Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Leafsfan74]

Never give out a contract you couldn’t move tomorrow if you need. That doesn’t mean lowball, but there should never be a NMC with these contracts. Limited 10 team trade is fine.

Absolutely. You not over overpay RFAs but given them a full NMC in the last year?

Its why I suspect that Dubas really did want to move some of the core before this kicked in. Instead, he was kicked out.

 

[ToneDog]

They did.

We can't make the same mistakes anymore.

Tre already overpaid 34, 88 and 64. The cows are out of the barn.

Absolutely. You not over overpay RFAs but given them a full NMC in the last year?

Its why I suspect that Dubas really did want to move some of the core before this kicked in. Instead, he was kicked out.

Marner for the last two years. LOL. What a Dubas.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Tre already overpaid 34, 88 and 64. The cows are out of the barn.


Marner for the last two years. LOL. What a Dubas.

I realize that but you aren't winning a Cup with two wingers > $11M/year cap on your team. There is still time to try something else.

 

[HockeyVirus]

The takes in this thread lmao

 

[Notsince67]

There you go skirting the question again and making it personal. I'll make it more clear, because you seem to be struggling with answering actual advanced stat questions.

This is an advanced stats professionals opinion on xgf% (not mine):



This is Marners xGF% with Matthews: 55.43%
This is Marners xGF% without Matthews: 46.73%
This is Matthews xGF% without Marner: 55.43%

Okay, now is the time to show your incredible advanced stats knowledge. What does this stat tell you?

Here is a tip. Gf and xgf are supposed to converge over time...all thing being equal. xgf% adds more error. If you are attempting to use short term xgf% at the expense of long term gf% to prove a player is crap, your analysis is crap.

 

[HolyCrap]

I am also very sick of it. I can happily quibble all day about who sucked more ass and who I still have some patience for, but I'd be completely fine with a full tear-down, bottom-out rebuild at this point because I had 10x more fun during the rebuild than the last two years of this core.

I agree. Most fans would too. Other than the Dubas Jock Junkies of course.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

I am also very sick of it. I can happily quibble all day about who sucked more ass and who I still have some patience for, but I'd be completely fine with a full tear-down, bottom-out rebuild at this point because I had 10x more fun during the rebuild than the last two years of this core.

Preach that shit all day baby.

At least we had no expectations back then. Is it better to be totally cockblocked and put in a chastity cage, or is it better to not deal with the bullshit at all while bettering yourself before getting out there? I'd take the latter, personally.

 

[Confucius]

Or they could sign at market value.

No way it’s the team 1st do all you can to help the team it’s the name on the front 1st

 

[rumman]

Never give out a contract you couldn’t move tomorrow if you need. That doesn’t mean lowball, but there should never be a NMC with these contracts. Limited 10 team trade is fine.

This should be non negotiable going forward for any player even if they have to get a little more money………..

Interesting on 590 when they interviewed Berube he characterized his conversation with Marner as excellent and said they're both excited, called him a great player.

“Bartender……whiskey, make it a double…………”

 

[rumman]

Whats exactly was interesting about it to you?

It's customary for coaches to reach out their players after being hired. Berube said he had reached out to most, prior to his press conference.

Gonna need more information on the interview:

1) What could Berube have done otherwise? Not call Marner because he doesn't think he will be on the team?

2) What's he supposed to say when these obvious questions are asked to him? "I didnt talk to him because he's going to he traded".

Remember Babs praising Phaneuf daily, until he was traded to Ottawa?

Not contacting Marner be it a tacky thing to do definitely would have sent a message what his future is with the Leafs, but I guess that’s the GM’s job………

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I’m past wondering why he doesn’t, but I agree. The two levers of Mitch-reality that make it doubtful he will stay are

He would have to accept this limitation, and stop with forcing plays in the playoffs, so at least he didn’t cost us

And

He would have to accept this affects his market value

I don’t think he can do either of those two things

I think he will want to be traded to a state without tax to temper over the fact he will not be making MLSE money any more. It's a good excuse for him when he re-signs for 10M or less by claiming he loves the city and there is no state tax. It would be too embarrassing for him to sign for that in a regular market IMO.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I am also very sick of it. I can happily quibble all day about who sucked more ass and who I still have some patience for, but I'd be completely fine with a full tear-down, bottom-out rebuild at this point because I had 10x more fun during the rebuild than the last two years of this core.

I felt so much better even in the tank Commander days because there was something that doesn't really exist anymore....hope.

