Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[ACC1224]

Nylander isn't getting moved anytime soon lmao.
It's more likely Auston is dealt before Willy given their respective contracts.

Honestly, I think them signing Willy will end up being the end of Mitch in Toronto. I just can't see the team ever being a cup contender if they end up having two wingers with $11m+ contracts. It just doesn't make sense.

None of them are getting moved any time soon most likely. They tried to trade Nylander once, hence the revisit. They haven’t tried to move any of the others as far as we know.

It’s certainly not outrageous to think they try and move the 3rd wheel when they’ve already tried.

 

[TMLegend]

None of them are getting moved any time soon most likely. They tried to trade Nylander once, hence the revisit. They haven’t tried to move any of the others as far as we know.

It’s certainly not outrageous to think they try and move the 3rd wheel when they’ve already tried.

It's wishful thinking. If they wanted to move him they wouldn't have committed to him for 8 years and given him a full NMC on top of that.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Glad you asked. I said Marner doesnt take fitness seriously. Fitness would help him with board battles and staying on his feet. Which for a slow player would be very helpful. His lack of fitness along with his lack of grit/competiteness and high end skills (skating speed, shot speed) makes me not a big fan of him as a player. It's not just fitness that Marner lacks in, most importantly he's lacking in skating speed and shot speed.

Kessel is out of shape, but his skillset got him out of trouble. He had speed to burn.

Marner vs Kucherov?

Let's compare shot speed and speed of Marner and Kucherov.

Per NHL Edge Stats:
 
Kucherov:

Speed:
18-20mph - 89%
20-22mph - 89%
22+mph - 92%

Shot Speed:
70-80 mile hr shots - 94%
80-90 mile hr shots - 97%
90 - 100 mile hr shots - 79%

Marner:

Speed:
18-20mph - below 57%
20-22mph - below 50%
22+mph - below 50%

Shot speed:

70-80 mile hr shots - 56%
80-90 mile hr shots - below 50%
90 - 100 mile hr shots - below 50%

But but but he scored 30 goals!!

It’s not about the amount of goals he scores, it’s about how his skillset dictates how other teams play us in a playoff series where they can laser in on repeatable systemic breakdowns. If Marner is playing with Matthews that means you can comfortably put 2 guys on Matthews to make sure he’s never got a shooting lane. That means Marner is going to be holding the puck most of the shift and you can back him off to the perimeter where he’s neither a shooting threat nor can he burn you with speed or power through a defender physically. Same goes for the PP and PK which bother crater every playoff.

You can keep him at a cheaper number than he’s at now but he can in no way be “the guy” on the top line and PP/PK, he has no elite level physical abilities to force the game to adapt to his will and that makes him easy to shut down, especially when stress and physicality clearly gets him emotional and stuck in his head.

 

[Hellcat]

Glad you asked. I said Marner doesnt take fitness seriously. Fitness would help him with board battles and staying on his feet. Which for a slow player would be very helpful. His lack of fitness along with his lack of grit/competiteness and high end skills (skating speed, shot speed) makes me not a big fan of him as a player. It's not just fitness that Marner lacks in, most importantly he's lacking in skating speed and shot speed.

Kessel is out of shape, but his skillset got him out of trouble. He had speed to burn.

Marner vs Kucherov?

Let's compare shot speed and speed of Marner and Kucherov.

Per NHL Edge Stats:
 
Kucherov:

Speed:
18-20mph - 89%
20-22mph - 89%
22+mph - 92%

Shot Speed:
70-80 mile hr shots - 94%
80-90 mile hr shots - 97%
90 - 100 mile hr shots - 79%

Marner:

Speed:
18-20mph - below 57%
20-22mph - below 50%
22+mph - below 50%

Shot speed:

70-80 mile hr shots - 56%
80-90 mile hr shots - below 50%
90 - 100 mile hr shots - below 50%

Help him staying on his feet? He is one of the most agile players in the league, his edge work is elite. The guy is the 11th highest scoring player over the last 6 years, it's like you are talking about a guy who needs to bulk up to just stay in the league. So lets say he bulks up, loses his lung capacity and now is gassed after 17 minutes... is less ice time going to improve his productivity? He has shoulders like a brook trout, bulking up his chest and shoulders would do zero in terms of winning board battles. He is already elite in stripping pucks. He's not slow and he is not fast.

 

[ACC1224]

It's wishful thinking. If they wanted to move him they wouldn't have committed to him for 8 years and given him a full NMC on top of that.

For sure it’s unlikely but they were always going to re-sign him, they wouldn’t let him walk. They did want to move him, they admitted it.

 

[Hellcat]

Perhaps they revisit moving Nylander?

