Confirmed Trade: [MTL/NSH] P.K. Subban for Shea Weber - Part III

[Goose]

Few days later I still don't like this deal for the Habs.

It won't go down as a major mistake but I think it's a real culture killer and hurts the Habs' brand.

 

[yababy]

Weber is going to be a top dmen until he is 37-38 quiet easily.

Likely a top pairing dmen until 40 if he wanted to play the whole contact (he won't likely play those last 3 years at 1M per)

People for some reason think elite dmen like Weber are going to decline in their mid to late 30's decline.

Best example is Pronger, who plays a similar game to Weber, where he was able to still be an elite dmen at an older age because he just doesn't use his size but knows how to think the game.

Pronger was good until he was 35, then he fell off a cliff.
I dont see much value in Weber for the last 5 years on his contract.

 

[HuGo Sham]

Pronger was good until he was 35, then he fell off a cliff.
I dont see much value in Weber for the last 5 years on his contract.

As a habsfan i'm not big on the deal either but if Weber plays the next 5 years well for habs all is good. He's turning 31 but will play entire year as 31 y.o

juulsen and sergachev will be with habs within 5 years

 

[LightningStorm]

Knew this was a bad trade from the start for the Habs, but initially couldn't process how it completely was since value wise, Subban and Weber are pretty close. Now I have a full grasp why.

If you take both players right now in a vacuum, they are basically even. Subban is better offensively, while Weber is better in his own end. However, outside of the vacuum when we get to the actual team needs of the Habs, this trade is terrible. For the 2 teams I'm a fan of (Tampa and Dallas), Weber would be a better fit since both have explosive offenses and great puck moving d-men (Hedman and Klingberg). But for an offensively challenged team like Montreal who is already good defensively and tough to score against when Price is healthy, giving up a d-man like Subban, who can give them a much needed offensive spark with his skating, puckhandling and passing (plus a big shot) for a d-man, who although great, is more of a stay at home d-man, makes zero sense. Plus Subban is 4 years younger and has more of his prime left.

This obviously gets even worse when you factor in when their contracts expire, with Subban's expiring when he's 35 as oppose to Weber's expiring at 40.

 

[Billerdzzz]

I keep reading this, if they were the same age Nashville would never make this trade.

I agree. And I still feel Shea Weber has a lot left to give in the NHL. He'll be 31 to start the season, but could have a good six or so years ahead of him.

There have been few defenceman, like Chris Chelios who were still playing til' their early 40's. If Weber keeps himself in good shape, with no serious injuries, it may be possible he finishes his career with Montreal on a positive note.

 

[TT1]

Few days later I still don't like this deal for the Habs.

It won't go down as a major mistake but I think it's a real culture killer and hurts the Habs' brand.

ironic seeing as thats the exact reason why they traded PK, take a few more days and think about it some more

 

[Jigger77]

I find it interesting to see that most see Montreal as the loser in this trade. I'm actually shocked that Nashville let Shea Weber go. I really liked Subban, he was a guy that got me out of my seat on numerous occasions and probably one of the harder working players I've ever seen. The guy is a workhorse. You definitely cannot second guess the effort level. It's just that he didn't always work the right way.

I always thought there was something missing in his game. Something that's difficult to pinpoint and put into words. I think the best way to put it is that he doesn't completely grasp the concept of how to use his teammates to make himself and the team better. He tried to take things upon himself too much and never completely grasped that part of the game. A lot of high skill players don't. Everything was always kind of complicated and over the top. I think this is specifically why he was never really able to quarterback a powerplay, for example. I always thought it was weird that a guy with such an offensive skill set wasn't able to run a PP, at least not to the level you'd expect. It wasn't lack of vision, it wasn't lack of effort, it was predictability ironically that did him in (I.E the huge wind-up for the slap shot). If you look at last season he had all kinds of trouble getting it through to the net. Because everyone knew what to expect. Sometimes the simple play is the best play and I don't know that he ever fully grasped that.

