Confirmed Trade: [MTL/NSH] P.K. Subban for Shea Weber - Part III

[Lindberg Cheese]

ironic seeing as thats the exact reason why they traded PK, take a few more days and think about it some more

I don't even care about who "won" the trade, I'm an outsider. Good player for good player. But I thought that the Habs public spin on the situation was snarky and disingenuous at the least. I hate Subban the player as much as the next conference rival fan but a dude as generous as he certainly doesn't deserve the negativity. Horse beaten, dead.

 

[NHLNUT04]

Habs trade Subban to Preds for Weber in blockbuster deal

Who won the deal?

 

[sparxx87]

Habs trade Subban to Preds for Weber in blockbuster deal

Who won the deal?

I think a lot will depend on how many good years the Habs get out of Weber's 10 remaining, and of course how PK progresses. He's entering his prime..

TBD, although from the outset it looks pretty favourable for the Preds.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Habs trade Subban to Preds for Weber in blockbuster deal

Who won the deal?

Nashville won it big time.
And it's not a stab to Weber.
But Subban is younger, and aguarbly better.
And signed to a less ridiculous contract.

 

[I am I]

The NHL will not punish Nashville for this deal that they were forced to accept. The cap recapture penalty was put in place to prevent teams from structuring deals in order to circumvent the cap. The argument is that Nashville received a $24 million benefit from Weber's contract (between the 2012 and 2015 seasons), BUT Nashville has never been a cap team. They were actually 33 million under the cap over that same time period. So the $24 million cap benefit was unrealized.

2012-2013 Cap = $60 million; Preds salary = $50 million
2013-2014 Cap = $64.3 million; Preds salary = $59 million
2014-2015 Cap = $69 million; Preds salary = $60 million
2015-2016 Cap = $71.4 million; Preds salary = $62 million

I have to believe that the NHL will take this into consideration when the time comes to enforce this penalty.

That isn't the way section 50.5 of the CBA is written... I don't think the NHL can arbitrarily alter the CBA just for the benefit of one team. Best hope is either he plays out the contract or the next CBA removes the cap recapture penalty.

 

[Not Sure]

That isn't the way section 50.5 of the CBA is written... I don't think the NHL can arbitrarily alter the CBA just for the benefit of one team. Best hope is either he plays out the contract or the next CBA removes the cap recapture penalty.

I'd have to agree. The point of a CBA is so everyone plays by the same rules (theoretically). You can't just change a penalty because it will hurt a team you didn't expect it to. You can't make Vancouver pay the recapture when Lou retires early and say it's working as intended, then change the rules for Nashville if Weber retires early.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

My final peace, in regard to Weber:

I'm an analytics guy. I've been interested and invested since the only real debate was Corsi vs Fenwick. I know that Weber's numbers are bad, and I largely know why. Some of it can be explained away in such a way that it's nothing to do with Weber's play, some of it can't. However, I've always said that there are certain intangibles that make Weber a great and valuable defenseman anyway -- his leadership, his physical presence, and of course, the threat of his shot.

I think those things still hold true, and for that reason I think that analytics folks will still point at his advanced stats and call him overrated. From a strict X's and O's perspective, they are probably right. He makes a difference on the ice, but it's not because he's a high IQ, rock solid defense guy. He just has an aura, and Habs fans will grow to love that aura...but don't expect his stats to suddenly fix themselves. His heavy defensive zone deployment will of course play against his possession numbers, but the biggest flaw in his game is his play with the puck, and the consequential trouble that he has getting out of his own end. He *must* be paired with someone who excels in this regard, and they *must* do the heavy lifting in terms of zone exit. It's why he worked so well with two guys that are elite in that regard -- Ryan Suter and Roman Josi. He can't be the guy to carry the puck out. He can't be the guy making your breakout pass. That's the biggest hole in his game. You need a d partner to transition the puck, and you need forwards supporting to gather when he creates separation. If you do that, you'll set him up to succeed and you won't care that he's a poor Corsi player. You'll be irritated that the analytics bloggers blast him while swooning over Mark Giordano, but in the end you'll be happy and love him.

