Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Racer88]

The Florida strat is to hit anything that moves.

Do we really think Mitch Marner would be able to perform in a series like that?

Since when do we evaluate current tradings/signings based on their past performance?

That JT signing is good now?

The hoops people jump through...

For the years of complaining about people quoting expected goals, let me present you with: Expected Trade Value



Ok, we have Klingberg, Reaves and Brodie, now what?

The cap is only valuable if people use it correctly.

My new favourite….expected trade value

 

[Gabriel426]

He would get destroyed. The one thing about that series is it is showing us how far away from an actual contender we really are.

As of now. Oilers is pretty much what the Leafs wanted to be, their big guys playing at top level and hide the issue with Depth, defense and goaltending. But Panthers is showing you need balance, grit, and grind to win the Cup. Really like what Maurice said about his team is build to play 7 games in each series.

 

[notDatsyuk]

On our current roster he has been our best playoff performer. The way to improvement is to start by replacing that guy. Makes sense to most around here. Not me..

This year Matthews, Nylander, Bertuzzi, Domi, Rielly, Boosh, and Woll, at least, were better playoff performers.

Only one of them had a higher salary.

 

[notDatsyuk]

You might be right wrt Nylander but if you look at what Tre got for Tkachuk, a 30-40 goal scorer (e.g. Jarvis, Raymond, Kyrou, Konecny, Ek) and a 1st is very possible if a GM wants him badly.

Which would you rather have, particularly in the playoffs: Marner or Tkachuk?

 

[notDatsyuk]

To get to games 5, 6, and 7, you need to play well in games 1-4.

To get a sweep, you need to play well in games 1-4.

I think all games matter, I'll agree that closing a series out is very important, not sure it needs to be restricted to 5, 6, and 7.

Just anytime we've had a chance to close out a series.

Considering that we haven't been up 3-0, "anytime we've had a chance to close out a series" would be games 6 and 7 and maybe 5.

Considering that we haven't been down 3-0, any time we've faced elimination would be games 6 and 7 and maybe 5.

 

[Gabriel426]

Considering that we haven't been up 3-0, "anytime we've had a chance to close out a series" would be games 6 and 7 and maybe 5.

Considering that we haven't been down 3-0, any time we've faced elimination would be games 6 and 7 and maybe 5.

Didn’t the Panthers went up 3-0 against us and didn’t Bruins did that a few years back too?

 

[notDatsyuk]

We don't have that either... how does being less productive and getting scored on more mean that one player is driving a line and the other isn't?

Matthews and Nylander have been the drivers on their respective lines for several years, whether you want to see it or not.

Probably even more so if/when Willy is moved to 2C.

 

[notbias]

How is it expected trade value on a future event when the value at the time of the trade was regarded heavily in the Flames favor?

Go open the main board thread or other threads?

If we were judging the deal based off the past alone, it would be a top 5 trade ever. 115pt winger

The trade at the time was being judged on what was the probable future performance of Huberdeau? Which I said was a ppg winger.

A trade has 2 facets. The immediate impact at the time of the trade where value is assessed based on assets changing places on trade date

And the final trade outcome based on future results which determine who ultimately won or lost the trade

If the leafs deal marner for a package around Forsberg + Carrier + 1st + or
Fiala + Clarke + 1st or
Kaprizov + Brodin + 1st

That would be viewed as a clear cut steal for the leafs at the day of the trade

Your getting wingers better (kaprizov) or 80/85% as good as Marner along with multiple other high end assets all while Marner has 1 year of control and a NMC.

Leafs would not expecr any of those 3 wingers to stop being 80-100 pt players.

The huberdeau extension was 1.5-2M overpay at the time, and now with his shit play its a good 5M overpay.

The trade ended uo being a failure ultimately, but it was well designed and one you would find success with more times than not

Well, if you look at the actual return and how they performed, you get the real return.

So because Treliving and the majority of this board were bad at player evaluation the trade is considered a win?

This is really weird logic and makes no sense.

It isn't even like it aged badly, it was bad the first season.

Considering that we haven't been up 3-0, "anytime we've had a chance to close out a series" would be games 6 and 7 and maybe 5.

Considering that we haven't been down 3-0, any time we've faced elimination would be games 6 and 7 and maybe 5.

Maybe if other players played better at the start of the series like Marner we'd have more of those leads.

I'd rather a player who can close out series, but pretending like they hold so much more value over the early games is just silly.

Matthews and Nylander have been the drivers on their respective lines for several years, whether you want to see it or not.

Probably even more so if/when Willy is moved to 2C.

Nylander rarely drives his line... he is a 65pt player in the playoffs, we need better.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Rielly has been great, I think you can argue either him or Matthews has been the best.

Him getting easier matchups means what?

This alright?

The 'easier matchups' argument is even sillier than the '+/-' argument.

It has been shown that quality of linemates is much more important than quality of opponents, as your opponents are changing constantly though a game.

 

[notbias]

The 'easier matchups' argument is even sillier than the '+/-' argument.

It has been shown that quality of linemates is much more important than quality of opponents, as your opponents are changing constantly though a game.

Can he drive a line or not?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Can he drive a line or not?

If you have to ask, you haven't been paying attention.