 

[thewave]

This should be non negotiable going forward for any player even if they have to get a little more money………..


“Bartender……whiskey, make it a double…………”

NMC need to be banned from the league. They need out of sport entirely. All sports.

Should be like this. LNMC 10 teams list. LNMC 5 teams list for the team that drafted or first contracted the player to the league. That's the sweetener. List being for teams you agree to trade to.

 

[The Masters]

This should be non negotiable going forward for any player even if they have to get a little more money………..


“Bartender……whiskey, make it a double…………”

As of Friday night, the Toronto Maple Leafs have not approached Mitch Marner and his agent Darren Ferris about the 27-year-old’s contract or potentially waiving his no-movement clause. I still believe that discussion will occur at some point in the not-too-distant future, but as of now it hasn’t happened.

In speaking with those close to Marner’s camp, it remains clear his desire to stay in Toronto has not wavered. I’m told Marner’s preference and priority is to be with the Maple Leafs long-term. That’s his goal. Do the Maple Leafs feel differently? That is what management will discuss and debate internally.

I believe both parties understand what the ballpark looks like to getting an extension done. Those formal negotiations have not taken place, either, but the Leafs know what it will take to get Marner inked to a new deal. They must weigh the pros and cons, as they view it, and as Leafs President Brendan Shanahan repeatedly stated two weeks ago, “we will consider everything this summer.”

There is no doubt in my mind Marner will be extremely disappointed if the Maple Leafs opt for a change, and he is entirely within his right to hold firm and exercise his NMC. However, if the Maple Leafs decide they want to explore the trade market and ask Marner for a list of teams he would waive his NMC for, it is my understanding he will consider his options, as I reported earlier this month. Teams like Nashville, Vegas, Chicago and Dallas are just four clubs I would keep an eye on, if/when Leafs GM Brad Treliving goes shopping.

One thing to consider, if Toronto goes down this path, they will want to maximize a return, and MLSE isn’t afraid to flex their financial muscles and pay Marner’s upcoming $7.25 million bonus before finalizing a trade.

 

[Antropovsky]

Here is a tip. Gf and xgf are supposed to converge over time...all thing being equal. xgf% adds more error. If you are attempting to use short term xgf% at the expense of long term gf% to prove a player is crap, your analysis is crap.

..... gonna need more to work with. Can you be a little more detailed so everyone can understand what your exact opinion is? Are you afraid to be more detailed because others might critique your knowledge like you do to others?

So... let me see if I can try to make sense of what your saying.

Marners xgf% without Matthews are bad (I mean, you of course wouldnt admit this but it appears implied), however, you don't think they matter because they are short term xgf%? Lol

Please... don't be shy, the world needs to know your incredible advanced stats knowledge!

 

[Antropovsky]

..... gonna need more to work with. Can you be a little more detailed so everyone can understand what your exact opinion is? Are you afraid to be more detailed because others might critique your knowledge like you do to others?

So... let me see if I can try to make sense of what your saying.

Marners xgf% without Matthews are bad (I mean, you of course wouldnt admit this but it appears implied), however, you don't think they matter because they are short term xgf%? Lol

Please... don't be shy, the world needs to know your incredible advanced stats knowledge!

@Notsince67 where did you go? Are you feverishly researching advanced stats? I'm eagerly awaiting your response.

 

[bax]

Whats exactly was interesting about it to you?

It's customary for coaches to reach out their players after being hired. Berube said he had reached out to most, prior to his press conference.

Gonna need more information on the interview:

1) What could Berube have done otherwise? Not call Marner because he doesn't think he will be on the team?

2) What's he supposed to say when these obvious questions are asked to him? "I didnt talk to him because he's going to he traded".

Remember Babs praising Phaneuf daily, until he was traded to Ottawa?

I believe that poster is probably referring to the interview he did on Kyper and Bourne. It actually stood out to me too because if I recall correctly he said how he had spoken to pretty much the entire team but Marner was the only one he mentioned by name that he spoke to and did so more than once and he kept going on about what a great player he is. I found it interesting just how much he focused on him. Berube clearly understands the drama around Marner right now so it could be he's pumping his tires but it sounded a lot like he's excited to coach him this season. That's how I took it anyway.

 

[thewave]

I believe that poster is probably referring to the interview he did on Kyper and Bourne. It actually stood out to me too because if I recall correctly he said how he had spoken to pretty much the entire team but Marner was the only one he mentioned by name that he spoke to and did so more than once and he kept going on about what a great player he is. I found it interesting just how much he focused on him. Berube clearly understands the drama around Marner right now so it could be he's pumping his tires but it sounded a lot like he's excited to coach him this season. That's how I took it anyway.

