Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Confucius]

I don't think any team is paying Marner $12.5 million per for 8 years...that's $100K short of MacKinnon money...he'll be lucky to even get the Nylander contract.

12.5 for 8 plus 1 for free so 9 years for 100 million. That is possible, it’s only a hundred grand a year more than he is getting now 5 years from now it will be cheap.

That is less than Nylander money, in real money his new club has to pay out.

 

[ToneDog]

12.5 for 8 plus 1 for free so 9 years for 100 million. That is possible, it’s only a hundred grand a year more than he is getting now 5 years from now it will be cheap.

That is less than Nylander money, in real money his new club has to pay out.

If Leafs wanted to be creative and it is allowed, they could retain some money to make it sweeter and get a larger return.

 

[Confucius]

If Leafs wanted to be creative and it is allowed, they could retain some money to make it sweeter and get a larger return.

We have no cap space now we really can’t take on more salary

 

[Superstar]

12.5 for 8 plus 1 for free so 9 years for 100 million. That is possible, it’s only a hundred grand a year more than he is getting now 5 years from now it will be cheap.

That is less than Nylander money, in real money his new club has to pay out.

Marner's not worth that $12.5 million cap hit and will also mess up the team's own internal salary structure. You pay him that much, every other player on the team will expect more.

 

[Arzak]

View attachment 865819

Daily reminder for Mitch

 

[William Johnson]

Had nothing to do with that. Don’t be surprised if Berube wants to keep Marner and thinks he can elevate his performance. Bitter Leafs fans don’t represent the pro opinion of Marner, not saying he isn’t flawed, but the tire fire here is a low rent mirage.

It’s more money than liking the player or not.

With respect, my read on Berube so far is quite different to this. I'd be very surprised if he wants to keep Marner and personally hope he doesn't. Berube has this week repeatedly said that his style of of hockey is to play 'north', to play a 'heavy' game where his players are hard on the puck and to play in straight lines. He stresses effort on every shift and aggressive forechecking. None of that sounds particularly suited to Marner. We don't have to take Berube's recent words for it, of course; the evidence is in the way his teams have played. I just don't see Marner adapting to that style, or even wanting to adapt, quite frankly. I'm fairly sure Berube hasn't been hired to adapt his style to fit our existing players, either.

I suspect his naming of Marner as someone he's spoken to is likely a reflection of his awareness of the current climate around the player. I also suspect when he was in discussions about taking the job, he will have gotten a firm sense from Treliving about his plans for Marner, whatever they may be. Along with the plans for a goalie and beefing up the defence, etc.

In terms of this tire fire you mention, while the vitriol around here is obviously uglier than you see in the media, I'm pretty confident in saying that, in general, most well-known pundits would say that Marner's days here are likely coming to an end. Many of the ones I pay attention to have been going on the record to say they think he needs to go. I agree.

Lastly, having said all that, except when it comes to Marner, I find myself agreeing with your posts for the most part. I can also understand why you might feel some of the more hyperbolic anti-Marner posts need a bit of push back. I partially agree with your statement that a lot of this is about the contract and not the player. It started there for me five years ago, certainly, with the 10.893 travesty. But it's not just the overpay -- I also think he's far, far too soft, particularly in the playoffs and therefore think that it's time for a change.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Player 1: 56 points in 61 games (75 point pace)
Player 2: 50 in 57 (72 point pace)

One is considered a playoff choker and ghost and the other is considered a playoff beast

Marner vs Tkachuk are the players

 

[Superstar]

Player 1: 56 points in 61 games (75 point pace)
Player 2: 50 in 57 (72 point pace)

One is considered a playoff choker and ghost and the other is considered a playoff beast

Marner vs Tkachuk are the players

Marner has choked the last 8 years, while Tkachuk is on the rise.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Marner has choked the last 8 years, while Tkachuk is on the rise.

They have both won the same amount of cups.

 

[Antropovsky]

Player 1: 56 points in 61 games (75 point pace)
Player 2: 50 in 57 (72 point pace)

One is considered a playoff choker and ghost and the other is considered a playoff beast

Marner vs Tkachuk are the players

... this is how I imagine Dubas made roster decisions.

 

[notbias]

Marner's not worth that $12.5 million cap hit and will also mess up the team's own internal salary structure. You pay him that much, every other player on the team will expect more.

Did you miss the Nylander extension? According to that, Marner is worth $12.5 million.

I would rather not pay him that, but Nylander's extension is Marner's floor.

$12.13 million is the equivalent of Nylander's new extension at $92.5 million.

 

[DarkKnight]

With respect, my read on Berube so far is quite different to this. I'd be very surprised if he wants to keep Marner and personally hope he doesn't. Berube has this week repeatedly said that his style of of hockey is to play 'north', to play a 'heavy' game where his players are hard on the puck and to play in straight lines. He stresses effort on every shift and aggressive forechecking. None of that sounds particularly suited to Marner. We don't have to take Berube's recent words for it, of course; the evidence is in the way his teams have played. I just don't see Marner adapting to that style, or even wanting to adapt, quite frankly. I'm fairly sure Berube hasn't been hired to adapt his style to fit our existing players, either.

I suspect his naming of Marner as someone he's spoken to is likely a reflection of his awareness of the current climate around the player. I also suspect when he was in discussions about taking the job, he will have gotten a firm sense from Treliving about his plans for Marner, whatever they may be. Along with the plans for a goalie and beefing up the defence, etc.