Maybe? He's locked in for the next 8 years? For me it JT is the guy I would move, it just makes too much sense to move JT, hell if you eat 40% of his salary it still gives you $7 mil in cap to work with, trade Lily and you got 10 mil-ish to work with. We need to be a lot more Las Vegas and a lot less Disneyland when it comes to how we treat our assets. The players signed a contract indicating they would produce at a certain level, Matty, Willie and Marner all did that last year, JT is on the wrong side of 65 points for 11 mil cp hit. I have noting personal against him , I just dont see that investment providing the return that the team is paying for anymore. I have Rielly, JT, Jarnkrok, Kampft and Lilly on the short list to trade and anyone else if it's a steal. Like if Colorado said MacKinnon/Makar/some throw in cap dump for Marner, JT (salary retained) and Rielly. Done.. I'd do it in a heart beat, everyone is avail for the right price.

 

[Racer88]

I dont get the expiring logic, all four have NMC/NTC. IMO anyone on the roster is a target to be moved. Give Berube half a year to work with these guys, he can then tell Tree, which players he wants and which ones need to be moved.

I get about the NMC/NTC but they are not going to try and trade the 2 guys they just gave contracts to. They shoukd have dealt with this 2 seasons ago.
I too hope Berube can work wonders but I’m not sure he can change their spots

Glad you asked. I said Marner doesnt take fitness seriously. Fitness would help him with board battles and staying on his feet. Which for a slow player would be very helpful. His lack of fitness along with his lack of grit/competiteness and high end skills (skating speed, shot speed) makes me not a big fan of him as a player. It's not just fitness that Marner lacks in, most importantly he's lacking in skating speed and shot speed.

Kessel is out of shape, but his skillset got him out of trouble. He had speed to burn.

Marner vs Kucherov?

Let's compare shot speed and speed of Marner and Kucherov.

Per NHL Edge Stats:
 
Kucherov:

Speed:
18-20mph - 89%
20-22mph - 89%
22+mph - 92%

Shot Speed:
70-80 mile hr shots - 94%
80-90 mile hr shots - 97%
90 - 100 mile hr shots - 79%

Marner:

Speed:
18-20mph - below 57%
20-22mph - below 50%
22+mph - below 50%

Shot speed:

70-80 mile hr shots - 56%
80-90 mile hr shots - below 50%
90 - 100 mile hr shots - below 50%

But but he’s a superstar………

 

[Hellcat]

But but but he scored 30 goals!!

It’s not about the amount of goals he scores, it’s about how his skillset dictates how other teams play us in a playoff series where they can laser in on repeatable systemic breakdowns. If Marner is playing with Matthews that means you can comfortably put 2 guys on Matthews to make sure he’s never got a shooting lane. That means Marner is going to be holding the puck most of the shift and you can back him off to the perimeter where he’s neither a shooting threat nor can he burn you with speed or power through a defender physically. Same goes for the PP and PK which bother crater every playoff.

You can keep him at a cheaper number than he’s at now but he can in no way be “the guy” on the top line and PP/PK, he has no elite level physical abilities to force the game to adapt to his will and that makes him easy to shut down, especially when stress and physicality clearly gets him emotional and stuck in his head.

First time I've seen anyone effectively explain why Marner and not the other 4 big 5. Thanks.

 

[ACC1224]

Maybe? He's locked in for the next 8 years? For me it JT is the guy I would move, it just makes too much sense to move JT, hell if you eat 40% of his salary it still gives you $7 mil in cap to work with, trade Lily and you got 10 mil-ish to work with. We need to be a lot more Las Vegas and a lot less Disneyland when it comes to how we treat our assets. The players signed a contract indicating they would produce at a certain level, Matty, Willie and Marner all did that last year, JT is on the wrong side of 65 points for 11 mil cp hit. I have noting personal against him , I just dont see that investment providing the return that the team is paying for anymore. I have Rielly, JT, Jarnkrok, Kampft and Lilly on the short list to trade and anyone else if it's a steal. Like if Colorado said MacKinnon/Makar/some throw in cap dump for Marner, JT (salary retained) and Rielly. Done.. I'd do it in a heart beat, everyone is avail for the right price.

For sure Tavares is the one but he’s not going to waive. We always knew the last few years would be tough, have to just live through it.

 

[Antropovsky]

Help him staying on his feet? He is one of the most agile players in the league, his edge work is elite. The guy is the 11th highest scoring player over the last 6 years, it's like you are talking about a guy who needs to bulk up to just stay in the league. So lets say he bulks up, loses his lung capacity and now is gassed after 17 minutes... is less ice time going to improve his productivity? He has shoulders like a brook trout, bulking up his chest and shoulders would do zero in terms of winning board battles. He is already elite in stripping pucks. He's not slow and he is not fast.

