I agree with your general sentiment and draft placement, but I'm not sure I agree with your framing of him as a defensively responsible forward.
Murnieks is an all-around player. He's very good at a lot of things, but the question is whether that's good enough to become a 2C at the NHL level.
The one thing that I do not particularly like is a lack of an increase in production during the course of the season. I know Murnieks is trying to finish 2 years of schooling in 24/25 and that he's 16 and it's his first season abroad, but I would really love to see some more multi-point games and more dominance.
He can still end up in the top 10 with a great showing next season or drop to the bottom of the 1st round if he fails to produce more.