Mitch Marner Offseason Continued

[Dekes For Days]

Were the Leafs able to achieve that type of success, there were be a lot more grace given for an unexpected first round loss.

Not a chance; especially being swept after a season like that. People would be saying that they've had long enough to prove it, the core is faulty, the team is soft, the team doesn't care, they don't have what it takes to go all the way, etc. The same people advocating for trading Marner would be wanting to blow it up. As we have seen time and time again, that would be a horrible decision.

 

[ToneDog]

Dubas did a great job putting together the roster this past year.

You said we didn't have much in the pipeline. That's false.

Sounds like something that could hurt his linemates. Yet you're still lamenting the possibility of not re-signing him into his mid-30s...

He did not play at his pay grade, and really, his contract is irrelevant at that point. Expectations for him were much higher, and yet he escapes criticism. Because this isn't about properly evaluating how each player played. This is about people desperately searching for reasons to pile on Marner because of their misguided issues with his contract.

Good. Most teams should not be paying significant amounts for goalies. None of this changes the fact that Campbell played well. Our goalie is on a great contract. Oh no! The horror!

Dubas didn't create any cap hell. He's the one effectively navigating it.

Spin it any way you like, but I hate to break it to you, Leafs are not winning a cup with Soup as their #1. As well as he played he is no where close to the remaining 4 starting goalies.

 

[socko]

Maybe JT is better at creating space for his wingers than Matthews? Is there some sort of advanced stat that would show that?

Matthews creating space for his wingers? I see everyone trying to stop Matthews from shooting and often surrendering what would normally be considered high quality scoring chances for a NHL winger with regularity. He doesn't even have to try to create space for them, it creates itself based on advanced scouting.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And yet 3 of the top 5 AAV Goalies are still playing. Probably just a coincidence.

Yeah, and two of them were seen as immovable cap dumps this past offseason. In 2019, the winning goalie made 650k. In 2016 and 2017, the winning goalie made 900k. Goalies fluctuate a lot. Having a good goalie on a great contract is not a negative.

Leafs are not winning a cup with Soup as their #1.

Again, you don't know who the goalies will be, and there is literally zero basis to make that claim.

Cooper has said it many times.

Cooper playing the politician. Don't believe everything people say.

 

[Bomber0104]

"Effectively navigating" the salary cap of a perpetual 1st round / play-in series loser that's shedding 1st round picks year-after-year and can't afford to re-sign their own players..

 

[mclaren55]

Matthews creating space for his wingers? I see everyone trying to stop Matthews from shooting and often surrendering what would normally be considered high quality scoring chances for a NHL winger with regularity. He doesn't even have to try to create space for them, it creates itself based on advanced scouting.

Fair enough, I was posing a question, not making a statement.

 

[Stephen]

That's just simply not true. Again, the Leafs would have been torn apart if they were Tampa after being swept by Columbus that year, regardless of rounds they may have won a decade ago, and many of you who are advocating for moving Marner would have been advocating for moving Point. Hopefully Point's playoff performances since are helping you understand how misguided that is, and why you don't throw away young talents like Marner.

The Lightning were literally in the conference finals the year before the Columbus series with Brayden Point scoring at PPG at 21 years old. There’s no equivalency between a one year 4 game stumble from Tampa’s failure to a 5 year first round futility record nor would there be any urgency to trade a rookie player on ELC with that kind of production.

We are not the same construction as Tampa Bay. We don’t have Hedman on defense and we don’t have Vasilevskiy in net. Or frankly an entire functional supporting cast.

Interesting. So when it was Point doing that, that type of fact meant, and I quote, "a 21 year old on an ELC punching well above his weight and proving big game abilities right away. It's what makes him special." When it's Marner, it's "no significance". Hmm..

Brayden Point put up those numbers on a run to conference finals in his rookie year on a winning team. Took Marner 3 years to put up the same number of points.

 

[Thissiteisgarbage]

I call him "Mitch Million$"

 

[ToneDog]

I call him "Mitch Million$"

You are just jealous because he has made more money in SBs than you will in your lifetime

 

[egd27]

Yeah, and two of them were seen as immovable cap dumps this past offseason. In 2019, the winning goalie made 650k. In 2016 and 2017, the winning goalie made 900k. Goalies fluctuate a lot. Having a good goalie on a great contract is not a negative.

So are you are disputing that 3 of the top 5 goalie AAV are still playing?

BTW, having any good player on great contract not being a negative isn't really much of an insight.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Lightning were literally in the conference finals the year before the Columbus series

And the year before that, they didn't even make the playoffs. Fact is they hadn't won anything with their competitive team in a long time, and had just experienced one of the worst losses of the modern era. You know as well as I do that beating New Jersey the year before would not have been consolation. You know as well as I do that the Leafs would be torn apart after that Columbus series, if it had happened to us. You know as well as I do that many of the people advocating for trading Marner would have done the same type of thing with a player like Point. That clearly would have been a horrible decision, just like trading Marner would be.

We are not the same construction as Tampa Bay.

We're a lot closer than you seem to think.

Brayden Point put up those numbers on a run to conference finals in his rookie year on a winning team.

That was not his rookie year, he was 22 years old. Team results are irrelevant to your statement, which was discussing individual contributions, and what that meant. You praise Point for doing something, at an older age, in a way more favourable situation, and suggest it proves that he's special and has "big game ability", yet when Marner did something even more impressive through the same number of games to start his career, you claim it has "no significance". You're being incredibly inconsistent.

 

[Bomber0104]

We're a lot closer than you seem to think.

