Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[Leaf Fans]

So if you want to believe Kyper who Bourne says is connected to the Marner family, the Leafs offered Cowan, Minten and two firsts for Rantanen and Matthews money to Rantanen. The Canes fearing meeting Ranta and the Leafs in the playoffs, decided to send him to Dallas. Tells you who they think is the better player. Of course in this case the Marner PR crew will twist themselves into a pretzel and tell you Kyper is full of shit.

Just don't believe Kypreos. I don't know the guy, but he rubs me the wrong way.

 

[ToneDog]

Just don't believe Kypreos. I don't know the guy, but he rubs me the wrong way.

He does have his inside contacts but you could be right. He seems to have backed off pumping Marner's tires lately. Yesterday, he claimed Leafs were all-in on Rantanen which does not do Marner any favours.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Amazing the NHL has not closed the loop on this advantage for the tax free states.

If I am Toronto, this is a key CBA item for me and you need to throw around your financial weight in this discussion.

I doubt Montreal or NYR (the 2nd and 3rd highest grossing teams) will push back either so if your 3 big money teams challenge you on this...

 

[Legion34]

He does have his inside contacts but you could be right. He seems to have backed off pumping Marner's tires lately. Yesterday, he claimed Leafs were all-in on Rantanen which does not do Marner any favours.

Unless it’s PR for why Marner is leaving?

“I wanted to stay, but they didn’t want me”

 

[Nineteen67]

Amazing the NHL has not closed the loop on this advantage for the tax free states.

There are no tax free states.

 

[thewave]

If I am Toronto, this is a key CBA item for me and you need to throw around your financial weight in this discussion.

I doubt Montreal or NYR (the 2nd and 3rd highest grossing teams) will push back either so if your 3 big money teams challenge you on this...

Most importantly it's a legit problem

 

[Legion34]

According to Kyper, Leafs offered Rantanen 105-110 million dollars on an 8 year deal (first 10 minutes).

Real Kyper and Bourne

Nick Kypreos and Justin Bourne talk all things Maple Leafs and NHL! Airing live on Sportsnet 590 The FAN weekdays from 4-6 PM ET.

www.sportsnet.ca

That isn’t possible. They couldn’t have offered that until they had permission to talk and he was getting traded.

He is saying that he think they would have offered him that.

If he is working with the Marner camp he could be saying “see they offered this for mikko, gotta pay Mitch”

If that were true. It just proves that the taxes are a massive advantage. They turned down an extra 10-15 million?

Would you sign for 96 instead of 110?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Or is it just the one contract, signed almost 6 years ago, that tells us what the 'actual hockey world' thinks and how they currently value these two players?

Rantanen was also dumped by his team. You're free to wait until Marner gets the bigger contract once again, if you need that external validation. It's interesting that you directed this question at me, instead of the individual that first made the claim about what the hockey world thinks, while you refuse to answer questions yourself.

You made the statement that the actual hockey world thinks…

The person I replied to did.

There are plenty of examples of “hockey world” people in the media saying that rantanen is worth more than Marner (CJ last night).

In that very same segment, a media personality made the exact opposite argument that Marner was more valuable. Which actually perfectly captures how meaningless it is. Media personalities aren't the hockey world.

Just like you have no evidence that primary assists are equally valued as goals in contracts

There is plenty of evidence that primary assists are equally valuable as goals, and contract history supports it. You have no evidence that goals are worth more than primary assists though.

 

[ToneDog]

That isn’t possible. They couldn’t have offered that until they had permission to talk and he was getting traded.

He is saying that he think they would have offered him that.

If he is working with the Marner camp he could be saying “see they offered this for mikko, gotta pay Mitch”

If that were true. It just proves that the taxes are a massive advantage. They turned down an extra 10-15 million?

Would you sign for 96 instead of 110?

Yeah he said "he believes the Leafs could offer" which supports your theory.

 

[AlienWorkShop]

twist themselves into a pretzel and tell you Kyper is full of shit.

I've seen twistier pretzels in my day.

 

[Legion34]

Rantanen was also dumped by his team. You're free to wait until Marner gets the bigger contract once again, if you need that external validation. It's interesting that you directed this question at me, instead of the individual that first made the claim about what the hockey world thinks, while you refuse to answer questions yourself.

