Nashville Predators talk - The offseason.

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
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If you don't have top end talent to balance out the lack of production guys like Smith, McCarron, etc, you will never go far. You can't have a 1/3 of your forwards be offensive black holes. One of them in the lineup is fine. Four of them, not so much.
Or, 4 of them in the lineup is ok if you are fully rebuilding/tanking and there are literally no prospects in your system yet who are even close to the NHL. You are just filling out a lineup card while you tank. Ok. But we had Parssinen, Tomasino, and Afanaseyev in Milwaukee at the same time.
 

Gh24

Registered User
Feb 12, 2014
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If you don't have top end talent to balance out the lack of production guys like Smith, McCarron, etc, you will never go far. You can't have a 1/3 of your forwards be offensive black holes. One of them in the lineup is fine. Four of them, not so much.
I get your point and agree to it for most part, but they have decent numbers for 4th liners. Jankowski actually had 15 points in 32 GP. That's two more points than Glass had in more (41) GP and not far from Tomasino's 20 in 41.

Novak had 45 in 71
Evangelista 39 in 80
Sissons 35 in 81
Sherwood 27 in 68

Our top line is combined 0.97 PPG with Forsberg leading with 94 in 82. That's not too bad considering only 27 players had over 1.00 PPG. Sure some teams have more than one of them, but our first line had a pretty decent scoring.

It's our secondary scoring that's lacking. I feel like our 2nd line scoring needs to be closer to 0.7 PPG (for reference Novak is 0.63 with 45 points in 71).

Like you said, we need more top end talent. I completely agree. I just don't think McCarrons and Smiths on the 4th line are the issue at all. If you reduce ice-time for today's 3rd liners their production is likely going down too.
 
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glenngineer

Registered User
Jan 27, 2010
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I get your point and agree to it for most part, but they have decent numbers for 4th liners. Jankowski actually had 15 points in 32 GP. That's two more points than Glass had in more (41) GP and not far from Tomasino's 20 in 41.

Novak had 45 in 71
Evangelista 39 in 80
Sissons 35 in 81
Sherwood 27 in 68

Our top line is combined 0.97 PPG with Forsberg leading with 94 in 82. That's not too bad considering only 27 players had over 1.00 PPG. Sure some teams have more than one of them, but our first line had a pretty decent scoring.

It's our secondary scoring that's lacking. I feel like our 2nd line scoring needs to be closer to 0.7 PPG (for reference Novak is 0.63 with 45 points in 71).

Like you said, we need more top end talent. I completely agree. I just don't think McCarrons and Smiths on the 4th line are the issue at all. If you reduce ice-time for today's 3rd liners their production is likely going down too.
Everything you say is conditional. They're production for 4th liners isn't too bad. Our 1st line production isn't bad considering.

The way the roster is built in general doesn't work. If we had a top 9 that could all chip in 50-60 points a year, that's a different story. We don't. If you do have that, your fourth line has to put up 3rd line type of numbers.

I've done the math. To compensate for lack of true 1st line forwards, you have to have 3 2nd lines and 1 3rd line OR you have to construct your roster where you have a traditional top 6 and bottom 6. The variance between these two models is negligible by like 1 or 2 goals per year.
 

Predsanddead24

Registered User
Mar 7, 2019
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The Markstrom of 21-22 looks like an aberration though. He carried the load, had a career season in SV%, and they won a lot of games. Then the playoffs came and he was a vapor trail in net.

If the return for him was a 1st and a scrub/prospect, Saros should net a lot more than that.
The problem is there just has never really been much of a trade market for premium goalies. Most teams (rightly or wrongly) seem to prefer giving up lesser assets for a lesser goalie versus giving up top assets for a top goalie. So while Saros may be way better than Markstrom the return probably doesn't scale equally.
 

Kat Predator

Registered User
Nov 28, 2019
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It seems like any way you slice the data, our #1 line was a #1 line. Career best (or near) years for the 3 of them. They are certainly in the top 32 lines in terms of goal production. #2 in the NHL in total goals.

