Confirmed Trade: [MTL/NSH] P.K. Subban for Shea Weber - Part III

[KreamofAskarov]

I doubt this.

Look at it this way. If they think Weber is going to fall off before the end of the deal, they either penalize themselves by overpaying Weber for a few seasons, or they trade him now and eventually penalize themselves with cap recapture.

They were going to get hurt somehow with that contract either way, it was just a matter of time.

Nashville is a contender. They had a chance to swap Weber for at the very least a comparable player who is a few years younger, fits better with the age of their group, and is closer to his prime than Weber. He also costs less real money than Weber right now.

The most likely scenario is that Weber retires in 7 years when he is nearly 40 and his compensation drops to 1M. Nashville couldn't just pass up that opportunity in fear of getting hurt by cap recapture in 7 years. 7 years down the road is a very long time.

Although I doubt they've thought about it this far or are really worrying about it....because as I said, 7 years is a very long time away in hockey years, but with the age of their core players, they could time things so that they could blow things up and rebuild in time for that cap recapture albatross. Most of their key players are in their mid 20s right now.

The Subban trade basically gives them 7 years to make it worth it by winning a cup.

There is no way the league will let a small market team get penalized for 28 mil in cap hits. Especially from a rule that was created AFTER the deal was signed.

 

[KreamofAskarov]

Enough about who is on team Canada. MTL fans were going nuts when Subban was snubbed cause he was the best defender in the world and now he isn't?

Fact is, Weber is to slow for Laviolette style of hockey, he was getting eaten alive all season when the team had a 3-3 OT. What was the Preds record? 1-14? Anyone watched Weber in the playoffs vs the Sharks? Weber was a perfect Trotz player and I think he is a perfect Therrien player too. However, he will be exposed with a bigger market like Montreal and also with the speed that the East usually has. It won't be fun to watch the Toronto kids dance around Weber for a few years.

PK will flourish with the style of play Laviolette has and also with the potent offense Nashville has (it sounds weird saying that). That cycle game will be something to see.

Don't forget, the preds had 6-7 rookies this season. All of which played in the playoffs and gained valuable experience. They def have a brilliant future.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

There is no way the league will let a small market team get penalized for 28 mil in cap hits. Especially from a rule that was created AFTER the deal was signed.

Not to mention that it was the Flyers who negotiated that contract. The Predators basically had to match it.

 

[mashedpotato]

Sorry Habs fans, but your GM Is a moron. Subban was the best thing to happen to Habs since Price.

 

[KPower]

 

[Habsawce]

Sorry Habs fans, but your GM Is a moron. Subban was the best thing to happen to Habs since Price.

Don't need to feel sorry for us. We're feeling sorry enough for ourselves without any help. Thanks though.

 

[Boxscore]

Don't need to feel sorry for us. We're feeling sorry enough for ourselves without any help. Thanks though.

I love Subban but come on guys, Shea Weber isn't chopped liver here. The guy is the Canada's 2nd choice behind Doughty to anchor the D. He's a Top 5 blueliner in the game.

 

[sxvnert]

No dog in this fight but the Habs are better off with Weber. That me first attitude from Subban had to be annoying for everyone involved.

The long term ramifications are almost negligible since Price will be on the decline once Weber retires. The window to win is in the next 3-4 years and Weber puts them a step closer to realizing that dream.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Weber is on decline now ,, A small slight decline but it is noticeable to fans in Central

Also the Habs lineup as it is currently constructed is not good enough to win a cup so the 3-4 year window is a major problem

 

[DearDiary]

I love Subban but come on guys, Shea Weber isn't chopped liver here. The guy is the Canada's 2nd choice behind Doughty to anchor the D. He's a Top 5 blueliner in the game.

What do the Olympics have to do with the NHL? Weber isn't a top 10 D, much less top 5. Look at any top 15 poll on here, Weber is never mentioned. If I had time to look, I doubt I'd see Montreal fans giving Weber votes in the top 5.

 

[M.C.G. 31]

There is no way the league will let a small market team get penalized for 28 mil in cap hits. Especially from a rule that was created AFTER the deal was signed.

Especially when Philadelphia negotiated the deal.

The league might give Nashville a small cap penalty but that'll be that. It won't be those ridiculous figures we've seen out there.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

There is no way the league will let a small market team get penalized for 28 mil in cap hits. Especially from a rule that was created AFTER the deal was signed.

