Confirmed with Link: Mittelstadt re-signed (3 years, $5.75M AAV)

[Gumballhead]

Yes, AAV is all that matters for calculating cap hit.

That's interesting. So really with this CBA wrinkle, the annual salary only means something if the player wants to buy more stuff one year.

 

[henchman21]

Drouin's play last year away from the puck, backchecking and winning board battles had nothing to do with Mack though. The risk isn't that high, especially in the 4M range.

If Drouin's play regresses away from the puck and he's more of a 35 point guy... then he provides negative value. That is not outside the realm of possibility here. Doesn't even get into the injury issues.

 

[Avs91]

That's interesting. So really with this CBA wrinkle, the annual salary only means something if the player wants to buy more stuff one year.

That and when it comes to trades and stuff, how much actual salary is owed to the player by owners. But cap hit still impacts the team’s salary structure

 

[Pacman33]

Some injury risk with drouin but honestly dont see his effort level dropping much. Mack seems to really push him and dont think that stops at any point

 

[LOFIN]

That's interesting. So really with this CBA wrinkle, the annual salary only means something if the player wants to buy more stuff one year.

The way the contract is constructed, also has an effect on when the money is paid out (signing bonuses vs salary), how buyout-proof the contract is, and what the qualifying offer is.

Players in general prefer signing bonuses (lock-out proof, easier to handle taxes) and as frontloaded as possible (inflation is a thing), but maybe sprinkle a bit of that money to the backend to make it an uncomfortable deal to buyout/trade.

 

[Balthazar]

If Drouin's play regresses away from the puck and he's more of a 35 point guy... then he provides negative value. That is not outside the realm of possibility here. Doesn't even get into the injury issues.

It could but I don't see why it would happen. He's going to keep his passing abilities, his skating isn't going away in the next few years...so yea. I don't see it as a high risk contract.

At ~4M he has a better chance to outplay his contract than to be a bad contract.

 

[hockeyfish]

That's interesting. So really with this CBA wrinkle, the annual salary only means something if the player wants to buy more stuff one year.

There are other factors. The biggest is that structure to the contract matters for buyouts. Also, contracts with lower salary vs caphit are more attreactive to budget teams.

 

[Freudian]

The cap will be $150M in three years time. We can re-sign him.

 

[Gumballhead]

OK, thanks fellas. I was pretty sure that was the answer but I don't think we've ever been capf***ed like this so I hadn't really thought too hard about it.

 

[henchman21]

It could but I don't see why it would happen. He's going to keep his passing abilities, his skating isn't going away in the next few years...so yea. I don't see it as a high risk contract.

At ~4M he has a better chance to outplay his contract than to be a bad contract.

He's 29, the physical regression is simply a matter of time. The skating hasn't been the primary issue, the effort has. That effort only elevating in a save my career contract season should be enough of a worry. Let alone what he showed previously in his career.

That's the calculus of it all and everyone probably has different variations of that. IMO he's just about as likely to be a 60 point top 6 winger as he a 4th line power play specialist that is bought out in 3 years (if he's signed to say 5-6 years). I understand there can be reward, but there is a significant amount of risk too.

Now if you're talking 2-3 years (which Drouin shouldn't sign), that risk diminishes greatly. Because worst case you let him go in two or are buying out without a ton of long-term impact.

 

[LOFIN]

OK, thanks fellas. I was pretty sure that was the answer but I don't think we've ever been capf***ed like this so I hadn't really thought too hard about it.

In general, the AAV is all that matters. It really doesn't matter to the fans if the player is paid in signing bonuses vs salary, if the contract is frontloaded or backloaded, etc.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

I’m not a big fan of this contract.

AAV and term fits with our window, but would’ve liked an extra year or two on the deal.

Oh well, at least one of the biggest moves for our offseason is done and we can move forward. One week to sign Drouin before Walsh is putting better offers in front of him.

 

[RockLobster]

I’m not a big fan of this contract.

AAV and term fits with our window, but would’ve liked an extra year or two on the deal.

Oh well, at least one of the biggest moves for our offseason is done and we can move forward. One week to sign Drouin before Walsh is putting better offers in front of him.

Oh I know you know Walsh has already informed him of some of the better offers that will be "officially" in front of him starting on 7/1....

 

[Balthazar]

The more I think about this contract the worse it gets, the Avs have painted themselves in the corner.

Even if you're confident that Ritchie will take over the 2C job in 3 years you can always trade Mitts if need be. Or move him to 3C.

Mitts camp must have asked for 7M X 7 or something like that.

 

[The Abusement Park]

If Ross Colton is "paid fairly" at 4 million, Casey Mittelstadt is a fken steal at 5.75.

UFA years vs RFA years.

And with this contract we no real benefit in term or AAV. It’s not a bad contract but it’s also not a good one.

 

[LOFIN]

Mitts camp must have asked for 7M X 7 or something like that.

Which is not totally out of the question, considering how much the cap is going up and that contract would take him through his prime years.

I'm kind of the oposite, the more I think about it, the more OK I'm with it. Would I have liked it to be even 500k less? Yeah, because we are going to be so tight against the cap that this matters. But he is signed for the remainder of this "proper" window. In 3 years we might be looking at a complete re-tool anyway.

 

[henchman21]

UFA years vs RFA years.

When you want to make hyperbolic statements, this context doesn't matter.

 

[Balthazar]

Which is not totally out of the question, considering how much the cap is going up and that contract would take him through his prime years.

I'm kind of the oposite, the more I think about it, the more OK I'm with it. Would I have liked it to be even 500k less? Yeah, because we are going to be so tight against the cap that this matters. But he is signed for the remainder of this "proper" window. In 3 years we might be looking at a complete re-tool anyway.

