Nashville Predators talk - The offseason.

weeze

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May 2, 2011
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I would much rather trade some of our wealth of assets for a "Has problems but could be a game-changer" type forward a la Zegras or Marner than bring in Stephenson on a 6x6. We have a ton of space, I'd do a 6Mx3y deal, but don't like the idea of paying 2C money to a proven non-2C for that long.
I thought the team was supposed to be getting younger... Another 30yo is not that. We are already one of the oldest teams in the league. It is starting to sound and possibly look like the same old Preds. What is actually different? We need/want a true 1C and/or top 3 but hey lets bring on more older culture guys and continue to stay in the mushy middle because we make the PO's and we just can't get any of the top young players to come to Nashville. :facepalm:
 

Gh24

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Feb 12, 2014
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It's always an issue if you are overpaying your 3C by 3-4 million a season, I don't care how good anyone else plays.
What if you need that guy to be your 2C for the first 4 years of that contract? What if we make a deep run in the playoffs with him as 2C and our prospects gain valuable experience and eventually take over the top 6 duties on their bridge deals after couple of buyout penalties have just expired? Is it still an issue?
 

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
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What if you need that guy to be your 2C for the first 4 years of that contract? What if we make a deep run in the playoffs with him as 2C and our prospects gain valuable experience and eventually take over the top 6 duties on their bridge deals after couple of buyout penalties have just expired? Is it still an issue?
I think it's only an issue in the specifics. In that our team is probably not close to a "deep run in the playoffs"... particularly when the 2C is Chandler Stephenson specifically.

Now, maybe "a miracle happens" and somehow Stephenson actually would excel and help lead that charge. (Nobody thought Nyquist would do what he did last season). But... I think it would an issue to bank on that happening. The odds are stacked against it. :dunno:

If you make a bad gamble, but it pays off anyway, nobody will complain in hindsight. Just... it's highly unlikely to pay off, so maybe there are better bets out there?
 
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token grinder

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Someone aways back said you add Stephenson if you are 2-3 pieces away.
Another said the roster is supposed to get younger.

Maybe I see both?

I felt like I was watching an inconsistent team last year. Why? Skill and Youth. We need more skill...we need the young players to be consistent. Just so happens they have skill-Evangalista, Glass, Parsinen, Tomasino, Novak.

I fully expect ZLH, Fedor and Egor A. to get time this season. Kemell I want too, but we will see. To be that small, you have to score or become Rocco Grimaldi. I think these guys will rotate in and out a bit but two will on our roster permanently by choice, not injury by mid year.

If two stick, the skill and talent in the lineup is much better as it will push two plugs to the press box (in theory) I would expect half our top nine those two , evangelista and one of the other inconsistent kids to make up half the top nine. I'm not disappointed in that. This isn't a video game where you can win with 12 21 year old forwards.

Personally, unless we can trade Saros for Marner, or rather Saros and a Tommasino (or one of the other inconsistents) and a rando mid level pick, I offer Saros a 4x8, a 5x7 and a 6x6 deal and if he takes one, great. If not he can chase that bag with whomever Trotz trades for what we don't need--bags of pucks and low first round picks.

Free Agency-I fully expect Trotz to give the richest D deal to replace McD. That is more of an issue to me than our forwards. Skjei, OEL, Waker, Roy, Martinez...none would surprise me. We need someone to eat minutes. Josi is Josi. The other 5 aren't ready for 22-24 minutes a night. In spurts Fabbro, Lauzon, Stastney and Carrier could...but they aren't top pair guys. I don't know of a FA that is honestly.

If I had the pencil....and fantasy GM here, I send Askarov, Glass, Tomasino, Parsinen and one of the plugs if they want them (Smith, Jankowski, McCarron our first this year and next to Ottawa for Brady Tkachuck and Jacob Chychrun (signed beyond next year) If Askarov is supposed to be what everyone think he is he is worth Chychrun+ That plus and 3 potential middle six and two 1st round darts is enough for Tkachuck. Fantasy land though....

