Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Nineteen67]

Why would a team willing to pay give up anything for additionally for Marner before he enters UFA?
Why would Marner dilute his haul from such a team by insisting they should pay the Leafs first?

Those are some of the barriers, but a team could get the additional 8th year and have him for 9 total yrs.

 

[Nineteen67]

Exactly. Marner is in for a big reality check.

He’s going to get paid next summer even if he has horrible season and another bad playoffs.

 

[Racer88]

I would certainly hope not.
Looking at stats alone is for the fans. Reference these threads for that.

Winning the Cup involves looking at everything. Construction, cap, history, compete, playoff styles, direct competition, etc.

True dat

 

[ToneDog]

He’s going to get paid next summer even if he has horrible season and another bad playoffs.

Sure but it may be for less than he wants. He should talk to Johnny Hockey.

 

[Notsince67]

I could only imagine because that team wants him now, doesn’t want to get into a UFA bidding war where another team could drive up the price or thinks the Leafs may cave before UFA and sign him anyway.

Other than that, I can’t see anyone but the Leafs possibly paying him more than what MacKinnon is scheduled to make this year.
He’s not worth 12 million to me, but the Leafs have dug themselves a hole with previous contracts and giving Nylander 11.5.

There is some truth in this but I would say that it began way before Willy's 11.5. Not signing Marner at 8.5MM for 8 years a year before his RFA was the beginning.
Waiting a year now to resign Marner (which will likely happen) and giving him a chance for a career year will spectacularly backfire and everyone will be left wondering why the "Stuupid" Leafs don't learn from their past mistakes.

As an aside, there were a ton of people on this forum that were against an 8.5mm x 8 back when it was suggested.
Not a lot of armchair pundits have put a risk reward factor to their calculus.

Those are some of the barriers, but a team could get the additional 8th year and have him for 9 total yrs.

In a world where the escrow is now paid and the Cap is rising quickly, few people would be attracted to an 8th year.

 

[ToneDog]

Those are some of the barriers, but a team could get the additional 8th year and have him for 9 total yrs.

I can see a deal to a team that wants to move a pending UFA. See Shea Theodore.

 

[ACC1224]

I could only imagine because that team wants him now, doesn’t want to get into a UFA bidding war where another team could drive up the price or thinks the Leafs may cave before UFA and sign him anyway.

Other than that, I can’t see anyone but the Leafs possibly paying him more than what MacKinnon is scheduled to make this year.
He’s not worth 12 million to me, but the Leafs have dug themselves a hole with previous contracts and giving Nylander 11.5.

This seems to be the biggest issue.

 

[ToneDog]

There is some truth in this but I would say that it began way before Willy's 11.5. Not signing Marner at 8.5MM for 8 years a year before his RFA was the beginning.
Waiting a year now to resign Marner (which will likely happen) and giving him a chance for a career year will spectacularly backfire and everyone will be left wondering why the "Stuupid" Leafs don't learn from their past mistakes.

As an aside, there were a ton of people on this forum that were against an 8.5mm x 8 back when it was suggested.
Not a lot of armchair pundits have put a risk reward factor to their calculus.


In a world where the escrow is now paid and the Cap is rising quickly, few people would be attracted to an 8th year.

How much do you honestly think they will save by signing Marner July 1, 2024 as opposed to June 2025? If he signs, he most likely gets between Willie and Matty. Tre paniced and signed Willie when he should have waited and it cost him $1.5mx8.

Had Marner signed for closer to 8.5m than 11m, he might still be in Leafs plans. At $12m, see yeah.

 

[Nineteen67]

Sure but it may be for less than he wants. He should talk to Johnny Hockey.

Maybe if he wants to play for certain teams, but others may pay him to sell jerseys.

 

[Nineteen67]

How much do you honestly think they will save by signing Marner July 1, 2024 as opposed to June 2025? If he signs, he most likely gets between Willie and Matty. Tre paniced and signed Willie when he should have waited and it cost him $1.5mx8.

Had Marner signed for closer to 8.5m than 11m, he might still be in Leafs plans. At $12m, see yeah.

At 8.5 he’d react differently when Marchand warns him to keep his head up?

 

[ToneDog]

Maybe if he wants to play for certain teams, but others may pay him to sell jerseys.

He'd look great in a Yetis jersey. It makes too much sense. He can become the leader and the face of the franchise. He is not not leading any team to a SC as the alpha dog so you may as well use him to sell tickets, jerseys and make appearances in children's hospitals.

 

[ToneDog]

At 8.5 he’d react differently when Marchand warns him to keep his head up?

