Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Evilhomer]

Leafs don't have cap space to bring back Domi and Bertuzzi if they don't move Marner.

They easily do with Brodie and Samsonov coming off the cap. Whether it would be a good decision or not is a different story. If it were me, I would let Bertuzzi go.

 

[Confucius]

nice watching this Rangers Panthers series.

meaningful hockey.

don't remember when I watched a truly meaningful leafs game.

If he doesn't want to waive his NMC, and he starts the season on a tear, the vast majority of the fan base will love him again. Putting that aside, it's not inconceivable that management wants to give Berube the chance to coach all of them, so the team keeps Marner, brings back Domi and Bertuzzi, and simply waits out the year for Tavares' contract to expire. In that scenario, the available cap space goes to the defense and a goalie, and that's it.

The vast majority still want him on the team. This place is more militant than the average fan and less than 20% would boo him. Of the fans that actually go to games I’d think it would be less than 10%.

 

[Dayjobdave]

That's why he struggles every playoffs, and we're not even talking about later rounds when it gets even harder to play. I don't think he's serious about putting in the work and effort to winning in the playoffs...he cares more about making money, getting endorsements, and building his brand...how does one explain that he hasn't improved on his shot nearing a decade into his NHL career? How hard does he work on his training and game in the off-season? Not enough and not with the desire of someone who wants to win.

I’m past wondering why he doesn’t, but I agree. The two levers of Mitch-reality that make it doubtful he will stay are

He would have to accept this limitation, and stop with forcing plays in the playoffs, so at least he didn’t cost us

And

He would have to accept this affects his market value

I don’t think he can do either of those two things

 

[thewave]

The vast majority still want him on the team. This place is more militant than the average fan and less than 20% would boo him. Of the fans that actually go to games I’d think it would be less than 10%.

2000 people booing you may as well be 20000. Its pretty loud and creates a toxic atmosphere that risk adverse organizations like Bell and Rogers do not want spreading like a contagion.

First its 2000. Then its 3000. Then the player is more frustrated making more errors. Then its 6000. Then the comments start being directed at Bell Rogers for not dealing with it.

You can see hoe fires are best put out when small.

 

[Evilhomer]

…….. So basically you’re willing to accept ANOTHER 1st round exit next season?

It has nothing to do with me. I'm simply suggesting that management may want to bring this group back under a new coach. To be honest, it would fall in line with the conservative approach they have taken to everything else.

 

[thewave]

It has nothing to do with me. I'm simply suggesting that management may want to bring this group back under a new coach. To be honest, it would fall in line with the conservative approach they have taken to everything else.

How is a new coach going to stop a player from being scared? He does not go after pucks lol

 

[ToneDog]

It has nothing to do with me. I'm simply suggesting that management may want to bring this group back under a new coach. To be honest, it would fall in line with the conservative approach they have taken to everything else.

After virtually admitting that he no longer thinks you can win with this core, he would look like an even bigger fool if they bring them back. At that point, Pelley is also full of shit because it is about selling jerseys.

How is a new coach going to stop a player from being scared? He does not go after pucks lol

Shinny does not work in the playoffs, when the men show up and they play for keeps. Mitch is built to win All Star games and 3 on 3 OT.

 

[thewave]

After virtually admitting that he no longer thinks you can win with this core, he would look like an even bigger fool if they bring them back. At that point, Pelley is also full of shit because it is about selling jerseys.

Like him or hate him or think he is a weirdo, but Babcock was on to this with Marner. Remember what he said.

"Throw a ball in a group of children and the one who wants it most will get it"

Something like that. Marner has been bailing on plays and masking it with nifty passes for years. Some of us caught on years ago while other just bought the spin o rama.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I still remember when I thought of this core as Chicago. I legit thought multiple rings.

Then the Marner contract shit happened. Then everything died in the Montreal series.

Not that it's his fault, but in retrospect, the Tavares signing was the beginning of the end.

 

[Evilhomer]

How is a new coach going to stop a player from being scared? He does not go after pucks lol

I don't disagree. I'm just saying that I could see it happening because this management team has not really shown any tolerance for risk. Now, none of this accounts for the fact that Marner may simply not want to be traded and will refuse to waive, but I'm less inclined to believe that. I'm more inclined to believe that this management team (i.e., Treliving) may think "I want to see what my coach can do for these guys".

