews (a) is having an elite season in elite-starved Toronto, which automatically favors his chances, and (b) has reached 60 goals, which nobody has done for 11 (?) years.

Then, there's the literal-definition-of-the-award factor; i.e., the player whose team would suffer the most in the standings if he were not there. This is obviously subjective and not easily measurable. I don't have time to do a deep-dive into it statistically (one would hope the voters will... but they probably won't), but I can do a very simple check of a few things:

Players' point-total as a percentage of team's overall goals:
43.3% -- McDavid (122/282)
39% -- Gaudreau (113/290)
34.4% -- Huberdeau (115/334)
34.2% -- Matthews (106/310)

Then, let's remove Power-plays from that:
Players' ES point-total as a percentage of team's overall ES goals:
38.8% -- Gaudreau (88/227)
37.2% -- McDavid (77/207)
33.2% -- Matthews (77/232)
28.1% -- Huberdeau (72/256)

Then:
Teams' total GF/GA with player on/off the ice:
+122 McDavid --- McDavid on: +79 McDavid off: -43 (Edmonton 282/246 McDavid 150/71)
+118 Gaudreau --- Gaudrea on: +103 Gaudreau off: -15 (Calgary 290/202 Gaudreau 155/52)
+73 Matthews --- Matthews on: +66 Matthews off: -7 (Toronto 310/251 Matthews 147/81)
+42 Huberdeau --- Huberdeau on: +70 Huberdeau off: +28 (Florida 334/236 Huberdeau 149/79)


Taking the bulk of these "most valuable to his team" things into consideration, I think McDavid is the favorite, but Gaudreau is just behind him. Both players' teams are overall in negative goal differentials when they are not on the ice. Edmonton, however, is a bad team when McDavid is not on the ice, overall. (The Flames are also mediocre at best with Gaudreau; in fact, somewhat poor.)

The above stat gives a little less credence to the Matthews' argument, and certainly less to Huberdeau's (which is largely a result of his team being so high scoring). The Panthers are still a strong positive team when Huberdeau is on the bench.


Finally, of course, there's this:
Plus / Minus (i.e., ES results overall)
+63 Gaudreau
+35 Huberdeau
+27 McDavid
+20 Matthews

Plus/Minus is more so a team result than a player one, but there's no denying Gaudreau (and his line) in Calgary are having an amazingly dominant season at even strength. Here, Huberdeau and McDavid look about what you'd expect, and maybe Matthews a little less so, though still good (as seen above, Matthews has been on the ice for the most goals against of the four).

____________________

Of course, the above stats aren't taking into account ice time, situational usage (though these four are surely all pretty similar?), etc., but I think it gives us some good info.


In my opinion, with 2-3 games left in the season, the Hart trophy should go to McDavid or Gaudreau. Considering McDavid is the scoring leader, and Gaudreau is near him and on the most dominant ES line (with a great team narrative, to boot), AND considering these two's teams depend on them the most to be competitive, they have the strongest arguments, I think.

I think the stats above, and my casual knowledge of him, almost rule-out Huberdeau. His performance is Hart worthy, certainly, but taking into account all factors, including value to team, I think he's clearly below the other three discussed here.

Matthews is in a middle-ground. I know there's the argument that "60-goals-gives-him-the-advantage", but does it? Historically, the Hart trophy very rarely goes to a goal-slanted scorer who isn't, say, 1st or 2nd in League scoring. Sure, Matthews might be 2nd (or 3rd) in scoring if he hadn't missed games, but the Hart doesn't take into account missed games for value. And while the Leafs certainly needed Matthews to be in 2nd place, they needed him less, I think, than the Oilers did McDavid or the Flames Gaudreau.


So, it's a tough one, but I lean towards McDavid or Gaudreau, trying to take all things into account. McDavid's disadvantage, of course, is voter fatigue. I wouldn't be upset if the final awards were:
Hart -- Gaudreau
Lindsay -- MacDavid
Richard -- Matthews

Hey you might be right. I doubt very much that anyone voting for any award, media or nhlpa, do anything like you’ve just done. Doesn’t help that you’ve chosen stats you think should determine the winner. Nowhere does it say that’s how it’s ever been done.

