Who Wins The Rocket This Year?
- Thread starter DitchMarner
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joestevens29
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Video Nasty
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“And now being out of the lineup”
Drai has a strong start and has shown he can score 50+ multiple times before. And the Oilers PP has been terrible so there’s lots of room for improvement there even if his ES goals slow down. He’d be my favourite right now
jigglysquishy
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Draisaitl seems most likely. Connor and Reinhart good bets too.
Matthews started too slow and missing 8 games will eliminate him
Matthews started too slow and missing 8 games will eliminate him
leafsfan5
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Matthews missed 9 games in 21-22 coming off surgery and he had 6 in his first 13 games as he was getting back into form. He started with 5 in 13 this year. So, it's still possible, when he goes on his runs he's basically scoring every night and in a field where no one looks particularly strong he could definitely come back and take it
With that said, the Leafs are taking his injury very slow and want him back at 110% before he's in the lineup. I'd best against him winning due to that
Dread Clawz
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Reinhart has 15 goals in 20 games.
Draisaitl has 15 goals in 21 games(13 even strength), that's with McDavid missing 4 games.
The Oilers PP is going to turn it around here at some point, I don't see how Matthews can realistically catch him.
leafsfan5
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Reinhart is currently pacing for 62, for Matthews to match that he will have to comeback on Wednesday (which is his projected return) and score at a 73 goal pace. It is possible, if there's one guy who can score at that rate it's him as he basically did it last year. Regardless, I'd put the odds relatively low given the system we play + the leafs cautious nature with his injury
Also, Reinhart + Draisaitl are also at a stupidly high shooting%, even for the both of their standards. I'd expect some regression getting them down into the 50-60 goal range
Dion TheFluff
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If anyone’s capable of coming back and winning it’s him. He’s shown a higher level when he’s on than anyone else and I wouldn’t be surprised if no one on this list tops 55 or so. It’ll be interesting to see where he’s at when he’s back because he won’t have that much leeway though.
Draisaitl’s career high is 55, and he’s on pace for 59. The Oilers PP will no doubt heat up, but Draisaitl has never scored ES goals at this rate. He’s already at 13 and his career high is 31 but he only had 20 and 19 the last two years. He’s shooting almost 30% at ES when his shooting percentage at ES since his first 50 goal season in 18-19 is 17.2. That same shooting percentage would put him at 5 fewer ES goals on the year. The PP heating up will likely just keep up with his expected drop in ES goals. He might beat his career high this year, but I wouldn’t expect more than high 50s.
If Matthews comes back Wednesday as expected, he’d have 61 games left. Last year he had 55 goals in his final 61 games, which would put him at 60 this year. In his final 61 games in 21-22 he had 54 goals, which would put him at 59.
Obviously those are best case scenarios but Matthews has shown that it’s definitely realistic to think he can make up a 10 goal lead in 60 games. It’s just probably not the most likely scenario at this point.
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Video Nasty
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Worth noting that Reinhart shot 24.5% last season. He was at 25.0% through his first 20 games, so he didn’t exactly regress all that much the rest of the way. Not saying he’ll only drop back to 28% this time, but who really knows what’s normal for him right now?
I think Reinhart and Drai both hit 60.
That said, Matthews is that one player who has proven he can go off for GPG or around it for very long stretches, so I don’t blame anyone for sticking with him. I picked Drai, but if Matthews comes back on Wednesday and gets two, we may very well be seeing the start of another such stretch. Hard to bet against someone who just came off 69 goals.
leafsfan5
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Yeah it's why I said even for their standards. Reinhart generally shoots an incredibly high% so he won't fall off too heavily, but he won't stay at 28.8% forever. I don't know if anyone has ever shot that high in a whole season, would be crazy to see
If we dropped Reinhart down to his % from last year he would be at 13 goals in 20 games, a 53 goal pace. It's why I think he'll be in the 50-60 range (though mid to upper 50s due to his hot start) once his % cools down slightly
Video Nasty
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Totally fair points.
What I noticed about Reinhart is that he has had the exact same number of shots through 20 games in each of the past two seasons. Obviously, he has 15 goals this time compared to 13. He only took two shots total in Games 17-20 last year. Maybe a Panthers fan who watches him nightly can chime in and tell us what happened there around this time last year if they remember?
If he ups his shot totals to the 233 he had last season, instead of the 213 pace last year and this year so far, and drops back to 25%, that gets him to 60 right there.
Nathaniel Skywalker
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Voight
#winning
Quick search of some of the more notable goal scorers in history, best I got was Bossy @ 24% in 79, Lemieux 24% in 93, Gretzky at 26.7% in 84, Robitaille 24% in 1990. There could be others that high but I only checked a handful of names.
(full seasons or close to it only; Bure had 29% one year but he played only 11 games)
They didn't start calculating SH% until 1960, so one would have do the requisite math to see if Richard ever hit that high.
There’s been 5 guys with at least 40 goals who’ve been over 28%, all in the 80s
Charlie Simmer in ‘81: 56 goals, 32.8%
Craig Simpson in ‘88: 56 goals, 31.6%
Wendell Young in ‘85: 40 goals, 30.5%
Rob Brown in ‘89: 49 goals, 29.0%
Jari Kurri in ‘86: 68 goals, 28.8%
Though Kuzmenko shot 27.3% two years ago in his 39 goal season.