 

[thewave]

Not that it's his fault, but in retrospect, the Tavares signing was the beginning of the end.

More pointedly. The beginning of the end was the hiring of Kyle Dubas coming in with a radical unproven nuhockey philosophy which failed miserably.

 

[Evilhomer]

Like him or hate him or think he is a weirdo, but Babcock was on to this with Marner. Remember what he said.

"Throw a ball in a group of children and the one who wants it most will get it"

Something like that. Marner has been bailing on plays and masking it with nifty passes for years. Some of us caught on years ago while other just bought the spin o rama.

It sounds so silly, but that quote is honestly 100% true. For anyone who has kids and has watched their kids' sports teams play, you know that you can see right away which kid will be the best on the team, regardless of the sport. You can't teach intensity. Either someone has it, or they don't.

 

[ToneDog]

I don't disagree. I'm just saying that I could see it happening because this management team has not really shown any tolerance for risk. Now, none of this accounts for the fact that Marner may simply not want to be traded and will refuse to waive, but I'm less inclined to believe that. I'm more inclined to believe that this management team (i.e., Treliving) may think "I want to see what my coach can do for these guys".

The only way they bring them back is if they cannot get at least 75 cents on the dollar for Marner IMO.

At that point, I would reluctantly make him a take it or leave it offer but I think he would be insulted because it would not be close to Willie's deal for it to make sense for the Leafs.

 

[Evilhomer]

The only way they bring them back is if they cannot get at least 75 cents on the dollar for Marner IMO.

At that point, I would reluctantly make him a take it or leave it offer but I think he would be insulted because it would not be close to Willie's deal for it to make sense for the Leafs.

It's an all-around bad scenario is he comes back and plays out the final year of his contract here.

 

[ToneDog]

It's an all-around bad scenario is he comes back and plays out the final year of his contract here.

He could turn the fan base around but I doubt he can and will do what it takes to win in the playoffs

This guy is smaller than Mitch, makes 7% (800K) what Mitch does, and threw more hits last night than Mitch did in the Bruins series. He led the Panthers' forwards in SOG last night. What a joke.

 

[leafan11]

They easily do with Brodie and Samsonov coming off the cap. Whether it would be a good decision or not is a different story. If it were me, I would let Bertuzzi go.

No they don’t . Without moving a large contract leafs cannot bring Domi and Bert back. You are forgetting Nylander and Matthews extensions kick in.

 

[Notsince67]

#1 why are you acting like what Berkshire said in 2019 was a joke? His research and summary of what the advanced indicated about Marner was right on the money lol.

Thanks for bringing that up by the way. I think its importsnt to post it again because now more than ever we can see how accurate Berkshire was.

Berkshire in 2019: "Marner might be the most overrated player in the NHL"

I encourage everyone was to listen to Berkshire from 2019 here:




#2 Stats im referencing are from Natural Stat Trick. Check them out for yourself and report back to us what you find.

Also... it's free, so you can post them here and not worry about @ACC1224 questioning your ethics.

Citing debunked analytics from a guy with a guy who was laughed out of the analytics community just doubles down on dumb. You a flat earther too?

 

[Confucius]

After virtually admitting that he no longer thinks you can win with this core, he would look like an even bigger fool if they bring them back. At that point, Pelley is also full of shit because it is about selling jerseys.


Shinny does not work in the playoffs, when the men show up and they play for keeps. Mitch is built to win All Star games and 3 on 3 OT.

Man think about what you said. lol if fans are buying the jersey they want him.

 

[Notsince67]

According to Natural Stat Trick, when Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews are on the ice together in 5v5 play, their expected goals for percentage (xGF%) is 55.35%. However, Marner's xGF% drops to 46.37% when he plays without Matthews, indicating the opposition has a higher chance of scoring when hes out there with anyone but Matthews. In contrast, Matthews’ xGF% slightly improves to 55.43% without Marner. Indicating he remains dominant with anybody he plays, Marner doesn't move the needle upwards at all.