The person I replied to did.

In that very same segment, a media personality made the exact opposite argument that Marner was more valuable. Which actually perfectly captures how meaningless it is. Media personalities aren't the hockey world.

There is plenty of evidence that primary assists are equally valuable as goals, and contract history supports it. You have no evidence that goals are worth more than primary assists though.

Marner will probably get more if he signs here due to taxes. He is less valuable in terms of contract due to less goals/raw point totals. But the value is close enough that it probably doesn’t outweigh the massive no state tax advantages.

No one said Marner should be getting paid more than rantanen based on performance. They Brought up Marner as a pk player. CJ on his own podcast said Marner by value should slot in as lower aav than rantanen in contract evaluation.

There is zero evidence that primary assist count the same amount as goals in contracts.

Matthews got paid as a 60 goal scorer. Not a 100 pt player. Thats why he deserves more than. Marner and got paid more than Marner
If primary assists count the same as goals

Why did dubas over pay Matthews?
Matthews got more money on less term than Marner despite lower points/primary assists, pk time

So which did he overpay? Has to be one of them.

 

[francis246]

I mean the guy has 50 pts in 57 games, propped up by that Tampa series, yet some guys post stats trying to pretend he is some playoff hero

Saying his stats are propped up by one series is dumb. It’s as bad of an argument as saying McDavid and Drai feasts on PP that’s why their playoff points are so high.

It doesn’t matter, he got the points in that series and you can’t just arbitrarily decide that the points in those series are worth less. That’s classic narrative based arguing. And that’s my problem with a lot of you in here. You shift goal posts and don’t apply that to other players around the league or even on the leafs. Matthews also had a ton of points and goals against Tampa, would you say his stats are propped as well by the Tampa series? No, so you can’t have that standard for Marner and not for JT, Nylander and Tavares.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Saying his stats are propped up by one series is dumb. It’s as bad of an argument as saying McDavid and Drai feasts on PP that’s why their playoff points are so high.

It doesn’t matter, he got the points in that series and you can’t just arbitrarily decide that the points in those series are worth less. That’s classic narrative based arguing. And that’s my problem with a lot of you in here. You shift goal posts and don’t apply that to other players around the league or even on the leafs. Matthews also had a ton of points and goals against Tampa, would you say his stats are propped as well by the Tampa series? No, so you can’t have that standard for Marner and not for JT, Nylander and Tavares.

“This guy sucks and is the reason we never win in the playoffs. See if you remove the only playoff series we have won in two decades where he was great, it proves it”

 

[Dekes For Days]

People play the goalie in front of them. You can’t really argue the difference in goalscoring ability. If you want to argue for pk and defence then go ahead, but arguing about goalscoring in relation to Rantanen and Marner is futile.

People play the goaltending in front of them. And in the playoffs, that goaltending can vary quite drastically, causing production to skew. People then use this skewed production in small disparate samples to make false narratives about players.

I'm not arguing the goalscoring. Rantanen is a better goalscorer (though not by as much as people think). The issue is people thinking that it automatically make a him a better player, when he's not.

 

[francis246]

Yep, which I was I believe he's long gone. Someone will pay him Matthew's numbers, probably Dubas.

I’m in this camp, I think he’s gone. I’ve said it a few times but I think the 4nations was the nail in the coffin for his time in Toronto, especially if they lose. If they win, go deep like conference finals or Stanley cup, I can see him staying. But, I’m sure all the guys there were talking to him about what it would be like if he left Toronto. Every player has a price (whether that’s money or even opportunity like playing with another superstar) that can draw you away from comfortability, Marner will probably explore those options and I don’t think the leafs will be begging for him back if there is more failure. So it’s a win for both sides.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I’m in this camp, I think he’s gone. I’ve said it a few times but I think the 4nations was the nail in the coffin for his time in Toronto, especially if they lose. If they win, go deep like conference finals or Stanley cup, I can see him staying. But, I’m sure all the guys there were talking to him about what it would be like if he left Toronto. Every player has a price (whether that’s money or even opportunity like playing with another superstar) that can draw you away from comfortability, Marner will probably explore those options and I don’t think the leafs will be begging for him back if there is more failure. So it’s a win for both sides.