For cap recapture, the most likely scenario would be the cap gets spread over 3 years. There's a very good chance that if you bet on when Weber will retire, it will be when his compensation drops to 1M per, which means 3 years will be left on the contract.

There's always a chance the NHL will add a rule into the CBA in 2022 that cap recapture on contracts that were matched as offer sheets is void, but Nashville probably didn't make this trade with that in mind.

This trade was probably made with the idea that Nashville knows they can get screwed over cap wise, but it won't be for another 6-7 years, which is a very long time in the hockey world. Because of the disparity in the trade, it was worth it for Nashville to pull the trigger and take a risk that they might suffer cap recapture in 6-7 years. If they think Subban is better than Weber, which they probably do, then getting a better player who is 4 years younger is well worth the risk that in 7 years they'd face about 8M of cap penalties a season for three seasons (roughly 24M divided over three seasons).

There's also a few other factors here that make this a good gamble for Nashville. Nashville does not always spend to the cap. Last year they had something like 10 million in excess space, this year they are primed to have between 6-7. If they aren't intending to be a cap team, getting hit with 8 million a year for 3 years (since Weber is most likely to retire with 3 years remaining) isn't going to be a big deal. Especially when you consider the possibility that in 7 years time, even if the cap only goes up by small amounts, it'll add up to making a big difference. Nashville already spends under the cap, add another 5 million to the cap over 7 seasons (which is an extremely conservative estimate), and that 8 million penalty will not matter all that much.

The odds of Weber playing through his entire contract are greater than him retiring with 1 or 2 years left. Either he likes hockey enough and isn't banged up enough for him to decide to play for what amounts to free (1M per pre-taxes) or he is banged up and retires with 3 years left once his actual salary drops to 1M. If Weber is still playing when he is making 1M per, odds are, he'll play through the deal or be forced out of the game by a legitimate injury that would put him on LTIR.

 

[Wats]

I wouldn't be surprised if Weber is traded in year or two. He's regressing and has unreal pressure to preform. Subban is made for such a market...hopefully Weber is ready.

 

[TT1]

What do the Olympics have to do with the NHL? Weber isn't a top 10 D, much less top 5. Look at any top 15 poll on here, Weber is never mentioned. If I had time to look, I doubt I'd see Montreal fans giving Weber votes in the top 5.

i like your argument. Weber isnt top 5 D, let alone a top 10 D because of HF polls, plz disregard the opinions of NHL GM's and listen to the internet!

 

[TouzY]

My daughter agrees. It's a few days later, so this is just funny now:

Bergevin ruining lives again, Watta-******.

 

[glenbuis]

itll be nice to see a lot more leadership and character and a whole lot less drama and conflict. its going on 24 years now. time to get serious here . used to be we,d never wait longer than seven years. How many teammates have there been run ins with 5-6 ? anyone who cant acknowledge there was not a little problem there is simply denying it. Team first and stay focused.

 

[Keep Sorokin Me Babe]

What do the Olympics have to do with the NHL? Weber isn't a top 10 D, much less top 5. Look at any top 15 poll on here, Weber is never mentioned. If I had time to look, I doubt I'd see Montreal fans giving Weber votes in the top 5.

Yeah, Weber wasn't even the best dman on the team, even according to the majority of "experts" on TV. Last season he would just pass it to Josi who would do all the work skating it out. Montreal needs to find a LD to pair him with who can do this job, it definitely can't be Markov and probably not Beaulieu either. I'd go hard for Fowler if I were Bergevin

 

[bleedgreen]

I honestly like the real for both teams, neither of which are teams I root for or against.

Impressive undervaluing of Weber. For whatever reason they had, and I'm sure it wasn't just MB, they didn't want to deal with Subban and moved him before hey we're locked in. If they had reasons, they had reasons. I'm sure there was more going on behind the scenes than we know. I honestly think Weber is the better defenseman right now. I like Subban but if you had one game and one choice I'd choose Weber.

I think Subban will do great in Nashville and kudos to them for pulling off the trade. I just don't believe the Canadians got hosed. I don't think they could find a better one for one once they made he decision to move Subban.

 

[Mr Positive]

I don't envy Bergevin. Most teams just want to make moves to win hockey games. He obviously has other objectives on his plate, and probably not by his own choice.

Subban is a much better asset than Weber, but there are ways that Weber is better than Subban. Bergevin made a deal to preserve his defense. If he would have dealt with the Oilers he would have got a crazy amount of value but his defense would have no #1D on it anymore, with no hope of getting one.