I think that, at the end of the day, PK Subban is a better "hockey player," in terms of driving possession, goals, plays, etc...I think that his greater presence is also an asset, even though it seemingly deterred Montreal management. I do think that Nashville "won" this trade overall, but Montreal fans shouldn't hang their heads, because they're still getting a player that will be beloved, one that we will miss in Nashville for a long time, based on who he was and what he meant to our franchise and our city for so long.

Markov is the best LD Montreal has. Petry the best RD. These two guys would be the closest to Suter or Josi. No one else on the roster are both good puck movers and good in their own end. Markov winds up fatigued at the end of the season, and now without Subban, he will only be used more heavily, not less. Fatigued Andrei Markov is not a pretty sight. Petry is a RD, and hence someone will have to play on the off-side if he plays with Weber.

Also, unlike the mostly slothful West, the road to the playoffs in the East will almost certainly involve Washington and Pittsburgh. Tampa and a team like Florida can also be met in the first round. San Jose was already able to outspeed Nashville and humiliate Weber in that game 7, and Pittsburgh's speed is on a whole another level.

 

[Runner77]

Few days later I still don't like this deal for the Habs.

It won't go down as a major mistake but I think it's a real culture killer and hurts the Habs' brand.

Bergevin and Therrien are doing a good job of killing off the Habs' brand.

Wait til Molson wakes up and finds out.

 

[varano]

Bergevin and Therrien are doing a good job of killing off the Habs' brand.

Wait til Molson wakes up and finds out.

Funny that you think the Molsons didn't approve this trade. Anything Subban related goes through the Molsons

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

This move alone gets me so excited for the fall. Really can't wait to see how both these guys do on new teams.

 

[bigduga]

The NHL will not punish Nashville for this deal that they were forced to accept. The cap recapture penalty was put in place to prevent teams from structuring deals in order to circumvent the cap. The argument is that Nashville received a $24 million benefit from Weber's contract (between the 2012 and 2015 seasons), BUT Nashville has never been a cap team. They were actually 33 million under the cap over that same time period. So the $24 million cap benefit was unrealized.

2012-2013 Cap = $60 million; Preds salary = $50 million
2013-2014 Cap = $64.3 million; Preds salary = $59 million
2014-2015 Cap = $69 million; Preds salary = $60 million
2015-2016 Cap = $71.4 million; Preds salary = $62 million

I have to believe that the NHL will take this into consideration when the time comes to enforce this penalty.

A) The perds were not forced to accept anything about those terms, they were free to let Shea Webber walk to Philly and take their CBA prescribed compensation. Just because they didn't actively negotiate those terms, doesn't excuse them from ultimately agreeing to the same front-loaded nonsense that Philly and Weber put in place when they signed the offer sheet.

B) That they subsequently chose not to spend to the cap in subsequent years isn't the rest of the league's problem, either...there are also negotiating advantages to having extra cap space that aren't related at all to actually using it. Good on the Perds for being good sports and not taking advantage of the early cap benefits in that deal I guess. It doesn't mean they weren't there, and it doesn't mean that shea weber's contract since the lockout has not been structured such that it's subject to collectively bargained penalties.

You can believe all you want about whose fault it was that the Perds are on the hook for that recapture penalty and what sort of goodwill nonsense the league could do to help them out because the big, bad Flyers forced their hand. The league still can't make exceptions to that rule without also making exceptions for everyone else that abused the system, and they're not going to do that.

 

[ThirdManIn]

Markov is the best LD Montreal has. Petry the best RD. These two guys would be the closest to Suter or Josi. No one else on the roster are both good puck movers and good in their own end. Markov winds up fatigued at the end of the season, and now without Subban, he will only be used more heavily, not less. Fatigued Andrei Markov is not a pretty sight. Petry is a RD, and hence someone will have to play on the off-side if he plays with Weber.

