Duffalufagus
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- Jan 4, 2017
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Gaudreau probably won’t even be a finalist. Which is ridiculous. Eastern bias is a real thing.
NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy
- Thread starter koyvoo
- Start date
I feel like more so with wingers, it’s all about optics. A winger either needs to win the art Ross or rocket, and if they don’t (hall) they need to have an insurmountable amount of points over second on their team, gaudreau is definitely worthy of the hart, just based on past winger winners, I don’t think he gets it.
Johnnybegood13
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- Jul 11, 2003
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Pulled this from CP
Points:
McDavid-110 (1st)
Huberdeau-108 (2nd)
Gaudreau-105 (3rd)
Matthews-102 (5th) (1st in goals)
Points per GP:
McDavid-1.47 (1st)
Matthews-1.46 (2nd)
Huberdeau-1.44 (3rd)
Gaudreau-1.40 (4th)
Points per 60/GP:
Gaudreau-4.578 (1st)
Huberdeau-4.469 (2nd)
Matthews-4.255 (4th)
McDavid-3.966 (10th)
ES points per 60:/GP
Gaudreau-4.309 (1st)
Huberdeau-4.039 (2nd)
Matthews-3.649 (6th)
McDavid-2.978 (25th)
ES points:
Gaudreau-83 (1st)
Matthews-74 (2nd)
Huberdeau-70 (3rd)
McDavid-68 (6th)
+/-
Gaudreau (1st) by a mile, rest don't count
He sure tics a lot of boxes
He is too busy being a defensive beast after putting up a sh**load of points for a 15+? game point streak lol. With a lot of GWG goals in there as well. And he is still tops. I would give it to Shesterkin (A joke he is not talked about) or Gaudreau personally.
I bet you $100 that someone scores 50 goals in a 50 game period in the next 30 years.
But the thing is that he hasn't actually missed 44 games this year though.
Missing games might hurt him but others have to step up.
Josi has fallen off he won't even be top 5 IMO,
McDavid/AM is still the race for 1,2 unless something really drastic happens and even then my bet is that most hart voters have probably made up their mind already.
Hockey Outsider
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- Jan 16, 2005
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There are 41 forwards with at least 40 points at 5-on-5. Here's how their teams have shot when they're on the ice (at 5-on-5) this season:
The Oilers have done a terrible job shooting when McDavid is on the ice. In case the argument is made that this is McDavid's fault, he's shooting around 11%, which isn't great, but it means the rest of his teammates are doing much worse than the number we see above.
If we compare this year's on-ice shooting percentage (at 5-on-5) to each players' average over the past three years, most of them (33 of 41) are up in 2022 - a sure sign that scoring has risen league-wide. Six more players are down by 1.1% or less. McDavid's teammates are shooting 3.1% worse this year compared to how they've done over the last three years (10.9%), which is by far the worst result of anyone on this list. (The team's shooting in PP situations is also worse this year, but not nearly to the same extent).
A ballpark calculation suggests that McDavid should have about 25 extra points at 5-on-5, if his team shot at the level they've done over the past three years. McDavid easily could be over 130 points at this point.
To be clear, I'm not saying that McDavid should get credit for those 25 extra points. You need to take the results as they are. But I think this helps explain why McDavid's season has felt underwhelming (even though he's still narrowly hanging onto the Art Ross) - his teammates have done an awful job shooting at five-on-five. I don't recall another season where an Art Ross candidate got so little help from their teammates (even Draisaitl, as shown above, has had much better support).