What kind of re-tool? You guys make me laugh with the window thing, the Avs aren't going full Sharks/Hawks in 3 years.

Rantanen will be re-upped at 12M+ X 8 soon, Makar will get 15M X 8 in a couple of years. The team isn't giving up anytime soon.

 

[LOFIN]

What kind of re-tool? You guys make me laugh with the window thing, the Avs aren't going full Sharks/Hawks rebuild in 3 years.

Rantanen will be re-upped at 12M+ X 8 soon, Makar will get 15M X 8 in a couple of years. The team isn't giving up anytime soon.

Re-tool is a re-tool, and a re-build is a re-build. A re-tool for me might be taking a step back, but for like 1-2 year max when you try to sort out bad contracts and whatnot.

This team is not going into a rebuild anytime soon with MacKinnon being signed for the next 7 years, and Rantanen for next 9 in all likelihood. But if Makar decides to bolt, some kind of reshuffling will happen no doubt.

 

[henchman21]

What kind of re-tool? You guys make me laugh with the window thing, the Avs aren't going full Sharks/Hawks rebuild in 3 years.

Rantanen will be re-upped at 12M+ X 8 soon, Makar will get 15M X 8 in a couple of years. The team isn't giving up anytime soon.

Re-tools take different paths. Could easily see a Penguins or Kings path taken here, and odds are the results would be similar.

$40m tied up between Rants, Makar, and MacK where 2/3 will be >30 immediately isn't exactly a pedigree for contending. They won't be outright horrible, but they'll be the new Penguins. Playoffs most of the time and the stars of the team selling tickets.

 

[MacKaRant]

Here's the problems I see with Drouin. He's 29 and typically, those players are in a downturn or going to be in a downturn soon. There's a strong chance that this was the best season he will ever have in the NHL. He's pretty injury prone. This year was clearly an exception, but this was his first full season since 18-19 (yeah I know there are PAP issues in there too). Odds are low he will be this healthy again. He was on a pure prove it deal last season. His NHL career depended on playing well last season. That is the most motivation he's likely to have going forward in his career. Say he gets a 6 year deal, that hunger could decrease. Drouin was also highly dependent on two things for points... MacK and the PP. On the PP 19 of his points were there. Which in an ideal world, Drouin isn't on the top PP unit but he was. If he gets bumped, that is going to hurt those number. On MacK, 22 of Drouin's 35 5v5 points came withe Mack. Drouin had ~1100 5v5 minutes. ~630 were with MacK. His p/60 rate with MacK was 2.09 without Mack they were 1.66. Don't get me wrong 1.66 is still not bad at all... but we move from a legit top 6 rate to a fringe middle 6 rate.

There is certainly a possibility for upside to Drouin with term, but I simply think there is a lot of risk/reward to it. The reward is you potentially get a top 6 forward for around ~4m for a while. The risk is you end up with a guy you have to staple to MacK to get value out of, and if you don't there's a decent chance he's a $4m PP specialist who is on the books for 6 years.

I think we missed Drouin in the first half of the Dallas series. Not everyone can play with top players and make them better.

I also wonder if having Drouin around also helped MacK to focus and chill out a bit, which led to his career year.

Not to say that either of these points are relevant for giving Drouin a long, long contract. But if the window is only a couple more years anyways, why not plan to give him a long contract with LTIR planned for the last couple years?

 

[Balthazar]

Re-tool is a re-tool, and a re-build is a re-build. A re-tool for me might be taking a step back, but for like 1-2 year max when you try to sort out bad contracts and whatnot.

This team is not going into a rebuild anytime soon with MacKinnon being signed for the next 7 years, and Rantanen for next 9 in all likelihood. But if Makar decides to bolt, some kind of reshuffling will happen no doubt.

Makar isn't going anywhere.

The guy to move on from is Rantanen and the time to do it is this week.

Since it doesn't look like it's going to happen (the Mitts contract is pretty much a proof of this) then Mack, Rants and Makar are here for a long, long time and these guys will want to win every year.

 

[henchman21]

I think we missed Drouin in the first half of the Dallas series. Not everyone can play with top players and make them better.

I also wonder if having Drouin around also helped MacK to focus and chill out a bit, which led to his career year.

Not to say that either of these points are relevant for giving Drouin a long, long contract. But if the window is only a couple more years anyways, why not plan to give him a long contract with LTIR planned for the last couple years?

I'm not saying he wasn't missed or that he isn't good... just that giving Drouin term exponentially increases the risk associated with the contract. At a $4m x 2 contract, he's an absolute no brainer of a signing. Worst case happens, you can pawn off that deal. $4m x 7, there is a strong chance that contract blows up in your face at some point and if it happens after 2 seasons... you have a lead weight around your neck. There's a balance somewhere here.

 

[avsfan2189]

this also gives us an out if he's not been good during this tenure (unlikely though). If he's a bust here then at least it wont be one of those 5+ year deals that are painful to endure (e.g. huberdeau).

a lot can change in 3 years we may have other options to consider instead. Let's just focus on winning next year and go from there.

our contending window is closing so it's good to at least get the 2C situation solved for these few years like we did when we acquired kadri.

 

[AslanRH]

Rantanen will be re-upped at 12M+ X 8 soon,

I'm really worried about the risk/reward of this contract. We've already seen the signs of decline this year in effort level and commitment to a well rounded game. As he gets older the continuing decline is only a matter of time. Sure, he may find a way to maintain some production early in the contract, but it won't be long before it could prove to be quite an anchor of a contract.