NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Interesting stat - McDavid leads the league in points.

Cool, I wasn't aware. Congratulations on playing for a coach who plays only 1 pp unit?

 

[Llamamoto]

Cool, I wasn't aware. Congratulations on playing for a coach who plays only 1 pp unit?

Gaudreau has a coach who stacks the top line.

And the Hart isn't about "which player would do best on the other", and even then McDavid would run away with it. The Hart goes to the player most valuable to their team. And regardless of why its being done, Sutter doesn't rely on Gaudreau as much as Woodcroft/Tippet rely on McDavid.

It honestly blows my mind that you don't understand this.

 

[Captain Controversy]

My vote goes to Josi.
The Predators wouldn't make the playoffs without Roman Josi. 90 points on the season. Easy pick.

 

[Video Nasty]

My vote goes to Josi.
The Predators wouldn't make the playoffs without Roman Josi. 90 points on the season. Easy pick.

Let’s say the Oilers finish 5th with 104 points and Dallas gets the #8 seed with 99 points.

You think taking McDavid off the Oilers doesn’t see them finish with at least 6 less points (keep in mind he has 9 game winning goals) and outside the playoffs?

 

[Soundwave]

Ken Holland is a moron for not firing Dave Tippett earlier, since Woodcroft was hired just over the half way point of the season McDavid has played at a 1.74 ppg pace which prorates to a 143 point season which would've destroyed every modern comparable.

Oilers score a lot more at 5 on 5 under Woodcroft, Tippett's 5 on 5 system was clue less and it was clear the players were frustrated with it, but Holland dragged that on forever for no reason.

 

[Satire]

Josi is my vote as well.

McDavid doing McDavid things.
Matthews having an amazing season in his own right.
Gaudreau and the Flames having a monster season and being ES demons.
Huberdeau playing lights out on a strong team.

Any of the above is a great choice for different reasons. Josi is having a season where he is putting the team on his back though. I think the Flames, Panthers, and Leafs have success without those guys. The Oilers probably suck without McDavid to be honest. But I really respect what Josi brings to the table as a vote. If my guy can't win it, I would want it to go to Josi.

 

[keonsbitterness]

But not the value to his team, which is what the Hart measures.

He could definitely win the Lindsay though.

In reality the Hart has turned into most outstanding player/guy deemed to have had the best year. The "most valuable to his team" deal went out the window decades ago.

Why they don't officially change terminology is a mystery.

 

[steierwrass]

In reality the Hart has turned into most outstanding player/guy deemed to have had the best year. The "most valuable to his team" deal went out the window decades ago.

Why they don't officially change terminology is a mystery.

This is half true. Most of time, it's most outstanding, but sometimes there are seasons, where it's some valuable played like Hall. He wasn't most outstanding, maybe not even in top 3 in that category, but he was very good and very valuable for his team and same time Oilers with "most outstanding" McDavid fail to make playoffs. That most valuable part seem to be some kind of tie breaker.

 

[Calderon]

Ken Holland is a moron for not firing Dave Tippett earlier, since Woodcroft was hired just over the half way point of the season McDavid has played at a 1.74 ppg pace which prorates to a 143 point season which would've destroyed every modern comparable.

Oilers score a lot more at 5 on 5 under Woodcroft, Tippett's 5 on 5 system was clue less and it was clear the players were frustrated with it, but Holland dragged that on forever for no reason.

Last season McDavid scored at a 1.88 ppg pace under Tippett, so there's that.

 

[FlameChampion]

If you’re giving the hart to a forward, not really sure how anyone but McDavid doesn’t win it. He has more points than anyone and that should mean something. He doesn’t have the same quality of linemates as some of the other top point producers.

That being said I think there are stronger cases for Josi and Shererstkin than other forwards not McDavid.

I think the Hart has lost some significance over the years. Not sure what the trophy even meana really.

 

[Raym11]

My vote goes to Josi.
The Predators wouldn't make the playoffs without Roman Josi. 90 points on the season. Easy pick.

Agreed, i know scoring is way up league wide, but Nashville never has high scoring forwards (elite levels that is), and Josi is carrying every facet while outscoring the forwards who are breaking goal-scoring franchise records on the same team lol

and i dont have to mention his defensive game

 

[Raym11]

If you’re giving the hart to a forward, not really sure how anyone but McDavid doesn’t win it. He has more points than anyone and that should mean something. He doesn’t have the same quality of linemates as some of the other top point producers.

That being said I think there are stronger cases for Josi and Shererstkin than other forwards not McDavid.

I think the Hart has lost some significance over the years. Not sure what the trophy even meana really.

Lots of words when its obvious who you don't want to win the Hart.

 

[Buzzman17]

If you’re giving the hart to a forward, not really sure how anyone but McDavid doesn’t win it. He has more points than anyone and that should mean something. He doesn’t have the same quality of linemates as some of the other top point producers.

That being said I think there are stronger cases for Josi and Shererstkin than other forwards not McDavid.

I think the Hart has lost some significance over the years. Not sure what the trophy even meana really.

