Mitch Marner (post playoffs) discussion thread continued...

[Martin Skoula]

Trading Marner is the right move, I just don't think it's this offseason. Assuming the trade happens 5 minutes after his bonus is paid on some July 1, here's what other teams are looking at:

2021: 4 seasons at 6.2 average in real cash
2022: 3 seasons at 5.6 average in real cash
2023: 2 seasons at 4.4 average in real cash
2024: 1 season at 750k in real cash

2023 and 2024 he has a full NMC, not sure exactly which day in 2023 it kicks in but I'm assuming July 1st. He arguably has the highest value in 2024 as a full year rental at 750k, but obviously the NMC complicates that. Next offseason looks like the realistic best time to trade him, I'm sure a competitive small market team would love to have him at 5.6 if they don't care about cap hit. His signing bonuses become manageable at that point as well, "only" being 7.25 mil instead of the 15 and 14 he's stealing from us the last 2 years.

 

[Arzak]

This should be Non-thread , like his playoffs.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Mitch has learned over da years that he loses every board battle he has ever engaged in .. so why would a weak guy even try? .. da video clip above is one of many .. games of either strength or flat out speed he can't do well at .. so avoid each .. you can carry one of these types of players in playoffs if they score goals for you .. too many Miks etc and you are 1st round fodder like Laffs

What happened to big changes if the team failed?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Lol dude....very simply, the answers are below:

1) Lets discuss actual realistic scenarios to improve the team. Let's try to avoid trade scenarios that the GM has adamantly gone against and very simply said will NOT happen.

2) If he considered trading him right now, would he have very publicly say that he's NOT trading him? Not only Dubas, but Shanny and Keefe agreed that the core was to stay together their media engagements. Unless all 3 want to look like absolute fools, Marner will not be traded before next season. This is very clear to anyone that isn't living in their own NHL fantasy GM mode.

3) Fair enough. "Reality" may kick at "some point", but I can tell you this will not happen until next offseason at the VERY earliest. Smart managers dont change their mind overnight, especially after publicly stating their firm opinion to the biggest hockey market in the world the day before lol.

Please, let's think before we post so we can engage in a productive discussion that isn't NHL 21 or your fantasy league, or at least pay attention to the press conferences that were conducted yesterday. Mitch Marner will be a leaf for a MINIMUM of one more season.

Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.

... Lets discuss actual realistic scenarios to improve the team ... let's think before we post ... This is very clear to anyone that isn't living in their own NHL fantasy GM mode ... or at least pay attention ... anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional ...

Could you be any more arrogant and condescending? Buddy can you spare some ego?

 

[LeafSteel]

Hey Mitch, watch Sebastian Aho and tell us what you think.

learn from him, SnizzMitch.

 

[Peasy]

Hey Mitch, watch Sebastian Aho and tell us what you think.

learn from him, SnizzMitch.

Embarrassing he makes 2.5m less than Marner, and plays the more important position.

I really hope Marner figures out how to be an effective player in the playoffs because its clear as long as Dubas is here, this core 4 are staying together...

 

[JT AM da real deal]

What happened to big changes if the team failed?

I guess we will all have to wait til Larry's post exit interview mtgs with Shanny to see where things stand at board level .. we now know that Shanny/Dubie want to run same core back out there .. if Larry gives them another year then I will take a season sabbatical from my arena sponsorship .. and I will flip my subscription to ticket broker for an investment return .. should be good for you guys as more tickets will hit after market at 200-250 a pop .. I think you will see a few others do same as a few ex player/Hot Stove budds of mine .. and we will see if youngins have financial wherewithal / desire to fund our Leafs .. or is my generation da last of da cash cow .. lots of interesting tests coming up

 

[studebaker17]

Embarrassing he makes 2.5m less than Marner, and plays the more important position.

I really hope Marner figures out how to be an effective player in the playoffs because its clear as long as Dubas is here, this core 4 are staying together...

Embarrassing he makes 2.5m less than Marner, and plays the more important position.

I really hope Marner figures out how to be an effective player in the playoffs because its clear as long as Dubas is here, this core 4 are staying together...

In all fairness , Aho's agent should of been fired . Unless Aho really wanted out of Carolina and really didn't think they'd match , but again, the agent should of been fired.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

There's not a single player in the league that it is "ridiculous" to move. You do it if it will help your team win a Stanley Cup, full stop. There's a great case to be made that the Leafs are too top-heavy and could benefit from moving one of the big four. Given his salary and his recent playoff performances, Marner is the prime candidate. The perfect trade is right there for the taking - Seth Jones. This is far from ridiculous, Dubas.

