NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[AcerComputer]

I think if Matthews breaks 65 goals, that should seal it. Bummer he missed the last two games, and was dry the previous 3. But 7 goals in 5 games is still very doable.

 

[thaman8765678]

I think if Matthews breaks 65 goals, that should seal it. Bummer he missed the last two games, and was dry the previous 3. But 7 goals in 5 games is still very doable.

He sounds like he could be out a while though. Hope he is back by playoffs, it's annoying to lose star players to injury.

 

[freecheese]

It’s Huberdeaus to lose at this point. Too many strong arguements to support his bid:

* points disparity on team
* Art Ross frontrunner
* on highest SRS team since prolly ‘96

 

[steierwrass]

It’s Huberdeaus to lose at this point. Too many strong arguements to support his bid:

* points disparity on team
* Art Ross frontrunner
* on highest SRS team since prolly ‘96

And argument against. He isn't the most important or the best player in his team.

 

[22FUTON9]

Based on level of play I think Matthews should win but the fact that he’s missed 7 games kind of makes his case difficult IMO

 

[daver]

I cannot remember there being four candidates among forwards being so close in offensive production and none of them having any clear "value" argument over the other.

Anyone not qualifying their Hart pick with that recognition shouldn't be take seriously. IMO, ES points, plus/minus, defensive play shouldn't be viewed as significant differentiators.

Huberdeau is the most valuable in terms of gap between him and the 2nd place scorer on his team, who plays on another line too but Barkov missed time which tempers that a bit. His team being an offensive powerhouse also tempers this a bit.

McDavid's value can be seen in the dropoff to the next best scorers on his team after Drai and he has been on the highest % of his team's goals.

Gaudreau's line is the most valuable this year and he is the most valuable on that line.

Matthew's arguably has the most support in Marner and on the rest of Leafs but his goalscoring adds value over the others.

 

[bobholly39]

I cannot remember there being four candidates among forwards being so close in offensive production and none of them having any clear "value" argument over the other.

2017-2018 season had a lot of very close candidates in the running for hart too.

McDavid (missed playoffs), Hall (he won), MacKinnon (probably could have won), Kucherov (led scoring all year, team safely in playoff spot, then slowed down a bit at end), Malkin (huge scoring spree in second half), Giroux, Kopitar.

I think all 7 of them had legitimate chances at winning the hart very late in the season, and were close for various reasons.

I think this season is very comparable to that one. I think individual seasons this year are stronger than most of those in 2017-2018, but in terms of being close at the top for forwards, I see a lot of parallels.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

2017-2018 season had a lot of very close candidates in the running for hart too.

McDavid (missed playoffs), Hall (he won), MacKinnon (probably could have won), Kucherov (led scoring all year, team safely in playoff spot, then slowed down a bit at end), Malkin (huge scoring spree in second half), Giroux, Kopitar.

I think all 7 of them had legitimate chances at winning the hart very late in the season, and were close for various reasons.

I think this season is very comparable to that one. I think individual seasons this year are stronger than most of those in 2017-2018, but in terms of being close at the top for forwards, I see a lot of parallels.

Biggest difference being that in 2018 we had a really weak hart winner, whereas this year there are several players across multiple positions just having insane years.

 

[Foppberg]

It'd be a shame if he didn't at least hit 60.

 

[Nadal On Clay]

This race will go down to the wire. Matthews is missing his 3rd straight game tonight and Toronto is currently 6-1 when he’s not in the lineup. All of the top candidates have pros and cons. It could really go to anyone between those 4 players:

McDavid
+ simply the best player
+ potential art ross

- teammate is 7 pts behind with 54 goals
- won it last season. The last back 2 back hart winner was Ovechkin in 09 when Crosby and Malkin were 2 and 3 in scoring and no one else had 100+ Pts.

Matthews
+ potential Richard + 60 goals
+ most complete player between the candidates (offense + defense)

- will only max out at 74 gp (Toronto is 6-1 when he’s not playing)
- has a linemate in the top 10 scoring

Huberdeau
+ can potentially set the assists record by a winger + potential art ross
+ most productive forward on a top 2 team in the league (by 20+ pts)

- might not be the actual “best” player on his team or the “most valuable”
- “only” 30 goals

Shesterkin
+ by far the best goalie (leads in sv% and gaa)
+ his team has an atrocious record without him playing vs playoff teams

- low GP numbers for a potential hart winning goaltender
- is a goaltender (lots of forwards and dmans are having outstanding seasons)

 

[AD1066]

This race will go down to the wire. Matthews is missing his 3rd straight game tonight and Toronto is currently 6-1 when he’s not in the lineup. All of the top candidates have pros and cons. It could really go to anyone between those 4 players:

McDavid
+ simply the best player
+ potential art ross

- teammate is 7 pts behind with 54 goals
- won it last season. The last back 2 back hart winner was Ovechkin in 09 when Crosby and Malkin were 2 and 3 in scoring and no one else had 100+ Pts.

Matthews
+ potential Richard + 60 goals
+ most complete player between the candidates (offense + defense)

- will only max out at 74 gp (Toronto is 6-1 when he’s not playing)
- has a linemate in the top 10 scoring

Huberdeau
+ can potentially set the assists record by a winger + potential art ross
+ most productive forward on a top 2 team in the league (by 20+ pts)

- might not be the actual “best” player on his team or the “most valuable”
- “only” 30 goals

Shesterkin
+ by far the best goalie (leads in sv% and gaa)
+ his team has an atrocious record without him playing vs playoff teams

- low GP numbers for a potential hart winning goaltender
- is a goaltender (lots of forwards and dmans are having outstanding seasons)

Good post and I'd also argue Gaudreau deserves consideration.

