Mitch Marner discussion continues

[Stephen]

I'll stand by what I said. Flip the stats with Marner and Nylander these playoffs and you're not invading every Marner and Nylander thread with every 2nd post saying it's just all luck.

Willie also has an elite shot. You have to be good at something to be lucky sometimes.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Watching the Habs on this run has made me hate Marner even more for losing us this series. Seeing how Winnipeg and Vegas played this was the easiest road to the Stanley cup final we ever could have had. Marner cost us a trip to the Stanley Cup final for the first time since 1967.

 

[Notsince67]

I'll stand by what I said. Flip the stats with Marner and Nylander these playoffs and you're not invading every Marner and Nylander thread with every 2nd post saying it's just all luck.

Gtfo with the strawman arguments. If that is all you got, I'll take it as a grudging acceptance that it was luck.

 

[hamzarocks]

Watching the Habs on this run has made me hate Marner even more for losing us this series. Seeing how Winnipeg and Vegas played this was the easiest road to the Stanley cup final we ever could have had. Marner cost us a trip to the Stanley Cup final for the first time since 1967.

We would have played Tampa if we ever beat the Jets.

Tampa in 4 over the leafs. They'd absolutely murder us on the scoresheet

 

[IPS]

Gtfo with the strawman arguments. If that is all you got, I'll take it as a grudging acceptance that it was luck.

Yeah - luck, definitely. Just like Brayden Point has shot a stunning 23.4% through his playoff career (61 game sample size believe it or not).

Way better than Marner. Just luck though, right?

 

[Stonehands1990]

Yeah - luck, definitely. Just like Brayden Point has shot a stunning 23.4% through his playoff career (61 game sample size believe it or not).

Way better than Marner. Just luck though, right?

The advanced stats crowd always defaults to the “luck” argument. They don’t understand why the numbers behave the way they do

Defensive pressure and goaltending position are the biggest factors of shooting %. But they think shooters just forgot how to shoot because those 2 things aren’t measure by xG

 

[Notsince67]

The whole organization is walking the plank anyway if this doesn’t get back on track, so to appeal to their authority is a moot point.

Well...the best thing might be that the team fails early next season. The problem is that it might also mean that they are learning to play a different system. Most here would not be able to tell the difference in approach....so we are left with 3 possibilities.
1. The leafs doubledown on the same approach with some changes excluding the core. The leafs play strong regular season hockey and you have a chunk of the fanbase that get sucked in again and a bulk of the fanbase who will be highly skeptical and negative.
2. The leafs change the system they are playing with some changes excluding the core. They suffer early in performance much like the isles did in the first year of their dynasty run. Some fans will support the team but some will go postal yet again because the lack of immediate success will be proof positive that the leafs have done nothing....in their eyes.
3. The leafs dont change their system but make some changes excluding the core. They suck bad.

With 3...maybe core and management changes will occur early.
With 2...changes in the style of hockey and the structure of lines will give many of us hope.
With 1, there will be an ever increasing shift towards skepticm from those who are currently not in the burn the house down group. At the end of the year, a fail will leave a huge crater. 3 is better because ripping a bandaid quickly hurts less.

I'm all about 2.

 

[Notsince67]

Yeah - luck, definitely. Just like Brayden Point has shot a stunning 23.4% through his playoff career (61 game sample size believe it or not).

Way better than Marner. Just luck though, right?

You think 1 in 4 is normal?

 

[IPS]

The advanced stats crowd always defaults to the “luck” argument. They don’t understand why the numbers behave the way they do

Defensive pressure and goaltending position are the biggest factors of shooting %. But they think shooters just forgot how to shoot because those 2 things aren’t measure by xG

Correct.

It also happens to be that guys who show up and play their best hockey in the playoffs will just so happen to shoot well above their career average in SH%.

Mackinnon too for example - who was an absolute demon these playoffs - shot 21%. It wasn't luck, he just showed up determined and hungry.

 

[IPS]

You think 1 in 4 is normal?

Yeah you're gonna need to be capable of looking at the bigger picture of things if you wanna keep up in this conversation pal.

 

[Notsince67]

Correct.

It also happens to be that guys who show up and play their best hockey in the playoffs will just so happen to shoot well above their career average in SH%.

Mackinnon too for example - who was an absolute demon these playoffs - shot 21%. It wasn't luck, he just showed up determined and hungry.

I really hope Tampa gets into the final to see if your hypothesis come true against playoff Price then.