After that it falls off a cliff. Our next best 3 player combination is 3rd line (lower than 64) and everything else is much worse. Part of that is juggling so particular trifectas got blown up too often to pile up large numbers of goals. Part of it is we iced guys who just couldn't score much. Overall we were 10th in the NHL in total goals scored, but that top line carried the offense and punched above its weight.
 

glenngineer

Registered User
Jan 27, 2010
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Franklin, TN
It seems like any way you slice the data, our #1 line was a #1 line. Career best (or near) years for the 3 of them. They are certainly in the top 32 lines in terms of goal production. #2 in the NHL in total goals.

After that it falls off a cliff. Our next best 3 player combination is 3rd line (lower than 64) and everything else is much worse. Part of that is juggling so particular trifectas got blown up too often to pile up large numbers of goals. Part of it is we iced guys who just couldn't score much. Overall we were 10th in the NHL in total goals scored, but that top line carried the offense and punched above its weight.
1st line had a great year. Outside of Forsberg, would you consider ROR or Gus top 3 talents? They had career years and two of them won’t be able to repeat it.

Add two top 3 talents to play with Fil, this allows ROR and Gus to move down to the 2nd line where they truly belong and now you start to have the shape of a roster that makes sense. Heck, let the two additions play with Evangelista.

I’ll use Tampa, Florida and Colorado as examples. Their Cup years or cup runs, the top 9 is how you want to construct your roster.

I’m interested to see what BT does over the next couple of weeks.
 

Gh24

Registered User
Feb 12, 2014
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Everything you say is conditional. They're production for 4th liners isn't too bad. Our 1st line production isn't bad considering.

The way the roster is built in general doesn't work. If we had a top 9 that could all chip in 50-60 points a year, that's a different story. We don't. If you do have that, your fourth line has to put up 3rd line type of numbers.

I've done the math. To compensate for lack of true 1st line forwards, you have to have 3 2nd lines and 1 3rd line OR you have to construct your roster where you have a traditional top 6 and bottom 6. The variance between these two models is negligible by like 1 or 2 goals per year.
I'm afraid if you put your Tomasinos on defensive roles do they ever develop into the scorers we hope for? Would they end up like Tolvanen, confused about their role in the lineup? If you have your Watsons or Afanasievs who could potentially be scoring line power forwards you want to give them the opportunity to play that role and if they don't have what it takes to do that on NHL level they may end up being your Smiths and McCarrons, but they need to be given the chance to play more than 10-12 minutes a night on a defensive role. That's why you have your 4th liners on a 4th liner pay.

Throw McCarron, Smith and Jankowski out now and some of the kids you put on their roles becomes new McCarrons and Smiths. Except with some growing pain between now and then. Surely they could score a bit more, but probably give up more as well and as they develop into their new defensive roles they start to do it at the expense of offense. Taking more safe approach to each play.

Or am I missing something on your point?

I understand and agree that we need more scoring. I just don't think the solution should be to get more of it out of 4th line. They're the heart and sould guys who set the example defensively. I think their efforts carry much more value to the development of the kids than people give them credit for.
 
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herzausstein

Registered User
Aug 31, 2014
7,138
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West Virginia
And Saros is a .913 and 2.73 over the last 3 and I don't think anyone would consider that a haul around here. Also I've seen very few NJ fans that think Bahl is going to be a 2nd pair guy.
Saros is also 5 years younger than Markstrom. Saros' "down year" is better than all but 1 season Markstrom has had in the last 4. Of course we wouldnt consider that a haul. The value of a goalie already at the age where goalies tend to fall off a cliff who only has 1 season in the past 4 where he was considered a top 10 starter (the other 3 - 2 in the bottom 10, 1 at the bottom of the middle 10) should be much less than one that has several prime years left with 3 of the last 4 seasons being top 10 and 1 in the middle 10.

I never did understand the hype around markstrom. He hasnt been consistently good since 2020.
 
