Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[hamzarocks]

I don't know if we should be aiming for the return that Tre got for Tkachuk...

It was an incredible return

He robbed the panthers at the time

No one expected Huberdeau to fall off as bad as he did. He was 85-90 pt wingee even excluding the 115 pt outlier year.

A ppg+ winger, a 45 pt #2D, a 1st and a B- prospect for a Winger who asked out and had limited places he would go was a haul

If preds dealt us Forsberg + Carrier (signed) + 2024 1st in this draft (18th OA i think) + Reid Schaefer (C prospect at this point) I think people would expect that as great value for Marner

Leafs couldnt predict Forsberg to go from 80-90 pts to 50

 

[Gabriel426]

Yes and I am saying all the core 4 + rielly (though he is a d-man so hmif he was ahead of the core 4 hed be a tier better than he is) are not producing enough

We extended nylander to a terrible 11.5M and Matthews despite his choking habits is a generational goal scorer who probably can be a top 2 player for a cup winner

Marner is the odd man left. You cant give 12-13M x 8 to him. That is insanity.

Tavares is a cap dump otherwise if he had value he would be the guy to move based on age and performance and future outlook

Marner has to go otherwise its going to be the same summer again and same playoff loss next June

The only other option short of the core 4 finding out how not to see their production fall off a cliff next year is Cowan making the team and being a 60-70 pt rookie as D+2 player. That would change the complexion if this team and basically give us a core level player for 2 years + JT 11M to add 2 high end pices on top of the WN, AM, MM and Cowan

Problem is cap allocation.
You just can’t have three 11mil plus players on the team and expect to win. Unless those three are McD, Mack and Makar.

If AM, MM and Willie had better playoffs stats not just personal stats but also Series win. Then bringing them back make sense. However, they only had ONE series Win in the last 8 yrs and their personal stats are pretty bad.

 

[HolyCrap]

If you think he wasn't bad last year and points tell the story, there's nothing more to say here. I figure there are 4 possibilities:

1 - you didn't watch the playoffs
2 - you watched the playoffs, but your Marner bias is preventing you from understanding what you're watching
3 - you don't understand hockey
4 - you're part of Marner's camp and pumping his tires here is your job

You’re wasting your time. Honestly, that poster wouldn’t know what a puck is if it hit him in the face. lol.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think trading Nylander would have been best, that ship has sailed, so if we can improve the team by trading Marner, sure.

I want to win

I would trade all of them and start over bc they are all Betas none of them are alphas.
But since that’s not realistic need to find a model that would help. Which is Vegas.
Stone and Marchessault are the Alphas of the team but Eichel is the highest paid and most talented player.
Marchessault is available via UFA and I think him playing on AM’s RW will have a positive impact on AM.

 

[ToneDog]

It was an incredible return

He robbed the panthers at the time

No one expected Huberdeau to fall off as bad as he did. He was 85-90 pt wingee even excluding the 115 pt outlier year.

A ppg+ winger, a 45 pt #2D, a 1st and a B- prospect for a Winger who asked out and had limited places he would go was a haul

If preds dealt us Forsberg + Carrier (signed) + 2024 1st in this draft (18th OA i think) + Reid Schaefer (C prospect at this point) I think people would expect that as great value for Marner

Leafs couldnt predict Forsberg to go from 80-90 pts to 50

Exactly. He got better than market value given GMs knew MT wanted out and could list the teams he was willing to extend with. Zito lucked out with Tkachuk who has become a playoff warrior and has taken them to two SCFs, while Hubbie has been a disappointment in Calgary.

The difference between MT an MM is that Mitch wants a huge overpay and is softer than a roll of charmin. Tre needs to find a GM desperate to add Marner or the return will most likely be disappointing.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You’re wasting your time. Honestly, that poster wouldn’t know what a puck is if it hit him in the face. lol.

LOLOL. Yeah, you're probably right.

Exactly. He got better than market value given GMs knew MT wanted out and could list the teams he was willing to extend with. Zito lucked out with Tkachuk who has become a playoff warrior and has taken them to two SCFs, while Hubbie has been a disappointment in Calgary.