I have heard the Seth Jones for Marner stuff quite a bit in the last few days. Why would we do that? I like Jones...but why would I trade Marner for him when he flat out said he wants to go to UFA status and make his own decision? If you can trade Marner for some assets...reduce your cap...and then go and sign Jones..that makes more sense to me.

 

[Superstar]

In all fairness , Aho's agent should of been fired . Unless Aho really wanted out of Carolina and really didn't think they'd match , but again, the agent should of been fired.

Maybe Aho is not greedy and thought that was plenty of money to last a lifetime, whether he gets it from Montreal or Carolina. The offersheet after all has to be signed by Aho.

 

[ToneDog]

In all fairness , Aho's agent should of been fired . Unless Aho really wanted out of Carolina and really didn't think they'd match , but again, the agent should of been fired.

Aho signed for market value. He was an RFA and accepted an offersheet. Canes matched. His agent did well. Aho's only hope for more money was to negotiate against Dubas who allowed Marner to use Matty as a comparable instead of Aho.

 

[Peasy]

Maybe Aho is not greedy and thought that was plenty of money to last a lifetime, whether he gets it from Montreal or Carolina. The offersheet after all has to be signed by Aho.

Exactly. Carolina was trying to hard ball him, Montreal offered a contract that he was happy with so he signed it to force Carolina's hand and to not drag out the situation.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Aho signed for market value. He was an RFA and accepted an offersheet. Canes matched. His agent did well. Aho's only hope for more money was to negotiate against Dubas who allowed Marner to use Matty as a comparable instead of Aho.

Aho is better .. more speed more strength .. better raw hockey skills for playoff hockey

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Exactly. The goal is for the Leafs to have the best team, not the team the Leafs already have to be the best. Our management is likely emotionally compromised and unwilling to part with "their" team for irrational reasons. They want to win their way with their guys, they don't want to win in general.

Exactly...Dubas wants to prove some convoluted point that the Playoffs are just extension of the regular season and the same style of play that wins in the regular season...also wins in the playoffs. He will not concede that the playoffs are played a different way or the refs call it differently and let more stuff happen than they usually do. That is a net drag on skill because it's penalized less than it should be. It seems that Dubas lives in some kind of poly anna type world where things are fair...well..he doesn't live there for realz and it's going to take a few more embarrassments for us to get with reality

 

[Stephen]

I’m not really a Marner fan. I think my criticisms of the player are pretty well known. But cooling down after a few days I think unless there’s a sweetheart deal you run back the Big 4 and hope this playoff meltdown pain will propel him forward like it did with a Nylander this time around.

No guarantees but maybe a dialed in Marner is something we want to take advantage of as opposed to letting him learn on the job here only to take off somewhere else. Of course he’s going to be under heavy scrutiny next season.

Only thing I would say is this guy could probably talk to a sports psychologist and hit the gym. I’m not being facetious or joking around. I think Nathan Mackinnon said he had to go see one earlier in his career when he was crippled with self doubt about turning into a bust. Also would love to see him work with Gary Roberts to get stronger and more explosive.

That’s about it.

 

[Superstar]

Aho is better .. more speed more strength .. better raw hockey skills for playoff hockey

Be careful...some folks will tell you Marner could play centre too...

 

[WTFMAN99]

I’m not really a Marner fan. I think my criticisms of the player are pretty well known. But cooling down after a few days I think unless there’s a sweetheart deal you run back the Big 4 and hope this playoff meltdown pain will propel him forward like it did with a Nylander this time around.

No guarantees but maybe a dialed in Marner is something we want to take advantage of as opposed to letting him learn on the job here only to take off somewhere else. Of course he’s going to be under heavy scrutiny next season.

Only thing I would say is this guy could probably talk to a sports psychologist and hit the gym. I’m not being facetious or joking around. I think Nathan Mackinnon said he had to go see one earlier in his career when he was crippled with self doubt about turning into a bust. Also would love to see him work with Gary Roberts to get stronger and more explosive.

That’s about it.

To add to this, work his explosiveness with his skating and core strength.

He's small but not a burner with speed and it was easy to mob the hell out of Matthews and dare Marner to beat Price with a shot cleanly. Have him go over tape of the play-offs and highlight how he needs to speed up decision making and go with simpler plays.

 

[studebaker17]

Maybe Aho is not greedy and thought that was plenty of money to last a lifetime, whether he gets it from Montreal or Carolina. The offersheet after all has to be signed by Aho.