Pumping the tires. Keeping trade value up. The usual.

 

[Racer88]

I believe that poster is probably referring to the interview he did on Kyper and Bourne. It actually stood out to me too because if I recall correctly he said how he had spoken to pretty much the entire team but Marner was the only one he mentioned by name that he spoke to and did so more than once and he kept going on about what a great player he is. I found it interesting just how much he focused on him. Berube clearly understands the drama around Marner right now so it could be he's pumping his tires but it sounded a lot like he's excited to coach him this season. That's how I took it anyway.

Unless he can get Marner to play harder ad grittier he is wasting his time.
I doubt dippsy doodling will impress Berube much

 

[DarkKnight]

Pumping the tires. Keeping trade value up. The usual.

Had nothing to do with that. Don’t be surprised if Berube wants to keep Marner and thinks he can elevate his performance. Bitter Leafs fans don’t represent the pro opinion of Marner, not saying he isn’t flawed, but the tire fire here is a low rent mirage.

It’s more money than liking the player or not.

 

[Notsince67]

@Notsince67 where did you go? Are you feverishly researching advanced stats? I'm eagerly awaiting your response.

Holy f***? You post this at 2am? Do you actually think I don't do things on a Saturday night?
You should be studying, not trying to page me for a lesson.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

..... gonna need more to work with. Can you be a little more detailed so everyone can understand what your exact opinion is? Are you afraid to be more detailed because others might critique your knowledge like you do to others?

So... let me see if I can try to make sense of what your saying.

Marners xgf% without Matthews are bad (I mean, you of course wouldnt admit this but it appears implied), however, you don't think they matter because they are short term xgf%? Lol

Please... don't be shy, the world needs to know your incredible advanced stats knowledge!

I'm no expert, and it's been a while since I read one of these expected goals papers, but from what I remember xgf% whipsaws around gf%.

Sometimes you're hot sometimes you're not. They don't necessarily converge. But the average of the one over the long term should be pretty close to the average of the other.

Matthews stats (NST) for example show this pretty clear.

Matthews career average gf% = (66.67 + 33.33 + 44.44 + 33.33 + 75 + 63.74 + 40 + 66.67)/8 = 54.135%

Matthews career average xgf% = (59.74 + 53.41 + 49.29 + 55.74 + 64.08 + 61.20 + 59.11 + 51.17)/8 = 56.7175%

Year to year differences are quite large in some cases but the long term average is pretty darn close.

I went with Matthews as the example because he's one of the league leaders in goals and shots every year so the sample size is quite large compared to, oh say, David Kampf.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

I'm no expert, and it's been a while since I read one of these expected goals papers, but from what I remember xgf% whipsaws around gf%.

Sometimes you're hot sometimes you're not. They don't necessarily converge. But the average of the one over the long term should be pretty close to the average of the other.

Matthews stats (NST) for example show this pretty clear.

Matthews career average gf% = (66.67 + 33.33 + 44.44 + 33.33 + 75 + 63.74 + 40 + 66.67)/8 = 54.135%

Matthews career average xgf% = (59.74 + 53.41 + 49.29 + 55.74 + 64.08 + 61.20 + 59.11 + 51.17)/8 = 56.7175%

Year to year differences are quite large in some cases but the long term average is pretty darn close.

I went with Matthews as the example because he's one of the league leaders in goals and shots every year so the sample size is quite large compared to, oh say, David Kampf.

xGF% as a predictor is always spot on.

Key word there is predictor. The issue with xGF% in the playoffs is that you're condensed to a 28 games max schedule.

You either scored or you didn't in the Playoffs. There's not going to be enough games for normalization.

 

[ToneDog]

Unless he can get Marner to play harder ad grittier he is wasting his time.
I doubt dippsy doodling will impress Berube much

Mitch should be watching Stankoven. Bieksa said that he tells his smaller 17 year olds that if you want success against the bigger players, you need to be really fast or really strong and fearless. Stankoven is all of the above.

 

[Nineteen67]

Mitch should be watching Stankoven. Bieksa said that he tells his smaller 17 year olds that if you want success against the bigger players, you need to be really fast or really strong and fearless. Stankoven is all of the above.

Marner should have been working on speed and, more importantly, his shot since the day he entered the NHL. His inability to shoot the puck from distance makes it a little easier to defend, especially in the playoffs.