You can't change the spots on a leopard but if they all took less you could have surrounded them with more tigers. Unfortunately for 5 years, Dubas surrounded them with garbage and the team was stuck in the mud while Zito lapped Dubas and Shanny. They were 14 points ahead of the Panthers 5 years ago. With a competent GM, we'd be playing tomorrow night instead of Florida.

 

[Trapper]

How much do you honestly think they will save by signing Marner July 1, 2024 as opposed to June 2025? If he signs, he most likely gets between Willie and Matty. Tre paniced and signed Willie when he should have waited and it cost him $1.5mx8.

Had Marner signed for closer to 8.5m than 11m, he might still be in Leafs plans. At $12m, see yeah.

If Marner was making 8.5 x 8, the name of this thread would be Nylander because I’d be trading him for D and goaltending balance.

Unfortunately, Dubas, Marner and his agent put us here. Tre made it worse by giving Willy 11.5. Don’t be mad at the fans wanting to move on after a 8 year sample size now. But that’s where we are. So we pick one and move the other.

Just like Chicago had Toews on one line and Kane on the other.

For me it’s, Matthews with Bertuzzi/DeBrusk and a Domi with Nylander/Knies and a different 2C.

It could have been Marner at 9-10 million over Willy, but not both now. And both are the same type of playoff issue player. Nylander isn’t blameless in this, but he’s signed and is the better goal scorer.
Pick one. Build from the net out.

 

[Nineteen67]

He'd look great in a Yetis jersey. It makes too much sense. He can become the leader and the face of the franchise. He is not not leading any team to a SC as the alpha dog so you may as well use him to sell tickets, jerseys and make appearances in hospitals.

They have a lot of good young players and I think they’re close to competing for a playoff spot. Might be a good fit.
The Leafs have put themselves in a really bad spot, not just with this trade, but the entire roster, and I have no confidence Treliving will be able to fix it.

 

[The Masters]

Let's see if Tre can pull this trade off and if Marner will accept. Thinking Vegas takes him cuz cap going up

 

[Nineteen67]

You can't change the spots on a leopard but if they all took less you could have surrounded them with more tigers. Unfortunately for 5 years, Dubas surrounded them with garbage and the team was stuck in the mud while Zito lapped Dubas and Shanny. They were 14 points ahead of the Panthers 5 years ago. With a competent GM, we'd be playing tomorrow night instead of Florida.

Probably wouldn’t be playing tomorrow with Matthews leading the team. They lost to TTOE

 

[ToneDog]

Probably wouldn’t be playing tomorrow with Matthews leading the team. They lost to TTOE

Yeah that is my concern. Building a house on 4 stilts is never a good idea.

 

[Notsince67]

How much do you honestly think they will save by signing Marner July 1, 2024 as opposed to June 2025? If he signs, he most likely gets between Willie and Matty. Tre paniced and signed Willie when he should have waited and it cost him $1.5mx8.

Had Marner signed for closer to 8.5m than 11m, he might still be in Leafs plans. At $12m, see yeah.

Honestly?
Let me answer with some facts.
The projected Salary cap in 2026 is 92MM. The tragectory is up. A Mac Cap hit % at that level equates to a number north of 14mm so his 12.6 hit is a bit misleading. You have a lot of teams who would have a jump of cap room in the next 3 years looking to bid on top players, causing an inflationary spiral to the bottom. Teams should be doing everything possible to avoid a bidding war for any player. Dumping a 12+MM contract in future years won't be tough if it comes to that. Better to lock up an asset with a growing market than to be forced to pay too high to get one later.

 

[centipede2233]

I think it’s just easier just to not even follow the leafs at all. Let MLSE do what they please. They don’t have a clue how to hire competent people to run their franchise. Take up excercise, or something constructive, talking about millionaires who refer to themselves as gods is wasted energy. F*** shanahan and anyone in that organization.

 

[thewave]

I think it’s just easier just to not even follow the leafs at all. Let MLSE do what they please. They don’t have a clue how to hire competent people to run their franchise. Take up excercise, or something constructive, talking about millionaires who refer to themselves as gods is wasted energy. F*** shanahan and anyone in that organization.

Hard to argue this in 2024.

 

[ToneDog]

Honestly?
Let me answer with some facts.
The projected Salary cap in 2026 is 92MM. The tragectory is up. A Mac Cap hit % at that level equates to a number north of 14mm so his 12.6 hit is a bit misleading. You have a lot of teams who would have a jump of cap room in the next 3 years looking to bid on top players, causing an inflationary spiral to the bottom. Teams should be doing everything possible to avoid a bidding war for any player. Dumping a 12+MM contract in future years won't be tough if it comes to that. Better to lock up an asset with a growing market than to be forced to pay too high to get one later.