Also you come off like you don’t watch as much as you analyse stats. I predict the nhlpa vote will totally contradict what you’ve spent all this time on.

Hub, Guadreau, Shirs all had great seasons.
Some media will vote a bit for them but not enough to win the hart. Then no player is gonna pick any of them over matthews and cmd for the Lindsay. And once you compare those two it’s up in the air. I think the Hart is a coin flip and the Lindsay is gonna be Matthews by a lot.

We shall see

 

[plattnacken]

The contest between McDavid, Gaudreau, and Matthews for the Hart trophy this year is very tight. (I leave out Josi because I think we can assume he'll win the Norris, and there is no award for "best forward", so the Hart nearly always goes to a forward.)

The Art Ross, Rocket and Selke are all forward awards pretty much. Not absurd to argue defensemen (and goalies) should have equal opportunity to win the Hart. I know that's not been the case most of the time with Norris winners being overlooked when voting for the Hart. I just think Josi is the most valuable this season, and his playing position shouldn't matter.

 

[koyvoo]

The Art Ross, Rocket and Selke are all forward awards pretty much. Not absurd to argue defensemen (and goalies) should have equal opportunity to win the Hart. I know that's not been the case most of the time with Norris winners being overlooked when voting for the Hart. I just think Josi is the most valuable this season, and his playing position shouldn't matter.

These guys will probably tell you a defenseman shouldn’t win the Lindsay either…because they have their own award already.

 

[Lahey]

Matthews is literally -275 to win, McDavid +275.

You are literally so damn foolish if your answer is anything other than those two.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

I'm not really interested in his defensive metrics because he's not really used in situations where he actually plays with a "defense first" mentality. And he shouldn't be for that matter, he's most effective when he's scoring goals, not shutting down the opposition. But there is an effect that happens when you are on an offensively dominant line where your matchup really isn't trying to score when you're on the ice, they're just concerned with shutting you down. I've seen many former players talk about this effect. I can recall Daniel Alfredsson saying how he was surprised when he played with Spezza and Heatley because the other teams stopped trying to score when they were out on the ice, they just focused on shutting down that line. The same thing is happening with Matthews, and really it's a testament to how lethal of an offensive threat he is. This however, does make it so his job on defense is a hell of a lot easier than most.

Well said. I would add that his numbers don't tell the whole story with regard to his defensive play. This won't be a popular opinion around here, but just watch Matthews actually play in his own end - inside his own blue line - and you'll see a player that consistently has lapses and missed assignments, and is rarely the first forward back....all of which are even worse given that he is a center. His takeaways mostly happen in the neutral zone, but rarely inside his own blue line, as he is often late back and chasing the play.

He's having a heck of a year offensively and I have no issues with him winning the Hart, as he has been such a dominant force offensively. But this narrative that he is a 200 foot player is, in my opinion, misleading and misguided. He is a fantastic 130 ft player.

 

[bobbyking]

NHL is a true joke if huberdeau wins

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Of course, the mass of voters don't take the award 100% literally, or Wayne Gretzky would never have won it over Dale Hawerchuk.

On the other hand, you can't argue that voters don't take importance to team into consideration. (See: Taylor Hall's Hart.)

Hall was never the best player, even in one season.
Was Messier better than Gretzky and Lemieux twice?
Brett Hull wasn't the best player in 1991.
Theodore wasn't the best player in the League, ever. Nor was Price (in my opinion).

Bingo.

Hart Trophy is the "best story" (of any player on a playoff team) trophy.

Once Gretzky stopped shattering the record books each season, he stopped winning the Hart.



IMHO the 2 biggest stories this year are Shesh and Matthews.

 

[koyvoo]

Bingo.

Hart Trophy is the "best story" (of any player on a playoff team) trophy.