| Player | Games | 5v5 Points | On-Ice SH% |
| Johnny Gaudreau | 75 | 69 | 13.7% |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 69 | 50 | 13.3% |
| Michael Bunting | 76 | 58 | 13.2% |
| Robert Thomas | 66 | 47 | 13.1% |
| Mitchell Marner | 67 | 59 | 12.9% |
| Clayton Keller | 67 | 41 | 12.8% |
| Elias Lindholm | 75 | 45 | 12.7% |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 75 | 61 | 12.7% |
| Jordan Kyrou | 68 | 47 | 12.2% |
| Ivan Barbashev | 75 | 41 | 12.0% |
| Ryan Hartman | 75 | 46 | 12.0% |
| Auston Matthews | 70 | 64 | 11.9% |
| Kirill Kaprizov | 74 | 55 | 11.8% |
| Alexander Kerfoot | 76 | 42 | 11.7% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 72 | 45 | 11.6% |
| Alex Ovechkin | 73 | 45 | 11.5% |
| Steven Stamkos | 74 | 42 | 11.5% |
| Mats Zuccarello | 67 | 40 | 11.5% |
| Filip Forsberg | 63 | 42 | 11.0% |
| Tage Thompson | 74 | 41 | 10.9% |
| Matt Duchene | 72 | 42 | 10.9% |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 75 | 50 | 10.7% |
| Kevin Fiala | 75 | 47 | 10.6% |
| Jason Robertson | 67 | 46 | 10.5% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 59 | 47 | 10.5% |
| Nazem Kadri | 65 | 46 | 10.2% |
| Andre Burakovsky | 73 | 46 | 10.2% |
| Sam Reinhart | 72 | 40 | 10.0% |
| Leon Draisaitl | 75 | 52 | 10.0% |
| Dylan Larkin | 71 | 47 | 9.9% |
| Artemi Panarin | 71 | 44 | 9.8% |
| Joe Pavelski | 75 | 44 | 9.8% |
| Patrick Kane | 71 | 47 | 9.6% |
| Timo Meier | 70 | 51 | 9.6% |
| Jeff Skinner | 76 | 43 | 9.4% |
| Jesper Bratt | 70 | 47 | 9.3% |
| Jake Guentzel | 71 | 46 | 9.0% |
| J.T. Miller | 73 | 42 | 8.9% |
| Carter Verhaeghe | 74 | 44 | 8.7% |
| Kyle Connor | 73 | 44 | 8.2% |
| Connor McDavid | 75 | 49 | 7.8% |
The Oilers have done a terrible job shooting when McDavid is on the ice. In case the argument is made that this is McDavid's fault, he's shooting around 11%, which isn't great, but it means the rest of his teammates are doing much worse than the number we see above.
If we compare this year's on-ice shooting percentage (at 5-on-5) to each players' average over the past three years, most of them (33 of 41) are up in 2022 - a sure sign that scoring has risen league-wide. Six more players are down by 1.1% or less. McDavid's teammates are shooting 3.1% worse this year compared to how they've done over the last three years (10.9%), which is by far the worst result of anyone on this list. (The team's shooting in PP situations is also worse this year, but not nearly to the same extent).
A ballpark calculation suggests that McDavid should have about 25 extra points at 5-on-5, if his team shot at the level they've done over the past three years. McDavid easily could be over 130 points at this point.
To be clear, I'm not saying that McDavid should get credit for those 25 extra points. You need to take the results as they are. But I think this helps explain why McDavid's season has felt underwhelming (even though he's still narrowly hanging onto the Art Ross) - his teammates have done an awful job shooting at five-on-five. I don't recall another season where an Art Ross candidate got so little help from their teammates (even Draisaitl, as shown above, has had much better support).
Matthew's not in the lineup and the Leafs still look the same and win again.
You would think if someone is MVP their absence would be noticed.
You would think if someone is MVP their absence would be noticed.
Thanks for the info. All we needed to see.
This presumes that all of the scoring chances that happen for him at 5 vs. 5 are of the same quality and quantity every year. And that the 5 v. 5 play in general is same all the time.
This season he is going to hit his highest SAT of his career and also his SAT difference by far:
NHL Stats
The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.
www.nhl.com
With different linemates, perhaps his % is better but his SAT against is higher.
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Very cool. Now to add other non-cherry picked offensive stats that make Gaudreau look good:
Goals - 15th in league.
Power Play Points - 47th in league
Power Play Goals - 78th in league
Goals per game - 29th in league
Gaudreau is having a great season. It's a shame so many of his fans try to paint a biased picture of it by cherry picking stats to try and make him appear better than he is.