Also, unlike the mostly slothful West, the road to the playoffs in the East will almost certainly involve Washington and Pittsburgh. Tampa and a team like Florida can also be met in the first round. San Jose was already able to outspeed Nashville and humiliate Weber in that game 7, and Pittsburgh's speed is on a whole another level.

Wait. So the West is mostly lazy? What?

I agree that Weber had a terrible game 7 along with the rest of the team, but it wasn't due to being lazy. That's a terrible read of the situation. You also seem to forget which division the Predators play in, and it is far from a "slothful" division.

 

[token grinder]

Wait. So the West is mostly lazy? What?

I agree that Weber had a terrible game 7 along with the rest of the team, but it wasn't due to being lazy. That's a terrible read of the situation. You also seem to forget which division the Predators play in, and it is far from a "slothful" division.

In Fairness, Mike Fisher horse****ed the dmen by not rotating when they pinched that resulted into two of those goals.

Fish isn't paid a gazillion dollars so he doesn't shoulder the blame.

But yeah, bad game all around. It happens.

This is hopefully a trade both teams win.

 

[Wats]

Wait. So the West is mostly lazy? What?

I agree that Weber had a terrible game 7 along with the rest of the team, but it wasn't due to being lazy. That's a terrible read of the situation. You also seem to forget which division the Predators play in, and it is far from a "slothful" division.

I think he means 'slow' than 'lazy'.

Habs management wants to play a boring rope-a-dope style and when Subban is on the ice this doesn't happen as much. In fact, they actually tend to push the play when he's on the ice. Weber's speed may not mean much as the Habs will probably be in their own zone most of the game. When Therrien calls for the no-man fore-check, Weber will probably fit the system more as he won't be as keen to create offense 5 on 5. Just clear the zone off the boards/dump it in.

 

[ThirdManIn]

I think he means 'slow' than 'lazy'.

Habs management wants to play a boring rope-a-dope style and when Subban is on the ice this doesn't happen as much. Weber's speed may not mean much as the Habs will probably be in their own zone most of the game. When Therrien calls for the no-man fore-check, Weber will probably fit the system more as he won't be as keen to create offense 5 on 5. Just clear the zone off the boards/dump it in.

Possibly, but the definition of "slothful" is literally "lazy."

The West isn't exactly slow either. There may be a few teams with more top end speed in the East, but the West isn't stuck in 2004 so even if slothful was meant as slow it is hyperbolic.

 

[puckluck33*]

Subban has never scored more than 15 goals in a season....Weber has done it 7 times not to mention Weber is WAY better defensively and WAY more physical.....CASE CLOSED.

 

[E82]

Subban has never scored more than 15 goals in a season....Weber has done it 7 times not to mention Weber is WAY better defensively and WAY more physical.....CASE CLOSED.

where are all those goals in the playoffs. Do you even know who the leader in scoring for defensemen in the playoffs since 2010 is? Do you know which defenseman is the most clutch in the playoffs..obviously behind Keith?

Anyways lol

 

[xxreact9]

Subban has never scored more than 15 goals in a season....Weber has done it 7 times not to mention Weber is WAY better defensively and WAY more physical.....CASE CLOSED.

Extreme hyperbole with the "way", like literally huge amounts of exaggeration.

Weber is better defensively, at hitting, and at scoring goals. If those were the only factors to consider then the case would be closed. If age, performance trends, etc. meant nothing then yes the case would be closed.

HOWEVER, there are indeed tons of other factors. PK is an ALL-AROUND better offensive player. He is a slightly better all-around hockey player. He is entering his prime while Weber is entering his decline (his play has literally declined over time since his mid 20s). He is 3 years younger.

The only thing Weber brings more than PK is what you've mentioned, which constitutes a small portion of what makes an overall hockey player, and furthermore what makes an asset have value.

 

[mjlee]

I think value vise it's a pretty close trade and it will be exciting seeing how both players adapt to their new teams, especially since it seemed to come out of nowhere and both players probably thought they would retire (at least in Weber's case) as a Habs/Preds.