Once Gretzky stopped shattering the record books each season, he stopped winning the Hart.



IMHO the 2 biggest stories this year are Shesh and Matthews.

A defenseman doing something not done in 3 decades, plus leading his team (which likely doesn’t make the playoffs without him) in scoring by a considerable margin is equally as big a story.

 

[koyvoo]

Matthews is literally -275 to win, McDavid +275.

You are literally so damn foolish if your answer is anything other than those two.

It’ll definitely come down to one of the two, but do you understand that betting lines are laid in relation to anticipated bets coming in? These aren’t straight, clean odds.

 

[Golden_Jet]

that’s where you’re wrong. Sure it says that in the description but it’s been years since it’s actually gone to that person. It’s basically a glorified Lindsay voted on by the media. Matthews wins it

Taylor Hall 2018, 41 point lead over next teammate.

 

[TheDoldrums]

NHL is a true joke if huberdeau wins

He won't finish top 5 imo

 

[Future]

Matthews is literally -275 to win, McDavid +275.

You are literally so damn foolish if your answer is anything other than those two.

Personally cannot wait for the HF meltdown when Matthews wins. It’s something I will cherish for as long as I am on this forum.

Threads will pop up about how X player deserves it more. Another one about Toronto media deciding awards. Almost certainly a thread about changing the rules of some of the trophies like the Hart & Calder because of Matthews/Bunting.

Oh man, this is going to be great!

 

[Perfect_Drug]

A defenseman doing something not done in 3 decades, plus leading his team (which likely doesn’t make the playoffs without him) in scoring by a considerable margin is equally as big a story.

I think Josi is a great story, but not nearly as big as if he were able to reach 100.
I thought Matthews was on the outside until he potted 60. Now it's a tangible STORY.


The bigger stories are the guys on the O6 teams playing for the 2 largest markets (this is a media trophy afterall).

 

[Kazparov]

Honestly there's a handful of super deserving players this year. McDavid, Matthews, Huberdeau or a few others all worthy.

The QQing from Leaf nation if Matty doesn't get it will be legendary.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Personally cannot wait for the HF meltdown when Matthews wins. It’s something I will cherish for as long as I am on this forum.

Threads will pop up about how X player deserves it more. Another one about Toronto media deciding awards. Almost certainly a thread about changing the rules of some of the trophies like the Hart & Calder because of Matthews/Bunting.

Oh man, this is going to be great!

No. I think everyone knows Matthews will win, deservingly so.

The only thing that will likely knock his accomplishment down a peg, is if Draisaitl scores 5 goals in his final 2 games to reach 60. Then it will lose its "specialness".

 

[Future]

Well said. I would add that his numbers don't tell the whole story with regard to his defensive play. This won't be a popular opinion around here, but just watch Matthews actually play in his own end - inside his own blue line - and you'll see a player that consistently has lapses and missed assignments, and is rarely the first forward back....all of which are even worse given that he is a center. His takeaways mostly happen in the neutral zone, but rarely inside his own blue line, as he is often late back and chasing the play.

He's having a heck of a year offensively and I have no issues with him winning the Hart, as he has been such a dominant force offensively. But this narrative that he is a 200 foot player is, in my opinion, misleading and misguided. He is a fantastic 130 ft player.

You have absolutely no clue what you’re talking about. None.

I’ve watched just about every game this year and your characterization of his game couldn’t be more false.

 

[plattnacken]

I thought Matthews was on the outside until he potted 60. Now it's a tangible STORY.

The fact that 2 extra goals makes such a big difference in the minds of voters is problematic. It's not the "biggest story" award. At least, it shouldn't be.

 

[authentic]

Ken Holland is a moron for not firing Dave Tippett earlier, since Woodcroft was hired just over the half way point of the season McDavid has played at a 1.74 ppg pace which prorates to a 143 point season which would've destroyed every modern comparable.

Oilers score a lot more at 5 on 5 under Woodcroft, Tippett's 5 on 5 system was clue less and it was clear the players were frustrated with it, but Holland dragged that on forever for no reason.