 

[Koolboss]

Well...the best thing might be that the team fails early next season. The problem is that it might also mean that they are learning to play a different system. Most here would not be able to tell the difference in approach....so we are left with 3 possibilities.
1. The leafs doubledown on the same approach with some changes excluding the core. The leafs play strong regular season hockey and you have a chunk of the fanbase that get sucked in again and a bulk of the fanbase who will be highly skeptical and negative.
2. The leafs change the system they are playing with some changes excluding the core. They suffer early in performance much like the isles did in the first year of their dynasty run. Some fans will support the team but some will go postal yet again because the lack of immediate success will be proof positive that the leafs have done nothing....in their eyes.
3. The leafs dont change their system but make some changes excluding the core. They suck bad.

With 3...maybe core and management changes will occur early.
With 2...changes in the style of hockey and the structure of lines will give many of us hope.
With 1, there will be an ever increasing shift towards skepticm from those who are currently not in the burn the house down group. At the end of the year, a fail will leave a huge crater. 3 is better because ripping a bandaid quickly hurts less.

I'm all about 2.

4 - We stop watching this garbage team

 

[Bluelines]

IMO, he stood out because the others were a non factor. Agreed he was more engaged but he also had the flybys he’s been known for as well as the over the glass penalty to avoid contact that seems to have been attributed to Marner. For the most part he looked like a 7 million dollar player, problem is the 11 million dollar players didn’t.

He was able to stand out because the best checking line in the playoffs was busy shutting down Mitch and Matthews. He kinda had free reign out there to just do his thing.

 

[Notsince67]

Yeah you're gonna need to be capable of looking at the bigger picture of things if you wanna keep up in this conversation pal.

Only in your fantasy land does Point shoot 1 in 4 against Kerry Price in the playoffs...pal

 

[Notsince67]

4 - We stop watching this garbage team

Some of us have watched far shittier teams over decades.

 

[IPS]

Only in your fantasy land does Point shoot 1 in 4 against Kerry Price in the playoffs...pal

Why fantasy land?

Marner replicated his 0% shooting against a red hot Korpisalo last year whereas Point had no issues at cracking him.

Hell even Nylander managed to get a couple by him too.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The advanced stats crowd always defaults to the “luck” argument. They don’t understand why the numbers behave the way they do

Defensive pressure and goaltending position are the biggest factors of shooting %. But they think shooters just forgot how to shoot because those 2 things aren’t measure by xG

They refer to it cause Dubas himself has declared analytics to be 35% based on pure luck .. it gives Dubie a good "out" with Shanny when he talks injuries .. it all fits into his model .. i think analytics are in their infancy (even Dubie admits that fact) and what these guys are doing/measuring today should be radically different in a few years in hockey .. it is not a field to give up on but recognize it is still 20 years away .. same sh*t occurred in baseball but years earlier

 

[JT AM da real deal]

We would have played Tampa if we ever beat the Jets.

Tampa in 4 over the leafs. They'd absolutely murder us on the scoresheet

likely 6 games with everyone back .. Tampa likes to play us straight up and Vasi always has 1 brutal game in a series

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

You think 1 in 4 is normal?

Point is definitely an abnormally good performer in the playoffs. Unfortunately, Marner is an abnormally bad playoff performer

 

[IPS]

Point is definitely an abnormally good performer in the playoffs. Unfortunately, Marner is an abnormally bad playoff performer

Oh are you not familiar with the rules of Marner debates?

We shit on his linemates for shooting terrible percentages cause they couldn't fluff up his point totals but we also discredit goal totals from other lines because they just got lucky.

 

[IPS]

likely 6 games with everyone back .. Tampa likes to play us straight up and Vasi always has 1 brutal game in a series

Yikes I don't like the sounds of that... don't tell me he's gonna blow it against the Islanders tonight.

 

[keonsbitterness]

4 - We stop watching this garbage team

I watched a 52 point Leafs team finish second last in the league, qualify for the playoffs due to the NHL's dumb playoff system, and, as I sat in the Greys, lose 8-0 to Detroit in a playoff game. THAT was a garbage team.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Oh are you not familiar with the rules of Marner debates?

We shit on his linemates for shooting terrible percentages cause they couldn't fluff up his point totals but we also discredit goal totals from other lines because they just got lucky.

how many good passes did Marner even make to Matthews? My recollection is that every chance Matthews had was either set up by himself or from Hyman (or that good play by Holl). Which is at least understandable, since Montreal's entire gameplan for dealing with the top line was to stop Marner from passing to Matthews and having Matthews score. But while Matthews adjusted by becoming a pass first player and setting up Hyman and Marner for all kinds of good chances, Marner just couldn't make Montreal pay for daring him to take all the shots he wanted

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Yikes I don't like the sounds of that... don't tell me he's gonna blow it against the Islanders tonight.

It could happen he has a history of it .. if he is off early then it will be all Isles .. once he is off he never gets it back together .. Tampa will come out hard and if Isles hold them off then look for an Isles win

 

[Gallagbi]

Yikes I don't like the sounds of that... don't tell me he's gonna blow it against the Islanders tonight.

He wasn't exactly great last game