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Roman Yoshi

#164303
Aug 16, 2009
10,826
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Franklin, TN
I mean the way you said it originally it didn't sound like you were calling it out, it sounded like someone that was misinformed about a trade you thought happened but didn't. You didn't say you heard Markstrom was being traded, you said " now that Markstrom is in New Jersey " which is why everyone was questioning if you were smoking something.

If you had said you had heard it the reaction would have been different.

I'll give you you that, but hopefully that clears it up

What ? WHAT IS IT? What are you hearing??? Spill it!!
I haven't heard anything imminent
 
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Kat Predator

Registered User
Nov 28, 2019
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1st line had a great year. Outside of Forsberg, would you consider ROR or Gus top 3 talents? They had career years and two of them won’t be able to repeat it.
Yes. I closed with "they punched above their weight". But the opening point was they produced as well as any other #1 line last season. The numbers are the numbers.
Add two top 3 talents to play with Fil, this allows ROR and Gus to move down to the 2nd line where they truly belong and now you start to have the shape of a roster that makes sense. Heck, let the two additions play with Evangelista.
Sure. We'd be better off if we had 1 or 3 more great players. Is anyone saying otherwise?
I’ll use Tampa, Florida and Colorado as examples. Their Cup years or cup runs, the top 9 is how you want to construct your roster.
Our top players are exiting their primes at this point. No question. Management also hasn't telegraphed (1 year) what they're going to do as yet. (I'll judge actions over talking.) Last season didn't answer enough questions on our pipeline [Ed: or maybe it did and our pipeline is trash] and I'm in agreement that flooding the zone with marginal NHL talent isn't a great plan.
I’m interested to see what BT does over the next couple of weeks.
Yep. It will be interesting for sure.
 
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herzausstein

Registered User
Aug 31, 2014
7,138
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West Virginia
Forsberg- ROR - Nyquist

Forsberg has historically been a 1st line level talent but has really stepped it up.

ROR was one at one point but fell off a bit. Last year he showed he can still be one even if it is just a low end 1st line talent.

Nyquist is on the edge of what would be considered a top line talent in point production. Looking at his 21-22 season he was top 120 forwards for points and top 120 forwards in points/game for players that played atleast 60 games. Like RoR, Nyquist would be a low end 1st line player that youd preferably have on the 2nd line.
 

BigFatCat999

First Fubu and now Pred303. !@#$! you cancer
Apr 23, 2007
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What ? WHAT IS IT? What are you hearing??? Spill it!!

Just listening to news reports, and the voices in my head saying "oh, 2+2 might equal this"

My prediction: Saros to Toronto for the rights to claim the 1950 Stanley Cup. Your Nashville Predators are now OFFICIALLY Stanley Cup Champions, hang the banner!

That would be fun....
 

bdub24

iNsErT bAnNeR jOkE hErE
Sponsor
Mar 4, 2013
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Just listening to news reports, and the voices in my head saying "oh, 2+2 might equal this"
IMG_5125.jpeg
 

Roman Yoshi

#164303
Aug 16, 2009
10,826
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Franklin, TN
So whats in the works
I think it's all the stuff we already know.

We know the Preds want a big blue liner or two. There's interest in all the major names.

Based on something I've heard, Ottawa kicked the tires or has kicked the tires on Ullmark and is the frontrunner for that.

I maintain that Columbus and Carolina are the most likely destinations for Saros. Do not believe Toronto is in the mix at this particular time.

Again, could be wrong but get that vibe.

A Necas for Saros deal makes a lot of sense for the Preds, but doesn't really make sense for Carolina because they already have a young goaltender for the future.

What I could see is a 3 way deal that brings Anderson and Necas to Nashville and Saros and young, cheap players that can contribute now. Like Novak or Tomasino with the third team getting Saros.

BFC: any news in particular got you all excited?

My personal opinion (not what I want per se) is Pesce and Stephenson are Preds next year each at around $6.25.
 

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