Inject into my veins
Nyquist-ROR-Forsberg
Tkachuck-Fedor/FA 6 mil center-ZLH
Smith-Sissons-rotating kid that can't generate offence with two plugs
Evangelista-Novak-Zucker
 

Bringer of Jollity

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Oct 20, 2011
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Someone aways back said you add Stephenson if you are 2-3 pieces away.
Another said the roster is supposed to get younger.

Maybe I see both?

I felt like I was watching an inconsistent team last year. Why? Skill and Youth. We need more skill...we need the young players to be consistent. Just so happens they have skill-Evangalista, Glass, Parsinen, Tomasino, Novak.

I fully expect ZLH, Fedor and Egor A. to get time this season. Kemell I want too, but we will see. To be that small, you have to score or become Rocco Grimaldi. I think these guys will rotate in and out a bit but two will on our roster permanently by choice, not injury by mid year.

If two stick, the skill and talent in the lineup is much better as it will push two plugs to the press box (in theory) I would expect half our top nine those two , evangelista and one of the other inconsistent kids to make up half the top nine. I'm not disappointed in that. This isn't a video game where you can win with 12 21 year old forwards.

Personally, unless we can trade Saros for Marner, or rather Saros and a Tommasino (or one of the other inconsistents) and a rando mid level pick, I offer Saros a 4x8, a 5x7 and a 6x6 deal and if he takes one, great. If not he can chase that bag with whomever Trotz trades for what we don't need--bags of pucks and low first round picks.

Free Agency-I fully expect Trotz to give the richest D deal to replace McD. That is more of an issue to me than our forwards. Skjei, OEL, Waker, Roy, Martinez...none would surprise me. We need someone to eat minutes. Josi is Josi. The other 5 aren't ready for 22-24 minutes a night. In spurts Fabbro, Lauzon, Stastney and Carrier could...but they aren't top pair guys. I don't know of a FA that is honestly.

If I had the pencil....and fantasy GM here, I send Askarov, Glass, Tomasino, Parsinen and one of the plugs if they want them (Smith, Jankowski, McCarron our first this year and next to Ottawa for Brady Tkachuck and Jacob Chychrun (signed beyond next year) If Askarov is supposed to be what everyone think he is he is worth Chychrun+ That plus and 3 potential middle six and two 1st round darts is enough for Tkachuck. Fantasy land though....

Inject into my veins
Nyquist-ROR-Forsberg
Tkachuck-Fedor/FA 6 mil center-ZLH
Smith-Sissons-rotating kid that can't generate offence with two plugs
Evangelista-Novak-Zucker
Yeah, Askarov, a cap dump, a plug, and two middle 6 prospects don't get a Brady Tkachuk, much less both (unless you are treating Chychrun as a cap dump).
 

Kat Predator

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Nov 28, 2019
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Which, lets be honest, is the most likely scenario. Parssinen could still pan out, but he's probably best on the 3rd line right now. Novak is just a winger trying to play center, and Glass is almost a buyout candidate
I don't think Parssinen fits this gegenpresse system. He could be following in Tomasino's footsteps. I've never though Novak was an NHL center. At best he's an undersized, underpowered 2C playmaker, who is a better fit on the wing or on a team with plenty of stud centers to hide his limitations. The young Cody Glass would've been a good fit for the gegenpresse system but injuries and a lack of trust/confidence nip that in the bud. He has a higher ceiling than someone like Beauvillier in terms of talent, but things just have not clicked for him. I doubt he gets a chance here.
 
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101st_fan

I taught Yoda
Oct 22, 2005
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The goal should always be to get better. Younger is secondary to the overall goal of actually winning. Members here keep overlooking that very simple concept. If Tomasino was a better top six option, he'd be playing .... putting him in because he's younger is asinine. Beat out the players who are in the spots you want no matter your age.


Back to the logical fallacies.
 

