Confirmed Trade: [MTL/NSH] P.K. Subban for Shea Weber - Part III

[sxvnert]

Me first? Oh really? How is he a me first player?

Blatantly obvious to anyone paying attention.

 

[sxvnert]

Weber is on decline now ,, A small slight decline but it is noticeable to fans in Central

Fresh off a season where his missed his career best by five points. Would have to disagree with that statement.

 

[glenbuis]

So there was no problem for so many years....the locker room was so great...and now all of a sudden there's a problem and that problem is PK? LMAO! People are coming up with anything.

All of a sudden. this cannot be new to you

 

[Bouboumaster]

Still pissed off.

**** Bergevin.

I hope he's booed off the Bell Centre.

 

[Kimota]

I don't envy Bergevin. Most teams just want to make moves to win hockey games. He obviously has other objectives on his plate, and probably not by his own choice.

Subban is a much better asset than Weber, but there are ways that Weber is better than Subban. Bergevin made a deal to preserve his defense. If he would have dealt with the Oilers he would have got a crazy amount of value but his defense would have no #1D on it anymore, with no hope of getting one.

He lost out for the future. However, Price is in his prime and ready to win. Weber can fill Subban's shoes and maybe he'll get better numbers out east than he did in the extremely brutal Central division. Bergevin also added some interesting players this offseason. With a healthy Price, the Habs could go on a major run this upcoming season.

It will be hard for Weber to have better numbers that he got in the west, 20 goals.

 

[Halakitlikethat]

My daughter agrees. It's a few days later, so this is just funny now:

I wanted to have the same reaction but I was on my coffee break at work, had to pull myself together quickly lol

 

[vipera1960]

For cap recapture, the most likely scenario would be the cap gets spread over 3 years. There's a very good chance that if you bet on when Weber will retire, it will be when his compensation drops to 1M per, which means 3 years will be left on the contract.

There's always a chance the NHL will add a rule into the CBA in 2022 that cap recapture on contracts that were matched as offer sheets is void, but Nashville probably didn't make this trade with that in mind.

This trade was probably made with the idea that Nashville knows they can get screwed over cap wise, but it won't be for another 6-7 years, which is a very long time in the hockey world. Because of the disparity in the trade, it was worth it for Nashville to pull the trigger and take a risk that they might suffer cap recapture in 6-7 years. If they think Subban is better than Weber, which they probably do, then getting a better player who is 4 years younger is well worth the risk that in 7 years they'd face about 8M of cap penalties a season for three seasons (roughly 24M divided over three seasons).

There's also a few other factors here that make this a good gamble for Nashville. Nashville does not always spend to the cap. Last year they had something like 10 million in excess space, this year they are primed to have between 6-7. If they aren't intending to be a cap team, getting hit with 8 million a year for 3 years (since Weber is most likely to retire with 3 years remaining) isn't going to be a big deal. Especially when you consider the possibility that in 7 years time, even if the cap only goes up by small amounts, it'll add up to making a big difference. Nashville already spends under the cap, add another 5 million to the cap over 7 seasons (which is an extremely conservative estimate), and that 8 million penalty will not matter all that much.

The odds of Weber playing through his entire contract are greater than him retiring with 1 or 2 years left. Either he likes hockey enough and isn't banged up enough for him to decide to play for what amounts to free (1M per pre-taxes) or he is banged up and retires with 3 years left once his actual salary drops to 1M. If Weber is still playing when he is making 1M per, odds are, he'll play through the deal or be forced out of the game by a legitimate injury that would put him on LTIR.

I think there will be another round of compliance buyouts after the next CBA, at which point if he's not worth his cap hit MTL will buy him out since the cost is minimal. That would eliminate the cap recapture (this has already been done twice with Ehrhoff and Brad Richards)

for the longest time it was hard to define Def Dman play.