He lost out for the future. However, Price is in his prime and ready to win. Weber can fill Subban's shoes and maybe he'll get better numbers out east than he did in the extremely brutal Central division. Bergevin also added some interesting players this offseason. With a healthy Price, the Habs could go on a major run this upcoming season.

 

[hockeyfan2k11]

No dog in this fight but the Habs are better off with Weber. That me first attitude from Subban had to be annoying for everyone involved.

The long term ramifications are almost negligible since Price will be on the decline once Weber retires. The window to win is in the next 3-4 years and Weber puts them a step closer to realizing that dream.

Me first? Oh really? How is he a me first player? I find that PK has been labeled a NBA, prima donna because of obvious reasons and people are just characterizing him as that. Loud, me first, arrogant jerk. A la diva wide receiver. Pretty sad.

 

[hockeyfan2k11]

itll be nice to see a lot more leadership and character and a whole lot less drama and conflict. its going on 24 years now. time to get serious here . used to be we,d never wait longer than seven years. How many teammates have there been run ins with 5-6 ? anyone who cant acknowledge there was not a little problem there is simply denying it. Team first and stay focused.

So there was no problem for so many years....the locker room was so great...and now all of a sudden there's a problem and that problem is PK? LMAO! People are coming up with anything.

 

[Oliewud]

You can find multiple videos of Subban getting into altercations with his teammates on youtube. That's not a good sign.

There's a line and PK seems to cross it A LOT. He's a phenomenal player, but he needs a bit of an attitude adjustment IMO. There's a fine line between leadership and arrogance.

I think this trade will actually make him a better player/leader. Great trade for the Preds.

 

[oilerbear]

2014 olympics Weber was only defensemen with a letter on his jersey so he was captain of team canada defense. Subban only made roster because of an injury and only played one game I believe. He's too much of a liability defensively. People only say Nashville won deal because four years between them. Who cares, four years isn't that much.

Man I want Weber back in gold

for the longest time it was hard to define Def Dman play.

Their are 25 - 33 shots in a game. 29 avg

Low scoring chance shots are .915 to .995 save% shots.
0.5 to 8.5% go in.
8.5 is league average shooting %
there are 17-20 LSC shots.
18.5 avg

High scoring chance shots are .915 to .800 save% shots
8.5 to 20% go in.
there are 7.5 to to 13.5 HSC shots.
10.5 is average.

you can take the Sa/60 and HSCA shot agisnt per 60 to get an expected Even and PK GA.

when you look at the best expected GA d in the game from 04-05 lockout.
the names are obvious.
Pronger
Lidstrom
Weber
Hjarlmasson
Doughty
last 2 years Adam Larsson.
Thank you PC Larsson for hall any day!

You want strong HSCA D. cause it is part of a Cup winning formula.
1. Top 8 HSCA save% goalie.
2. 3+ low HSCA & low SA D
3. depth at Even forward production.

MTl
1. top 5 HSCA golaies.
1. Price
2. holtby
3. schnieder
4. Lundquist
5. Talbot
thanks MacT for arranging the trade with sather!

2. Weber top 10 HSCA D; #73 GA D 2.04
Petry top 80 HSCA D versus EC, bottom 40 against WC.

Top 90 SA D and GA/60
#44 Barberio 26.95
#47 Pateryn 27.08
Beaulieu #90 SA 28.21; #39 GA 1.92
Markov #66 GA 2.02
Emelin #89 GA 2.11


3. top 165 Even production Forwards last 2 years combined.
#25 Pacioretty 2.12
#87 Gallagher
#109 Galchenyuk
#154 Desharnais 1.67
#162 Plekanec 1.65

Subban bottom 80 HSCA D.
30.49 SA/60 way above average.

Subban does not have cup caliber defence.

 

[Boxscore]

i like your argument. Weber isnt top 5 D, let alone a top 10 D because of HF polls, plz disregard the opinions of NHL GM's and listen to the internet!

Right. If anyone thinks Weber isn't an elite NHL defenseman they're crazy. Subban is as well, but Weber is probably all-around better for the Habs for the next 2 years.

 

[sxvnert]

Weber is on decline now ,, A small slight decline but it is noticeable to fans in Central

Also the Habs lineup as it is currently constructed is not good enough to win a cup so the 3-4 year window is a major problem

Can't argue with that.