At what point did Tampa pay 4 players half the salary cap and then proceed to lose all of their next two 1st round matchups (including blowing a 3-1 series lead) while also shedding 1st round picks and losing key players to free agency due to cap constraints?

You seem to know a lot about Tampa so maybe you can fill me in on when that happened.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So are you are disputing that 3 of the top 5 goalie AAV are still playing?

No, that clearly isn't what I said. I said that two of those three goalies were seen as immovable cap dumps less than a year ago, which helps show how much fluctuation there is in goaltending results, and how risky it is to pay goaltenders massive amounts. I also pointed out that many of the recent cup-winning goalies were on some of the smallest cap hits in the league, showing that your goalie having a low cap hit doesn't mean you can't win.

BTW, having any good player on great contract not being a negative isn't really much of an insight.

Tell that to the people complaining about it.

 

[socko]

I call him "Mitch Million$"

I don't care what we call him other than ex-Leaf. I like the ring of that.

 

[egd27]

As you're well aware, you responded to a portion of my post, with that fact, to suggest something that is not true. I provided explanation and examples showing the issues with that conclusion, and supported why investing massively into goaltending is risky. The overarching point is that Campbell is not an issue.

So you agree with my original post that 3 of the top 5 AAV Goalies are still playing ?

 

[Menzinger]

And yet 3 of the top 5 AAV Goalies are still playing. Probably just a coincidence.

Though this season seems a bit of an outlier. It is worth noting for most of the last decade cup winners tended to spend less than 6 mil on their starter.

 

[weems]

This TB comparison has gone on for awhile now and I dont understand it.

They currently have who many would consider the best defenceman in the league.
They currently have who many would consider the best goalie in the league.
They currently have who many would consider the best winger in the league.

We cant come anywhere close to saying that and the first two positions are extremely important especially in the playoffs.

They also get total buy-in from all their players, finish their checks consistently and dont take shortcuts to the puck.

We might be similar in that both teams have a nice amount of skill but the comparison ends pretty quickly after that.

 

[egd27]

Though this season seems a bit of an outlier. It is worth noting for most of the last decade cup winners tended to spend less than 6 mil on their starter.

Sure, it's an outlier.
But it's also worth noting that most teams spend less than $6M on their goalie so that's more likely to happen.

 

[ToneDog]

Though this season seems a bit of an outlier. It is worth noting for most of the last decade cup winners tended to spend less than 6 mil on their starter.

Guessing we will be spending less than $6m on our top 3 goalies. Hope one of them is Ken Dryden re-incarnated.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So you agree with my original post that 3 of the top 5 AAV Goalies are still playing ?

This year, that happens to be the goalies that are left. Other years, it's been completely different, as I showed. In fact, 3 of the last 5 cups have been won by a goaltender making 900k or less - the complete opposite extreme. The suggestion being extrapolated from the fact you posted is what is incorrect, not the fact itself. The overarching point being distracted from is that Campbell is not an issue.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Not a chance; especially being swept after a season like that. People would be saying that they've had long enough to prove it, the core is faulty, the team is soft, the team doesn't care, they don't have what it takes to go all the way, etc. The same people advocating for trading Marner would be wanting to blow it up. As we have seen time and time again, that would be a horrible decision.

There's this weird idea from some leaf fans that the secret to a cup is "patience". If we just "wait around" long enough, a cup will eventually fall into our laps.

People can point to examples where "patience" DID pay off (like Tampa)... but it's ignored that for every Tampa, there's countless teams that correctly gave up on an underproducing core... or even held onto an underproducing core for far longer than they should have.

This team won ZERO playoff rounds... and we still gave it another year after losing to (lol) Columbus in round one. Dekes is acting like we'd be LESS patient if the core had already won FOUR playoff rounds. It's an insane argument.

 

[ShaneFalco]

We're close guys - the 4 first round exits and total and embarrassing collapses prove it. The core just needs to actually compete when it matters and not play like they're afraid of getting hurt. They also need to address an abysmal PP (hello Mitch), and learn to ramp it up in the playoffs. They do at times, but then when the going gets tough (ie game 7's) they fold like a cheap tent.

You can't have 11 million tied up in Mitch and need a GM who realizes that (won't be Dubas).
And here we are, some still making excuses for them

 

[ShaneFalco]

Maybe JT is better at creating space for his wingers than Matthews? Is there some sort of advanced stat that would show that?

How about AM has a winger who everyone knows is looking to pass. And another who is a grinder. They key on AM as the other two aren't feared in the least to score.
Plus the word on Mitch is just hit him hard; the same could probably be said for 3/4 of the team

 

[Throw More Waffles]

We're close guys - the 4 first round exits and total and embarrassing collapses prove it. The core just needs to actually compete when it matters and not play like they're afraid of getting hurt. They also need to address an abysmal PP (hello Mitch), and learn to ramp it up in the playoffs. They do at times, but then when the going gets tough (ie game 7's) they fold like a cheap tent.

You can't have 11 million tied up in Mitch and need a GM who realizes that (won't be Dubas).
And here we are, some still making excuses for them

To be fair, nobody's really making excuses for them any longer.

Spanning the entirety of hfboards and the leafs subreddit, dekesfordays is the only person still defending this as far as I can tell.

Two first round exits to "fringe" playoff teams. It's time for significant changes, not bandaids. And almost everybody now see's it.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I think most have stated how early on Marner was possessed during the playoffs. The last two years though he has fallen off. Bringing up examples from when he was playing well is irrelevant to what has occurred in recent memory.

He's worth the 11 mill because a few years back he was decent in the playoffs