Their are 25 - 33 shots in a game. 29 avg

Low scoring chance shots are .915 to .995 save% shots.
0.5 to 8.5% go in.
8.5 is league average shooting %
there are 17-20 LSC shots.
18.5 avg

High scoring chance shots are .915 to .800 save% shots
8.5 to 20% go in.
there are 7.5 to to 13.5 HSC shots.
10.5 is average.

you can take the Sa/60 and HSCA shot agisnt per 60 to get an expected Even and PK GA.

when you look at the best expected GA d in the game from 04-05 lockout.
the names are obvious.
Pronger
Lidstrom
Weber
Hjarlmasson
Doughty
last 2 years Adam Larsson.
Thank you PC Larsson for hall any day!

You want strong HSCA D. cause it is part of a Cup winning formula.
1. Top 8 HSCA save% goalie.
2. 3+ low HSCA & low SA D
3. depth at Even forward production.

MTl
1. top 5 HSCA golaies.
1. Price
2. holtby
3. schnieder
4. Lundquist
5. Talbot
thanks MacT for arranging the trade with sather!

2. Weber top 10 HSCA D; #73 GA D 2.04
Petry top 80 HSCA D versus EC, bottom 40 against WC.

Top 90 SA D and GA/60
#44 Barberio 26.95
#47 Pateryn 27.08
Beaulieu #90 SA 28.21; #39 GA 1.92
Markov #66 GA 2.02
Emelin #89 GA 2.11


3. top 165 Even production Forwards last 2 years combined.
#25 Pacioretty 2.12
#87 Gallagher
#109 Galchenyuk
#154 Desharnais 1.67
#162 Plekanec 1.65

Subban bottom 80 HSCA D.
30.49 SA/60 way above average.

Subban does not have cup caliber defence.

The problem with Weber is not his D zone play. In fact, as you show he is excellent at minimizing high danger scoring chances. His problem is that he almost seems to panic after he gets possession of the puck in the D zone. His zone exit stats are absolutely abysmal. I don't know if the problem is that he can't carry the puck out, or just that for so long his partners have been so good at it that he just defers. Between that (opposing players tend to key in on his partner and, so far at least, he hasn't adapted) and his tendency to force shots to the outside ( I.e. fewer high danger scoring chances) are why his Corsi has been so low the last few seasons.

 

[Stive Morgan]

My daughter agrees. It's a few days later, so this is just funny now:

Pretty much my reaction

 

[Aspirine]

You can find multiple videos of Subban getting into altercations with his teammates on youtube. That's not a good sign.

There's a line and PK seems to cross it A LOT. He's a phenomenal player, but he needs a bit of an attitude adjustment IMO. There's a fine line between leadership and arrogance.

I think this trade will actually make him a better player/leader. Great trade for the Preds.

The narrative is already in place for next year when PK has an overwhelmingly better year than Weber and the so-called "attitude" issues are nowhere to be seen. Sigh.

 

[hockeyfan2k11]

All of a sudden. this cannot be new to you

It is a complete fabrication. When Dale Weise says he was offended by what has been said about PK and the locker room issues and denies all of it....hmmm I tend to side with him.

Habs do not like players who don't fall in line. Cammeleri was traded for calling out the team's play (in the middle of a game no lesss). That happened the last time the team had a terrible season.

 

[hockeyfan2k11]

Blatantly obvious to anyone paying attention.

examples please.

 

[Mario le Magnifique]

for the longest time it was hard to define Def Dman play.

Their are 25 - 33 shots in a game. 29 avg

Low scoring chance shots are .915 to .995 save% shots.
0.5 to 8.5% go in.
8.5 is league average shooting %
there are 17-20 LSC shots.
18.5 avg

High scoring chance shots are .915 to .800 save% shots
8.5 to 20% go in.
there are 7.5 to to 13.5 HSC shots.
10.5 is average.

you can take the Sa/60 and HSCA shot agisnt per 60 to get an expected Even and PK GA.

when you look at the best expected GA d in the game from 04-05 lockout.
the names are obvious.
Pronger
Lidstrom
Weber
Hjarlmasson
Doughty
last 2 years Adam Larsson.
Thank you PC Larsson for hall any day!

