Confirmed with Link: Morgan Frost new contract 2 x $2.1m

[Beef Invictus]

You think Frost should get new agent then?

How many rights do you thinks RFA's have?

I think the Flyers should stop aggressively undervaluing good players while aggressively overvaluing depth guys.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Frost got a reasonable deal for someone with a limited and puzzling track record.
He scored at a 1st line rate the last 56 games, 2.43 pp/60 (39th among forwards) but padded against weak defenses, and struggled against good teams.
He improved defensively to be acceptable, but was awful on the PP.

Now how do you value a guy like that off 2/3 of a season?

During that stretch:
TK 2.14 (80)
Tippett 1.94 (108)
Farabee 1.62 (179)
Cates 1.56 (187)

Laughton 1.40 (227)
Allison 1.02 (283)

JVR 1.71 (157), Hayes 1.34 (235), Brown 1.03 (282)
[Hathaway 1.75 (152)], Couts, Atkinson, Foerster

But xGF/60 over the same period:
Hayes 2.93 (90)
Tippett 2.87 (103)
TK 2.85 (105)
Laughton 2.78 (130)
JVR 2.71 (148)
Allison 2.65 (168)
Frost 2.62 (175)
[Hathaway 2.59 (185)]
Farabee 2.57 (193)
Cates 2.55 (199)
Brown 2.13 (280)

Frost "overscored", Laughton and Allison "underscored."
Which is why a GM would want a larger sample before risking big money or writing a player off.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

How many rights do you thinks RFA's have?

I think the Flyers should stop aggressively undervaluing good players while aggressively overvaluing depth guys.

how did the flyers get a good deal by accident then?

Frost got a reasonable deal for someone with a limited and puzzling track record.
He scored at a 1st line rate the last 56 games, 2.43 pp/60 (39th among forwards) but padded against weak defenses, and struggled against good teams.
He improved defensively to be acceptable, but was awful on the PP.

Now how do you value a guy like that off 2/3 of a season?

During that stretch:
TK 2.14 (80)
Tippett 1.94 (108)
Farabee 1.62 (179)
Cates 1.56 (187)

Laughton 1.40 (227)
Allison 1.02 (283)

JVR 1.71 (157), Hayes 1.34 (235), Brown 1.03 (282)
[Hathaway 1.75 (152)], Couts, Atkinson, Foerster

But xGF/60 over the same period:
Hayes 2.93 (90)
Tippett 2.87 (103)
TK 2.85 (105)
Laughton 2.78 (130)
JVR 2.71 (148)
Allison 2.65 (168)
Frost 2.62 (175)
[Hathaway 2.59 (185)]
Farabee 2.57 (193)
Cates 2.55 (199)
Brown 2.13 (280)

Frost "overscored", Laughton and Allison "underscored."
Which is why a GM would want a larger sample before risking big money or writing a player off.

seems like a good deal for both parties. Not sure what the bellyaching is about. Guess the frost fan club wanted him to get more money

 

[Beef Invictus]

how did the flyers get a good deal by accident then?


seems like a good deal for both parties. Not sure what the bellyaching is about. Guess the frost fan club wanted him to get more money

Because Frost is a good player. They don't realize he's good, so they lowballed him aggressively. Meanwhile they throw money at a 4C. They undervalue good and overvalue bad. It's more of the same process that sees them refusing to trade Laughton at peak value.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Because Frost is a good player. They don't realize he's good, so they lowballed him aggressively. Meanwhile they throw money at a 4C. They undervalue good and overvalue bad. It's more of the same process that sees them refusing to trade Laughton at peak value.

they did? can you share how you know this.

If a lowball why did Frost and his agent agree to such a bad deal.

 

[Beef Invictus]

they did? can you share how you know this.

If a lowball why did Frost and his agent agree to such a bad deal.

Do you understand that he isn't a UFA?

We know this because it took so long and we can see that they signed him below value relative to other things they've shown valuation of. It's readily observable.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Do you understand that he isn't a UFA?

We know this because it took so long and we can see that they signed him below value relative to other things they've shown valuation of. It's readily observable.

this is just your take. You have no idea what was offered and what they talked about.