The difference between MT an MM is that Mitch wants a huge overpay and is softer than a roll of charmin. Tre needs to find a GM desperate to add Marner or the return will most likely be disappointing.

I'd be fine with a minimal return myself, but I'm concerned about the rumors that the Leafs "don't want to lose the trade badly" or something like that. Maybe I'm just being paranoid but my worst fear is that the main goal isn't to win, but to not look bad and that may lead them to bending over for Marner because they think that won't look as bad as letting him walk. And as far as casual fans go, they're probably right too.

 

[Gabriel426]

Exactly. He got better than market value given GMs knew MT wanted out and could list the teams he was willing to extend with. Zito lucked out with Tkachuk who has become a playoff warrior and has taken them to two SCFs, while Hubbie has been a disappointment in Calgary.

The difference between MT an MM is that Mitch wants a huge overpay and is softer than a roll of charmin. Tre needs to find a GM desperate to add Marner or the return will most likely be disappointing.

I think when he is traded, it will be a solid trade for the Leafs. Don’t think it will be a fleecing deal like the Cats and Flames but it will be a good deal for the Leafs.

 

[notbias]

It was an incredible return

He robbed the panthers at the time

No one expected Huberdeau to fall off as bad as he did. He was 85-90 pt wingee even excluding the 115 pt outlier year.

A ppg+ winger, a 45 pt #2D, a 1st and a B- prospect for a Winger who asked out and had limited places he would go was a haul

If preds dealt us Forsberg + Carrier (signed) + 2024 1st in this draft (18th OA i think) + Reid Schaefer (C prospect at this point) I think people would expect that as great value for Marner

Leafs couldnt predict Forsberg to go from 80-90 pts to 50

If we got the same return, signed them to 8 year deals and they fell off that hard, I don't think people would be too happy.

But I guess if you ignore the players post-trade and just look at them pre-trade, then sure, it was a great return and the Calgary Flames are in a great position for years to come.

 

[hamzarocks]

If we got the same return, signed them to 8 year deals and they fell off that hard, I don't think people would be too happy.

But I guess if you ignore the players post-trade and just look at them pre-trade, then sure, it was a great return and the Calgary Flames are in a great position for years to come.

The post trade outcome doesnt impact the value at the time of a deal

marner for Mcdavid 1 for 1, mcdavid falls off inexplicably and is a 70 pt guy at 14M. Is that a horrible deal?

The extension can be argued as poor but even that is with hindsight of knowing JH would fall to a 50 pt player

At 80 pt expectation ( safe assumption based on his play from 2018 to 2021). He should have came in at 9M

Flame would have still overpaid by 1.5M but they likely are in the WCSF or WCF these past two years if Huberdeau gices them ppg like was expected.

Flames are in a poor position due to Huberdeau failing to live up to his ejd of the bargain.

They are a 1st/2nd round playoff team like the leafs if yoy replace Huberdeau with a winger like Fiala/Guentzel who brings ppg+ play past 2 years

 

[Gabriel426]

If we got the same return, signed them to 8 year deals and they fell off that hard, I don't think people would be too happy.

But I guess if you ignore the players post-trade and just look at them pre-trade, then sure, it was a great return and the Calgary Flames are in a great position for years to come.

The guy that fell off the cliff is Hubie. Which was unexpected. He was penciled in as McD’s LW on Team Canada at the time of the trade. Most will still take Weegar and his caphit.

Still think a MM for Parayko, Binnington, 1st in 25 and 2nd in 26 will be good for both teams

 

[Racer88]

Marner is the one who needs to move.
Tavares (if he stays) will take care of the situation for us. His salary and term are only going to decrease. Marner is going to take more without giving it.
Marner has 11 goals in 8 years, for 11 million, that’s just not feasible. The same number as Rielly.
His best year (3 goals in a playoff series) came last year when Marner and Rielly were just wristing them in from above the circles against a horrible Vas. Both assisting on each other. Rielly (a defenceman with no shot has 11 goals as well). Can’t have a forward doing that at his cost.

