Mitch Marner Offseason Continued

[Dekes For Days]

There's this weird idea from some leaf fans that the secret to a cup is "patience". If we just "wait around" long enough, a cup will eventually fall into our laps.

Patience is incredibly important, and it's not about just waiting for things to fall into your lap. It's simply about recognizing that there are many factors that influence winning a cup, and that actively making your team worse by throwing away some of the best young players in the league, based on emotional, irrational reactions to small sample playoff results, is not how you fix whatever problems you think exist. That's the best way to guarantee you never win.

 

[ToneDog]

This year, that happens to be the goalies that are left. Other years, it's been completely different, as I showed. In fact, 3 of the last 5 cups have been won by a goaltender making 900k or less - the complete opposite extreme. The suggestion being extrapolated from the fact you posted is what is incorrect, not the fact itself. The overarching point being distracted from is that Campbell is not an issue.

Other than Binnington, who are the other 2 ?? Holtby, Vassy and Murray were all over $3m. Murray was at the minimum the first year they won but he formed a tandem with some guy named Fluery.

Cambell is fine as the backup. Assuming Campbell can carry the mail for a full season is risky.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Patience is incredibly important, and it's not about just waiting for things to fall into your lap. It's simply about recognizing that there are many factors that influence winning a cup, and that actively making your team worse by throwing away some of the best young players in the league, based on emotional, irrational reactions to small sample playoff results, is not how you fix whatever problems you think exist. That's the best way to guarantee you never win.

We're wasting prime Matthews years on an unprecedented experiment of half the cap on 4 forwards. The whole defense of this design plan was "The cap is going up big time due to new tv contracts and Seattle". Covid and the flat cap has ruined that. The unprecedented experiment of half the cap on 4 forwards needs to come to an end. "Patience" won't make this problem go away.

 

[ACC1224]

Leafs need to go on a long playoff run so we have a big enough sample size to know if they have what it takes to go on a long playoff run.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Other than Binnington, who are the other 2 ??

Murray won in 2016 and 2017. Binnington won in 2019.

Cambell is fine as the backup.

He may very well be the backup, but Campbell was just fine as a starter this year.

 

[Superstar]

Leafs need to go on a long playoff run so we have a big enough sample size to know if they have what it takes to go on a long playoff run.

To go on a long playoff run, your stars have to produce...increasing sample size just doesn't automatically happen.

 

[Trapper]

We're wasting prime Matthews years on an unprecedented experiment of half the cap on 4 forwards. The whole defense of this design plan was "The cap is going up big time due to new tv contracts and Seattle". Covid and the flat cap has ruined that. The unprecedented experiment of half the cap on 4 forwards needs to come to an end. "Patience" won't make this problem go away.

Yes this isn’t like the days of signing Crosby to a 13 year contract.
In 3 years both Matthews and Nylander are UFAs.
Rielly already is next year.
Patience? Remember that because we might just be rebuilding again.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The whole defense of this design plan was "The cap is going up big time due to new tv contracts and Seattle". Covid and the flat cap has ruined that.

The unforeseen circumstances that occurred after signing have necessitated more skillful maneuvering, but throwing away our best players does not help the situation.

 

[Bomber0104]

Leafs need to go on a long playoff run so we have a big enough sample size to know if they have what it takes to go on a long playoff run.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The unforeseen circumstances that occurred after signing have necessitated more skillful maneuvering, but throwing away our best players does not help the situation.

The question: How many 11 million dollar forwards is too much in a flat cap world? ONE other team has two that almost make 11 mil. Most teams don't even have ONE.

Would four 11 million dollar forwards be too much? Five? At what point do you need to react to the flat cap and trade one of those elite 11 million dollar forwards? Almost everybody would say 3 is too much. It's why no other team is designed such a way. Nobody "likes" this. We'd all rather the cap jump to 95 million. We'd all rather not hand out unprecedented dramatic overpayments. But the reality of the flat cap is three 11 million dollar forwards isn't working. And "patience" won't change that.

 

[ToneDog]

Murray won in 2016 and 2017. Binnington won in 2019.

He may very well be the backup, but Campbell was just fine as a starter this year.

Both Murray and Binnington were rookies breaking in and both the Blues and Pens had solid veteran backups.