Signing a player below value used to be a good thing, when did that change? Are you upset Frost didnt get more money?

 

[Beef Invictus]

this is just your take. You have no idea what was offered and what they talked about.

Signing a player below value used to be a good thing, when did that change? Are you upset Frost didnt get more money?

My take on this as usual is correct, I bet. You've been wrong on all things Frost for a long time.

Signing a player below value because you know they're good and are getting a deal on them is good. Signing them below value because you've missed the bus on what they are for years straight, that isn't good.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

My take on this as usual is correct, I bet. You've been wrong on all things Frost for a long time.

Signing a player below value because you know they're good and are getting a deal on them is good. Signing them below value because you've missed the bus on what they are for years straight, that isn't good.

your take on this contract and the negotiation is nothing but your opinion. They low balled him lol. what all things frost have I been wrong on?

is it really that hard for you to say that Briere (who is a known frost fan) did a good job getting this deal?

 

[zizbuka]

your take on this contract and the negotiation is nothing but your opinion. They low balled him lol. what all things frost have I been wrong on?

is it really that hard for you to say that Briere (who is a known frost fan) did a good job getting this deal?

You must be a braindead alt...........

Frost makes less than Garnet Hathaway and a little more than Nic Deslauriers. Let that sink in.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

You must be a braindead alt...........

Frost makes less than Garnet Hathaway and a little more than Nic Deslauriers. Let that sink in.

and what exactly is your point here? Has zero to do with what beef and I are discussing.

 

[deadhead]

You must be a braindead alt...........

Frost makes less than Garnet Hathaway and a little more than Nic Deslauriers. Let that sink in.

He's also an RFA with years before he reaches UFA status, they were signed as UFAs. Apples and oranges.

It's hard to judge Frost right now, his performance was unusual, high 5x5 scoring relative to creating scoring opportunities when he's on the ice, padding his stats against weak sisters, but producing at a 1st line level when he got 2nd line PT. Bad on the PP, untried on the PK. In two years, they'll have a much better idea who he is (this also applies to Cates and Tippett and York), at which time they'll have plenty of cap room to extend them if deemed worthy.

 

[Magua]

What would a bad deal have looked like in salary for a 2 year bridge? These are such by-the-book numbers, give or take, that praising the negotiating of Briere makes me chortle. The point is debating the merits of a bridge deal. And if I have to hear that Frost actually chose this contract to “bet on himself,” I’ll enter into a fugue state.

 

[deadhead]

What would a bad deal have looked like in salary for a 2 year bridge? These are such by-the-book numbers, give or take, that praising the negotiating of Briere makes me chortle. The point is debating the merits of a bridge deal. And if I have to hear that Frost actually chose this contract to “bet on himself,” I’ll enter into a fugue state.

Well, he wasn't going to get the same deal TK got for obvious reasons.
So what would have been a long-term deal that you would have accepted?

 

[Beef Invictus]

your take on this contract and the negotiation is nothing but your opinion. They low balled him lol. what all things frost have I been wrong on?

is it really that hard for you to say that Briere (who is a known frost fan) did a good job getting this deal?

If Briere got this deal knowing Frost is good, then it would be good. They are not aware it is good. They have no idea what Frost is. They're too stupid.

You have proclaimed left and right that Frost sucks and is a bust. You've been wrong.

 

[Magua]

Well, he wasn't going to get the same deal TK got for obvious reasons.
So what would have been a long-term deal that you would have accepted?

I imagine if the offer was $4.x MM, we are talking a realistic long-term framework. Carolina is a contender right now, and they take smart risks like signing Kotkaniemi to an 8 year contract at $4.82MM. We know where each front office ranks across the league.

The issue is Tortorella and a backwater management group. Tortorella would never advocate for signing Frost long-term, and there’s a good chance he will underuse him next year (Meltzer mentioned a hang-up was Frost’s role). There isn’t a chance in hell the team even considered anything but a bridge. The only reason Frost flirted with 50 points and wasn’t trade bait (for now) was because of Briere. But when it comes to the triumvirate, we know where the majority sits.