You want strong HSCA D. cause it is part of a Cup winning formula.
1. Top 8 HSCA save% goalie.
2. 3+ low HSCA & low SA D
3. depth at Even forward production.

MTl
1. top 5 HSCA golaies.
1. Price
2. holtby
3. schnieder
4. Lundquist
5. Talbot
thanks MacT for arranging the trade with sather!

2. Weber top 10 HSCA D; #73 GA D 2.04
Petry top 80 HSCA D versus EC, bottom 40 against WC.

Top 90 SA D and GA/60
#44 Barberio 26.95
#47 Pateryn 27.08
Beaulieu #90 SA 28.21; #39 GA 1.92
Markov #66 GA 2.02
Emelin #89 GA 2.11


3. top 165 Even production Forwards last 2 years combined.
#25 Pacioretty 2.12
#87 Gallagher
#109 Galchenyuk
#154 Desharnais 1.67
#162 Plekanec 1.65

Subban bottom 80 HSCA D.
30.49 SA/60 way above average.

Subban does not have cup caliber defence.

Can't argue with facts.

 

[Not Sure]

I think there will be another round of compliance buyouts after the next CBA, at which point if he's not worth his cap hit MTL will buy him out since the cost is minimal. That would eliminate the cap recapture (this has already been done twice with Ehrhoff and Brad Richards)



The problem with Weber is not his D zone play. In fact, as you show he is excellent at minimizing high danger scoring chances. His problem is that he almost seems to panic after he gets possession of the puck in the D zone. His zone exit stats are absolutely abysmal. I don't know if the problem is that he can't carry the puck out, or just that for so long his partners have been so good at it that he just defers. Between that (opposing players tend to key in on his partner and, so far at least, he hasn't adapted) and his tendency to force shots to the outside ( I.e. fewer high danger scoring chances) are why his Corsi has been so low the last few seasons.

They allowed teams compliance buyouts last time because they had implemented new rules that created the recapture penalty. Teams were given the opportunity to clear those back diving deals out then. They aren't going to give out a new batch because teams decided not to use their buyout at the time. It would make no sense and goes totally against what the league is trying to do, which is make teams responsible for their contracts. I'd say there's about a 0% chance any team will be allowed to buyout more contracts for free, especially contracts signed before the previous CBA. That contract is going nowhere, just be happy the bulk of it will be going to Nashville if he retires early, probably more likely he pulls a Pronger and goes on LTIR for 3 or 4 years.

 

[ThirdManIn]

Fresh off a season where his missed his career best by five points. Would have to disagree with that statement.

To be fair, he said a small decline. BWC and I do not agree on many things, but it is reasonable to say he has seen a small decline. Of course, when you have been at or near the top of defensemen for years there aren't really many places to go except down. He used to be a top 3 defender with a good argument for the best overall. Now he is more like a top ten defender with a good argument for somewhere around 7 or 8, in my mind, but that is debatable to many. Some have him closer to a 12-15 defender, and some a bit lower than that. He is still in the top half, possibly top third, of consensus number 1 defensemen for almost everybody, but to say he hasn't declined is incorrect. Even if his decline is more pronounced because of younger elite players who have jumped ahead of him, the decline is still there. It's to be expected.

That said, it isn't as if he has lost the ability to step out on the ice and be the best player out there on any given night, but he does that with a bit less frequency now. He also has a few more utterly bad games per year than he used to.

He is still a legit 1D, and he is still good for 50+ points, or at least that was true in Nashville. Now it's up to how well he plays with the squad in Montreal.

 

[Jee]

My daughter agrees. It's a few days later, so this is just funny now:

Felt like this at work.

 

[mashedpotato]

Unless Weber leads the Habs to a playoff contention, I can't see how any Hab fan is content with this trade; even though Subban would likely have not lead the team to cup contention, he was too much of a fan favorite.