Before the Marner fans come out and say xGF% means nothing... doesnt matter what advanced stat I post, i get the same response from them. So i came with backup. @Notsince67 this is also for you, considering you questioned my advanced stats accumen. Don't take it from me, take it from an expert.

Here is a recent interview, where Mike Kelly of sportslogiq indicates that he values xgf% because it is more indicative of play and eliminates the variable of goaltending.


Question: What do you value more? GF% or xGF% or both, and why?
@MikeKellyNHL: Both are important. I place more value on expected goal differential in terms of understanding how well a player, a line or a team is playing from a process standpoint. This tends to affect GF% more than vice-versa. Over long samples, GF% will paint a fairly accurate picture but small sample, xGF% more indicative of play. It also eliminates the massive variable that is goaltending at both ends of the ice.

You want ME to weigh in on your interpretation of advanced stats? Quant isn't arithmetic. It is an analytical methodology. The obtuse need not apply because if I had a year, you wouldn't learn a thing based on your track record.

 

[ToneDog]

No they don’t . Without moving a large contract leafs cannot bring Domi and Bert back. You are forgetting Nylander and Matthews extensions kick in.

You need Brodie's money for another dman and Sammy's for another goalie. With the cap rising salaries will rise and we are already -2m after 34 and 88's raises. Seriously, how can anybody like this core of greedy, choker assholes?

 

[LeafGrief]

The vast majority still want him on the team. This place is more militant than the average fan and less than 20% would boo him. Of the fans that actually go to games I’d think it would be less than 10%.

I strongly doubt that the vast majority of Leafs fans want Marner back. Whether this place is militant or not, the tone has very obviously changed dramatically against Marner over the last two years. The two times I've gone on the Leafs subreddit the last month it's looked like they're just as angry at him as this place is. Casual fans takes are all over the place, some of them will love Marner, some of them will think that we should make Shayne Corson the coach, or try Kampf on defence. Can't really declare that everyone who doesn't post here wants to keep Marner.

The best evidence is probably that the media is talking about trading him. The media sells clicks, they're in the business of talking about what people want to hear.

 

[ToneDog]

I strongly doubt that the vast majority of Leafs fans want Marner back. Whether this place is militant or not, the tone has very obviously changed dramatically against Marner over the last two years. The two times I've gone on the Leafs subreddit the last month it's looked like they're just as angry at him as this place is. Casual fans takes are all over the place, some of them will love Marner, some of them will think that we should make Shayne Corson the coach, or try Kampf on defence. Can't really declare that everyone who doesn't post here wants to keep Marner.

The best evidence is probably that the media is talking about trading him. The media sells clicks, they're in the business of talking about what people want to hear.

Don't know about you but I'm sick and tired of these 3 assholes making all the money, not leaving a cent and sucking ass in the playoffs. They are me first players. Not the kind that are endeared by most Leafs fans. All 3 can GTFO for all I care.

 

[LeafGrief]

Don't know about you but I'm sick and tired of these 3 assholes making all the money, not leaving a cent and sucking ass in the playoffs. They are me first players. Not the kind that are endeared by most Leafs fans. All 3 can GTFO for all I care.

I am also very sick of it. I can happily quibble all day about who sucked more ass and who I still have some patience for, but I'd be completely fine with a full tear-down, bottom-out rebuild at this point because I had 10x more fun during the rebuild than the last two years of this core.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

It's one thing to run it back when you're the raps coming off a title, or the 2015 blue jays when the team was clearly a contender.

They don't deserve the contracts and haven't earned a 9th shot at it. It's not like we're maintaining excellence, we are maintaining failure and boosting free agent value who need lots of empty calorie points

Notice that we score 5 goals per game and in the playoffs we have to grind out 2-1 games?

Nobody should want to watch this a minute longer

 

[rumman]

You need Brodie's money for another dman and Sammy's for another goalie. With the cap rising salaries will rise and we are already -2m after 34 and 88's raises. Seriously, how can anybody like this core of greedy, choker assholes?

They’re fans of the players not if the team, I can’t wait until moves begin and we can put the last 6 years behind us……..