Agreed with the cap rising he could ask for that number but I doubt Leafs would want to pay anybody more than Matthews. Leafs cannot pay Marner like they could not pay Hyman. As @Trapper said, had he signed closer to 8.5m and I'd add for 8 years, we'd be talking about moving Willie.

I think it’s just easier just to not even follow the leafs at all. Let MLSE do what they please. They don’t have a clue how to hire competent people to run their franchise. Take up excercise, or something constructive, talking about millionaires who refer to themselves as gods is wasted energy. F*** shanahan and anyone in that organization.

This ^ 100% if they run it back.

 

[Nineteen67]

Honestly?
Let me answer with some facts.
The projected Salary cap in 2026 is 92MM. The tragectory is up. A Mac Cap hit % at that level equates to a number north of 14mm so his 12.6 hit is a bit misleading. You have a lot of teams who would have a jump of cap room in the next 3 years looking to bid on top players, causing an inflationary spiral to the bottom. Teams should be doing everything possible to avoid a bidding war for any player. Dumping a 12+MM contract in future years won't be tough if it comes to that. Better to lock up an asset with a growing market than to be forced to pay too high to get one later.

The bigger question is Marner a good enough player to invest in. To date, playoff style hockey has been too tough for him. He’s not alone, collectively this core has underperformed in almost every big game situation: home game 6 on Sunday afternoon, JTs return to Long Island….0 success, all failure.

 

[Mess]

so you believe that anyone can run the team, no experience necessary just by looking at stats?
Makes sense

Nope not what I was suggesting.

Removing Shanahan and giving the Leafs a competent President with a clue on how to ice a competitive hockey team would be a good start.

Shanny has had 10 years and 1 playoff round win, what else would a new CEO need when judging job performance at the top of the hockey tree. This Core 4 disaster is all on him as the one most accountable for the teams failures mostly because he deployed a Clueless Dubass as GM and an Incompetent Keefe as Coach and a Brainless Mark Hunter who filled the Leafs prospect pool with soft small smurfs and wasted all those picks.

A greenhorn President hires a greenhorn Director of Amateur scouting & greenhorn GM who in turn hires his BFF greenhorn Coach.

MLSE figuratively hired their own version of the 4 stooges to run the Leafs .. Shemp, Curly, Larry and Moe. and can't figure out WHY everything has failed miserably.

It was Mark Hunter hire the brought Mitch Marner to the Leafs in the 1st place, because he played for his London Knights team prior.

Everything below will fall into place IF the objective is to win Cups not just fill the arena and rake in profits.

So I'm not suggesting the CEO make player personnel decisions, but rather smart management decisions that will funnel down to qualified people making player personnel decisions, which will turn into playoff success.

I just didn't want to type that all out, but the buck now does stop with him (so to speak), because the new CEO with be evaluated now on team performance results.

 

[ACC1224]

Nope not what I was suggesting.

Removing Shanahan and giving the Leafs a competent President with a clue on how to ice a competitive hockey team would be a good start.

Shanny has had 10 years and 1 playoff round win, what else would a new CEO need when judging job performance at the top of the hockey tree. This Core 4 disaster is all on him as the one most accountable for the teams failures mostly because he deployed a Clueless Dubass as GM and an Incompetent Keefe as Coach and a Brainless Mark Hunter who filled the Leafs prospect pool with soft small smurfs and wasted all those picks.

It was Mark Hunter hire the brought Mitch Marner to the Leafs in the 1st place, because he played for his London Knights team prior.

Everything below will fall into place IF the objective is to win Cups not just fill the arena and rake in profits.

So I'm not suggesting the CEO make player personnel decisions, but rather smart management decisions that will funnel down to qualified people making player personnel decisions, which will turn into playoff success.

I just didn't want to type that all out, but the buck now does stop with him (so to speak)

Yes, not suggested but actually said.

Shanahan certainly doesn't

All Pelley has to do is look at Leafs playoff scorers and see 1 goal and 2 assists for Marner in 7 games and that should be enough evidence for anyone to say its time to move on.

If that is not his Cup of tea then simply get rid of Shanahan and give us a President that has a clue about icing a competitive playoff team.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I don't understand how anyone who follows this team could want Marner back.

There's not enough dope in the world to get me to that level. No matter how much I smoke I just don't see it. Bringing Marner back is a bad idea no matter how you slice it.

They can't afford his salary.

He has a piss poor attitude. Despite wearing an "A" he demonstrates poor leadership through his immature media interactions. His refusal to accept personal accountability, instead blaming everyone else, makes him a cancer in the dressing room.

And he stinks in the playoffs when it matters most.

I could go on. But I see no reason to admonish Marner beyond my own amusement or those foolish to read anything I have written. The point is that anyone with half a brain and two eyes can see trading Marner is a necessity.

If I can see it so can everyone else.