In terms of this tire fire you mention, while the vitriol around here is obviously uglier than you see in the media, I'm pretty confident in saying that, in general, most well-known pundits would say that Marner's days here are likely coming to an end. Many of the ones I pay attention to have been going on the record to say they think he needs to go. I agree.

Lastly, having said all that, except when it comes to Marner, I find myself agreeing with your posts for the most part. I can also understand why you might feel some of the more hyperbolic anti-Marner posts need a bit of push back. I partially agree with your statement that a lot of this is about the contract and not the player. It started there for me five years ago, certainly, with the 10.893 travesty. But it's not just the overpay -- I also think he's far, far too soft, particularly in the playoffs and therefore think that it's time for a change.

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

 

[Superstar]

They have both won the same amount of cups.

I'll take the player who helps his team to the finals last year and this year is still playing in the conference finals...you could keep Marner.

 

[notbias]

... this is how I imagine Dubas made roster decisions.

This is how our board evaluates players... points, nothing more, no critical thinking at all.

 

[nuck]

I get that...I was just speculating that what would happen if we didnt offer any of the core nmc when they got their contracts....would any of them have just said no and then leave? Does Nylander say no to 11.5 x 8 if it doesnt include a nmc? And if not then why are we handing them out like candy and putting ourselves in a tough spot in not being able to move any of them if we wanted?

I think Tre - after losing Tkachuk and Gaudreau, would possibly have been unable to play hardball so that is the question. Does WN take a limited NM the last couple of years ala Pasta? I say most definitely as there is no guarantee the sweet money and terms the Leafs gave were available anywhere else and it was out there he wanted to stick around. And yet here we are.

There is also a good chance that "run it back" Brendan said Willy only goes for a comparable talent coming back because he didn't value the cap space that much so Tre was handcuffed. Now Tre watched Guadreau and Huberdeau who both had Willy type career years but had more big seasons under their belts yet they still wilted back to a lesser level but the club paid as though this Willie was the established version. On Tre or on BS? We'll never know.

I think AM had more leverage for the NM clause this time around. I do believe the chance of a US club giving him "the stupid deal" was out there if he went to market. The Willie NMC was just bad GMing. He isn't Pasta, there was 500 games of evidence proving that, and he got a better deal.

Now the original deals are a different story IMO. KD had fantasies of a dominant long term Leaf's team and cap growth that would make his largesse immaterial. What does a no move cost when you have no intention of ever moving them? What do the signing bonuses matter when the club is rich enough to pay them without a blink?

 

[Notsince67]

xGF% as a predictor is always spot on.

Key word there is predictor. The issue with xGF% in the playoffs is that you're condensed to a 28 games max schedule.

You either scored or you didn't in the Playoffs. There's not going to be enough games for normalization.

Spot on to what? If you can't answer these questions, you shouldn't be using it.

This is how our board evaluates players... points, nothing more, no critical thinking at all.

You evaluate games played by players...not players.
This place is something else.

 

[Antropovsky]

Spot on to what? If you can't answer these questions, you shouldn't be using it.


You evaluate games played by players...not players.
This place is something else.

... your back on? Good weekend I hope.

Your piggy backing onto someone elses opinion now, but wouldnt probide your own opinion when asked earlier (remember you said you were busy lol)?

Can you expand on this above post that you piggy backed on about advanced stats? Give us more to work with, crunch some actual stats of players? Enlighten us, so we can form an opinion and respond.

Or you gonna keep acting like a stats wizard but then piggy back on others posts again? Your reluctance to post your knowledge referencing actual stats makes me think you really don't know very much about advanced stats. Yet so eager to criticise others.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

3 years ago - Mitch Marner is afraid to get hit.​

There’s no need to overanalyse why he was invisible all series. He’s afraid to get hit.

It was as obvious in the regular season, but in playoffs when all hits are finished, you really get to see it. This explains the five puck over glass penalties in the playoffs. He hears footsteps. Watch him go into the corner - he wins the foot race but then let’s the opposing player pick up the puck first.
I mean, it’s all well and good to play this way in the regular season - he is 165 pounds and all, so he’s trying to avoid injury. But in the playoffs, especially a game 7, you’ve got to take a hit to make the play.
That top line was completely useless all series because someone would throw the puck in the corner, and if Hyman wasn’t able to be the first on it and win the battle, it was an instant turnover.



3 years later nothing has changed except he now wants McDavid money.

Wow! That move looks familiar.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

They have both won the same amount of cups.

LOL.

 

[Antropovsky]

They have both won the same amount of cups.

Yup... apparently rounds no longer matter, it's cup or nothing.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Yup... apparently rounds no longer matter, it's cup or nothing.

57 years no Cup would have told you that

 

[Craig Button]

Player 1: 56 points in 61 games (75 point pace)
Player 2: 50 in 57 (72 point pace)

One is considered a playoff choker and ghost and the other is considered a playoff beast

Marner vs Tkachuk are the players

If Tkachuk played for the Leafs
He’d be a choker too.

 

[Gabriel426]

If Tkachuk played for the Leafs
He’d be a choker too.

Why do you say that?

 

[Stephen]

They have both won the same amount of cups.

Matthew Tkachuk has also won more playoff rounds in the last 30 days than Marner has in his entire NHL career.

 

[Enniskillen]

Player 1: 56 points in 61 games (75 point pace)
Player 2: 50 in 57 (72 point pace)

One is considered a playoff choker and ghost and the other is considered a playoff beast

Marner vs Tkachuk are the players

This post is so delusional. No wonder people love your posts on the mains.