Confirmed with Link: Mittelstadt re-signed (3 years, $5.75M AAV)

[Balthazar]

Landeskog and Nuke really screwing the Avs

I hope this contract has nothing to do with those 2.

 

[Bender]

Also a Sabres fan. Casey publicly said that nobody from the Sabres org reached out to him for an extension at all. Then he got traded. Adams wouldn't know what Casey wanted because Kevyn Adams never spoke with Casey's agent about an extension.

Sabres drama aside I think this is a reasonable deal for everybody and any criticism of term/AAV is more about the Av's cap management overall then it is about Mitts actual value. Looking at it through that lens makes it seem like a good contract to somebody on the outside.

It looks like a pretty good deal to me as well, I don't know why people are saying it isn't.

Honestly, I would have been surprised if he would have signed long-term under $6M as he has the numbers to justify making over that much.

If you would have told me not that long ago that we'd have a #2C locked-up for the next 3 years at under $6M, I wouldn't have believed it.

Now it happens and people complain.

It's not a great deal for a rebuilding club still trying to get all the right pieces in place but for the Avs and where they are at, it's a good deal.

This is setup to give us the maximum flexibility for when Makar's deal expires.

 

[Go19]

For a guy that's about to have his 3 best seasons, it'll be more than fair by the end of the deal

That bar is pretty low - has yet to hit 20 goals or 60 points in 6 seasons. His Avalanche stats projected to 18/19 goals this year. He needs to step it up big IMO.

 

[henchman21]

This is where I probably fall on the wrong side of the board (among the many ways actually)
I think even at $4m, considering the rising cap that will be mid-low 3rd line money.
Seeing Drouin adjust and improve his 2 way game just this season makes me confident $3-4m will still prove a value.

Here's the problems I see with Drouin. He's 29 and typically, those players are in a downturn or going to be in a downturn soon. There's a strong chance that this was the best season he will ever have in the NHL. He's pretty injury prone. This year was clearly an exception, but this was his first full season since 18-19 (yeah I know there are PAP issues in there too). Odds are low he will be this healthy again. He was on a pure prove it deal last season. His NHL career depended on playing well last season. That is the most motivation he's likely to have going forward in his career. Say he gets a 6 year deal, that hunger could decrease. Drouin was also highly dependent on two things for points... MacK and the PP. On the PP 19 of his points were there. Which in an ideal world, Drouin isn't on the top PP unit but he was. If he gets bumped, that is going to hurt those number. On MacK, 22 of Drouin's 35 5v5 points came withe Mack. Drouin had ~1100 5v5 minutes. ~630 were with MacK. His p/60 rate with MacK was 2.09 without Mack they were 1.66. Don't get me wrong 1.66 is still not bad at all... but we move from a legit top 6 rate to a fringe middle 6 rate.

There is certainly a possibility for upside to Drouin with term, but I simply think there is a lot of risk/reward to it. The reward is you potentially get a top 6 forward for around ~4m for a while. The risk is you end up with a guy you have to staple to MacK to get value out of, and if you don't there's a decent chance he's a $4m PP specialist who is on the books for 6 years.

 

[Avs9296]

If Ross Colton is "paid fairly" at 4 million, Casey Mittelstadt is a fken steal at 5.75.

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

This is not the term I was hoping for, but the AAV is good.

I was really hoping for 5+ years, so I’m a little disappointed, but the reality is that this team probably only has a 3 year window left anyways, so not a big deal.

Really liked what I saw from him this year and think he’s going to be a rock solid 2C for this team going forward. I think he’ll easily outperform the $5.75M, considering everything he brings beyond the points.

 

[Balthazar]

If Ross Colton is "paid fairly" at 4 million, Casey Mittelstadt is a fken steal at 5.75.

3 UFA years vs 1 UFA year

 

[Bender]

So we have any idea where an arbitration result would land? A general range?
4-4.5?
4.5-5?
5-5.5?
5.5-6?

If you look at how centers producing between 55 and 60 points are being paid and him coming off back-to-back 59 and 57 year seasons, it's probably around $6M or maybe a bit more and then the Avs would have been in this situation again after 1 year and maybe the player has even more leverage at that point.

 

[Balthazar]

the reality is that this team probably only has a 3 year window left anyways, so not a big deal.

It's gonna be awkward when they re-up Makar at 15M X 8 with a window that just closed.

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

It's gonna be awkward when they re-up Makar at 15M X 8 with a window that just closed.

Yeah, in three years time it will be Makar playing with a bunch of fossils, but that’s a tomorrow problem.

Still plenty to be optimistic about with this group for the remainder of this Mittelstadt deal.

 

[henchman21]

If you look at how centers producing between 55 and 60 points are being paid and him coming off back-to-back 59 and 57 year seasons, it's probably around $6M or maybe a bit more and then the Avs would have been in this situation again after 1 year and maybe the player has even more leverage at that point.

The arbitration cases are based on play prior to the contract. This would probably peg Zegras/Cirelli as the high end and JEE as the low end. In that 5.25-5.75 range where.

 

[chet1926]

Yikes this sucks, terrible contract.

Not a great start for CMac this summer.

 

[Vk1ing]

Yeah, in three years time it will be Makar playing with a bunch of fossils, but that’s a tomorrow problem.

Still plenty to be optimistic about with this group for the remainder of this Mittelstadt deal.