The answer is yes.

 

[notbias]

If you have to ask, you haven't been paying attention.

The answer is yes.

Expected line driving now? 65pt pace is not good line driving.

 

[Gabriel426]

Expected line driving now? 65pt pace is not good line driving.

What? Willie be the line driver for his line the past few seasons. Even his haters will give him that.

As for trades. At of this moment, the Flames lost the trade but if that 1st rounder become someone like Bergy and help Flames win the Cup, then Flames win the trade.

That’s why I hate it when people say, we need to win the trade….if the trade makes the team better and then winning the Cup, then the team won that trade. Like even if MM got us Makar or McD one for one. If Avs or Oilers win Cup or Cups after getting MM and Leafs still a playoffs team that win ONE round in 8 yrs, Leafs lost the trade.
Just like even if MM get traded for pure futures that didn’t even crack the NHL and the the caphit went to UFAs who disappointed but they end up winning a Cup or two, then Leafs win the trade.

 

[I am Canadian]

Would it really be that bad to deal Marner for picks and prospects?

You then flip the picks and prospects for another defender, no?

 

[Confucius]

Do you remember the year when Mark Fraser led the Leafs in plus minus? We had only two players better than +10, Kadri at +15 and Fraser at +18.

This season, our top five forwards in plus minus were Matthews, Marner, Jarnkrok, McMann and Holmberg. And the best plus minus rating in the playoffs belonged to Lyubushkin.

Does that make you reconsider your position? Or are you going to stick with +- means "quite a bit"?

Mark Fraser? Bro, we talking playoffs what do meaningless regular season numbers have to do with playoff performance?

 

[Dreakmur]

I don't understand the weird obsession with ignoring games 1-4 like they don't matter.

It does explain why they get deep into series and eventually lose.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Mark Fraser? Bro, we talking playoffs what do meaningless regular season numbers have to do with playoff performance?

We were talking plus minus, I told you that the hockey world dismissed that as a useful stat a long time ago, and that means regular season, playoffs, everything. But wait, are you now saying that plus minus is meaningless during the regular season, but meaningful in the playoffs? So you object to the Mark Fraser stats because they're regular season but you're OK with saying Lyubushkin was our best player in the playoffs?

 

[Notsince67]

If you think he wasn't bad last year and points tell the story, there's nothing more to say here. I figure there are 4 possibilities:

1 - you didn't watch the playoffs
2 - you watched the playoffs, but your Marner bias is preventing you from understanding what you're watching
3 - you don't understand hockey
4 - you're part of Marner's camp and pumping his tires here is your job

Like usual you need help here. Marner outperformed Willy last year. A simple analysis would show this. Marner had a bigger impact on winning games and less of an negative impact on losing games.
Only the lazy and dumb would say such things.

 

[Dreakmur]

If we got the same return, signed them to 8 year deals and they fell off that hard, I don't think people would be too happy.

That means the contract was bad, not the trade.

But I guess if you ignore the players post-trade and just look at them pre-trade, then sure, it was a great return and the Calgary Flames are in a great position for years to come.

1 year of Tkachuk for 1 year of Huberdeau and 7 years of Weegar. That’s an excellent trade.

 

[MCR74]

Treliving should sit Marner/Ferris down and show them Florida in action. "That's 12M worth of talent". "This is not" (pointing to Mitch).

 

[Gary Nylund]

Like usual you need help here. Marner outperformed Willy last year. A simple analysis would show this. Marner had a bigger impact on winning games and less of an negative impact on losing games.
Only the lazy and dumb would say such things.

Let me know if you ever get tired of the schoolyard insults and feel like discussing hockey like a adult.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Marner outperformed Willy last year.

Yaaaaaaawwwnnnn.

It doesn’t matter. He has to go.

The team needs change and it’s moving on from Marner.

Marner would be stupid to come back. I wouldn’t put it past him.

 

[Nineteen67]

Like usual you need help here. Marner outperformed Willy last year. A simple analysis would show this. Marner had a bigger impact on winning games and less of an negative impact on losing games.
Only the lazy and dumb would say such things.

They really should be looking at trading any combination of those three under performers. Marner is the biggest punk, so he’s a logical choice.

 

[Confucius]

We were talking plus minus, I told you that the hockey world dismissed that as a useful stat a long time ago, and that means regular season, playoffs, everything. But wait, are you now saying that plus minus is meaningless during the regular season, but meaningful in the playoffs? So you object to the Mark Fraser stats because they're regular season but you're OK with saying Lyubushkin was our best player in the playoffs?

Just trying to keep everything constant, if regular season stats matter as much as playoffs stats in determine how good a player is I’m good with that. The league still feels it’s useful otherwise why bother to track it?

I really don’t remember Fraser, lol but he must have been awesome to be a plus 18 in 48 games on the Leafs that season. Best player probably not but if he also had more points than anybody else, I’d probably say yes based on stats

 

[MCR74]

Yaaaaaaawwwnnnn.

It doesn’t matter. He has to go.

The team needs change and it’s moving on from Marner.

Marner would be stupid to come back. I wouldn’t put it past him.

Exactly. Who cares if he outperformed Nylander?

Now do the playoffs...