Even strength points are a product of overall points. And for overall points - he's currently 3rd. Points per game, he's in a 3-way tie for 5th place.
- Apr 27, 2005
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Tkachuk Norris
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- Jun 22, 2012
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Cherry picking stats?
Gaudreau is having the best season 5 on 5 in 30 years. That isn’t cherry picking stats. That’s just a statistical fact at this point.
In fact, cherry picking stats is looking at 1 stat, overall points or power play production, and not adding any context to it.
I could see AM winning unanimously or him not receiving a single 1st place vote, or anything in between. This stuff is always unpredictable
TheGoldenJet
Registered User
Ezpz
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- Apr 16, 2013
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Matthews deserves to be in the conversation but he shouldn't win with the amount of games he's now missing. You can't just say based on pace that he'd score 70 or whatever, as we saw his most recent three games were goalless. It's the same reason I don't think Cam Neely is a HOFer.
Huberdeau also deserves to be in the conversation, he's got the chance to win the Art Ross at this point.
McDrai also will get consideration. It's more voter fatigue that nobody is talking about them.
Josi's gone cold at the wrong time. He went from 100 point pace to 90 point pace very quickly.
traffic cone
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- May 12, 2011
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Maybe McDavid doesn’t go to the dirty areas without the puck as much so the other players around him have less good shooting options when they have the puck.
North Cole
♧ Lem
- Jan 22, 2017
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Yes, extrapolating stats always presumes something. It's not any different than extrapolating PPG, TOI, or anything else really. However, the on-ice SH% is very much the counter to the crowd that likes to adjust usage for their players.Thanks for the info. All we needed to see.
This presumes that all of the scoring chances that happen for him at 5 vs. 5 are of the same quality and quantity every year. And that the 5 v. 5 play in general is same all the time.
This season he is going to hit his highest SAT of his career and also his SAT difference by far:
NHL Stats
The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.
With different linemates, perhaps his % is better but his SAT against is higher.
McDavid is constantly clowned around here for his 5v5 TOI and his PP TOI. The result is that we get a lot of posters that want to extrapolate their players production onto McDavid's ice time and use that as the basis for their argument that they are "close" offensively. Conversely, we should also be able to adjust for the fact that his OISH% is like 30% lower than the guys he's still ahead of in the race. Pretty absurd that the finishing is so low and he's still winning.
This paints the picture that they actually aren't that close all things being equal.
His On-ice HDCF is 1/368 in the league for forwards over 500 minutes at 5v5, with 314, which shows that the puck actually gets into the danger area quite a lot with him on the ice.
Edit - had him two but that was out of all skaters, not forwards.
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No, if you watch him play the game of hockey on the white sheet of ice, he goes to those areas a lot. Interesting to see Bunting and Marner right at the top and people laugh when I say it helps that Mathews plays with those guys... Hell, If TJ Miller somehow sneaks the Canucks in I would even consider him a candidate.
Lindholm and Tkachuk also right at the top. Big credit to what McDavid has done. It is voter fatigue as well like somebody said. He will lose in years he deserves it.
As usual, what is your point?
"Translating" or "adjusting" anything is usually fraught with biases.
TOI among the very best forwards is meaningless.
Using a stat that is heavily reliant on who else is one the ice with you is also fraught with biases.
I don't see any reason to not look at simply the offensive numbers of the top Hart candidates which is very close. And I don't see any reason that any number of 5 -7 forwards cannot have a season that matches or betters McDavid's. It happens almost every season.
Duffalufagus
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Nope, not what I'm saying at all.
I said Vegas and oddsmakers don't try to predict winners, they try to drive money. Usually, a favorite is established early. The amount of money and the odds of that "favorite" winner predicts the line, the line moves when the money moves, not when another "favorite" challenges. The favorite will remain on top as long as the money is coming in for the favorite.
Take a prop bet on heads or tails, if heads is listed early as the favorite, and more money is placed on heads, it's not that Vegas believes heads has a better chance, both have an equal chance, but the more money means the odds move. This is just an example, might not be actual.
Zur En Arrh
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- Apr 16, 2022
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