The art Ross goes to the player with more points than anyone. MVP goes to most outstanding player and that’s the 50-50 guy: 60 goals and a ppg clip that puts Matthews a few secondary assists behind Mcdavid.

 

[AlanHUK]

If you’re giving the hart to a forward, not really sure how anyone but McDavid doesn’t win it. He has more points than anyone and that should mean something. He doesn’t have the same quality of linemates as some of the other top point producers.

That being said I think there are stronger cases for Josi and Shererstkin than other forwards not McDavid.

I think the Hart has lost some significance over the years. Not sure what the trophy even meana really.

Voter fatigue, and an uneven spread of voters, and a willingness to not follow the definition used for awarding the trophy.

The more points than anyone just means McDavid wins the Art Ross. It's the point share he has on Oilers goals being 43.88% that should matter more for the Hart. Next closest is JT Miller 40.25% , for someone on a playoff team it's Gaudreau at 39.24%.

 

[JackSlater]

Matthews would be a solid Hart winner, but the missed games really only hurts his case. Missed games can make scoring totals seem more impressive but in a trophy defined by value missed games have to be a negtive.

 

[FlameChampion]

Lots of words when its obvious who you don't want to win the Hart.

I’d honestly be good with either Josi or Shersterkin. I think in the most valuable player to their team and both have had amazing seasons. Both guys have a really strong case.

Just when it comes to forwards, lots of guys have tons of goals, assists and points. Theres lots of options. As mentioned, if the media really wants to give it to a forward, I think McDavid has the best case personally because he has the best results.

 

[Busher]

I would have to think Matthews won it last night the moment he scored 60 goals.

60 goals/100 points (last done in 2008)
50 in 50 (last done in 1996)
Leafs’ franchise goal record
Team 113 points and 53 wins (franchise record)
106 points in just 73 games
Elite defensive play
44 even strength goals

Leading the team to a 110+ point season will be a big factor.

 

[Slapshot Sultan]

lol imagine thinking 15g > 30a

15g translates to 15 goals
30a translates to 30 goals

Yes, 30 primary assists translates to 30 goals, 30 secondary assists translates to 30 goals..

also 30 3rd assists, 30 4th assists, 30 5th assists etc. all translate to 30 goals. Why they don't give points for those as they all translate to goals? I say give an assist to everyone on the team for each goal. 2 assists is so arbitrary. All the puck touches before the goal are equally important, because without them the goal doesn't happen. So 1 point for everybody I say. Equal reward for equal work.

 

[The Panther]

The art Ross goes to the player with more points than anyone. MVP goes to most outstanding player and that’s the 50-50 guy: 60 goals and a ppg clip that puts Matthews a few secondary assists behind Mcdavid.

No, it doesn't.

The Hart (MVP) goes to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.

The Ted Lindsay award goes to the NHL's "most outstanding player", and is awarded by the NHLPA.

 

[Busher]

Matthews is now guaranteed to finish at above .800 goals per game. He will be the first to do so since Mario Lemieux.

Since 1994, only Lemieux and Matthews have achieved this. Sheds more light on how impressive he’s been this season.

 

[The90]

Draisaitl has 2 50 goal seasons.

You were saying?

I thought they didn’t play together? Or is that only when it’s not disproving your argument?

 

[Transplanted Caper]

Whoever wins it will be deserving, but boy are the takes after the fact from the other markets going to be insufferable. Award voting is far less conspiratorial than we think (Save for a few shitty writers driven by imagined slights and inferiority). They do tend to like "stories" rather than a the letter of the law (ie. judging most valuable to their team in this case). Voter fatigue will undeservedly hurt McDavid and having an incredible year in the midst of Matthews, Josi, and Shesterkin will undeservedly hurt Huberdeau and Gaudreau. If I had to bet, I'd say Matthews wins it (he was the front runner before he got hurt late in the year, and has the aura of it's "his turn"), but it's going to be tight. If I had a vote? Oooof. I'd have a really tough time not voting for Josi. 93 points as a D-man and getting that Nashville team into the playoffs? Plus, it's unique and a "story" which voters will like too.

 

[Buzzman17]

No, it doesn't.

The Hart (MVP) goes to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.

The Ted Lindsay award goes to the NHL's "most outstanding player", and is awarded by the NHLPA.

False. Look at past winners. its common knowledge the original terms of reference are ignored.

 

[The Panther]

The contest between McDavid, Gaudreau, and Matthews for the Hart trophy this year is very tight. (I leave out Josi because I think we can assume he'll win the Norris, and there is no award for "best forward", so the Hart nearly always goes to a forward.) Of course, Huberdeau also has his champions.

The scoring difference between these four forwards is almost a non-factor, to me. The PPG of these four (currently) is: 1.54, 1.45, 1.44, 1.41. That amounts to a difference between 126 points and 116 points over an 82-game span. Which is nothing.

Still, just going by PPG and total points, McDavid is the front-runner since he'll probably win another Art Ross, even if it's not at all a decisive win. Still, the Art Ross winner often wins the Hart, as we know.