I haven't seen as much of Weber as Subban, so it's very possible I'm wrong, but have seen quite a bit. I also watch defensemen more than forwards. From what I gather he's basically the opposite of this. He's the rare combination of high skill set and a total understanding of the game with the added bonus of a mean streak. He's the alpha dog on the ice who makes everyone around him better, by playing a cerebral brand of hockey and by doing it extremely well. He knows when to hold onto the puck and knows when to move it. He doesn't try to score end to end goals ala Bobby Orr, he just plays a fairly simply brand of hockey and gets the job done. He simplifies the game, and his teammates know what he is going to do.

I think in the long run Montreal will be the better team following this trade. Nashville will probably sell more tickets.

I also should mention I don't think PK was a bad teammate. I think that stuff is mostly made up by fans. I want to make it clear that's not what I'm talking about. I think the guy was actually really well-liked in the room. Respected? That I'm not quite sure about.

Anyway, personally I think Montreal got away with one here, but obviously I could be wrong and only time will tell.

I also think it's possible that Subban ends up outpointing Weber in the long run, but that Montreal still wins the trade because it gets them further into the playoffs, or dare I say to a Cup Championship.

We'll see I guess.

 

[Seanaconda]

Pronger was good until he was 35, then he fell off a cliff.
I dont see much value in Weber for the last 5 years on his contract.

Pronger ... got a horrible concussion that can happen to anyone at any age. See lindros savard or Kariya or anyone else that Stevens managed to end their career

If prongs didn't get concussed I bet he would of been able to play till 40. At least they are trying to get rid of plays that result in head injuries now.

 

[habs03]

Pronger was good until he was 35, then he fell off a cliff.
I dont see much value in Weber for the last 5 years on his contract.

Pronger did not fall off a cliff, what are you talking about, the guy just got a bad conclusion that pretty much ended him.

As for Weber contract, people try to make it seem like its a bad contract when its actually great.

Its pretty much a 7 year deal at 7.8.

Weber makes 1 M per in the last 3 years of his 10 year deal, and 3M in year 7.

Add to that Quebec tax, the likely hood he plays past 38 is very unlikely (even though I think he'll be able to play top pairing dmen hockey until that age).

And Mtl gets zero cap penalty for him retiring early..

I mean based on recent HFboards pools, Weber is ahead of Subban.
According to guys like Stevie Y, Doug Armstrong, Mike Babcock, Claude Julien and Barry Trozts and Queenville (team Canada) Weber is clearly ahead of Subban.

Only thing Subban has right now is corsi stats, but even those are debatable (Weber also alot of shots vs, but most are from the outside).

Reason Mtl losses this trade isn't based on hockey. Its the fact that Subban was such a popular figure in the community and to the fans, and even if Weber is better, its not enough to trade away the good Subban does off the ice.

 

[Tripod]

Yeah, to re-inforce, Pronger did big fall of a cliff. For Philly:

55 pts in 82 games, then 18 pts in 23 playoff games
25 pts in 50 games, then 1 pt in 3 playoff games
12 pts in 13 games, then never played another game

111 pts in 171 games with Philly.....53 point pace over 82 games.

Weber can certainly age well if he applies himself.

 

[Seanaconda]

Yeah, to re-inforce, Pronger did big fall of a cliff. For Philly:

55 pts in 82 games, then 18 pts in 23 playoff games
25 pts in 50 games, then 1 pt in 3 playoff games
12 pts in 13 games, then never played another game

111 pts in 171 games with Philly.....53 point pace over 82 games.

Weber can certainly age well if he applies himself.

I'm assuming big was supposed to be not

 

[5150]

Great trade for both teams.

 

[glenbuis]

The team was in shambles and the coach takes no responsibility? How does he still have a job?

Dressing room issues? Really? Does anyone really know what happens in dressing rooms? The easiest cop-out rationale for a GM who wants to get rid of a player as he knows that the aspect that is the most removed from public scrutiny, is what happens in the dressing room.

if they show you on camera it kinda proves things are not good. look up the desharnais one

 

[MikeK]

Great trade for both teams.