That is if you don’t also prorate everyone else’s last half of the season lol

 

[authentic]

You have absolutely no clue what you’re talking about. None.

I’ve watched just about every game this year and your characterization of his game couldn’t be more false.

These people don’t deserve to be taken seriously. It’s just a purely false assessment of his game.

 

[authentic]

The fact that 2 extra goals makes such a big difference in the minds of voters is problematic. It's not the "biggest story" award. At least, it shouldn't be.

No but if it was the best player award he wins it, which it usually is.

 

[X66]

Hate to break it to the Oilers fans here, and feel free to bump this if it's proven wrong...

But Matthews dunked on McDavid this year. That's not to say he's a better player, he was just better this year.

This is what the voters will look at...

Where the teams finished, the Leafs had a way better record in much tougher division.

50 goals in 50 games

60 goals in a season

Better even strength production, similar overall production. I think pro-rated Matthews would have 10 less points than McDavid, despite playing way less minutes, and that's where the 60 goals factor in bigger.

And obviously, lets not even mention defensive play, where Matthews crushes him.

Again, this is only for this season, obviously McDavid is the best player starting again next year, but this year it's easily Matthews.

 

[authentic]

The contest between McDavid, Gaudreau, and Matthews for the Hart trophy this year is very tight. (I leave out Josi because I think we can assume he'll win the Norris, and there is no award for "best forward", so the Hart nearly always goes to a forward.) Of course, Huberdeau also has his champions.

The scoring difference between these four forwards is almost a non-factor, to me. The PPG of these four (currently) is: 1.54, 1.45, 1.44, 1.41. That amounts to a difference between 126 points and 116 points over an 82-game span. Which is nothing.

Still, just going by PPG and total points, McDavid is the front-runner since he'll probably win another Art Ross, even if it's not at all a decisive win. Still, the Art Ross winner often wins the Hart, as we know.

With Hart trophies, you always look at team narratives, which need to be there for a player to win (esp. a non-"canon-ized" player like Huberdeau or Gaudreau). McDavid and Matthews don't really have a strong team narrative this year -- the Oilers are about the same as last season overall, and the Leafs are quite strong but have been strong for a few years. Huberdeau has the advantage of his team being 1st overall, though they were already great the past couple of years, so that narrative is similar to Matthews. Gaudreau has the best team narrative of the four, I think. The Flames were mediocre last year, and are dominant this year, and he's been very consistent and is their best player.

Then there's the "sex appeal" / media-frenzy factor, which of course favors Matthews. (If a candidate plays for the Rangers, he automatically wins this.) Matthews (a) is having an elite season in elite-starved Toronto, which automatically favors his chances, and (b) has reached 60 goals, which nobody has done for 11 (?) years.

Then, there's the literal-definition-of-the-award factor; i.e., the player whose team would suffer the most in the standings if he were not there. This is obviously subjective and not easily measurable. I don't have time to do a deep-dive into it statistically (one would hope the voters will... but they probably won't), but I can do a very simple check of a few things:

Players' point-total as a percentage of team's overall goals:
43.3% -- McDavid (122/282)
39% -- Gaudreau (113/290)
34.4% -- Huberdeau (115/334)
34.2% -- Matthews (106/310)

Then, let's remove Power-plays from that:
Players' ES point-total as a percentage of team's overall ES goals:
38.8% -- Gaudreau (88/227)
37.2% -- McDavid (77/207)
33.2% -- Matthews (77/232)
28.1% -- Huberdeau (72/256)

Then:
Teams' total GF/GA with player on/off the ice:
+122 McDavid --- McDavid on: +79 McDavid off: -43 (Edmonton 282/246 McDavid 150/71)
+118 Gaudreau --- Gaudrea on: +103 Gaudreau off: -15 (Calgary 290/202 Gaudreau 155/52)
+73 Matthews --- Matthews on: +66 Matthews off: -7 (Toronto 310/251 Matthews 147/81)
+42 Huberdeau --- Huberdeau on: +70 Huberdeau off: +28 (Florida 334/236 Huberdeau 149/79)


Taking the bulk of these "most valuable to his team" things into consideration, I think McDavid is the favorite, but Gaudreau is just behind him. Both players' teams are overall in negative goal differentials when they are not on the ice. Edmonton, however, is a bad team when McDavid is not on the ice, overall. (The Flames are also mediocre at best with Gaudreau; in fact, somewhat poor.)

