Mitch Marner (post playoffs) discussion thread continued...

[Stephen]

He will put up a lot of points next year too .. not top 5 because division will be much much harder in competition .. but expect him to be around 10 overall .. and team based on current roster will be lucky to make playoffs as a wildcard and it will be another 1st round loss .. then it will be almost impossible to trade him at all as everyone will have figured it out .. it will be a massive CAP hit even more than Kessel past few years

If he shows no growth and it’s the same status, we might be looking at a new management team then too. I definitely would have been more excited to hear management talk about exploring all options.

 

[Brobust]

He will put up a lot of points next year too .. not top 5 because division will be much much harder in competition .. but expect him to be around 10 overall .. and team based on current roster will be lucky to make playoffs as a wildcard and it will be another 1st round loss .. then it will be almost impossible to trade him at all as everyone will have figured it out .. it will be a massive CAP hit even more than Kessel past few years

One small positive that I've heard over the last few days, from reliable people like CJ and Dreger, is that Marner has incredible trade value and other GMs are not stupidly looking at 7 games as a decider for who Marner is.

I doubt that changes a year from now.

 

[Superstar]

He will put up a lot of points next year too .. not top 5 because division will be much much harder in competition .. but expect him to be around 10 overall .. and team based on current roster will be lucky to make playoffs as a wildcard and it will be another 1st round loss .. then it will be almost impossible to trade him at all as everyone will have figured it out .. it will be a massive CAP hit even more than Kessel past few years

I agree, there's definitely a huge risk in holding onto Marner, because if he sucks again next playoffs and the Leafs bail out in round one again, his value would be completely shot.

 

[Superstar]

One small positive that I've heard over the last few days, from reliable people like CJ and Dreger, is that Marner has incredible trade value and other GMs are not stupidly looking at 7 games as a decider for who Marner is.

I doubt that changes a year from now.

Marner will always have value because he could put up alot of points in the regular season, and there are other teams that are desperate to even get a sniff of the playoffs, so Marner could help them get into the playoffs. But if Marner sucks again next playoffs, his value will tank, because how many playoff games could he keep on sucking without losing value at that caphit?

 

[Trapper]

One small positive that I've heard over the last few days, from reliable people like CJ and Dreger, is that Marner has incredible trade value and other GMs are not stupidly looking at 7 games as a decider for who Marner is.

I doubt that changes a year from now.

I don’t think we are looking at 7 games either.

 

[Stephen]

Marner will always have value because he could put up alot of points in the regular season, and there are other teams that are desperate to even get a sniff of the playoffs, so Marner could help them get into the playoffs. But if Marner sucks again next playoffs, his value will tank, because how many playoff games could he keep on sucking without losing value at that caphit?

He’ll always have high value because a regular season top 5 scorer doesn’t grow on trees and other organizations need to sell tickets and have different roster strengths.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

To add to this, work his explosiveness with his skating and core strength.

He's small but not a burner with speed and it was easy to mob the hell out of Matthews and dare Marner to beat Price with a shot cleanly. Have him go over tape of the play-offs and highlight how he needs to speed up decision making and go with simpler plays.

One of the things that really cripples Marner is the way he wants his plays/passes/goals to be works of art. He had several chances to put it in the net against price but took that extra little bit to make it look a bit fancier and he muffed it. It happened A LOT in this series where there was a yawning cage right for the taking...and he flubbed it due to the extra 'style points' move he tried to make. Cut that out of his game and he would be way more effective. Problem is...the coach doesn't think there was any problem with the way they played...seriously...

 

[ShaneFalco]

Seems we're back in the entitlement days

 

[Superstar]

Seems we're back in the entitlement days

You can't even rip into them anymore when they play badly...gotta continue to coddle them and tell them how awesome they are.

 

[Brobust]

I don’t think we are looking at 7 games either.

3 weeks ago, he was an elite 2-way winger who plays all situations matchup minutes and dominates and today he's a bum.

How many games did they play in the last 3 weeks?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Marner will always have value because he could put up alot of points in the regular season, and there are other teams that are desperate to even get a sniff of the playoffs, so Marner could help them get into the playoffs. But if Marner sucks again next playoffs, his value will tank, because how many playoff games could he keep on sucking without losing value at that caphit?