Your all over the place. Your talking specifically about huge chests and shoulders, however, I commented on nutrition and fitness in general. I say he's falling, you assume edge work prevents people from falling. Edge work doesn't mean sh&* if he's knocked over from a light push.

Marner is falling all over the place during the playoffs. This is common knowledge.

What your doing is called attacking a straw man. Look it up.

 

[ToneDog]

Maybe? He's locked in for the next 8 years? For me it JT is the guy I would move, it just makes too much sense to move JT, hell if you eat 40% of his salary it still gives you $7 mil in cap to work with, trade Lily and you got 10 mil-ish to work with. We need to be a lot more Las Vegas and a lot less Disneyland when it comes to how we treat our assets. The players signed a contract indicating they would produce at a certain level, Matty, Willie and Marner all did that last year, JT is on the wrong side of 65 points for 11 mil cp hit. I have noting personal against him , I just dont see that investment providing the return that the team is paying for anymore. I have Rielly, JT, Jarnkrok, Kampft and Lilly on the short list to trade and anyone else if it's a steal. Like if Colorado said MacKinnon/Makar/some throw in cap dump for Marner, JT (salary retained) and Rielly. Done.. I'd do it in a heart beat, everyone is avail for the right price.

That trade would win us a SC and it is not happening in a million years. They'd lock Sakic up before they allowed him to make that trade.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Maybe? He's locked in for the next 8 years? For me it JT is the guy I would move, it just makes too much sense to move JT, hell if you eat 40% of his salary it still gives you $7 mil in cap to work with, trade Lily and you got 10 mil-ish to work with. We need to be a lot more Las Vegas and a lot less Disneyland when it comes to how we treat our assets. The players signed a contract indicating they would produce at a certain level, Matty, Willie and Marner all did that last year, JT is on the wrong side of 65 points for 11 mil cp hit. I have noting personal against him , I just dont see that investment providing the return that the team is paying for anymore. I have Rielly, JT, Jarnkrok, Kampft and Lilly on the short list to trade and anyone else if it's a steal. Like if Colorado said MacKinnon/Makar/some throw in cap dump for Marner, JT (salary retained) and Rielly. Done.. I'd do it in a heart beat, everyone is avail for the right price.

I don't think JT will waive, but even if he did, what team will trade for him, even at only $7M cap hit, and virtually no cash? If someone did, what would we get back, or have to add?

I think it's much more likely that he stays this year.

I like your trade suggestion, but I won't hold my breath.

 

[Sypher04]

Maybe? He's locked in for the next 8 years? For me it JT is the guy I would move, it just makes too much sense to move JT, hell if you eat 40% of his salary it still gives you $7 mil in cap to work with, trade Lily and you got 10 mil-ish to work with. We need to be a lot more Las Vegas and a lot less Disneyland when it comes to how we treat our assets. The players signed a contract indicating they would produce at a certain level, Matty, Willie and Marner all did that last year, JT is on the wrong side of 65 points for 11 mil cp hit. I have noting personal against him , I just dont see that investment providing the return that the team is paying for anymore. I have Rielly, JT, Jarnkrok, Kampft and Lilly on the short list to trade and anyone else if it's a steal. Like if Colorado said MacKinnon/Makar/some throw in cap dump for Marner, JT (salary retained) and Rielly. Done.. I'd do it in a heart beat, everyone is avail for the right price.

Why move Rielly?
Rielly is a very good offensive defenseman paid below market value who is about to have the best and most complimentary skilled partner of his entire career.
I’m expecting a very good season from Mo

 

[Arzak]

.. because no one wants MM (already overpaid, checks out when his cottage is open, married, won't bother with the rest of the baggage).

Any GM that signs Marner at 10.9 is clueless.

RFA Marner !

Swiss league bluff, it's still bit too much

 

[Arzak]

[MOD] no one mentioned cap hit, I just said his shot was better than he gets credit for, I didn't even say it was good.

If you don't think his shot is good, why calling it underrated?

 

[Gabriel426]

So contrast Phaneuf who had a hard shot but couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Contrast shootout success rates of the team as an exercise of shot comparison.
Hard shots are something but they aren't everything. I'd say they aren't even most things.

Like I said, poor shot and weak shot are two different things, sometime a shot can be both.

The important thing is getting a goal. Doesn’t matter if it is a 100mph shot or top corner or bounce off someone skate.
Having said that someone having a harder shot is better than someone having a weaker shot in terms of scoring.
Like someone skating closer to McD’s speed will have a higher chance of creating scoring opp than someone skating like JT. But that’s not the golden rule as we have seen first hand what Kap and Soup had done with their great speed.