 

[Nadal On Clay]

Good post and I'd also argue Gaudreau deserves consideration.

I think right now Gaudreau is definitely up there in the next bunch of players with the likes of Josi, Ovechkin, Kaprizov etc. I just don’t think he has separated himself enough from either his linemates/teammates or league wide in general in any scoring category in particular to get attention over the players I mentioned. He would definitely have a case if he somehow manages to win the art Ross though.

 

[McShogun99]

This is how I see the voting going for the Hart.

1. Matthews
2. Huberdeau
3. Mcdavid
4. Shesterkin
5. Josi
6. Gaudreau

This is what I think it should be.

1. Shesterkin
2. Gaudreau
3. Matthews
4. Josi
5. Mcdavid
6. Huberdeau

 

[Fantomas]

Should be Shesty.

 

[Peeri]

This is how I see the voting going for the Hart.

1. Matthews
2. Huberdeau
3. Mcdavid
4. Shesterkin
5. Josi
6. Gaudreau

This is what I think it should be.

1. Shesterkin
2. Gaudreau
3. Matthews
4. Josi
5. Mcdavid
6. Huberdeau

Are you sure you are Edmonton fan? Your not like the others.

 

[McShogun99]

Are you sure you are Edmonton fan? Your not like the others.

Mcdavid is clearly the best in the league but expectations are so high for him that he needs to lap the competition to win a Hart. If this was a Lindsay then the results would be different. Shesterkin is putting up prime Hasek numbers, Gaudreau put up the most 5x5 points in 30 years, Josi is putting up points that very few Dmen in NHL history have put up, Matthews will be one of the few players to score 60 goals in the last 30 years and Huberdeau broke the LW assist record and might win the Art Ross. This is such a crazy year and any of those 6 would win in any other year.

 

[Dust]

In the end even though people have been bickering back and forth for 28 pages... there isn't really a bad choice amongst the top 5 or 6. It might not be the person you want to win personally, but it's hard to argue with all the great compelling cases this year.

 

[Duffalufagus]

I think right now Gaudreau is definitely up there in the next bunch of players with the likes of Josi, Ovechkin, Kaprizov etc. I just don’t think he has separated himself enough from either his linemates/teammates or league wide in general in any scoring category in particular to get attention over the players I mentioned. He would definitely have a case if he somehow manages to win the art Ross though.

Gaudreau has scored at even strength at a pace not seen since the mid 90’s. Also leads the competition (by a mile) in +/- and is at the top of the league in primary points. The delta between him and the players 3 and 5 points ahead of him are secondary powerplay assists.

He is in the top tier, not the second tier.

 

[Nadal On Clay]

Gaudreau has scored at even strength at a pace not seen since the mid 90’s. Also leads the competition (by a mile) in +/- and is at the top of the league in primary points. The delta between him and the players 3 and 5 points ahead of him are secondary powerplay assists.

He is in the top tier, not the second tier.

And how exactly are these arguments worthy in terms of being the “most valuable”? As far as I know, an even strength point is worth as much as a power play point.

As for the +/-, he leads Lindholm by 4 and Tkachuk by 7. I won’t argue with you about the tier he’s on, but if you place him on the 1st tier, he’s definitely at the bottom of it, at least right now.

 

[2023FriendshipTour]

And how exactly are these arguments worthy in terms of being the “most valuable”? As far as I know, an even strength point is worth as much as a power play point.

As for the +/-, he leads Lindholm by 4 and Tkachuk by 7. I won’t argue with you about the tier he’s on, but if you place him on the 1st tier, he’s definitely at the bottom of it, at least right now.

How would he be on the bottom of it? Makes 0 sense to say that.

 

[Nadal On Clay]

How would he be on the bottom of it? Makes 0 sense to say that.

It just means he has less of an argument than the 4 other players I mentioned.

 

[Duffalufagus]

And how exactly are these arguments worthy in terms of being the “most valuable”? As far as I know, an even strength point is worth as much as a power play point.

As for the +/-, he leads Lindholm by 4 and Tkachuk by 7. I won’t argue with you about the tier he’s on, but if you place him on the 1st tier, he’s definitely at the bottom of it, at least right now.

Gaudreau is a career season maker. Look at his body of work. Those guys were pedestrian when they didn’t play with him.

And, anyone who doesn’t differentiate an even strength point from a pp point shouldn’t be taken seriously. The other team has one less player on the ice. Not as impressive. Ernie and Burt could teach you that.

 

[WatchfulElm]

They should do like the Oscars and double the size of the nominees list for the main award.
Because this year, there's definitely 6 players who deserve consideration.

 

[freecheese]

If Huberdeau wins the Art Ross while Florida wins President’s Trophy, then he’ll probably win it and it’ll be much deserved. Otherwise, I would give it to McDavid with Matthews 3rd.

 

[Nadal On Clay]

Gaudreau is a career season maker. Look at his body of work. Those guys were pedestrian when they didn’t play with him.

And, anyone who doesn’t differentiate an even strength point from a pp point shouldn’t be taken seriously. The other team has one less player on the ice. Not as impressive. Ernie and Burt could teach you that.

An even strength point and a powerplay point brings the same value to a team. It gets you a goal.

As for the bolded, you can say the same about literally every player I mentioned in my initial post.