Confirmed with Link: Morgan Frost new contract 2 x $2.1m

[wasup]

Where a player is drafted matters in terms of raw talent, you don't get drafted high without it.
Kotkaniemi was picked #3, Tippett #10 based on physical skill, neither will probably live up to their draft spot but that skill still gives them a high floor (unless they're mental cases, the usual reason a player totally flops).
Frost was #27 for a reason, Suzuki was #13 in that draft, people here used to think Frost was as good, but Suzuki had a NHL body to go with a similar skill package.

One reason the Flyers have pushed for Frost to get stronger and play a more rounded game is he lacks the elite skill of the top "smurfs," he has very good speed but lacks top end vision or "shake and bake." That's why he's best in open ice where he can use his speed, and probably why he struggles on the PP where he has to make plays from a "stationary" position. It also may explain why he's so much better against weak defenses - more room to operate. Working in tight windows is a key to elite offensive play. Which is why I think his ceiling is an offense first 2C. His floor is a mediocre 3C who's a liability on defense.

Twarynski should have been a solid 4th liner, heck, Haskstol thought enough of him to claim him in the ED. Some players just never get it together, Vorobyev took two years of bottom six minutes in the KHL to learn how to play, Bunnaman never developed a set of hands. 4th line isn't exactly a high hurdle. I mean VdV started for 3 years.

You just don,t quit when you are down I will give you that .

 

[blackjackmulligan]

If Briere got this deal knowing Frost is good, then it would be good. They are not aware it is good. They have no idea what Frost is. They're too stupid.

You have proclaimed left and right that Frost sucks and is a bust. You've been wrong.

proclaimed no such thing. go back and re-read what I have said.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Where a player is drafted matters in terms of raw talent, you don't get drafted high without it.
Kotkaniemi was picked #3, Tippett #10 based on physical skill, neither will probably live up to their draft spot but that skill still gives them a high floor (unless they're mental cases, the usual reason a player totally flops).
Frost was #27 for a reason, Suzuki was #13 in that draft, people here used to think Frost was as good, but Suzuki had a NHL body to go with a similar skill package.

One reason the Flyers have pushed for Frost to get stronger and play a more rounded game is he lacks the elite skill of the top "smurfs," he has very good speed but lacks top end vision or "shake and bake." That's why he's best in open ice where he can use his speed, and probably why he struggles on the PP where he has to make plays from a "stationary" position. It also may explain why he's so much better against weak defenses - more room to operate. Working in tight windows is a key to elite offensive play. Which is why I think his ceiling is an offense first 2C. His floor is a mediocre 3C who's a liability on defense.

Twarynski should have been a solid 4th liner, heck, Haskstol thought enough of him to claim him in the ED. Some players just never get it together, Vorobyev took two years of bottom six minutes in the KHL to learn how to play, Bunnaman never developed a set of hands. 4th line isn't exactly a high hurdle. I mean VdV started for 3 years.

#13 is a high draft pick. #27 is a high draft pick. Why do we have to do this every time?

I don't want to have the Nick Suzuki discussion because he's clearly a good player. But people want him to be something he's just never been. He finishes above guys like Pettersson and Dahlin when they do general fan polls, so I just don't talk about him. Discourse melts to goo the second it goes near him.

 

[Tripod]

From the ALL important Dec 7th date, you know, when Torts set his lines:

Frost 36 ES pts
Suzuki 26 ES pts

 

[Curufinwe]

One reason the Flyers have pushed for Frost to get stronger and play a more rounded game is he lacks the elite skill of the top "smurfs,"

 

[deadhead]

From the ALL important Dec 7th date, you know, when Torts set his lines:

Frost 36 ES pts
Suzuki 26 ES pts

Frost has a good 56 game stretch, after being over matched at 20, injured at 21, mediocre at 22.

I agree with JoJo that Suzuki may be overrated, and he's definitely overpaid, but he's been starting since he was 20, and has 38 and 46 ES points the last two seasons. 8x$7.9M is a lot for a guy who hasn't show he's more than a 2C , so they're betting on him making a jump the next couple seasons.

Both TK and Farabee had multiple full seasons before they got their big extensions.
You want a couple full seasons to evaluate a player, in bigger roles and after the league has time to adjust to that player.

This applies to Frost, Tippett, Cates and York, just not enough data to justify a long-term commitment at this time.
Of course, if they show themselves worthy of long-term deals the next couple years, you can probably kiss a bottom ten finish goodbye!

 

[Curufinwe]

ChatGrandPaT is at again.

 

[VladDrag]

I’m sure @VladDrag has something to say about Frost’s WAR not being accurately representative/predictive of his microstats and in-season growth.

I'm going to start by saying I'm not 100% sure how J Fresh breaks down his WAR numbers. I know it's from Patrick Bacon, but that's about the extent of it. I don't know if these are total or if these are rates or what. I know nothing about them. I assume that the WAR number presented by J Fresh are full season as well. Which we know that Frost got better as the year went on.

Also, we need to understand what WAR/GAR numbers attempt to do. For the most part, WAR/GAR attempts to provide a total value of a player. It attempts to represent how much a player has contributed to their team. In essence, it's an attempt to identify a players impact, not potential or skill level. It's up to the person developing the calculations to weight what is most important. This is why you'll see variations in different WAR/GAR values.

What I can tell you is that the data from Patrick Bacon and Evolving Hockey (EH) don't quite match. From Evolving Hockey, Frost's ES Offensive GAR ranks him in the 50th percentile and his ES Offensive xGAR ranks him in the 66th percentile. J Fresh shows Frost in the 32nd percentile for ES Offense. EH also presents Frost as an above average defensive player as well (GAR - 50 percentile, xGAR - 57 percentile). So for some reason, Patrick Bacon's model shows Frost was less impactful than EH's shows. I don't know why, and I don't know which one is more correct.