Yes Mitch will always have trade value for sure for exact reason you mention .. da question is CAP hit that we have to take on to get a deal done .. for his kinda CAP hit teams will expect more than regular season performance .. you will all see next summer when this rinses and repeats

 

[Superstar]

3 weeks ago, he was an elite 2-way winger who plays all situations matchup minutes and dominates and today he's a bum.

How many games did they play in the last 3 weeks?

Is a regular season star and a playoff bum a recipe for a Cup run? After all, the end goal is the Cup. Yes, Marner is a playoff bum. We're taking into context of his playoff contribution for his cap hit.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Marner for one of the Tkachuk brothers. At least they will give their left nut for the team and play until they can't stand anymore.

Tkachuk-Matthews-Nylander

Trading Marner is the right move, I just don't think it's this offseason. Assuming the trade happens 5 minutes after his bonus is paid on some July 1, here's what other teams are looking at:

2021: 4 seasons at 6.2 average in real cash
2022: 3 seasons at 5.6 average in real cash
2023: 2 seasons at 4.4 average in real cash
2024: 1 season at 750k in real cash

2023 and 2024 he has a full NMC, not sure exactly which day in 2023 it kicks in but I'm assuming July 1st. He arguably has the highest value in 2024 as a full year rental at 750k, but obviously the NMC complicates that. Next offseason looks like the realistic best time to trade him, I'm sure a competitive small market team would love to have him at 5.6 if they don't care about cap hit. His signing bonuses become manageable at that point as well, "only" being 7.25 mil instead of the 15 and 14 he's stealing from us the last 2 years.

Marner's signing bonuses are very large: upcoming season $14.3 m, following season $9.6 m, the $7.25 m the remaining years.

Imho, this is prohibitive for many teams, and particularly for small market teams. I doubt if there's much of trade market amongst the small market (financially speaking) teams. The market would be limited imho to a small number of teams with deeper pockets and balance sheets.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Marner's signing bonuses are very large: upcoming season $14.3 m, following season $9.6 m, the $7.25 m the remaining years.

Imho, this is prohibitive for many teams, and particularly for small market teams. I doubt if there's much of trade market amongst the small market (financially speaking) teams. The market would be limited imho to a small number of teams with deeper pockets and balance sheets.

The 14 mil was paid out last off-season, he's getting 9.6 this off-season. 7.25 + 750k salary is manageable for small market teams, Carolina was ready to pay Semin 8 mil and even pay him not to play. I'm sure Marner at 750k year 1 (we pay the 9.6 signing bonus and trade him right after) and 8 mil in year 2 and 3 would have someone like them licking their chops.

 

[egd27]

Seems we're back in the entitlement days

You can't even rip into them anymore when they play badly...gotta continue to coddle them and tell them how awesome they are.

Marner, in his season ending press conference, talked about how tough it was not being able to hang out with his friends during the pandemic.

Think about that for a moment. Think about the doctors, nurses, and EMS workers. Think about the people that haven't worked in a year. Think about people who spent their lives building a business only to have it destroyed. And lastly think about the people who lost their lives, or lost loved ones.

He actually said not being able to hang out with friends was really tough, while collecting millions of dollars.

IMO he is a thoughtless, spoiled, little boy that owes the fans and the people of Toronto an apology for those comments, never mind his poor playoff performance.

 

[Joey Hoser]

You can't even rip into them anymore when they play badly...gotta continue to coddle them and tell them how awesome they are.

How can you say "You can't even rip into them anymore" while most of the fanbase is hysterically ripping into them?

 

[Superstar]

Marner, in his season ending press conference, talked about how tough it was not being able to hang out with his friends during the pandemic.

Think about that for a moment. Think about the doctors, nurses, and EMS workers. Think about the people that haven't worked in a year. Think about people who spent their lives building a business only to have it destroyed. And lastly think about the people who lost their lives, or lost loved ones.

He actually said not being able to hang out with friends was really tough, while collecting millions of dollars.

IMO he is a thoughtless, spoiled, little boy that owes the fans and the people of Toronto an apology for those comments, never mind his poor playoff performance.

I guess his teammates are not his friends...there are people living alone in deep depression, no job and no money, and very little hope...the pandemic has affected everyone...he's an excuse maker, but not very good at it.