I have been firmly in the Leafs will resign him camp, but I’m starting to wonder if Marner might choose to walk if the Leafs flame out again.

The 4 nations gave him an opportunity to show he could step up in big moments and he proved that to himself and everyone else in the hockey world.

It would be pretty ironic, after all the hate he’s taken here, if he decides to go to another contender because he doesn’t think this core can get it done.

Course this could all be fixed like always if the Leafs could finally put it together this year. After the deadline this is the best Leafs team in a long time on paper.

 

[arso40]

Well first, I'm not sure where you got those numbers... If I did goals, it would be:

G/GP
Rantanen: 0.55
Nylander: 0.48
Marner: 0.36

G/GP (no EN)
Rantanen: 0.49
Nylander: 0.46
Marner: 0.34

5v5 G/60
Nylander: 1.10
Rantanen: 1.07
Marner: 0.77

PP G/60
Nylander: 2.52
Rantanen: 2.27
Marner: 1.98

Though of course, cherry picking only goals when you're comparing two goal scorers and PP shooters to a playmaker and PP QB is pretty intentionally misleading, and not representative of their respective quality or worth.

Body size isn't a factor here, Rantanen is not harder to play against, and while his playoff experiences have allowed him to put up more flashy numbers, there's more to playoff performance than that.

Of course not. I'm open to actual counter arguments. Media personalities putting together clickbait lists that they've provided zero justification for, that contradicts objective data, is not an actual argument though. It's an appeal to a fake authority.

Power play shooter Willy gets moved on to pp2 the year we went to second round and the other year first round exits Willy was playing down low marner was on the half wall nice try

 

[GoonieFace]

Saying his stats are propped up by one series is dumb. It’s as bad of an argument as saying McDavid and Drai feasts on PP that’s why their playoff points are so high.

It doesn’t matter, he got the points in that series and you can’t just arbitrarily decide that the points in those series are worth less. That’s classic narrative based arguing. And that’s my problem with a lot of you in here. You shift goal posts and don’t apply that to other players around the league or even on the leafs. Matthews also had a ton of points and goals against Tampa, would you say his stats are propped as well by the Tampa series? No, so you can’t have that standard for Marner and not for JT, Nylander and Tavares.

The point I’m trying to make is people take a 3 year sample, which happens to include the only playoff series he actually had a decent showing. Than try to pretend he is anywhere close to the playoff performer of a Rantanen.

Even strength pts/60 in playoffs

Rantanen - 2.726
Draisaitl - 2.952
Nylander - 2.435
Matthews - 2.051
Marner - 1.945

People say Draisatl and Rantanen are PP merchants, yet this is pretty telling. I’m sure people will than make up the many excuses, like they played weaker goalies, it was a full moon on those games.

There is no goalpost moving, Marner has been a disappointment in the postseason, so has Matthews, but not to the same extent. Willy has been more than fine, yet people try to play that down.

 

[William Johnson]

Rantanen was also dumped by his team. You're free to wait until Marner gets the bigger contract once again, if you need that external validation. It's interesting that you directed this question at me, instead of the individual that first made the claim about what the hockey world thinks, while you refuse to answer questions yourself.

These are your words, not someone else's, and not the previous poster's: 'Some media personalities might like Rantanen more, but the actual hockey world values Marner more, and recognises that he is the better player.'

So far, I've seen no real evidence from you to back up your claim of knowing what 'the actual hockey world' thinks about Marner's value relative to Rantanen, other than a rather vague reference to a now six year-old contract comparison. I'll have to assume at this point you don't have any, and your phrasing was just another example of the desire to try to use someone's words against them. Your words are your own, and I directed the question to you because I wanted to see if you could support your statement. I think I have my answer.

As for refusing to answer questions, my apologies. The only question I can see in our exchanges is this one: What evidence do you have that GMs are ignoring the valuable information that some here choose to? I have to admit to being slightly confused by the expression here, but I'll attempt a response to what I think you're asking: I don't have any direct evidence of what GMs think or don't think. I also don't know why a GM would ignore 'valuable information' and assume they don't. I don't know or care much about what 'some here' choose to think.

Most importantly, I don't make statements proclaiming that I know what the actual hockey world thinks.

 

[arso40]

I have been firmly in the Leafs will resign him camp, but I’m starting to wonder if Marner might choose to walk if the Leafs flame out again.