Weber has some serious odds stacked against him even before the season starts.

That's unfair but expected given Subban's stature in the community.

Leaf fans approve of this trade.

 

[loudi94]

Unless Weber leads the Habs to a playoff contention, I can't see how any Hab fan is content with this trade; even though Subban would likely have not lead the team to cup contention, he was too much of a fan favorite.

Weber has some serious odds stacked against him even before the season starts.

That's unfair but expected given Subban's stature in the community.

Leaf fans approve of this trade.

I was upset at the trade. Then I went and watched what Weber brings to the table. Something we haven't had in a long time. Leaf fans probably aren't going to like this trade one little bit.

 

[Billerdzzz]

Was in total shock when this trade was announced! Both P.K and Weber are both great D men.

Shea has the edge of course in size, strength. He'll add size and physicality to a team that desperately needs it. P.K will bring speed
and his good offensive D man skills.

If Subban and Weber were the same age, there wouldn't have been an issue over the 1 for 1 trade. In the short term, Shea will help Montreal immensely. He's got a wicked shot. He uses his size and will hit, and defends well.

 

[mashedpotato]

I was upset at the trade. Then I went and watched what Weber brings to the table. Something we haven't had in a long time. Leaf fans probably aren't going to like this trade one little bit.

edit : Ok. Everyone values something and Habs value something in Weber that they don't see in Subban. I think the rest of the hockey community don't see the same but that's not important. As long as Habs are okay with their decision.

Leafs agree with Habs fans that this is a great deal?

 

[loudi94]

edit : Ok. Everyone values something and Habs value something in Weber that they don't see in Subban. I think the rest of the hockey community don't see the same but that's not important. As long as Habs are okay with their decision.

Leafs agree with Habs fans that this is a great deal?

The funny thing about this whole deal is that if we put this deal on this board on June 20th, we'd get 40 pages from Habs fans about how bad a deal it would be (myself included) and from everyone else saying how deluded we are thinking PK can even hold Weber's jock.

Looking at it from a lemons to lemonade point of view, we traded an apple and picked up an orange. I can't say this is going to work out in one team's favour because we just don't know. PK/Weber could end up not finding a good match on the left side. That more than anything will play a factor.

 

[mashedpotato]

The funny thing about this whole deal is that if we put this deal on this board on June 20th, we'd get 40 pages from Habs fans about how bad a deal it would be (myself included) and from everyone else saying how deluded we are thinking PK can even hold Weber's jock.

Looking at it from a lemons to lemonade point of view, we traded an apple and picked up an orange. I can't say this is going to work out in one team's favour because we just don't know. PK/Weber could end up not finding a good match on the left side. That more than anything will play a factor.

I think eventual acceptance is a natural and normal reaction to loss provided you go through the predefined stages first.

You're looking at it correctly. You lose a young skilled popular defenceman for an older skilled orange.

 

[CanadienShark]

I wanted to have the same reaction but I was on my coffee break at work, had to pull myself together quickly lol

I took a baseball bat sized piece of wood, told the buddy who showed me the news to duck and took a swing at a metal pole. Good thing I told him to duck.

 

[mashedpotato]

I want to bring the discussion back to pure hockey.

Can we agree that they're both great players - one is just younger and has better posession numbers and the other is older and has a longer contract?

 

[loudi94]

I want to bring the discussion back to pure hockey.

Can we agree that they're both great players - one is just younger and has better posession numbers and the other is older and has a longer contract?

They are. If there is a winner in this deal, it will be determined on the ice.

BTW, it never just is about pure hockey when it comes to PK.

 

[mashedpotato]

They are. If there is a winner in this deal, it will be determined on the ice.

BTW, it never just is about pure hockey when it comes to PK.

While I agree that the winner of this trade will be judged on his current play, I think you're ignoring some key elements to bother players which include age and term of contract.

Can you elaborate what you mean by your last comment?