The above stat gives a little less credence to the Matthews' argument, and certainly less to Huberdeau's (which is largely a result of his team being so high scoring). The Panthers are still a strong positive team when Huberdeau is on the bench.


Finally, of course, there's this:
Plus / Minus (i.e., ES results overall)
+63 Gaudreau
+35 Huberdeau
+27 McDavid
+20 Matthews

Plus/Minus is more so a team result than a player one, but there's no denying Gaudreau (and his line) in Calgary are having an amazingly dominant season at even strength. Here, Huberdeau and McDavid look about what you'd expect, and maybe Matthews a little less so, though still good (as seen above, Matthews has been on the ice for the most goals against of the four).

____________________

Of course, the above stats aren't taking into account ice time, situational usage (though these four are surely all pretty similar?), etc., but I think it gives us some good info.


In my opinion, with 2-3 games left in the season, the Hart trophy should go to McDavid or Gaudreau. Considering McDavid is the scoring leader, and Gaudreau is near him and on the most dominant ES line (with a great team narrative, to boot), AND considering these two's teams depend on them the most to be competitive, they have the strongest arguments, I think.

I think the stats above, and my casual knowledge of him, almost rule-out Huberdeau. His performance is Hart worthy, certainly, but taking into account all factors, including value to team, I think he's clearly below the other three discussed here.

Matthews is in a middle-ground. I know there's the argument that "60-goals-gives-him-the-advantage", but does it? Historically, the Hart trophy very rarely goes to a goal-slanted scorer who isn't, say, 1st or 2nd in League scoring. Sure, Matthews might be 2nd (or 3rd) in scoring if he hadn't missed games, but the Hart doesn't take into account missed games for value. And while the Leafs certainly needed Matthews to be in 2nd place, they needed him less, I think, than the Oilers did McDavid or the Flames Gaudreau.


So, it's a tough one, but I lean towards McDavid or Gaudreau, trying to take all things into account. McDavid's disadvantage, of course, is voter fatigue. I wouldn't be upset if the final awards were:
Hart -- Gaudreau
Lindsay -- MacDavid
Richard -- Matthews

Matthews for Richard is a solid choice.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

The fact that 2 extra goals makes such a big difference in the minds of voters is problematic. It's not the "biggest story" award. At least, it shouldn't be.

Those numeric milestones have always been a huge deal.

The reason Gretzky won the Hart so often was he was setting new records each year.

Lemieux once got to 199, and lost the Hart to Gretzky. I have no doubt that if Mario cracked 200 he would have won the Hart that year but Gretzky dragging the Kings from the dregs to the penthouse was a bigger story.


50 goals in 50 games is a huge deal. 50 goals in 51 games loses a ton of lustre.

Hate to break it to the Oilers fans here, and feel free to bump this if it's proven wrong...

But Matthews dunked on McDavid this year. That's not to say he's a better player, he was just better this year.

This is what the voters will look at...

Where the teams finished, the Leafs had a way better record in much tougher division.

50 goals in 50 games

60 goals in a season

Better even strength production, similar overall production. I think pro-rated Matthews would have 10 less points than McDavid, despite playing way less minutes, and that's where the 60 goals factor in bigger.

And obviously, lets not even mention defensive play, where Matthews crushes him.

Again, this is only for this season, obviously McDavid is the best player starting again next year, but this year it's easily Matthews.

Well, it's certainly a 'better story', which is what the Hart is about.

I'm a bit doubtful Matthews wins the Lindsay.