The 4 nations gave him an opportunity to show he could step up in big moments and he proved that to himself and everyone else in the hockey world.

It would be pretty ironic, after all the hate he’s taken here, if he decides to go to another contender because he doesn’t think this core can get it done.

Course this could all be fixed like always if the Leafs could finally put it together this year. After the deadline this is the best Leafs team in a long time on paper.

Step up ? The guy had two assists in the gold medal game and a 3 on 3 goal where he leaked out for a stretch pass he had more games where he disappeared then he showed up for like get real very good player but Hes a big part of why we haven’t got it done he can go wherever he likes

 

[arso40]

he was good vs Vegas

No he wasn’t he was good when the game was out of reach as usual

 

[BraveCanadian]

Step up ? The guy had two assists in the gold medal game and a 3 on 3 goal where he leaked out for a stretch pass he had more games where he disappeared then he showed up for like get real very good player but Hes a big part of why we haven’t got it done he can go wherever he likes

Yes, I agree if you take away his OT winner and elimination game points, Marner hardly did anything in the tourney.

gg

Good running theme you guys got going here. Bonus points for doing it again so soon after I called out the illogical nonsense so recently up thread.

 

[arso40]

Yes, I agree if you take away his OT winner and elimination game points, Marner hardly did anything in the tourney.

gg

Good running theme you guys got going here. Bonus points for doing it again so soon after I called out the illogical nonsense so recently up thread.

Did you watch the games at all? What did I say that was false ?

 

[Confucius]

So the truth comes out, it's not that you know what the actual offer is, you believe speculation (Mirtle even said "He believes" not "It is", words matter" from a guy who lives off clicks, gotcha ... I got some cheap swamp land in Florida available.

Let me try .... I spoke with Mitch this morning, Marner's ask was $9.5 million, who knew it was so easy to make up unsubstantiated shit and package it as the truth .... I'm shocked... do better, be better.

So you’ve been taken before? Not interested… lol

 

[Zybalto]

alot of good stuff here, although for the rates im not sure how you'd factor quality of competiton into it and how latter rounds wear and tear impact performances but nonetheless, still an eye opening stat, especially for the individual players.

I guess my question is why aren't the /60 stats translating into more points for our guys? For example marners Goals for/60 are higher than kucherov's, mackinnon's, and rantanen's but his ppg is much lower. Are we scoring a lot without them getting credit (G or A's) and if so why is it not the same for the other guys..are they more important to their team scoring? I understand players can make impacts offensively beyond the scoreboard, but at the superstar level i feel like a lot of the impact offensively WILL be on the scoreboard, especially for somewhat one way players in matthews and marner (sniper + playmaker).

Rantanen 38GP 49P (1.29) 21:32
Mackinnon 38GP 45P (1.18) 22:46
Makar 37GP 49P (1.32) 26:49

Barkov 55GP 45P (0.82) 21:59
Reinhart 55GP 33P (0.6) 21:21
Ekblad 52GP 19P (0.37) 23:19

Kucherov 34GP 40P (1.18) 20:45
Point 20GP 14P (0.7) 19:46
Hedman 33GP 29P (0.88) 24:41

Marner 25GP 25P (1.00) 22:59
Matthews 23GP 24P (1.04) 22:03
Rielly 25GP 21P (0.84) 23:52

from the stats marner doesn't play that much more/less than rantanen or kucherov and his GF/60 are around the same, so him sitting at 1.00 vs betweewn 1.18-1.29+ is a bit confusing to me.

what I am interpreting from these stats (could be wrong), is that florida's team doesn't rely on offence to win, because they both the goalsfor/60 and point production is low, but even moreso from their 3 forwards so when the team scores with them on (doesn't happen very often), they are getting points at a normal-ish rate considering how little they score with them on in general.