Short term, probably. Long term this is a terrible trade for MTL. I still can't believe it actually happened. One that will end up being a black eye for MTL.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Pronger ... got a horrible concussion that can happen to anyone at any age. See lindros savard or Kariya or anyone else that Stevens managed to end their career

If prongs didn't get concussed I bet he would of been able to play till 40. At least they are trying to get rid of plays that result in head injuries now.

Doubtful, Pronger's knees were rapidly disintegrating.

 

[janesy12]

Pronger did not fall off a cliff, what are you talking about, the guy just got a bad conclusion that pretty much ended him.

As for Weber contract, people try to make it seem like its a bad contract when its actually great.

Its pretty much a 7 year deal at 7.8.

Weber makes 1 M per in the last 3 years of his 10 year deal, and 3M in year 7.

Add to that Quebec tax, the likely hood he plays past 38 is very unlikely (even though I think he'll be able to play top pairing dmen hockey until that age).

And Mtl gets zero cap penalty for him retiring early..

I mean based on recent HFboards pools, Weber is ahead of Subban.
According to guys like Stevie Y, Doug Armstrong, Mike Babcock, Claude Julien and Barry Trozts and Queenville (team Canada) Weber is clearly ahead of Subban.

Only thing Subban has right now is corsi stats, but even those are debatable (Weber also alot of shots vs, but most are from the outside).

Reason Mtl losses this trade isn't based on hockey. Its the fact that Subban was such a popular figure in the community and to the fans, and even if Weber is better, its not enough to trade away the good Subban does off the ice.

He's never going to retire early. He'd be walking away from guaranteed money. See Chris Pronger, Marc Savard, Stephane Robidas and as recently as Pavel Datsyuk. Hell Vinny Lecavalier only got traded from Philly last year on the promise he'd retire after the season to not put LA in a cap situation. The Habs will be stuck with Weber's $7.857 million cap hit until the end of 2026. Unless they can trade it a la Detroit (Datsyuk).

 

[smirob]

He's never going to retire early. He'd be walking away from guaranteed money. See Chris Pronger, Marc Savard, Stephane Robidas and as recently as Pavel Datsyuk. Hell Vinny Lecavalier only got traded from Philly last year on the promise he'd retire after the season to not put LA in a cap situation. The Habs will be stuck with Weber's $7.857 million cap hit until the end of 2026. Unless they can trade it a la Detroit (Datsyuk).

You could easily move a contract where the actual money is 1M and the hit is 7.8.....there will be teams trying to get to the floor who would love this type of deal.

I like it for both teams.

 

[nomorekids]

My final peace, in regard to Weber:

I'm an analytics guy. I've been interested and invested since the only real debate was Corsi vs Fenwick. I know that Weber's numbers are bad, and I largely know why. Some of it can be explained away in such a way that it's nothing to do with Weber's play, some of it can't. However, I've always said that there are certain intangibles that make Weber a great and valuable defenseman anyway -- his leadership, his physical presence, and of course, the threat of his shot.

I think those things still hold true, and for that reason I think that analytics folks will still point at his advanced stats and call him overrated. From a strict X's and O's perspective, they are probably right. He makes a difference on the ice, but it's not because he's a high IQ, rock solid defense guy. He just has an aura, and Habs fans will grow to love that aura...but don't expect his stats to suddenly fix themselves. His heavy defensive zone deployment will of course play against his possession numbers, but the biggest flaw in his game is his play with the puck, and the consequential trouble that he has getting out of his own end. He *must* be paired with someone who excels in this regard, and they *must* do the heavy lifting in terms of zone exit. It's why he worked so well with two guys that are elite in that regard -- Ryan Suter and Roman Josi. He can't be the guy to carry the puck out. He can't be the guy making your breakout pass. That's the biggest hole in his game. You need a d partner to transition the puck, and you need forwards supporting to gather when he creates separation. If you do that, you'll set him up to succeed and you won't care that he's a poor Corsi player. You'll be irritated that the analytics bloggers blast him while swooning over Mark Giordano, but in the end you'll be happy and love him.