Armourboy

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Jan 20, 2014
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What if you need that guy to be your 2C for the first 4 years of that contract? What if we make a deep run in the playoffs with him as 2C and our prospects gain valuable experience and eventually take over the top 6 duties on their bridge deals after couple of buyout penalties have just expired? Is it still an issue?
If he is going to be our 2C for the next 4 years, we probably aren't making any deep runs in the playoffs. Sorry but I just don't see him and ROR as a combo that does that.
 
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Gh24

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Feb 12, 2014
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I think it's only an issue in the specifics. In that our team is probably not close to a "deep run in the playoffs"... particularly when the 2C is Chandler Stephenson specifically.

Now, maybe "a miracle happens" and somehow Stephenson actually would excel and help lead that charge. (Nobody thought Nyquist would do what he did last season). But... I think it would an issue to bank on that happening. The odds are stacked against it. :dunno:

If you make a bad gamble, but it pays off anyway, nobody will complain in hindsight. Just... it's highly unlikely to pay off, so maybe there are better bets out there?

If he is going to be our 2C for the next 4 years, we probably aren't making any deep runs in the playoffs. Sorry but I just don't see him and ROR as a combo that does that.

We're closer to having multiple wingers take the next big step than any of our centers, so I definitely see a scenario where signing Stephenson could end up being benecifial, even if he eventually became a 3C

I'd obviously prefer someone like Necas or a short term "Stephenson" via trade. All I'm saying is I believe signing Stephenson would make the team better while still allowing our up and coming players to have their ice time.

The cost of that could be paying a 3C $6M at some point, but I believe it's manageable. And besides, ROR deal expires in three years, so if Stephenson was still 3C after that we're probably in a good spot. In an unfortunate situation however Stephenson could be our best center at that time
 

Roman Yoshi

#164303
Aug 16, 2009
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Franklin, TN
Maybe Co_y Franson will be a better scout than player?
Honestly I love him as a scout. Guy had some real talent. Just not defensive talent. Franson was one of those guys in limited role that shines on getting shots through traffic and setting guys up on the PP. I think he will be a better scout than player.
 

101st_fan

I taught Yoda
Oct 22, 2005
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Near where sand and waves meet.
Right now the team needs 2 forwards, 2 defenders and a goalie just to get to a full 20 player roster .... and adding $18mil AAV gets the team just to the cap midpoint. Calling up the kids doesn't even get the team to the lower limit ... there has to be a fairly sizeable signing, meaning a vet, to make the numbers work.
 

Roman Yoshi

#164303
Aug 16, 2009
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The more you think about it, the more you really have to wonder what the management team wants out of the team for next season.

We have the 6th most cap space of any team with no "cornerstone" players needing deals heading into next season. We have an all-star goaltender who needs an extension after next year, but that's pretty much it long term. And we have one of the best goaltending prospects in the league waiting in the wings.

We are in the bottom ten in the league in terms of NHL centers with only top six center and one elite 4th line center in Sissons.

We have too many bottom six forwards signed to make room for the young guys.

We have one elite defenseman and only three 5-6 d-men under contract for next season, one of which the coaching staff clearly doesn't trust (Fabbro).

We have Cody Glass, who was a promising prospect, but hasn't panned out and Tomasino, who was also promising but has lost favor.

We have plethora of bottom six forwards prospects but no elite talen outside of our goaltender. I worry Kemell is Tolvanen 2.0.

We have so many draft picks that could stock our prospect pool or be moved to improve the roster now.

We stand at a true crossroads: do we let the youth play or do we try to compete? We have the cap space to truly be a spender in free agency. We have a couple of good assets we could package, but not sure we have anything that could land elite talent coming back the other way.

Honestly have no idea what the plan is at this point. So many ways Trotz and team can take this. One thing I do wonder about is if we overreacted to the playoff run in locking up the bottom six forwards instead of keeping those roster spots open.
 