On the flip side Colorado depends a lot more on the 3 guys to play well and produce as both the goalsfor/60 and point production is high, so when the team scores with them on, they are the ones creating/finishing/setting up. Tampa falls in the middle with Toronto where their guys are scoring just as often as the other two, but the production isn't quite there, especially for toronto's case.

with their regular season performances and the way these stats are showing, M&M should settle closer to rantanen numbers but they aren't

on another note, the team stats are a bit astonishing, but I am guessing tavares and nylander are heavily carrying our goals from non top 3 leafs, all those guys you named + some others (Jarnkrok, Kerfott, etc....)are the definition of regular season players. They are perfect for getting you in.....and that's about it, they become utterly useless afterwards. And whilst in a long run yes our depth has choked hard, you'd think at some point the star power would put it together and go on a run based off of just them similar to the Oilers, not saying M&M need to be going McDrai levels, but the combination of JT+WN+MM+AM should've approach what those two are doing and they should've dragged their 3rd wheeler along for the ride, but that never happened.

But with Stolarz (and still Woll) in between the pipes we still have two legit playoff options, and a bit of a revamped dcore, i am hoping the bottom six should at least be a little better.

We will see how things go as the playoffs come around

As far as the points per game go, the big guys are right up there if the Leafs had a functioning powerplay in the playoffs. This is certainly on them and Marner deserves blame here too. You add a few goals there and all of a sudden the amigos have a 1.3 per game up with the other leaders. It was very odd to see the 20 IQ takes at the 4 nations claiming Marner needed more space to be a better player. His whole playoff resume is an example of him being far more effective in tight checking 5v5 battles than when things open up and the 5v5 numbers for the last half decade reflect that.

Quality of comp does make a difference and even there, Marner is out there being used as a matchup guy in every series against the Kucherovs and Pastas and has been almost always dominant (with the exception of the Florida series)....and on the Florida series, its actually the reason why it was such a short series as Marner not winning his battles like in every other series put a quick end to things as the goalies and depth were their usual mediocre selves. Even last year with the huge injury issues and our starter getting pulled, Marner was out there matched against Pasta in largely a stalemate while Boston hammered out stretched depth. Thank god Woll gave us the best playoff goaltending since Belfour or it was over early and eventually Pasta did end up finishing it which left a bad taste in many mouths against Marner and....

Morgan Rielly is the most interesting stats wise.

Ranking of playoff dmen over the last 3 playoffs:
Goals per game (min 20 games played, 61 dmen total):
1. Makar
2. Rielly
3. Bouchard
4. Montour
5. Shultz

Points per game:
1. Makar
2. Bouchard
3. Fox
4. Hedman
5. Rielly

5v5 goal differential:
1. Whitecloud
2. Hague
3. Byram
4. Rielly
5. Burns

Unlike the forwards who fall away from the top 5 for production, Rielly is has probably been a legit top 10 Dman in the entire NHL, bad PP and all. With so many on the forwards for production numbers, Rielly has those in spades and great 2 way numbers too. If playoff numbers mean something, Rielly has been one of the clutch guys no one should be talking about getting rid of.

I mean, just looking at the REL 5v5 numbers to reflect on how big a gap there has been with the play of guys like Rielly and Marner vs the rest:

Top 5v5 goal differential relative other teammates. How much better have you been relative the rest of your team when it comes to 5v5 play results?

Top 5 among players in the league over the last 3 years for 5v5 REL (min 350 minutes played, 125 players total):
1. Rielly
2. McDavid
3. Marner
4. Lindholm
5. Burns

These 5 players meant the most to their teams 5v5 over the last 3 years in the playoffs when it comes to 5v5 outcomes. Not fancy numbers that some would like to spin this off as. Outcomes.

....and guess who many around here want to get rid of? The numbers say it would be a disaster for the team. I'm down if the long term plan is to get McDavid of course but theres not many combinations out there that could replace what those guys bring...stats wise of course.

As far as Marner "settling" for what Rants took, Rantanen was put in a bit of a different spot and everyone here knows that tax advantages exist. 13-14 million is Marner "settling" for Rantanen numbers in Toronto....and thats what he's going to get if he goes to FA. Rantanen didnt have the protections Marner has in his contract and paid a price of control but still found a great landing spot despite the massive worries about him not looking great away from Mac. Marner is riding high with a possible nhl all star selection and huge 4 nations. Follow that up with a great playoffs and the skys the limit for his upcoming big contract.

Tavares has been the bad spot of the top 4 forwards and is the guy we should be putting the gears to for contract negotiations. He doesnt want to go anywhere I dont think and this playoffs is huge for him as its going to be the difference between the rumored numbers and a "take 4-5 million or go away" type situation.