Offersheet was signed pretty much on day 1 of rfa . Assuming an agent is doing his job he's letting the client know what he can probably expect in the market or what Carolina should be paying him . He set the bar to low. Nothing to do with Marner , he signed 1st out of a full crop of players in similar situations for below what anyone was thinking that would be .

 

[Stephen]

To add to this, work his explosiveness with his skating and core strength.

He's small but not a burner with speed and it was easy to mob the hell out of Matthews and dare Marner to beat Price with a shot cleanly. Have him go over tape of the play-offs and highlight how he needs to speed up decision making and go with simpler plays.

Be more explosive, play cleaner lines and be more urgent in scoring opportunities and have a better shot. And compete harder on 50-50 puck battles. Respect the talent level of the opposition. Stop being a muppet. PK less. Stay fresher.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I’m not really a Marner fan. I think my criticisms of the player are pretty well known. But cooling down after a few days I think unless there’s a sweetheart deal you run back the Big 4 and hope this playoff meltdown pain will propel him forward like it did with a Nylander this time around.

No guarantees but maybe a dialed in Marner is something we want to take advantage of as opposed to letting him learn on the job here only to take off somewhere else. Of course he’s going to be under heavy scrutiny next season.

Only thing I would say is this guy could probably talk to a sports psychologist and hit the gym. I’m not being facetious or joking around. I think Nathan Mackinnon said he had to go see one earlier in his career when he was crippled with self doubt about turning into a bust. Also would love to see him work with Gary Roberts to get stronger and more explosive.

That’s about it.

You just started praying again Stephen .. he is not innately built with core strength .. you are asking for a miracle .. he can jump around all day long and build more muscle yes .. but that does not make someone stronger just denser and slower .. if you want a miracle then get him to switch skater instructors to lengthen his stride .. it is more believable plan so he has more straight line speed

 

[Superstar]

Offersheet was signed pretty much on day 1 of rfa . Assuming an agent is doing his job he's letting the client know what he can probably expect in the market or what Carolina should be paying him . He set the bar to low. Nothing to do with Marner , he signed 1st out of a full crop of players in similar situations for below what anyone was thinking that would be .

Aho signed for fair market value...of course, a player and his agent could always get greedy, play some games, and try to squeeze for more money...but you have to ask yourself, how much is enough and at what cost?

I remember Marner's camp was using Darren Dredger as their mouthpiece during negotiations, tweeting things like "brisk offersheet action" regarding Marner, as another method to squeeze more dollar from the Leafs organization.

 

[Stephen]

You just started praying again Stephen .. he is not innately built with core strength .. you are asking for a miracle .. he can jump around all day long and build more muscle yes .. but that does not make someone stronger just denser and slower .. if you want a miracle then get him to switch skater instructors to lengthen his stride .. it is more believable plan so he has more straight line speed

Believe me, I’m not a fan of keeping him either but I’m also weary of making a very Leafy mistake. So within the framework of what the organization has outlined, let’s try to identify what specific things he needs to work on and see if he’s working on them. If it doesn’t work in Year 6, I think we might be looking at the end of an era anyway.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Be careful...some folks will tell you Marner could play centre too...

Marner is much better on his edges, is far more creative and far better passer and will get more regular season points .. but his skills ie speed (stride length) and strength (core) prevent him from succeeding in playoff hockey when game ramps up in speed and time and space is reduced .. Dubie signed a top 10 regular season player and did not understand what da skills deficiencies were from a playoff hockey perspective .. it is main reason why we need a guy who played in charge .. not a guy who played house league but has great spreadsheet analysis and a guy who can put together a great PP presentation .. but I can see why it would fool a guy like Shanny who has a history of being out there with decisions

 

[Superstar]

Exactly. Carolina was trying to hard ball him, Montreal offered a contract that he was happy with so he signed it to force Carolina's hand and to not drag out the situation.

You also have to wonder how narcissistic our players are in Matthews and Marner...$11.634? $10.893? How about a clean business-like number like $11.5 or $10.5, and then go out there and get the job done in the playoffs when it matters the most? It's like a declaration of self-importance before having achieved anything significant in the NHL.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Believe me, I’m not a fan of keeping him either but I’m also weary of making a very Leafy mistake. So within the framework of what the organization has outlined, let’s try to identify what specific things he needs to work on and see if he’s working on them. If it doesn’t work in Year 6, I think we might be looking at the end of an era anyway.

He will put up a lot of points next year too .. not top 5 because division will be much much harder in competition .. but expect him to be around 10 overall .. and team based on current roster will be lucky to make playoffs as a wildcard and it will be another 1st round loss .. then it will be almost impossible to trade him at all as everyone will have figured it out .. it will be a massive CAP hit even more than Kessel past few years