101st_fan

I taught Yoda
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Near where sand and waves meet.
$18mil to get to the cap midpoint means Trotz can chase Marner, Stamkos, Guentzel, whoever ...... while still entering the season with Saros on the roster ... pushing that decision to keep or trade him until after Askarov has more NHL time to see if he is ready for a 1 or 1A type role yet. Then there is another $3mil in dead cap space freeing up next summer ($4mil for the Joey retention - the $1mil increase in Duchene's buyout number)
 

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
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We're closer to having multiple wingers take the next big step than any of our centers, so I definitely see a scenario where signing Stephenson could end up being benecifial, even if he eventually became a 3C

I'd obviously prefer someone like Necas or a short term "Stephenson" via trade. All I'm saying is I believe signing Stephenson would make the team better while still allowing our up and coming players to have their ice time.

The cost of that could be paying a 3C $6M at some point, but I believe it's manageable. And besides, ROR deal expires in three years, so if Stephenson was still 3C after that we're probably in a good spot. In an unfortunate situation however Stephenson could be our best center at that time
So paying Stephenson $6M for next season might indeed make our team better. Next season. I'm not sure we're really a "99 pt team" regardless, although let's see who else we sign, but what real "bump" in competitiveness does Stephenson represent for that 1 season? A few points? Slightly better odds of making the playoffs? These are not bad things, for sure. I do agree he would make our team better next season.

I just think the downside of paying him $6M for seasons past the next one could be far more impactful... in a negative way. We might not be able to use that $6M to get even better in the future, or to target needs which arise when we are (hopefully) becoming more seriously competitive, at a future time when we're spending $6M on our #3C. People have complained in the past about paying Sissons less than half of that. I don't agree with those complaints, mind you, but basically we're looking at more than double that for what is likely to be a similar level of player.

I don't think there's that much of a gap between what guys like Parssinen/Novak/Glass/Svechkov could do if you really committed to them. It's kind of the same as the argument with "kids vs. veteran depth guys" in general. It'd be a different thing if there was a large gap in performance. But I just don't believe there is. And that's in the immediate sense. The kids are very nearly as good NOW (maybe better if they were granted some leeway to build confidence), so it's basically self-defeating to choose veteran options who don't have any upside to help improve the team. It's nice to at least be a 99-pt/Round 1 playoff team, I suppose. But it's not going to be veteran tweeners who take us to any next level beyond that. Similarly on up if we make our UFA signings with a focus on a 1- or 2-year minor improvement that is likely to have a declining and negative impact on years beyond the next 1 or 2.
 
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Armourboy

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Jan 20, 2014
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The more you think about it, the more you really have to wonder what the management team wants out of the team for next season.

We have the 6th most cap space of any team with no "cornerstone" players needing deals heading into next season. We have an all-star goaltender who needs an extension after next year, but that's pretty much it long term. And we have one of the best goaltending prospects in the league waiting in the wings.

We are in the bottom ten in the league in terms of NHL centers with only top six center and one elite 4th line center in Sissons.

We have too many bottom six forwards signed to make room for the young guys.

We have one elite defenseman and only three 5-6 d-men under contract for next season, one of which the coaching staff clearly doesn't trust (Fabbro).

We have Cody Glass, who was a promising prospect, but hasn't panned out and Tomasino, who was also promising but has lost favor.

We have plethora of bottom six forwards prospects but no elite talen outside of our goaltender. I worry Kemell is Tolvanen 2.0.

We have so many draft picks that could stock our prospect pool or be moved to improve the roster now.

We stand at a true crossroads: do we let the youth play or do we try to compete? We have the cap space to truly be a spender in free agency. We have a couple of good assets we could package, but not sure we have anything that could land elite talent coming back the other way.

Honestly have no idea what the plan is at this point. So many ways Trotz and team can take this. One thing I do wonder about is if we overreacted to the playoff run in locking up the bottom six forwards instead of keeping those roster spots open.
I think the problem is at least as things stand today Trotz has to be very careful he doesn't get sidetracked on whatever his plan was. It looks like based on what happened over the course of the season that it did happen. Most of the kids got shifted down or benched and the roster was filled with older players and tweeners.

It felt like the Vets were brought in for a culture change and to help the young guys develop. It felt like everyone was on board with that. However, get into the season and the Vets are all playing together, all the kids are playing together, and all the tweeners are playing together.

