Confirmed with Link: Mittelstadt re-signed (3 years, $5.75M AAV)

[niwotsblessing]

Trade Rantanen. Now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Chiarelli]

Really don't need Drouin. Can get a better top 6 winger at the deadline for cheap.

 

[UncleRisto]

Fine. Whatever, who cares.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Really don't need Drouin. Can get a better top 6 winger at the deadline for cheap.

I agree.

The issue with this thought is that if you give Bednar fewer options throughout the season, he’s gonna burn everyone into the ground before the deadline even matters.

The Avs need to give Bednar a full roster of quality players almost immediately. It’s the only way to protect him from himself. That is, unless Bednar abandons his « win at all costs » mentality.

 

[henchman21]

I agree.

The issue with this thought is that if you give Bednar fewer options throughout the season, he’s gonna burn everyone into the ground before the deadline even matters.

The Avs need to give Bednar a full roster of quality players almost immediately. It’s the only way to protect him from himself. That is, unless Bednar abandons his « win at all costs » mentality.

The cap prevents the Avs from giving Bednar that roster.

 

[MacKaRant]

I'm not saying he wasn't missed or that he isn't good... just that giving Drouin term exponentially increases the risk associated with the contract. At a $4m x 2 contract, he's an absolute no brainer of a signing. Worst case happens, you can pawn off that deal. $4m x 7, there is a strong chance that contract blows up in your face at some point and if it happens after 2 seasons... you have a lead weight around your neck. There's a balance somewhere here.

I assume the hypothetical 2-year deal would be more AAV than the hypothetical 7-year. Between 4M x 2 years and 3M x 6 years, which would you prefer?

 

[henchman21]

I assume the hypothetical 2-year deal would be more AAV than the hypothetical 7-year. Between 4M x 2 years and 3M x 6 years, which would you prefer?

4m by a mile

 

[PAZ]

I'm confused how people think it's a bad deal? It's not a steal... but it's fairly average.

Mitts is a 25 yr old center and has had two 60 pt seasons while having a solid two-way game. His floor is a #2C center at this point of his career. He's arbitration eligible and has zero reason to give the Avs any discount, there is only so much leverage CMac has here.

 

[LOFIN]

I'm confused how people think it's a bad deal? It's not a steal... but it's fairly average.

Mitts is a 25 yr old center and has had two 60 pt seasons while having a solid two-way game. His floor is a #2C center at this point of his career. He's arbitration eligible and has zero reason to give the Avs any discount, there is only so much leverage CMac has here.

It's not a "bad deal". It's also not a "great deal". Fair market value. The issue is we could've really used a win here. That said, glad it's out of the way.

 

[Balthazar]

I'm confused how people think it's a bad deal? It's not a steal... but it's fairly average.

No it's really bad. We either lose him in 3 years or have to re-up him at full UFA value and if he's any good he's going to want max term at age 29 which is SHIT.

I highly doubt we have another Byram to trade for a new 2C in 3 years. Ritchie better be good because the Avs have painted themselves in the corner big time with that shitty contract.

 

[LOFIN]

No it's really bad. We either lose him in 3 years or have to re-up him at full UFA value and if he's any good he's going to want max term at age 29 which is SHIT.

I highly doubt we have another Byram to trade for a new 2C in 3 years. Ritchie better be good because the Avs have painted themselves in the corner big time with that shitty contract.

So what type of deal would you suggest? 2x4.75 to walk him straight to UFA? Long term deal where the AAV is close to 8mil, which we can't afford?

We are f***ed, we know. But not like there were too many options here.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I'm confused how people think it's a bad deal? It's not a steal... but it's fairly average.

Mitts is a 25 yr old center and has had two 60 pt seasons while having a solid two-way game. His floor is a #2C center at this point of his career. He's arbitration eligible and has zero reason to give the Avs any discount, there is only so much leverage CMac has here.

Yeah, it's not great but not bad either.

The term is frankly fantastic. Where we've had to pay guys well into there 30s lately on contracts we know are going to age terribly. We've managed to avoid that here with Mittelstadt at least for now. They have the option of straight up walking away in 3 years from now, instead of having a guy make $7M well into his 30s again. Not to mention the fact bybgoing 3 years, we're at a lower cap hit right now when we need every dime we can find.

But it does feel like it's probably $500k higher than it should be.