At the end, if you believe having a harder shot is not an advantage over having a weaker shot, we just need to agree to disagree.

 

[Arzak]

Why move Rielly?
Rielly is a very good offensive defenseman paid below market value who is about to have the best and most complimentary skilled partner of his entire career.
I’m expecting a very good season from Mo

I would not go as far as to call Rielly underpaid, but we don't have anyone else to fill his role. Even if we get better a defenseman, we'll still have a place for MO.

unlike Mitch Marner

 

[notbias]

If you don't think his shot is good, why calling it underrated?

Because his shot is better than people think it is.

 

[Arzak]

Because his shot is better than people think it is.

you think it's not a good shot but you still can't help yourself when other point out his shot is meh? weird

He plays PP1 and 25 min a game, you showed he is around No 45-50 ?

It looks not as bad on a first glance, before you realize he is outperformed by players getting nowhere near his opportunities and minutes. It's worse than people think.

 

[Martin Skoula]

First time I've seen anyone effectively explain why Marner and not the other 4 big 5. Thanks.

I think probably Kane is the best comparable, the main difference is Kane’s shot is elite. He had a higher goal scoring peak but their average season is in the same ballpark, albeit Marner in a higher scoring league. The totals don’t matter as much as the space Kane’s shot threat opens up on the rest of the ice for him to pass to. That shot + ice in his veins is the difference between them in the playoffs, that’s why it’s so frustrating to watch Mitch because both of those things are reasonably achievable if he puts the work in but instead we see the same player year in year out for almost a decade now.

 

[notbias]

you think it's not a good shot but you still can't help yourself when other point out his shot is meh? weird

He plays PP1 and 25 min a game, you showed he is around No 45-50 ?

It looks not as bad on a first glance, before you realize he is outperformed by players getting nowhere near his opportunities and minutes. It's worse than people think.

Is opportunity just TOI? Wouldn't it be shots? His sh% is high.

I'll let you use distance and any other metrics you want to normalize the results.

MoneyPuck thinks he has a 10% higher shooting talent above average which ranks him 112 in the NHL.

He scored 4 more goals than his xG.

These take into consideration all tips of goals which is why I gave the wrist/snap/slap stats.

If I think he has an average to slightly above average shot and people think he can't beat goalies because he's too weak, I'd call it underrated.

 

[ToneDog]

Why move Rielly?
Rielly is a very good offensive defenseman paid below market value who is about to have the best and most complimentary skilled partner of his entire career.
I’m expecting a very good season from Mo

In a deal for Makar? In a heartbeat.

 

[myleafs]

Your all over the place. Your talking specifically about huge chests and shoulders, however, I commented on nutrition and fitness in general. I say he's falling, you assume edge work prevents people from falling. Edge work doesn't mean sh&* if he's knocked over from a light push.

Marner is falling all over the place during the playoffs. This is common knowledge.

What your doing is called attacking a straw man. Look it up.

Im not sure what that posters relation to Marner is but there is something there. The degree that person will go to defend 16 is weird unless its someone close to him, which would make the most sense.

 

[Hellcat]

I think probably Kane is the best comparable, the main difference is Kane’s shot is elite. He had a higher goal scoring peak but their average season is in the same ballpark, albeit Marner in a higher scoring league. The totals don’t matter as much as the space Kane’s shot threat opens up on the rest of the ice for him to pass to. That shot + ice in his veins is the difference between them in the playoffs, that’s why it’s so frustrating to watch Mitch because both of those things are reasonably achievable if he puts the work in but instead we see the same player year in year out for almost a decade now.

Last three years he has averaged higher than 15 SH%, his issue is that he does not take shots, he is normally in around 170 SOG/yr, not that he is a bad shooter.

Why move Rielly?
Rielly is a very good offensive defenseman paid below market value who is about to have the best and most complimentary skilled partner of his entire career.
I’m expecting a very good season from Mo

He's a 2/3 that is dressed up as a 1 that at times struggles in his own zone, IMO he is not good value. Good player not good value.

 

[Hellcat]

I don't think JT will waive, but even if he did, what team will trade for him, even at only $7M cap hit, and virtually no cash? If someone did, what would we get back, or have to add?

I think it's much more likely that he stays this year.

I like your trade suggestion, but I won't hold my breath.

It's the same logic I see people pushing here for Mitch, its the cap space and flexibility we would get in trading him.

That trade would win us a SC and it is not happening in a million years. They'd lock Sakic up before they allowed him to make that trade.

That Makar is a special player, how he does not win the Norris every year is beyond me, probably playing in the West hurts his exposure. I saw an expose on him, they talked about his impact on the game and apparently his metrics were Bobby Orr like.