 

[ShaneFalco]

3 weeks ago, he was an elite 2-way winger who plays all situations matchup minutes and dominates and today he's a bum

How many games did they play in the last 3 weeks?

Is this what you got from.all this?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

The 14 mil was paid out last off-season, he's getting 9.6 this off-season. 7.25 + 750k salary is manageable for small market teams, Carolina was ready to pay Semin 8 mil and even pay him not to play. I'm sure Marner at 750k year 1 (we pay the 9.6 signing bonus and trade him right after) and 8 mil in year 2 and 3 would have someone like them licking their chops.

Hope your right, but I doubt it. My bad on the $14 m signing bonus - yes it was paid during the last offseason. I think the main point I made still stands though.

What will be entirely different over the next couple of years is the COVID economics and the impact that COVID has already had on revenue for the past 2 years. Owners are going to be more focused on recouping money they've already lost I'd guess. I think we tend to look through the lens of a big market, deep pocket team versus a small market, tight cash flow and self imposed salary limit type of team. Would love to be wrong.

 

[Superstar]

How can you say "You can't even rip into them anymore" while most of the fanbase is hysterically ripping into them?

I wasn't referring to the fanbase...fans could say all kinds of nasty things...I'm sure Keefe, Dubas or Shanahan are not ripping a new one into those guys.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Marner, in his season ending press conference, talked about how tough it was not being able to hang out with his friends during the pandemic.

Think about that for a moment. Think about the doctors, nurses, and EMS workers. Think about the people that haven't worked in a year. Think about people who spent their lives building a business only to have it destroyed. And lastly think about the people who lost their lives, or lost loved ones.

He actually said not being able to hang out with friends was really tough, while collecting millions of dollars.

IMO he is a thoughtless, spoiled, little boy that owes the fans and the people of Toronto an apology for those comments, never mind his poor playoff performance.

Yeah I shook my head at that one and pretty much his whole interview.

 

[Peasy]

Marner, in his season ending press conference, talked about how tough it was not being able to hang out with his friends during the pandemic.

Think about that for a moment. Think about the doctors, nurses, and EMS workers. Think about the people that haven't worked in a year. Think about people who spent their lives building a business only to have it destroyed. And lastly think about the people who lost their lives, or lost loved ones.

He actually said not being able to hang out with friends was really tough, while collecting millions of dollars.

IMO he is a thoughtless, spoiled, little boy that owes the fans and the people of Toronto an apology for those comments, never mind his poor playoff performance.

Yeah hes has come off extremely immature. Like his locker clean out day presser was just a straight disaster. Dude can not read the room at all. Really needs to grow up (hes 24 now btw, not some 19 year old kid).

 

[APV]

... Lets discuss actual realistic scenarios to improve the team ... let's think before we post ... This is very clear to anyone that isn't living in their own NHL fantasy GM mode ... or at least pay attention ... anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional ...

Could you be any more arrogant and condescending? Buddy can you spare some ego?

Realism ≠ Ego...sorry I understand situations and you don't looool

 

[LeafGrief]

Posted this on reddit the other day.

I swear up and down Marner's problem isn't that he doesn't care. I think he cares way, way too much. He is a Leafs fan, so every single ounce of the trauma that we feel about Game 7's, he feels. Then there's the fact that he's lived those disappointments. Then there's the fact that he has the residual guilt of raking his team over the coals for every penny. And then there's the fact that his contract literally has 93 in it, this guy wants to be a franchise legend more than anything else in the world and carries that with him every shift in the playoffs.

He sucked ass in the playoffs this year, but nothing about his body language or facial expressions told me that he didn't care. The pure frustration and dejection that was constantly on his face and in his shoulders showed me a guy who is carrying the weight of the world on his shoulders, but does not have anywhere near the kind of capacity for that. Let me be 100% clear that I have zero sympathy for him here. These are all problems of his own making. The contract and his ego are what did this to him. But funnily enough, while I think OP is correct in that fixing Marner is better than trading him, I think figuring out how to get him to chill the f*** out a little bit is the way to go.

Mitch is dynamite when he's relaxed. When he's got swagger. He doesn't need to ratchet the pressure up and care even more, he needs to calm down and play hockey. Unfortunately, I think that's why a trade is the best case for him, because I doubt you can really just get him to forget all of the shit that he's put himself through here. How do you tell a guy to forget those Doug Gilmour dreams and just be Mitch Marner? If he goes somewhere else that happens pretty much automatically.