What I will enjoy is seeing how Weber, by all accounts a shy, private guy will deal with the fishbowl that is the Habs, and especially their PR. I cannot wait for him to grit his teeth through a rendition of Let It Go next Christmas or smash an egg against his forehead or carve a pumpkin or bob for apples or be asked whether he prefers a toupee or comb forward, or whatever else PR cooks up for him.

Habs fans, do you think Weber will wear a letter this season? He was the undisputed leader and longtime captain of the Preds, and he did wear one for Team Canada iirc.

 

[mashedpotato]

I think value vise it's a pretty close trade and it will be exciting seeing how both players adapt to their new teams, especially since it seemed to come out of nowhere and both players probably thought they would retire (at least in Weber's case) as a Habs/Preds.

What I will enjoy is seeing how Weber, by all accounts a shy, private guy will deal with the fishbowl that is the Habs, and especially their PR. I cannot wait for him to grit his teeth through a rendition of Let It Go next Christmas or smash an egg against his forehead or carve a pumpkin or bob for apples or be asked whether he prefers a toupee or comb forward, or whatever else PR cooks up for him.

Habs fans, do you think Weber will wear a letter this season? He was the undisputed leader and longtime captain of the Preds, and he did wear one for Team Canada iirc.

I wouldn't say he's shy - just the strong silent type - prefers to let his actions do the talking. I admire these types of players over the brash energetic talkative types, particularly in the locker room.

As far as wearing a letter, Weber should get atleast an 'A'. I can't imagine how he won't get one; if anything, I'd give him the 'C' just because it's freaking Shea Weber.

 

[Boxscore]

Can the Habs use Mark Streit for a final year? Philly will give him away cheap.

 

[Runner77]

Funny that you think the Molsons didn't approve this trade. Anything Subban related goes through the Molsons

Funny you missed the sarcasm inherent in my comment.

I'm fully aware that Molson is in the loop. I'm merely suggesting he doesn't know what he's doing, hence he'll find out eventually that he was out of the loop even if he was in fact consulted or approved the deal.

 

[Runner77]

Can the Habs use Mark Streit for a final year? Philly will give him away cheap.

Why sell him cheap? Try and pry away any player who is 4 years younger than Streit and who is on a better contract. It can be done.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

Wait. So the West is mostly lazy? What?

I agree that Weber had a terrible game 7 along with the rest of the team, but it wasn't due to being lazy. That's a terrible read of the situation. You also seem to forget which division the Predators play in, and it is far from a "slothful" division.

I meant that the teams they faced lacked speed depth. Andrew Cogliano is the only Duck who can burn people. Weber faced the likes of Perron and Rakell, and was far from being a clear victor in the duels for the puck. Ryan Garbutt finally made him pay in game 5 with a clear smashing of Weber into the boards and exploiting Rinne leaving a small gap open.

St Louis, San Jose, and LA have good forwards, but they do not pack the combo of athleticism the top playoffs teams in the East will throw at Weber. Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Drouin, Tavares, Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, and others all have well- built bodies of their own with some combo of strength, speed, and slick hands and just as much mental tenacity to engage in puck battles against Weber.

And remember, playoffs Weber will ve complemented by fatigued Markov, the awful Barberio, or the untrusted Beaulieu. Not Roman Josi or Ryan Suter.

Not only that, but even Weber could nor help his team extend the series against the Coyotes despite a copious amount of PPs that game 5. Which means that Weber's offensive dimension can be shut down with quality penalty killing and blocking his shots. Subban can create goals for others or himself from other places. Shea Weber would not have had a breakaway coming out of the box against Boston nor made a move to dodge the defenderband make a perfect pass to Parenteau for goal against Tampa.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

Subban has never scored more than 15 goals in a season....Weber has done it 7 times not to mention Weber is WAY better defensively and WAY more physical.....CASE CLOSED.

Weber hits, but he plays a mostly disciplined game and most often uses his stick to disrupt plays. He will not sacrifice position to make a hit, and that is part of the reason he is elite.