Sitting here today from my perspective is that all this season did was muddy the waters. You have a group of youth you need to play, but because of the previous season you have now created an expectation that we are going to keep trying to make the playoffs. I said it during last season that I got going for the playoffs, but this past year out of all of them the fans were going to give Trotz free reign to stink. We didn't, but now what? Now you are going into year two and you either burn a bunch of cap and go for it again, or you don't and likely stink, but now you've burnt the honeymoon period and it could hurt.

Now I'm not a tank at all costs kind of fan, but I am one that thinks if you get there naturally, the fans already have the mindset that things might be down for a couple of years that you take that opportunity when you can to at least take a shot at what could be elite players. But here we are, drafting mid pack again, we have a bunch of cap we could spend but most of those available players are older and not really what you want if you want the team to more or less reset.

I think the smart play may be to overpay on a couple of youngish guys that may be available, but then keep the rest of your cap to see what may be available the following season and maybe part of that is you trade off some of your younger guys that you don't think will make it. In my mind in either case is what you don't do is throw 6-7 year deals at aging players and overpay them to get them at the same time just to fill a roster spot.

As far as the final question, no signing guys like McCarron and Smith aren't a problem. You don't have anyone to fill McCarron's spot anyways so its going to be someone like that and both are cheap enough you can just bury the cap hit in the minors with no issue if they clear waivers.
 

Armourboy

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So paying Stephenson $6M for next season might indeed make our team better. Next season. I'm not sure we're really a "99 pt team" regardless, although let's see who else we sign, but what real "bump" in competitiveness does Stephenson represent for that 1 season? A few points? Slightly better odds of making the playoffs? These are not bad things, for sure. I do agree he would make our team better next season.

I just think the downside of paying him $6M for seasons past the next one could be far more impactful... in a negative way. We might not be able to use that $6M to get even better in the future, or to target needs which arise when we are (hopefully) becoming more seriously competitive, at a future time when we're spending $6M on our #3C. People have complained in the past about paying Sissons less than half of that. I don't agree with those complaints, mind you, but basically we're looking at more than double that for what is likely to be a similar level of player.

I don't think there's that much of a gap between what guys like Parssinen/Novak/Glass/Svechkov could do if you really committed to them. It's kind of the same as the argument with "kids vs. veteran depth guys" in general. It'd be a different thing if there was a large gap in performance. But I just don't believe there is. And that's in the immediate sense. The kids are very nearly as good NOW (maybe better if they were granted some leeway to build confidence), so it's basically self-defeating to choose veteran options who don't have any upside to help improve the team. It's nice to at least be a 99-pt/Round 1 playoff team, I suppose. But it's not going to be veteran tweeners who take us to any next level beyond that. Similarly on up if we make our UFA signings with a focus on a 1- or 2-year minor improvement that is likely to have a declining and negative impact on years beyond the next 1 or 2.
I mean I sometimes wonder if I'm just seeing things differently than everyone else. Yes we got WC1 and made the playoffs, but frankly it was kind of unnatural. We got that spot on the back of Career years from Forsberg and Nyquist, a ROR we didn't expect to see, and a 17 games point streak, which I'll remind people until that point Trotz was talking about selling. I'm really worried that streak could end up being the catalyst for what turns out to be a whole lot of mediocrity and then suckitude 4 years down the road.

So when you make decisions about this roster Trotz needs to factor in, do you expect Forsberg and Nyquist to have those type of seasons again? Does Josi keep his production up or does it start to slip? Does Saros regain his footing or is this past season more an indication of the new norm?

I don't think its as simple as building on the Vets you have, because I have zero reason to believe those Vets are going to give you anywhere close to that same output again.
 
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token grinder

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Yeah, Askarov, a cap dump, a plug, and two middle 6 prospects don't get a Brady Tkachuk, much less both (unless you are treating Chychrun as a cap dump).
You missed the two firsts I guess. The trade that brought Chychrun to Ottawa was for a first and 2 seconds. While a good player, I don't think his value went up while getting older and more expensive to employ.