 

[deadhead]

Kotkaniemi was the 3rd pick in the draft, started in the NHL at 18.
Carolina bet on Montreal screwing him up by rushing him to the NHL and figured at worse he'd be a solid middle six forward who wouldn't be much of an overpay if he never gets past his floor.
Kotkaniemi is 6'2, 210 and is willing to play physical, so at worst he's a solid forechecking energy guy with size and speed.
His 8 year deal started at 22 years old.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Kotkaniemi was the 3rd pick in the draft, started in the NHL at 18.
Carolina bet on Montreal screwing him up by rushing him to the NHL and figured at worse he'd be a solid middle six forward who wouldn't be much of an overpay if he never gets past his floor.
Kotkaniemi is 6'2, 210 and is willing to play physical, so at worst he's a solid forechecking energy guy with size and speed.
His 8 year deal started at 22 years old.

Nothing here refutes anything said.

 

[Magua]

Kotkaniemi had 29 points in 66 games the year he signed his contract. Frost and Kotkaniemi were both 3 years from UFA. One being age 24 and the other being age 22 isn’t as drastic as it’s being made out. The younger had 79 more career games and less productivity — everything about draft status is irrelevant. And we’re not even getting into the $6.1MM offer-sheet.

Carolina trusts their evaluations more, has better processes, and is more willing to take risks.

 

[deadhead]

Kotkaniemi had 29 points in 66 games the year he signed his contract. Frost and Kotkaniemi were both 3 years from UFA. One being age 24 and the other being age 22 isn’t as drastic as it’s being made out. The younger had 79 more career games and less productivity — everything about draft status is irrelevant. And we’re not even getting into the $6.1MM offer-sheet.

Carolina trusts their evaluations more, has better processes, and is more willing to take risks.

Tippett is a closer parallel to Kotkaniemi, shouldn't they have signed him long-term to a discounted deal?
He's big, fast and physical, his floor is also that of a middle six "energy guy."

Frost has a lower floor b/c if he can't score, he's pretty much useless, if it turns out last year's production was an artifact of padding stats against bad defenses, a Kotkaniemi type deal would look pretty bad.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Tippett is a closer parallel to Kotkaniemi, shouldn't they have signed him long-term to a discounted deal?
He's big, fast and physical, his floor is also that of a middle six "energy guy."

Frost has a lower floor b/c if he can't score, he's pretty much useless, if it turns out last year's production was an artifact of padding stats against bad defenses, a Kotkaniemi type deal would look pretty bad.

A complete fabrication.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Now where someone was drafted and what they did before going pro matters quite a bit.

I remember the Twarynski Debacle of 2019. My man was “impressive” for 37 Minutes and couldn’t possibly be sent down. This is quite the change.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[deadhead]

Now where someone was drafted and what they did before going pro matters quite a bit.

I remember the Twarynski Debacle of 2019. My man was “impressive” for 37 Minutes and couldn’t possibly be sent down. This is quite the change.

Where a player is drafted matters in terms of raw talent, you don't get drafted high without it.
Kotkaniemi was picked #3, Tippett #10 based on physical skill, neither will probably live up to their draft spot but that skill still gives them a high floor (unless they're mental cases, the usual reason a player totally flops).
Frost was #27 for a reason, Suzuki was #13 in that draft, people here used to think Frost was as good, but Suzuki had a NHL body to go with a similar skill package.

One reason the Flyers have pushed for Frost to get stronger and play a more rounded game is he lacks the elite skill of the top "smurfs," he has very good speed but lacks top end vision or "shake and bake." That's why he's best in open ice where he can use his speed, and probably why he struggles on the PP where he has to make plays from a "stationary" position. It also may explain why he's so much better against weak defenses - more room to operate. Working in tight windows is a key to elite offensive play. Which is why I think his ceiling is an offense first 2C. His floor is a mediocre 3C who's a liability on defense.

Twarynski should have been a solid 4th liner, heck, Haskstol thought enough of him to claim him in the ED. Some players just never get it together, Vorobyev took two years of bottom six minutes in the KHL to learn how to play, Bunnaman never developed a set of hands. 4th line isn't exactly a high hurdle. I mean VdV started for 3 years.

 

[Magua]

Tippett’s agent should be fired for not demanding more than Jason Robertson.