Campbell is 29 and has not proven he can carry the mail for a season. He is fine if you are not expecting to go far. A regular 82 game regular season next year will not be your friend if you do not have two solid goalies.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The question: How many 11 million dollar forwards is too much in a flat cap world?

The point when you have an inability to create a reasonable roster around them. We do not have that issue.

 

[Dreakmur]

The unforeseen circumstances that occurred after signing have necessitated more skillful maneuvering, but throwing away our best players does not help the situation.

How much higher would the cap have been last year? 1 million higher, 1.5 million higher maybe?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Both Murray and Binnington were rookies breaking in and both the Blues and Pens had solid veteran backups.

I'm not sure how that's relevant, and again, you don't know who the other goalie here will be. Those goalies made 900k or less, and were the Cup-winning team's #1 goalie. The idea that you're screwed if your goalie isn't highly paid is not based in any fact. Campbell has been solid.

 

[Bomber0104]

The point when you have an inability to create a reasonable roster around them. We do not have that issue.

And what key performance metrics indicate what's "reasonable" and what isn't?

Things like playoff round wins and Cups right?

Team has exactly zero of those.

Doesn't sound like the surrounding roster is very "reasonable" at all with those key performance metrics in mind.

 

[Dekes For Days]

How much higher would the cap have been last year? 1 million higher, 1.5 million higher maybe?

The cap was going to be somewhere between 84.0m (+2.5m) and 88.2m (+6.7m) last year, prior to many of the factors that were going to be pushing it upward in the coming years.

 

[Dreakmur]

The cap was going to be somewhere between 84.0m (+2.5m) and 88.2m (+6.7m) last year, prior to many of the factors that were going to be pushing it upward in the coming years.

How much of that was supposed to be player inflation? That is what has caused this high escrow, which it sounds like the players didn't want to do anymore.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Doesn't sound like the surrounding roster is very "reasonable"

We were able to build a good surrounding roster this past year, without getting rid of our best players. We have even more maneuverability this coming year, as well as prospects becoming ready. There's no reason to trade Marner.

How much of that was supposed to be player inflation?

84.0m was the absolute floor with zero use of the inflator. 88.2m was with the maximum 5% inflator. Given how the NHLPA has used the inflator recently, we likely would have been looking at an ~85m cap, which would have continued to rise this offseason.

 

[Notsince67]

This TB comparison has gone on for awhile now and I dont understand it.

They currently have who many would consider the best defenceman in the league.
They currently have who many would consider the best goalie in the league.
They currently have who many would consider the best winger in the league.

We cant come anywhere close to saying that and the first two positions are extremely important especially in the playoffs.

They also get total buy-in from all their players, finish their checks consistently and dont take shortcuts to the puck.

We might be similar in that both teams have a nice amount of skill but the comparison ends pretty quickly after that.

Nobody really compares against that team.

 

[IPS]

It's interesting how he's escaped so much of the criticism, with just 1 point in each of the last two 7-game series.

Oh right on. Now that it's possible that Hyman won't be returning to the Leafs - is he now a new target for you to shit on and berate?

What was really more of a problem? The $22.5M worth of superstar power on that top line that combined for 1 goal or the complimentary piece of the line with a $2.25M salary who also had 1 goal?

 

[Crosscrease14]

The point when you have an inability to create a reasonable roster around them. We do not have that issue.

I see your point about patience. I don't think reactionary changes are good.

On the other hand you can't keep running back the same core with minor tweaks and expect new results. Not when they have yet to earn a playoff series win 5 years AFTER the rebuild.

It's insanity to keep doing the same thing and expect different results.

 

[egd27]

This year, that happens to be the goalies that are left. Other years, it's been completely different, as I showed. In fact, 3 of the last 5 cups have been won by a goaltender making 900k or less - the complete opposite extreme. The suggestion being extrapolated from the fact you posted is what is incorrect, not the fact itself. The overarching point being distracted from is that Campbell is not an issue.

So....that's a yes?

 

[Racer88]

This year in the playoffs it was a 2 fold problem
1- the cap incompetence of Dubas caused the team to fill in with lower cost lower skilled players.
2- Two of the highest paid players that have caused this imbalance failed to show up

 

[Bomber0104]

We were able to build a good surrounding roster this past year.

That couldn't win a single playoff round...

 

[Racer88]

That couldn't win a single playoff round...

And they show no signs of winning anything anytime soon