Just Kardi and Huberdeau, the rest of the flames will probably be young

 

[Avs44]

Here's the problems I see with Drouin. He's 29 and typically, those players are in a downturn or going to be in a downturn soon. There's a strong chance that this was the best season he will ever have in the NHL. He's pretty injury prone. This year was clearly an exception, but this was his first full season since 18-19 (yeah I know there are PAP issues in there too). Odds are low he will be this healthy again. He was on a pure prove it deal last season. His NHL career depended on playing well last season. That is the most motivation he's likely to have going forward in his career. Say he gets a 6 year deal, that hunger could decrease. Drouin was also highly dependent on two things for points... MacK and the PP. On the PP 19 of his points were there. Which in an ideal world, Drouin isn't on the top PP unit but he was. If he gets bumped, that is going to hurt those number. On MacK, 22 of Drouin's 35 5v5 points came withe Mack. Drouin had ~1100 5v5 minutes. ~630 were with MacK. His p/60 rate with MacK was 2.09 without Mack they were 1.66. Don't get me wrong 1.66 is still not bad at all... but we move from a legit top 6 rate to a fringe middle 6 rate.

There is certainly a possibility for upside to Drouin with term, but I simply think there is a lot of risk/reward to it. The reward is you potentially get a top 6 forward for around ~4m for a while. The risk is you end up with a guy you have to staple to MacK to get value out of, and if you don't there's a decent chance he's a $4m PP specialist who is on the books for 6 years.

As always, articulated it far better than I could. I've said it before, but I'm awfully wary of re-signing Drouin barring some sort of sweetheart, team-friendly, 'thanks for saving my career' type of deal.

 

[sethro109]

Well shit. We're set for 3 years..... Then f***.

 

[Chiarelli]

Well shit. We're set for 3 years..... Then f***.

worst part is we're going into year 3

 

[Vaslof]

Here's the problems I see with Drouin. He's 29 and typically, those players are in a downturn or going to be in a downturn soon. There's a strong chance that this was the best season he will ever have in the NHL. He's pretty injury prone. This year was clearly an exception, but this was his first full season since 18-19 (yeah I know there are PAP issues in there too). Odds are low he will be this healthy again. He was on a pure prove it deal last season. His NHL career depended on playing well last season. That is the most motivation he's likely to have going forward in his career. Say he gets a 6 year deal, that hunger could decrease. Drouin was also highly dependent on two things for points... MacK and the PP. On the PP 19 of his points were there. Which in an ideal world, Drouin isn't on the top PP unit but he was. If he gets bumped, that is going to hurt those number. On MacK, 22 of Drouin's 35 5v5 points came withe Mack. Drouin had ~1100 5v5 minutes. ~630 were with MacK. His p/60 rate with MacK was 2.09 without Mack they were 1.66. Don't get me wrong 1.66 is still not bad at all... but we move from a legit top 6 rate to a fringe middle 6 rate.

There is certainly a possibility for upside to Drouin with term, but I simply think there is a lot of risk/reward to it. The reward is you potentially get a top 6 forward for around ~4m for a while. The risk is you end up with a guy you have to staple to MacK to get value out of, and if you don't there's a decent chance he's a $4m PP specialist who is on the books for 6 years.

I pretty much agree, but at the same time, are there better options in UFA?

 

[Gumballhead]

I need a refresher - are each seasons salaries counted using the AAV? Like, if Mitts deal is cheaper this upcoming year and then goes up in the next two, does it not even matter for yearly cap numbers?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I pretty much agree, but at the same time, are there better options in UFA?

Maybe not, but there's probably better trade options.

That's the thing with UFAs, like 90% of the time you end up overpaying. In the Avs situation, we cannot afford to overpay.

They really should be looking at the trade market IMO. Dangle that 1st round pick and you could get a decent player. Dangle the 1st++ and you could get a really good player, and maybe even at a solid cap hit.


On Drouin, I don't even think we should be signing him for $4M. $3-3.5M is the range they should be in. I'd point to what Rodigues got in Florida as the comparable for the Avs. Yeah Drouin was better for us than Rodrigues was, but Rodrigues also had a better 2-3 year stretch overall then what Drouin has.


If he's looking at $4M for 4+ years... I'd walk away. If the Avs feel like they have $4M to spend, go target someone in a trade.

 

[hockeyfish]

I need a refresher - are each seasons salaries counted using the AAV? Like, if Mitts deal is cheaper this upcoming year and then goes up in the next two, does it not even matter for yearly cap numbers?

AAV stands for average annual value. it's all averaged out.

 

[henchman21]

I pretty much agree, but at the same time, are there better options in UFA?

That's the crux of it. I simply think Drouin is a risk/reward contract. There is a good chance that he provides excess value on any contract he signs for a few years. I also think there is a good chance he could provide negative value very quickly (even year 1). With him, you're simply taking a calculated risk. Personally, the best way to limit that risk is to limit his term. As an example, I'd easily pay Mitts $1m more and get 3 years added on vs signing Drouin for 6 years and get $1m knocked off in the deal.

 

[Gumballhead]

AAV stands for average annual value. it's all averaged out.

Right; I know the acronym, but does that mean no matter what the individual years salaries are, for the cap hit it will count as the average of all years?

 

[hockeyfish]

Right; I know the acronym, but does that mean no matter what the individual years salaries are, for the cap hit it will count as the average of all years?

Yes, AAV is all that matters for calculating cap hit.

 

[Balthazar]

Drouin's play last year away from the puck, backchecking and winning board battles had nothing to do with Mack though. The risk isn't that high, especially in the 4M range.

 

[henchman21]

Right; I know the acronym, but does that mean no matter what the individual years salaries are, for the cap hit it will count as the average of all years?

Yeah the cap hit averages out. There are rules around the salaries that really don't have an impact beyond us nerds.