Ya I could live with that scenario

 

[therealkoho]

I did include St. Auston 13.25 + Nylander 11.5 + Marner 12.5 = $37.25. Insanity is if we overpay Mitch $12.5m after overpaying for the other two a second time already.

I'm aware, but why is Marner carrying the weight. It's not his fault that Dumbass caved to Matthews and lied to Marner a month before apparently telling Mitch he doesn't have 9m in the budget to pay him when Mitch was ready pen in hand.

None of them has excelled in the playoffs, Mitch fills the most roles on the team and normally excels at all of them. Not saying he should or shouldn't ask for wherever that figure came from, in fact I doubt its validity, but inre what Will got its logical. I really don't believe that agent of his, has sat down with Treliving as of yet.

Whatever happens, happens whether Mitch takes a pay cut, or asks for a dollar more than Matthews doesn't matter. One of them has to go and whomever does will have a positive effect on the rest of the team I really hope.

Have you noticed that over that last two or so years the bromance doesn't get mentioned a whole lot anymore if ever? Egos + $ = problems. There's only 1 that demands to be the highest paid in the league.

 

[arso40]

I think trading Nylander would have been best, that ship has sailed, so if we can improve the team by trading Marner, sure.

I want to win

Thank God your not in charge you still want 20 plus mil on a top line that doesn't produce in the playoffs I'd much rather 2 players on separate lines that can actually drive their lines

 

[notbias]

Thank God your not in charge you still want 20 plus mil on a top line that doesn't produce in the playoffs I'd much rather 2 players on separate lines that can actually drive their lines

We don't have that either... how does being less productive and getting scored on more mean that one player is driving a line and the other isn't?

 

[sunstersun]

The Florida strat is to hit anything that moves.

Do we really think Mitch Marner would be able to perform in a series like that?

 

[arso40]

We don't have that either... how does being less productive and getting scored on more mean that one player is driving a line and the other isn't?

Take 10.9 off the books and re allocate it willy can drive his own line get him a complimentary piece matthews same thing

 

[notbias]

The post trade outcome doesnt impact the value at the time of a deal

marner for Mcdavid 1 for 1, mcdavid falls off inexplicably and is a 70 pt guy at 14M. Is that a horrible deal?

The extension can be argued as poor but even that is with hindsight of knowing JH would fall to a 50 pt player

At 80 pt expectation ( safe assumption based on his play from 2018 to 2021). He should have came in at 9M

Flame would have still overpaid by 1.5M but they likely are in the WCSF or WCF these past two years if Huberdeau gices them ppg like was expected.

Flames are in a poor position due to Huberdeau failing to live up to his ejd of the bargain.

They are a 1st/2nd round playoff team like the leafs if yoy replace Huberdeau with a winger like Fiala/Guentzel who brings ppg+ play past 2 years

Since when do we evaluate current tradings/signings based on their past performance?

That JT signing is good now?

The hoops people jump through...

For the years of complaining about people quoting expected goals, let me present you with: Expected Trade Value

Take 10.9 off the books and re allocate it willy can drive his own line get him a complimentary piece matthews same thing

Ok, we have Klingberg, Reaves and Brodie, now what?

The cap is only valuable if people use it correctly.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I see, maybe when comparing plus minus players on different teams. I think it means quite a bit when just used for players on the same team. I understand, I’m probably incorrect again. I’m just stating my opinion.

Do you remember the year when Mark Fraser led the Leafs in plus minus? We had only two players better than +10, Kadri at +15 and Fraser at +18.

This season, our top five forwards in plus minus were Matthews, Marner, Jarnkrok, McMann and Holmberg. And the best plus minus rating in the playoffs belonged to Lyubushkin.

Does that make you reconsider your position? Or are you going to stick with +- means "quite a bit"?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Marner wasn't bad last year, has led the team in playoff points over the last 3 years, and only he and Matthews are PPG or better in that time frame.

Nylander has fewer points than Rielly over the last 3 years.

Marner has the best goal differential of any player on the Leafs outside of Rielly,

At even strength, over 54 games, Nylander has helped his team score one more goal than being scored on at 5v5, this ties him with Ennis, Gauthier, Plekanec, and Marleau.