Honestly, a first, Glass and a plug is close to his value. The other first (which you could make Tampa's, but I'd rather hold that pick) , Askarov and Parsisinen would be close to Tkachuk. Value wise that is 2, maybe 3 firsts for him.

Like I said, I would offer it if I had the pencil.
 

herzausstein

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Aug 31, 2014
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Forsberg repeating his season is going to rely on Nyquist and ROR being abke to repeat their seasons or someone being able to step up and replace them. I honestly dont see it happening. He may still have a great season with around 40G but probably not gonna hit the assists mark. Maybe some more in the 40G 35A area
 
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PredsV82

Mushy Middle Forever
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$18mil to get to the cap midpoint means Trotz can chase Marner, Stamkos, Guentzel, whoever ...... while still entering the season with Saros on the roster ... pushing that decision to keep or trade him until after Askarov has more NHL time to see if he is ready for a 1 or 1A type role yet. Then there is another $3mil in dead cap space freeing up next summer ($4mil for the Joey retention - the $1mil increase in Duchene's buyout number)
If Haslam has given the green light to spend to the cap the Preds should be one of the few teams who can really go big game hunting and at least somewhat credibly offer these targets a spot on a competitive team.
 

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
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If Haslam has given the green light to spend to the cap the Preds should be one of the few teams who can really go big game hunting and at least somewhat credibly offer these targets a spot on a competitive team.
The problem with the names mentioned is that they don't seem to be realistically available? Or at least, Marner and Stamkos aren't available... Guentzel is, but it sounds like you'd have to pay him more than Josi? I mean, I like Guentzel ok, but he's not really THAT much of a "big name". :dunno:

I don't think a really big name is out there for us this year. We have our work cut out for us just to tread water on D (Pesce to replace McDonagh, and somebody who can play top-4 minutes and hopefully improve on Carrier). That's going to take $10-12M right there. And that only maintains status quo. I hope we can find 1 or 2 forwards who can add some scoring depth as well, but I still think a lot of our improvement next season is going to have to come from within... somehow... if it's going to come at all. :dunno:
 

101st_fan

I taught Yoda
Oct 22, 2005
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Near where sand and waves meet.
If Haslam has given the green light to spend to the cap the Preds should be one of the few teams who can really go big game hunting and at least somewhat credibly offer these targets a spot on a competitive team.
With about $18mil to the midpoint the team doesn't need to spend to the cap to go big game hunting. Askarov is under a million towards the cap. That means $17mil below cap midpoint with the need for 2-3 defenders and 3 forwards (pushing one of Jankowski / Smith / McCarron to the 13th forward). Ufko, Stastney, and Molendyk all figure to compete for an opening night roster spot. L'Heureux, Kemmell, Svechkov, Pärsinnen competing for a forward spot.

To be a mid cap spender the team needs either a few players in the $4-5 mil range hoping to catch lightning in a bottle again like it did with Nyquist or it needs to make a $7-9 mil signing. Spending to the cap means going for at least two big signings.
 

Gh24

Registered User
Feb 12, 2014
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Well, we can always pretend it's ROR and we end up paying our 3C $4.5M.

If none of our center prospects turn out as top 6 centers Stephenson could be our 1C very soon.

Johansen's $4M is coming off next year
Duchene's buyout money in decreasing by $4M in 2 years
ROR's $4.5M is coming off the books in three years

Those ~6 year deals for players like him seems to turn out bad more often than not and I don't think it's ideal here either. If the management wants the team to compete for the playoffs next season then the tail end of that deal is the price they're paying for it. I'd be fine if they didn't sign a single new forward, I'm just saying I can see how that price could be justified.

FWIW I'd much rather see us trade for Necas' rights and gamble that he becomes a good 1C with increased responsibility. With a disclaimer that I have no idea what the cost would be.

I think I saw a Canes fan describe the situation so that the team would like to keep him, but Necas would rather be somewhere else, because they don't play him as a center? Not necessarily your ideal 1C for what he's shown so far, but I guess he wouldn't have the same problem with us.
 

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