With Hart trophies, you always look at team narratives, which need to be there for a player to win (esp. a non-"canon-ized" player like Huberdeau or Gaudreau). McDavid and Matthews don't really have a strong team narrative this year -- the Oilers are about the same as last season overall, and the Leafs are quite strong but have been strong for a few years. Huberdeau has the advantage of his team being 1st overall, though they were already great the past couple of years, so that narrative is similar to Matthews. Gaudreau has the best team narrative of the four, I think. The Flames were mediocre last year, and are dominant this year, and he's been very consistent and is their best player.

Then there's the "sex appeal" / media-frenzy factor, which of course favors Matthews. (If a candidate plays for the Rangers, he automatically wins this.) Matthews (a) is having an elite season in elite-starved Toronto, which automatically favors his chances, and (b) has reached 60 goals, which nobody has done for 11 (?) years.

Then, there's the literal-definition-of-the-award factor; i.e., the player whose team would suffer the most in the standings if he were not there. This is obviously subjective and not easily measurable. I don't have time to do a deep-dive into it statistically (one would hope the voters will... but they probably won't), but I can do a very simple check of a few things:

Players' point-total as a percentage of team's overall goals:
43.3% -- McDavid (122/282)
39% -- Gaudreau (113/290)
34.4% -- Huberdeau (115/334)
34.2% -- Matthews (106/310)

Then, let's remove Power-plays from that:
Players' ES point-total as a percentage of team's overall ES goals:
38.8% -- Gaudreau (88/227)
37.2% -- McDavid (77/207)
33.2% -- Matthews (77/232)
28.1% -- Huberdeau (72/256)

Then:
Teams' total GF/GA with player on/off the ice:
+122 McDavid --- McDavid on: +79 McDavid off: -43 (Edmonton 282/246 McDavid 150/71)
+118 Gaudreau --- Gaudrea on: +103 Gaudreau off: -15 (Calgary 290/202 Gaudreau 155/52)
+73 Matthews --- Matthews on: +66 Matthews off: -7 (Toronto 310/251 Matthews 147/81)
+42 Huberdeau --- Huberdeau on: +70 Huberdeau off: +28 (Florida 334/236 Huberdeau 149/79)


Taking the bulk of these "most valuable to his team" things into consideration, I think McDavid is the favorite, but Gaudreau is just behind him. Both players' teams are overall in negative goal differentials when they are not on the ice. Edmonton, however, is a bad team when McDavid is not on the ice, overall. (The Flames are also mediocre at best with Gaudreau; in fact, somewhat poor.)

The above stat gives a little less credence to the Matthews' argument, and certainly less to Huberdeau's (which is largely a result of his team being so high scoring). The Panthers are still a strong positive team when Huberdeau is on the bench.


Finally, of course, there's this:
Plus / Minus (i.e., ES results overall)
+63 Gaudreau
+35 Huberdeau
+27 McDavid
+20 Matthews

Plus/Minus is more so a team result than a player one, but there's no denying Gaudreau (and his line) in Calgary are having an amazingly dominant season at even strength. Here, Huberdeau and McDavid look about what you'd expect, and maybe Matthews a little less so, though still good (as seen above, Matthews has been on the ice for the most goals against of the four).

____________________

Of course, the above stats aren't taking into account ice time, situational usage (though these four are surely all pretty similar?), etc., but I think it gives us some good info.


In my opinion, with 2-3 games left in the season, the Hart trophy should go to McDavid or Gaudreau. Considering McDavid is the scoring leader, and Gaudreau is near him and on the most dominant ES line (with a great team narrative, to boot), AND considering these two's teams depend on them the most to be competitive, they have the strongest arguments, I think.

I think the stats above, and my casual knowledge of him, almost rule-out Huberdeau. His performance is Hart worthy, certainly, but taking into account all factors, including value to team, I think he's clearly below the other three discussed here.

Matthews is in a middle-ground. I know there's the argument that "60-goals-gives-him-the-advantage", but does it? Historically, the Hart trophy very rarely goes to a goal-slanted scorer who isn't, say, 1st or 2nd in League scoring. Sure, Matthews might be 2nd (or 3rd) in scoring if he hadn't missed games, but the Hart doesn't take into account missed games for value. And while the Leafs certainly needed Matthews to be in 2nd place, they needed him less, I think, than the Oilers did McDavid or the Flames Gaudreau.


So, it's a tough one, but I lean towards McDavid or Gaudreau, trying to take all things into account. McDavid's disadvantage, of course, is voter fatigue. I wouldn't be upset if the final awards were:
Hart -- Gaudreau
Lindsay -- MacDavid
Richard -- Matthews

 

[The Panther]

False. Look at past winners. its common knowledge the original terms of reference are ignored.

There are numerous occasions in history where this wasn't the case. In recent years, you can just look at the differences between Hart and Lindsay winners.

As recently as 2018, was Taylor Hall the best player in the League? No. But it was a season (like this year) when there wasn't one standout candidate, and his team had a strong narrative.