Nylander is tied with Rielly for most goals against at 5v5.

All of this looks worse for Nylander if you condense it to a more recent time frame like the last 3 years (-1 at 5v5 and by himself for most goals allowed at 5v5).

There are also two sides to the ice which people forget, and it is why someone like Marner gets a longer leash.

Hope those numbers help.

Sure, but of course you wouldn't mention that Rielly has one more point in three more games, or that Willy is tied with Matthews with the most goals, in fewer games while playing on the second line and even second PP.

Context is a bitch, isn't it?

 

[notbias]

Sure, but of course you wouldn't mention that Rielly has one more point in three more games, or that Willy is tied with Matthews with the most goals, in fewer games while playing on the second line and even second PP.

Context is a bitch, isn't it?

Rielly has been great, I think you can argue either him or Matthews has been the best.

Him getting easier matchups means what?

This alright?

 

[notDatsyuk]

And the team's offense in the playoffs consistently sucks. And his linemate Matthews consistently underperforms. And the PP he runs is consistently crappy. But he has a few more points than everyone else since all the poor offense runs through him, so he must be good then right?

And the shot blocking was from before he was paid I do believe. Think that is below his pay grade now.

Mitch did block one shot in seven games this year. Much better than Willy, who only managed five in four games.

 

[Gabriel426]

Since when do we evaluate current tradings/signings based on their past performance?

That JT signing is good now?

The hoops people jump through...

For the years of complaining about people quoting expected goals, let me present you with: Expected Trade Value



Ok, we have Klingberg, Reaves and Brodie, now what?

The cap is only valuable if people use it correctly.

Monahan and Marchessualt with Willie looks to be a great line.

Just need to be smarter with Cap MGt as we already got 11mil in a C who is at most 4-5mil(ROR money).
Can’t have a soft skill winger who just not built for playoffs.
Watching the Finals now, I can see all of our top guys struggle but can still see AM fighting back and esp Willie scoring key goals but just can’t see MM doing anything based on his Bruins performances where he was afraid to get hit and very hesitant.

 

[hamzarocks]

Since when do we evaluate current tradings/signings based on their past performance?

That JT signing is good now?

The hoops people jump through...

For the years of complaining about people quoting expected goals, let me present you with: Expected Trade Value



Ok, we have Klingberg, Reaves and Brodie, now what?

The cap is only valuable if people use it correctly.

How is it expected trade value on a future event when the value at the time of the trade was regarded heavily in the Flames favor?

Go open the main board thread or other threads?

If we were judging the deal based off the past alone, it would be a top 5 trade ever. 115pt winger

The trade at the time was being judged on what was the probable future performance of Huberdeau? Which I said was a ppg winger.

A trade has 2 facets. The immediate impact at the time of the trade where value is assessed based on assets changing places on trade date

And the final trade outcome based on future results which determine who ultimately won or lost the trade

If the leafs deal marner for a package around Forsberg + Carrier + 1st + or
Fiala + Clarke + 1st or
Kaprizov + Brodin + 1st

That would be viewed as a clear cut steal for the leafs at the day of the trade

Your getting wingers better (kaprizov) or 80/85% as good as Marner along with multiple other high end assets all while Marner has 1 year of control and a NMC.

Leafs would not expecr any of those 3 wingers to stop being 80-100 pt players.

The huberdeau extension was 1.5-2M overpay at the time, and now with his shit play its a good 5M overpay.

The trade ended uo being a failure ultimately, but it was well designed and one you would find success with more times than not

 

[notDatsyuk]

Marner career playoffs plus 10, Mathews plus 2, William plus 1, JT minus 9.

Marner is the best we have anyway.

And Willy playing mostly with the defensively brutal JT had no effect on his +/-.

 

[Racer88]

The Florida strat is to hit anything that moves.

Do we really think Mitch Marner would be able to perform in a series like that?

The Florida strat is to hit anything that moves.

Do we really think Mitch Marner would be able to perform in a series like that?

He would get destroyed. The one thing about that series is it is showing us how far away from an actual contender we really are.