I think that, at the end of the day, PK Subban is a better "hockey player," in terms of driving possession, goals, plays, etc...I think that his greater presence is also an asset, even though it seemingly deterred Montreal management. I do think that Nashville "won" this trade overall, but Montreal fans shouldn't hang their heads, because they're still getting a player that will be beloved, one that we will miss in Nashville for a long time, based on who he was and what he meant to our franchise and our city for so long.

 

[habs03]

He's never going to retire early. He'd be walking away from guaranteed money. See Chris Pronger, Marc Savard, Stephane Robidas and as recently as Pavel Datsyuk. Hell Vinny Lecavalier only got traded from Philly last year on the promise he'd retire after the season to not put LA in a cap situation. The Habs will be stuck with Weber's $7.857 million cap hit until the end of 2026. Unless they can trade it a la Detroit (Datsyuk).

This makes zero sense.. zero

Pronger, Savard, Robidas and you can add Nathan Horton to the list BTW are actually injured and all those teams get their cap numbers pretty much off the books..

No idea what the hell your bring in Datsyuk into this. The issue with Datsyuk is he signed a 35+ contact, and those contacts got against the cap regardless if the player is injured or retires...

Weber's contact is not at 35+ (contact that are signed when the player is 35 years or older, Pronger actually is also a 35+ contract).


Not sure what Vinny has to do with this topic...

To make it straight forward for you.

Weber can for sure play until he is 41, but he be playing for about 480K per year after taxes in Mtl from age 38-41. Not going to happen... but if he does, probably means he is still playing at a high level.

If he was to get injured and have a career ending injury, Mtl can put him on LTIR and get him off the cap...

 

[SauceMyBiscuit]

Habs are the new Smashville

 

[habaholic]

Pronger was good until he was 35, then he fell off a cliff.
I dont see much value in Weber for the last 5 years on his contract.

Pronger was traded to the Flyers at the age of 35 and was dominant for 2-3 more years. Even in his last year, when he sustained the injury which eventually lead to his retirement, he had 11 points in 12 games. I wouldn't call that falling off a cliff.

 

[TOGuy14]

I want Weber to retire with only one year left on his deal so I can witness the insanity that would ensue for the Preds cap situation

 

[tampa pred]

I want Weber to retire with only one year left on his deal so I can witness the insanity that would ensue for the Preds cap situation

The NHL will not punish Nashville for this deal that they were forced to accept. The cap recapture penalty was put in place to prevent teams from structuring deals in order to circumvent the cap. The argument is that Nashville received a $24 million benefit from Weber's contract (between the 2012 and 2015 seasons), BUT Nashville has never been a cap team. They were actually 33 million under the cap over that same time period. So the $24 million cap benefit was unrealized.

2012-2013 Cap = $60 million; Preds salary = $50 million
2013-2014 Cap = $64.3 million; Preds salary = $59 million
2014-2015 Cap = $69 million; Preds salary = $60 million
2015-2016 Cap = $71.4 million; Preds salary = $62 million

I have to believe that the NHL will take this into consideration when the time comes to enforce this penalty.

 

[sparxx87]

Saw big Karl in Fortinos the other day and asked his opinion... He just shook his head no.

 

[nomorekids]

The NHL will not punish Nashville for this deal that they were forced to accept. The cap recapture penalty was put in place to prevent teams from structuring deals in order to circumvent the cap. The argument is that Nashville received a $24 million benefit from Weber's contract (between the 2012 and 2015 seasons), BUT Nashville has never been a cap team. They were actually 33 million under the cap over that same time period. So the $24 million cap benefit was unrealized.

2012-2013 Cap = $60 million; Preds salary = $50 million
2013-2014 Cap = $64.3 million; Preds salary = $59 million
2014-2015 Cap = $69 million; Preds salary = $60 million
2015-2016 Cap = $71.4 million; Preds salary = $62 million

I have to believe that the NHL will take this into consideration when the time comes to enforce this penalty.

Not to mention, there is at least one CBA negotiation prior to that point, maybe even two. I wouldn't be surprised if that rule gets altered, given Nashville's BOG presence and influence in past negotiations.