It's a fine deal. Just not the big win we kind of need. Although the numbers guys seem to think we did quite well. Most had a Mits deal pegged at $6.5-7M so this could provide some of that excess value we need right now.


Especially if Mitts can find another level here with us next year. A 65-70 point C for under $6M would look fantastic.

 

[LOFIN]

It's a fine deal. Just not the big win we kind of need. Although the numbers guys seem to think we did quite well. Most had a Mits deal pegged at $6.5-7M so this could provide some of that excess value we need right now.

Evolving Hockey got it at 3x5.8, so they know their stuff I guess lol

 

[Pacman33]

Evolving Hockey got it at 3x5.8, so they know their stuff I guess lol

If anyone is curious, their most likely projection for drouin is 4 years 4.78 per

 

[Balthazar]

Evolving Hockey got it at 3x5.8, so they know their stuff I guess lol

look at this:

 

[BobRossColton]

Might be a bit early for this thought and isn't really our mo, he could also be a one year rental for a team two offseasons from now...

 

[Chiarelli]

If anyone is curious, their most likely projection for drouin is 4 years 4.78 per

no thanks

 

[LOFIN]

look at this

I'm not sure how that model takes into consideration the cap going up, neither does it take into consideration that his value is likely going up a lot like it usually does with players playing for us. I guess it does something but would like to know the math behind their formula lol.

But sure, if I had to make another move to accommodate Mittestadt at 5 years x 6mil, I'm doing it. Obviously. I just don't think that type of money was ever on the table for that term. They would've wanted much more, because the cap is going up and he's going to produce numbers playing with Makar, Rantanen and whatever.

 

[Balthazar]

I'm not sure how that model takes into consideration the cap going up, neither does it take into consideration that his value is likely going up a lot like it usually does with players playing for us.

But sure, if I had to make another move to accommodate Mittestadt at 5 years x 6mil, I'm doing it. Obviously. I just don't think that type of money was ever on the table for that term. They would've wanted much more, because the cap is going up and he's going to produce numbers playing with Makar, Rantanen and whatever.

According to that model, which was spot on:

1 year = good
4 years = good
5 years = great <-----
7 years = good

2 years = bad
3 years = bad
6 years = bad
8 years = bad

We picked one in the wrong column

 

[The Merchant]

Reading this thread then going over to the mainboard thread gave we whiplash

 

[PAZ]

No it's really bad. We either lose him in 3 years or have to re-up him at full UFA value and if he's any good he's going to want max term at age 29 which is SHIT.

I highly doubt we have another Byram to trade for a new 2C in 3 years. Ritchie better be good because the Avs have painted themselves in the corner big time with that shitty contract.

Again, not quite sure what you think the options are if Mitts didn't want to sign a long-term deal. If I was Mitts/his agent there are three options:

1. Work out a reasonable 2-3 yr deal that takes him to UFA
2. Hold out for arbitration which would get you a 1 yr x $4.5-5 mil deal and expect to have another 60 pt season, and takes him 1 year away to UFA.
3. Demand $6.5-7 mil on a long-term contract.

Why would he consider a 4-5 year contract with the cap going up with the #2C secured on a contender?

 

[MacKaRant]

Again, not quite sure what you think the options are if Mitts didn't want to sign a long-term deal. If I was Mitts/his agent there are three options:

1. Work out a reasonable 2-3 yr deal that takes him to UFA
2. Hold out for arbitration which would get you a 1 yr x $4.5-5 mil deal and expect to have another 60 pt season, and takes him 1 year away to UFA.
3. Demand $6.5-7 mil on a long-term contract.

Why would he consider a 4-5 year contract with the cap going up with the #2C secured on a contender?

It's been long standing team policy to only give short- or medium-term contracts to middle six forwards, non-top-pair defensemen, and goalies*

* - Unless your first name is Miles

 

[Alex Jones]

2027 offeason going be very interesting, ton of guys going UFA.

 

[Avs91]

As much as 5x6mil is so much better for the Avs than 3x5.75... there's no way Casey's camp is taking the former over the latter Not to mention, he has to set himself up for another contract, too.

 

[Balthazar]

It's been long standing team policy to only give short- or medium-term contracts to middle six forwards, non-top-pair defensemen, and goalies*

* - Unless your first name is Miles

It's also a team policy to pencil at our future 2C a kid that never played in the NHL (Jost, Newhook and now Ritchie).