However, what I can say is that Hockey viz presents Frost as a player who had an increase of xGF relative to the rest of his teammates and decreased xGA relative to the rest of his teammates(3% increase in xGF and a 3% decrease in xGA). Basically, this means that he was a bit better offensively and defensively than the rest of the team.

New to this year, Hockey Viz also has a new metric called synthetic goals (sG), and it's kind of like WAR/GAR stats, but also not quite. It attempts to do the same thing, but it does it in different ways. Hockey Viz does not give you values, but rather attempts to rank players by line (1st, 2nd, 3rd etc). Frost's sG from last season placed him at a very high level 3rd liner/low level 2nd liner. This makes sense given his poor first third, decent middle third and good final third.

Basically what I would say is that the numbers above from all three places are fairly similar. It shows Frost's 22-23 season as a middle-6/bottom-6 type player. That would make sense given his season's ark.

I could keep going, but it's not really worth it.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

@VladDrag I haven’t read the sG writeup yet, but there is one piece of the puzzle I can make a little clearer.

GAR and xGAR are better tools for evaluating specifically playmaking Forwards because they have a mechanism for inclusion of increases or decreases in teammates’ finishing. Frost should be higher there. That’s working as intended.

The converse of this is also true. GAR and xGAR are not where I would go for Defensemen as a first choice because there is no evidence they can meaningfully impact linemates’ shooting talent.

 

[deadhead]

Basically what I would say is that the numbers above from all three places are fairly similar. It shows Frost's 22-23 season as a middle-6/bottom-6 type player. That would make sense given his season's ark.

I could keep going, but it's not really worth it.

That's why I look at the last 56 games, when lines were set.

Frost clearly improved, and JFresh obviously underrates him off the full season.
But the xGF numbers suggest Frost may have also been the recipient of "puck luck," which tends to even out.

If Couts and Atkinson are healthy, and Farabee can play at full strength, we should get a better read on both Frost and Cates.
Both should have solid wings, out of some mix of Farabee, Atkinson, TK, Tippett, Farabee and Laughton.
And if Couts can take the 1C spot, there will be less pressure and better matchups for both young centers.

 

[VladDrag]

@VladDrag I haven’t read the sG writeup yet, but there is one piece of the puzzle I can make a little clearer.

GAR and xGAR are better tools for evaluating specifically playmaking Forwards because they have a mechanism for inclusion of increases or decreases in teammates’ finishing. Frost should be higher there. That’s working as intended.

The converse of this is also true. GAR and xGAR are not where I would go for Defensemen as a first choice because there is no evidence they can meaningfully impact linemates’ shooting talent.

It’s on his site, sG: Synthetic Goals


He says it shouldn’t be viewed as a comparable stat to GAR, but to me it’s effectively trying to do the same thing.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

@VladDrag I haven’t read the sG writeup yet, but there is one piece of the puzzle I can make a little clearer.

GAR and xGAR are better tools for evaluating specifically playmaking Forwards because they have a mechanism for inclusion of increases or decreases in teammates’ finishing. Frost should be higher there. That’s working as intended.

The converse of this is also true. GAR and xGAR are not where I would go for Defensemen as a first choice because there is no evidence they can meaningfully impact linemates’ shooting talent.

anyone ever see GWAR in concert?

 

[Beef Invictus]

That's why I look at the last 56 games, when lines were set.

This is fictional. Lines were never set at any hard date.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I hope they put Frost and Tippett together in camp to see if they can still click together. They seemed to feed off each other in the 2nd half of the season

 

[blackjackmulligan]

So who do you peeps think will flank Frost on the wing come game one.

 

[deadhead]

Farabee - Couts - TK
Tippett - Frost - Atkinson
Laughton - Cates - Foerster
Deslauriers - Poehling - Hathaway

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Farabee - Couts - TK
Tippett - Frost - Atkinson
Laughton - Cates - Foerster
Deslauriers - Poehling - Hathaway

def a rebuilding lineup for a rebuilding team. Not so sure GH starts on the 4th line.

Just a very unimposing uninspired offensive lineup.

 

[ponder719]

anyone ever see GWAR in concert?

No, but I've done some rough calculations, and Dethklok grades out pretty well in xGWAR.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

So who do you peeps think will flank Frost on the wing come game one.

you mean on the bench?

 

[Philly Fanatik]

Wouldn’t be one bit surprised if the Flyers waive Frost…not one bit!

 

[BillDineen]

Wouldn’t be one bit surprised if the Flyers waive Frost…not one bit!

What Torts wants, Torts gets

 

[trostol]

Wouldn’t be one bit surprised if the Flyers waive Frost…not one bit!

My hope is that Danny isn't that f***ing stupid

 

[deadhead]

They're not going to waive Frost, some of this is his slow start, some of this is seeing if the hot streak is for real or a mirage, some of this is may be wanting to evaluate Foerster and decide whether to keep him on the team, some of this may be showcasing other players you might think about trading if you keep Foerster.

They might trade Frost if they feel he's not a guy they want to build around, but that would probably be part of a package to obtain a center they like better or a young RHD.

 

[Sombastate]

I’m officially on the f*** Torts train

 

[Cody Webster]

They're not going to waive Frost, some of this is his slow start, some of this is seeing if the hot streak is for real or a mirage, some of this is may be wanting to evaluate Foerster and decide whether to keep him on the team, some of this may be showcasing other players you might think about trading if you keep Foerster.

They might trade Frost if they feel he's not a guy they want to build around, but that would probably be part of a package to obtain a center they like better or a young RHD.

Whatever it is, you don't keep the same guy out of line up for 3 of the first 5 games, unless you have a coach that is an absolute dickhead...which Torts is, so I guess it isn't that surprising