If I could push a button and fix Marner to make him a playoff beast, I'd push that button instead of trading him 10/10 times. I think it's next to impossible that we find a good trade. How do you trade the 4th highest scorer in the league and not get put over the barrel? Fixing him is the way to go. But I really don't think it's that simple, or even in the direction that most people assume that it is.
-----

So it's a bit of a relief to hear Dubas say that he won't trade Marner. But the real question is how to we fix this guy mentally. He scored 9 points in 7 games against the big bad Bruins as a sophomore. The talent is in there. It's almost completely unbelievable that of all the young stars in the league we got the one who is a dud in the playoffs. Marner will figure it out eventually, so how do the Leafs help him do that when the pressure is going to be EVEN BIGGER on him next year. Failure was already not an option, the pressure on him is going to be astronomical now that he's going to have to justify his existence to us every time he steps on the ice and triple that in the playoffs. He was total ass last year after he signed his contract, I'm afraid that we're going to be headed for another year of that. While I don't believe that he'll be a playoff dud, unfortunately all of this pressure that he's created for himself has turned him into a bit of a headcase that effects his performance.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Posted this on reddit the other day.

I swear up and down Marner's problem isn't that he doesn't care. I think he cares way, way too much. He is a Leafs fan, so every single ounce of the trauma that we feel about Game 7's, he feels. Then there's the fact that he's lived those disappointments. Then there's the fact that he has the residual guilt of raking his team over the coals for every penny. And then there's the fact that his contract literally has 93 in it, this guy wants to be a franchise legend more than anything else in the world and carries that with him every shift in the playoffs.

He sucked ass in the playoffs this year, but nothing about his body language or facial expressions told me that he didn't care. The pure frustration and dejection that was constantly on his face and in his shoulders showed me a guy who is carrying the weight of the world on his shoulders, but does not have anywhere near the kind of capacity for that. Let me be 100% clear that I have zero sympathy for him here. These are all problems of his own making. The contract and his ego are what did this to him. But funnily enough, while I think OP is correct in that fixing Marner is better than trading him, I think figuring out how to get him to chill the f*** out a little bit is the way to go.

Mitch is dynamite when he's relaxed. When he's got swagger. He doesn't need to ratchet the pressure up and care even more, he needs to calm down and play hockey. Unfortunately, I think that's why a trade is the best case for him, because I doubt you can really just get him to forget all of the shit that he's put himself through here. How do you tell a guy to forget those Doug Gilmour dreams and just be Mitch Marner? If he goes somewhere else that happens pretty much automatically.

If I could push a button and fix Marner to make him a playoff beast, I'd push that button instead of trading him 10/10 times. I think it's next to impossible that we find a good trade. How do you trade the 4th highest scorer in the league and not get put over the barrel? Fixing him is the way to go. But I really don't think it's that simple, or even in the direction that most people assume that it is.
-----

So it's a bit of a relief to hear Dubas say that he won't trade Marner. But the real question is how to we fix this guy mentally. He scored 9 points in 7 games against the big bad Bruins as a sophomore. The talent is in there. It's almost completely unbelievable that of all the young stars in the league we got the one who is a dud in the playoffs. Marner will figure it out eventually, so how do the Leafs help him do that when the pressure is going to be EVEN BIGGER on him next year. Failure was already not an option, the pressure on him is going to be astronomical now that he's going to have to justify his existence to us every time he steps on the ice and triple that in the playoffs. He was total ass last year after he signed his contract, I'm afraid that we're going to be headed for another year
of that. While I don't believe that he'll be a playoff dud, unfortunately all of this pressure that he's created for himself has turned him into a bit of a headcase that effects his performance.

I don't buy it. If he's such a heart on his sleeve Gilmour fangirl, that pressure and frustration would turn into intensity. Maybe he starts taking slashing penalties, or god forbid maybe he hits someone. He's not Gaudreau, he's 6' 190, you can drop someone if you go up high out of frustration.

His reaction to knowing he's actively screwing the team on the ice and screwed Leaf fans at large by letting Ferris and his dad negotiate through the media is to sulk and mope, not get angry and do something about it.

Not to mention his exit interview. Saying he's going to change nothing about his off-season prep is not something that a guy who "cares too much" would say.